Approaches to Baseline: Overview

David J. Ganz, PhDForest Carbon Science Team

Overview of Session

• How success is to be measured • Reductions in baseline emissions

should be recognized and able to be credited.

• “Business as usual” (bau) projections are used to define an expected Reference Emission Level (RELs) or “baselines”

• Three methods for establishment of “business as usual” scenarios.

Baseline: how is it determined?

Historic– Based on an analysis of past images;– Based on other statistics (population,

income)

Modeled – Regression analysis from predictive

variables

Negotiated– Baselines, whether based on historic data

or models of the future, will be decided in a political negotiation process

Historic vs. Modeled BaselinesE

mis

sion

s

Time

Project Implementation

T=0

Historic Baseline

Modeled Baselines

With project

Baseline Projection – Project Development Cycle

Additionality• estimate emissions

avoided with change from bau

3Scoping

• project area• strategies

1

• standards

Baseline

• area change

• bau projection

• emissions factors

2

• reference region

MRV (ante)

• monitoring plan• reporting (PDD)

5

• validation & …registration

• reporting• verification

• monitoring

MRV (post)

6Transact Credits

Buffers &Discounts

• leakage estimate

• permanence estimate

4

ImplementProject

• nesting

Alternatives for Projecting Business as Usual Scenarios (or

REL)….

HistoricalMean • Simple trend analysis)

Historical (with adjustments)

Forward Looking

Simple Complex

• Drivers & vulnerability analysis (internal vs. external)

• Spatially explicit modeling

Nested RELs

National Scale

Sub-National Scale

Project ScaleDo methods change with scale?

Review Key Steps - Nested Approach

1. Agree upon national REL according to standard in a future international agreement or bilateral agreement

2. Delineate reference regions for accounting

3. Establish a REL for each region using historical data and where possible, modeling future deforestation and degradation

4. Negotiate with national government to ensure that the sum of the regions’ RELs adds up to the national REL.

Key Questions for Nested Approaches

• Same monitoring systems used at all levels?

• Reference region for projects same as sub-national accounting scale?

• Same standards used at all scales?• Political feasibility?

• Too complicated – needs to be understandable by governments/ civil society

• Too much of a black box – RELs might actually go down as you get less deforestation.

Alternatives for Projecting Business as Usual Baseline

Scenarios….

HistoricalMean (or simple trend analysis)

Historical (with adjustments)

Forward Looking

Simple Complex

“Planned” (e.g. legal license

to log/convert)

• Drivers & vulnerability analysis (internal vs. external)

• Spatially explicit modeling

Examples:LCMGeomodSimAmazonia

• Capabilities to measure forest biomass at national or regional scales still very limited

• Significant technological advancement in remote sensing capacity needed

• Significant ground truthing of remotely sensed imagery needed

• Carbon stocks of different forest ecosystems worldwide poorly known

• Reliance on default values

Measurement challenges

Conclusions - REL

Scale matters – – from project to sub-national to national– nesting framework

Simplicity matters– rigorous and credible while minimizing

the level of admin/accounting complexity.

Equity and transparency matters– Transparent negotiating process – Social and environmental safeguards

• Tradeoffs with credibility and rigor