Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - October 2014

POLITICAL MONITOR

October 2014

Contacts:

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020 7347 3000

Voting Intentions

3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those

“certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -5

All giving a voting intention: 78%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

29%

34%

8%

17%

12%

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014, all certain to vote = 628

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

All certain to vote: 60%

Conservative lead = -3

30%

33%

8%

16%

13%

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ja

n-0

4

Apr-0

4

Ju

l-04

Oct-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Apr-0

5

Ju

l-05

Oct-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Apr-0

6

Ju

l-06

Oct-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Apr-0

7

Ju

l-07

Oct-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Apr-0

8

Ju

l-08

Oct-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Apr-0

9

Ju

l-09

Oct-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Apr-1

0

Ju

l-10

Oct-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Apr-1

1

Ju

l-11

Oct-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Apr-1

2

Ju

l-12

Oct-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Apr-1

3

Ju

l-13

Oct-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Apr-1

4

Ju

l-14

Oct-1

4

33%

8%

30%

16%

2005 General Election

Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)


Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through October 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting Intentions January ‘04 – October ‘14

(all certain to vote)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their

intention to vote? January ‘08 to October ‘14

% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”



Labour Conservative

71% 69%

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through October 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

Satisfaction with the Coalition

and Party Leaders

7

55

62

59

43

60

38

25

25

39

31

Net Satisfaction

Swing from September

2014

-17 -1

-37 +4

-34 -2.5

-4 +0.5

-29 -4.5

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th October 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %

“dissatisfied”

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister

/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Ed Miliband

% Satisfied

% Dissatisfied

Nigel Farage


8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-0

8

Ap

r-08

Ju

l-08

Oct-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ap

r-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-10

Oct-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-11

Oct-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-12

Oct-1

2

Jan-1

3

Ap

r-13

Ju

l-13

Oct-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ap

r-14

Ju

l-14

Oct-1

4

25% % s

ati

sfi

ed

Cameron

Clegg

General Election

38%

Miliband 25% Brown

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Satisfaction with Party leaders January ‘08 – October ‘14

Farage 39%

9

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

THATCHER

BLAIR MAJOR

BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to October 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from October 2008 was via telephone

10

38%

55%

7%


David Cameron (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?


Satisfied

Dissatisfied

October 2014

Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -17

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th October 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

October 2006 – October 2014

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 231 Conservative supporters 18+, 11th -14th October 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron

(satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?

83%

14%

3% Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +69 Note: Data collected prior to October 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from October 2008 was via telephone

October 2006 – October 2014 October 2014

12


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders

(1994 – 2014)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)


Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

13


Number of months from

becoming Opposition

Leader


(Labour)


BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone

Ne

t s

ati

sfa

cti

on

CALLAGHAN

(1979-1980) SMITH (1992-1994)

FOOT (1980-1983)

KINNOCK

(1983-1992)

14

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

*Thatcher data starts in March 1977 (i.e. 25 months after becoming Conservative leader) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from

becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN

SMITH (2001-

2003)


(Conservatives)


CAMERON (2005-2010)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)

Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone

Ne

t s

ati

sfa

cti

on

THATCHER*

(1975-1979)

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ed Miliband (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?


Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014

Dissatisfied

Satisfied



Dissatisfied

25%

59%

17%

Net = -34

16

42%

46%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 270 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 14th October 2014

Ed Miliband

(satisfaction among Labour supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

October 2014

Net = -4


Dissatisfied


Dissatisfied

Satisfied


17 Nick Clegg (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Dissatisfied

Satisfied


25%

62%

13%


Dissatisfied

Net = -37


18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 69 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 11th – 14th October 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2014

48%

39%

13% Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +9

Nick Clegg

(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?




19

39%

43%

18%

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK

Independence Party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014

All


Dissatisfied

Net = -4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

March 2013 – October 2014

20

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK

Independence Party?

Nigel Farage

(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)

Base: 139 UKIP supporters, 11th -14th October 2014.

