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As the SNP gathers for its first conference s a majority government, Ipsos MORI looks at the rise in support for the party in recent times and considers key challenges for the future.
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Voting intention
After securing a majority in the Scottish Parliament, the SNP has a commanding lead in our latest poll
28%
13%
7%
49%
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
SNP
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
Others – 3%
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
May-07
2008 Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
May-11
Aug-11
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
49%
3%
The party’s share of voting intention has increased steadily over the last six years
28%
13%
Scottish Parliament ElectionResult
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone
7%
Scottish Parliament ElectionResult
Source: Ipsos MORI
54%
45%
41%
45%
52%
50%
23%
32%
35%
33%
28%
24%
13%
12%
13%
12%
6%
18%
8%
7%
7%
9%
5%
6%
Women
18-24
25-34
35-54
Men
55+
SNP Labour Lib Dem Conservative
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
SNP support is higher among men and older people
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
49%
51%
51%
48%
47%
32%
13%
29%
33%
22%
11%
17%
6%
8%
23%
5%
13%
6%
8%
4
Rural
Working
Not working
Urban
Retired
SNP Labour Lib Dem Conservative
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
It is also stronger among those in work
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
1215
37
11
20
1115
1812
6
MaleFem
ale
18-24
25-34
35-54
55+
Working
Not work
ingReti
red
Urban
Rural
Over the last 18 months, the SNP has gained support across all groups – particularly among older people
Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, February 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
Percentage point change since February 2010 (+/-)
Satisfaction with Alex Salmond
Almost two thirds of Scots are satisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister
28%
9%
62%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
SatisfiedDissatisfied
Don’t know
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister?
62%
30%
26%
35%
28%
61%
62%
49%
His satisfaction rating is considerably higher than any of the other main UK party leaders
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
David Cameron
Ed Milliband
Satisfied Dissatisfied
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/leader of the Labour party?
Source: Ipsos MORI
Net satisfaction
Nick Clegg
-31
-36
-14
+34Alex Salmond
The First Minister’s satisfaction rating is consistently strong and has never been higher
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11
Alex Salmond Willie Rennie Ed Milliband David Cameron Nick Clegg
% satisfied
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone
17%
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister of Scotland/Leader of Scottish Liberal Democrats/leader of the Labour
Party/Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI
Tavish Scott
Willie Rennie
62%
Ed MillibandGordon Brown
35%30%26%
34 45 5290
58 47 36 6
Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters
Satisfaction is highest among SNP supporters but is also drawn from other parties’ voters
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister of Scotland?
Source: Ipsos MORI
% Satisfied % Dissatisfied
65 60 71 60 62 60 61 65
28 29 19 21 31 31 27 27 32 30 27
636361
MenW
omen
18-24
25-34
35-54 55
+
Work
ingNot
working
Retired
Urban
Rural
The First Minister is popular across all groups
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister of Scotland?
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
% Satisfied % Dissatisfied
15 1825
13 1219 16 15
2115
19
MaleFem
ale
18-24
25-34
35-54
55+
Working
Not work
ingReti
red
Urban
Rural
Over the last 18 months, Alex Salmond has gained support across all groups – particularly young people
Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, February 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
Percentage point change since February 2010 (+/-)
Important issues
31%
26%
20%
17%14%
12%
9%
7%
7%
33%
The economy and unemployment are currently the most important issue facing Scots
Education/schools
Economy/economic situation
Unemployment/factory closure/ lack of industry
NHS/hospitals/health care
Immigration/immigrants (race relations)
Crime/law and order/ASB
Sectarianism
Q. What do you see as the most important issue facing Scotland today?Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Scotland today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
(Most + others)
Scottish independence/devolution
Housing
Public spending cuts
SNP supporters
37%
32%
21%
29%
12%
14%10%
8%
8%
19%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011
Independence has increased in importance since the Scottish Parliament elections
NHS 17%
Education 26%
Crime 14%
Economy 33%
Unemployment 31%
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone
Q. What do you see as the most important/other issue facing Scotland today?
Source: Ipsos MORI
Public sector cuts 20%
Independence 12%
Economic optimism
22%
32%
42%
Scots are slightly more optimistic about the prospects for the Scottish economy than they are for the UK economy
18%
30%
49%
UK economy Scottish economy
Base: All asked about UK economy (508); all asked about Scottish economy (494) Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Improve
Stay the same
Worsen
Don’t know, 2%
Improve
Stay the same
Worsen
Don’t know, 4%
Optimism has dipped slightly since April, though it is not as low as this time last year
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11
UK economy Scotland's economy% Net
improve
-31%
-20%
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone (half were asked about UK economyand half about Scottish economy) Source: Ipsos MORI
UK General Election Comprehensive Spending Review
Scottish budget
approved
Scottish Parliament
Election
2815 15 24
48 53 44 33
Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters
SNP supporters are least pessimistic about the Scottish economy
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)
Source: Ipsos MORI
% Improve % Worsen
Independence
The majority of Scots back more powers for the Scottish Parliament
All
8%
26%
66%
All who are certain to vote
Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011Source: Ipsos MORI
Disagree
Agree
Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with the proposal:
Undecided/Don’t know
5%
28%
67%
Disagree
Agree
Undecided/Don’t know
68 66 74 72 66 57 68 64 68 62
28 29 19 23 29 31 28 1837 26 32 27 34
756964
MaleFem
ale
18-24
25-34
35-54 55
+
Working
Not work
ingReti
red
Most d
epriv
edLe
ast d
epriv
ed
Urban
Rural
Support for more powers is higher among younger people
Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with the proposal:
Source: Ipsos MORI
% Support % Oppose
However, only around a third of Scots support full independence
All
7%
58%
35%
All who are certain to vote
Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011Source: Ipsos MORI
Disagree
Agree
Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:
Undecided/Don’t know
5%
60%
35%
Disagree
Agree
Undecided/Don’t know
38 3148
32 34 2945
25 35 32
58 6349
65 59 62 6245
6752
70 61 61
493333
MaleFem
ale
18-24
25-34
35-54 55
+
Work
ingNot
working
Retire
d
Most d
epriv
edLe
ast d
epriv
ed
Urban
Rural
Support for independence is higher among young people and those living in more deprived areas
Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:
Source: Ipsos MORI
% Support % Oppose
Q. And, how likely would you be to vote in a referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means would be absolutely to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
7463
4958
7176
7060
71
6372
6771
MenWomen
18-2425-3435-54
55+
WorkingNot working
Retired
Most deprivedLeast deprived
UrbanRural
However, those groups are less likely to vote in a referendum
Certain to vote in a referendum(%)
Source: Ipsos MORI Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
Just under half of those who would vote yes to more powers, would also vote yes to independence
50%
44%
Base: All supporting more powers and certain to vote (458). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+,25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
Support independence
Oppose independence
Undecided (6%)
Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:
Those supporting first proposal
60%
40%
The majority of SNP supporters would vote yes to both questions
83%
17%
Full fiscal powers Independence
Base: All voting SNP in Scottish Parliament election (414). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+,25-29 August 2011
Q. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:
Source: Ipsos MORI
Support
OpposeSupport
Oppose
The majority of Scots would like the referendum to be held earlier than the SNP plans
27%
37%
6%
28%
Base: All certain to vote = 68% (703).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
As soon as possible
Within the next 2 years
Between 2 and 5 years from now
Never/shouldn’t be held
Don’t know – 3%
Q. When do you think the referendum should be held?
55%
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