SMART International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure: Next generation infrastructure implications of autonomous vehicles and transport automation

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A presentation conducted by Professor Ram Pendyala, Transport Systems, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University, United States of America. Presented on Tuesday the 1st of October 2013 Rapidly evolving vehicular technologies, including the advent of driverless and connected vehicles, are likely to have far-reaching implications on the design, development, provision, and financing of infrastructure in the future. There is widespread interest in and debate on the possible impacts that autonomous vehicles will have on peoples activity travel patterns, location choices, vehicle ownership, and use of time.At the same time, ubiquitous mobile technologies and rapidly evolving communication systems have provided the ability to access information any time anywhere, and to obtain instantaneous feedback on the financial, temporal, energy, carbon, and health impacts of the full range of travel choices that may be exercised by users of the transport infrastructure.The gradual penetration of driverless and connected vehicles into households and business fleets over a period of time will necessitate the adaptation of existing infrastructure to deal with a mixed fleet of autonomous and manually controlled vehicles on the transition to a fully automated transportation system.This presentation focuses on the scenarios that may play out on the path to transport automation and the implications of the different scenarios on the design and provision of infrastructure. The presentation will draw a distinction among various emerging vehicular technologies, consider market penetration scenarios, identify the range of behavioral choices and outcomes that may result from the ownership of such vehicles, and assess the sustainability implications of emerging vehicles. While driverless vehicles may ease the stress of driving, enhance safety, reliability, and capacity utilization, and allow travelers to use travel time productively, many of these benefits do not necessarily come without costs.The convenience afforded by such technologies may lead to dramatic shifts in work and home location choices that result in larger vehicle miles of travel which will in turn have implications from energy, environmental, and infrastructure provision perspectives. This presentation includes a discussion of the multitude of perspectives that must be considered in planning for a driverless transportation system of the future.This presentation is the result of a collaboration between Professor Pendyala and Professors Brad Allenby and Mikhal Chester

Transcript

  • Monday, 30th September 2013: Business & policy Dialogue

    Tuesday 1 October to Thursday, 3rd October: Academic and Policy Dialogue

    www.isngi.org

    ENDORSING PARTNERS

    The following are confirmed contributors to the business and policy dialogue in Sydney:

    Rick Sawers (National Australia Bank)

    Nick Greiner (Chairman (Infrastructure NSW)

    www.isngi.org

    Next generation infrastructure implications of

    autonomous vehicles and transport automation

    Presented by: Professor Ram Pendyala, Transport Systems, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University, United States of America

  • Next Generation Infrastructure Implications of Autonomous Vehicles and

    Transport Automation

    October 1-4, 2013; Wollongong, Australia International Symposium on Next Generation Infrastructure

    Ram M. Pendyala School of Sustainable Engineering & the Built Environment

    Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ

  • Drivers of Travel Demand

    Growth in Income Knowledge

    Specialization in Employment

    Consumption

    Social relationships

    Time use

    Growth in Person Travel Commerce

    Communication

    Time

    Source: Polzin (2010)

  • Mobility Aspirations

    I cant wait to cancel my trip for the family reunion

    and move to a small condo downtown

    Im not going to Disney. Im going to stay home and watch the Disney Channel on the Big

    Screen

    First thing Im going to do is sell my big pickup

    truck and go for a walk

    Source: Polzin (2010)

  • Connected vehicle research addresses a suite of technologies and applications that use wireless communications to provide connectivity: Among vehicles of all types Among vehicles and a

    variety of roadway infrastructures

    Among vehicles, infrastructure, and wireless consumer devices

    Connected Vehicle Research

    An initiative of the USDOT Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office

  • Connected Vehicle Research

  • A Connected Vehicle

    Data Sent from the Vehicle

    Real-time

    location, speed, acceleration,

    emissions, fuel consumption, and vehicle

    diagnostics data

    Improved Powertrain

    More fuel efficient powertain including; hybrids, electric vehicles, and other alternative power sources

    Data Provided to the Vehicle

    Real-time traffic

    information, safety messages, traffic signal messages,

    eco-speed limits, eco-routes, parking information, etc.

    Source: USDOT

  • Autonomous (Self-Driving) Vehicle Google cars have

    successfully driven 500,000 miles

    Set 2018 as expected release date for self-driving car

  • Autonomous (Self-Driving) Vehicle

  • Levels of Vehicle Automation Level 0: No automation Level 1: Function-specific Automation

    Automation of specific control functions, e.g., cruise control Level 2: Combined Function Automation

    Automation of multiple and integrated control functions, e.g., adaptive cruise control with lane centering

    Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation Drivers can cede safety-critical functions; not expected to

    monitor roadway constantly

    Level 4: Full Self-Driving Automation Vehicles perform all driving functions and can operate without

    human presence or intervention

  • Government Recognition Several states in the US passed legislative initiatives to

    allow self-driving cars to navigate roadways California, Nevada, and Florida

    National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration Policy Statement Policy guidance on licensing, safety, testing

    Autopilot Systems Council in Japan Citymobil2 initiative in Europe

  • Motivation for Automated Driving

    Source: Bartels, 2013

  • Infrastructure Provision Increasingly complex activity-travel patterns Growth in long distance travel demand Limited availability of land to dedicate to transport

    infrastructure Budget/fiscal constraints Energy and environmental concerns Information and communication technologies (ICT) and

    mobile platforms can be leveraged Autonomous vehicles leverage technology to greatly

    increase flow without the need to expand capacity

  • Mobility Implications Infrastructure considerations tied to potential impacts

    of transport automation on mobility (people and freight) Safety enhancement

    Virtual elimination of driver error (primary factor in 80 percent of crashes)

    Enhanced vehicle control, positioning, spacing, and speed harmonization

    How about offsetting behavior on part of drivers? Need to eliminate possibility of offsetting behavior

    No drowsy drivers, impaired drivers, stressed drivers, or aggressive drivers

    Reduced number of incidents and network disruptions

  • Mobility Implications Capacity enhancement

    Vehicle platooning greatly increases density (reduced headways) and improves flow at transitions

    Vehicle positioning (lateral control) allows reduced lane widths and utilization of shoulders; accurate mapping critical

    Optimization of route choice, passage through intersections, and navigation through and around work zones

    Energy and environmental benefits Increased fuel efficiency and reduced pollutant emissions through

    vehicle operation improvement Clean-fuel vehicles Car-sharing provides additional benefits

  • Per Capita VMT Trend in USA

    7,500

    8,000

    8,500

    9,000

    9,500

    10,000

    10,500

    0

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2,500,000

    3,000,000

    3,500,00019

    9019

    9119

    9219

    9319

    9419

    9519

    9619

    9719

    9819

    9920

    0020

    0120

    0220

    0320

    0420

    0520

    0620

    0720

    0820

    09

    Per C

    apita

    Ann

    ual V

    MT

    Tota

    l VM

    T (0

    00,0

    00)

    p p

    VMT

    VMT per capita

  • Location Choices Live and work farther away

    Use travel time productively Access more desirable and higher paying

    job Attend better school/college

    Visit destinations farther away Access more desirable destinations for

    various activities

    Increased demand for infrastructure

  • Activity-Travel Choices Undertake more

    activities (and trips) resulting in induced travel demand Reduced disutility

    of travel Positive utility of

    travel

    Increased demand for infrastructure

    0 A

    B

    C D Travel Time

    Travel Disutility

  • Mode Choice Driving personal vehicle more convenient and safe Finding parking space no longer onerous Traditional transit captive market segments now able to

    use auto (e.g., elderly, disabled) Reduced reliance/usage of public transit However, autonomous vehicles may present an

    opportunity for public transit Reliable transit service Lower cost of operation (driverless) More personalized service - smaller vehicles providing demand-

    responsive transit service

  • Vehicle Ownership Choice Potential to redefine vehicle ownership

    No longer own personal vehicles; move towards car sharing enterprise where rental vehicles come to traveler

    More efficient vehicle ownership and sharing scheme may reduce the need for additional infrastructure Reduced demand for parking

    Desire to work and be productive in vehicle Use personal vehicle for long distance travel Desire large multi-purpose vehicle with amenities to work and

    play in vehicle Increased demand for infrastructure

  • Vehicle Ownership Choice

  • Commercial Vehicle Operations

    Enhanced efficiency of commercial vehicle operations

    Driverless vehicles operating during off-peak and night hours reducing congestion

    Reduced need for infrastructure

  • Mixed Vehicle Operations Uncertainty in pace of technology availability,

    affordability, and adoption (market penetration rate) Need for mixed vehicle operations for considerable

    amount of time Infrastructure that accommodates both manual and

    automated vehicles Intelligent infrastructure with dedicated lanes for

    driverless cars Managed lanes offer opportunity to accommodate self-driving

    vehicles (dedicated technology-equipped lanes)

  • Smarter Infrastructure

    Source: http://www.foreveropenroad.eu/

  • Traveler Still Makes Choices Infrastructure use largely driven

    by user (departure time choice, origin-destination travel patterns, trip chaining)

    Provide information to traveler with incentives to bring about behavioral modification

    Combine driverless car technology with traveler information to optimize infrastructure utilization

  • Infrastructure Impacts Several opposing forces, making determination of net

    impacts uncertain Collect data and conduct focus groups to understand

    possible behavioral impacts with infrastructure implications Recognize inter-dependent infrastructure systems

    Information and communications technology, power, transport Less need for centralized control

    Vehicles serve as decentralized nerve centers communicating with one another

    Implement new backup systems to safeguard against failure/hacking

  • Thank You

    Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Mobility AspirationsConnected Vehicle ResearchConnected Vehicle ResearchA Connected VehicleAutonomous (Self-Driving) VehicleAutonomous (Self-Driving) VehicleLevels of Vehicle AutomationGovernment RecognitionMotivation for Automated DrivingInfrastructure ProvisionMobility ImplicationsMobility ImplicationsPer Capita VMT Trend in USALocation ChoicesActivity-Travel ChoicesMode ChoiceVehicle Ownership ChoiceVehicle Ownership ChoiceCommercial Vehicle OperationsMixed Vehicle OperationsSmarter InfrastructureTraveler Still Makes ChoicesInfrastructure ImpactsThank You

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