91%

4% 5%

UKIP supporters

Satisfied

Don’t know Dissatisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

March 2013 – October 2014

Net = +87

The economy

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct-

04

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Ja

n-0

6A

pr-

06

Ju

l-0

6O

ct-

06

Ja

n-0

7A

pr-

07

Ju

l-0

7O

ct-

07

Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Ju

l-0

8O

ct-

08

Ja

n-0

9A

pr-

09

Ju

l-0

9O

ct-

09

Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

Ju

l-1

0O

ct-

10

Ja

n-1

1A

pr-

11

Ju

l-1

1O

ct-

11

Ja

n-1

2A

pr-

12

Ju

l-1

2O

ct-

12

Ja

n-1

3A

pr-

13

Ju

l-1

3O

ct-

13

Ja

n-1

4A

pr-

14

Ju

l-1

4O

ct-

14

Economic Optimism Index

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?


Improve

Stay the same

Get worse Improve

Don’t know

Get worse

Stay the same

October 2014

EOI = +12

37%

31%

25%

6%


23

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Ja

n-9

7A

pr-

97

Ju

l-9

7O

ct-

97

Ja

n-9

8A

pr-

98

Ju

l-9

8O

ct-

98

Ja

n-9

9A

pr-

99

Ju

l-9

9O

ct-

99

Ja

n-0

0A

pr-

00

Ju

l-0

0O

ct-

00

Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Ju

l-0

1O

ct-

01

Ja

n-0

2A

pr-

02

Ju

l-0

2O

ct-

02

Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Ju

l-0

3O

ct-

03

Ja

n-0

4A

pr-

04

Ju

l-0

4O

ct-

04

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Ja

n-0

6A

pr-

06

Ju

l-0

6O

ct-

06

Ja

n-0

7A

pr-

07

Ju

l-07

Oct-

07

Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Ju

l-0

8O

ct-

08

Ja

n-0

9A

pr-

09

Ju

l-0

9O

ct-

09

Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

Ju

l-1

0O

ct-

10

Ja

n-1

1A

pr-

11

Ju

l-1

1O

ct-

11

Ja

n-1

2A

pr-

12

Ju

l-1

2O

ct-

12

Ja

n-1

3A

pr-

13

Ju

l-1

3O

ct-

13

Ja

n-1

4A

pr-

14

Ju

l-1

4O

ct-

14

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-56 -48

+23

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

Ind

ex

(g

et

be

tte

r m

inu

s g

et

wo

rse)

-64


+12

+34

UKIP

25 The utility of voting UKIP

Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with the following statement…


“…a vote for UKIP in a general election is a wasted vote”

41%

36%

30%

16%

14%

11%

7%

6%

7%

19%

20%

24%

14%

21%

24%

2%

3%

4%

May 2014

September2014

October 2014

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

33% 57%

48% 41%


41% 50%

Party conferences: the policies

27 Support for the parties’ tax policies

Please tell me to what extent, if at all, you support or oppose the following policies

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 501 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014

Increasing the amount people can

earn before they pay income tax

from £10,000 to £12,500 per year

36%

41%

40%

64%

25%

22%

24%

21%

7%

9%

10%

5%

14%

12%

12%

5%

16%

14%

10%

4%

2%

1%

4%

2%

Strongly support Tend to support Neither support nor opposeTend to oppose Strongly oppose Don't know

Increasing the amount people can

earn before they pay the higher

tax rate of 40% from £40,000 to

£50,000 per year

A tax to be charged each year to

owners of homes worth more than

£2 million

Increasing the tax rate from 45%

to 50% for earnings over

£150,000 per year

30% 61%

26% 63%

22% 64%

9% 85%

28

41%

15%

41%

15%

16%

15%

16%

15%

7%

15%

7%

15%

19%

15%

19%

15%

14%

15%

14%

15%

2%

15%

2%

15%

Strongly support Tend to support Neither support nor oppose Tend to oppose Strongly oppose Don't know

38%

37%

37%

58%

21%

21%

22%

26%

6%

7%

7%

4%

15%

14%

16%

5%

16%

17%

13%

5%

4%

4%

5%

2%

Strongly support Tend to support Neither support nor oppose Tend to oppose Strongly oppose Don't know

Support for the parties’ tax policies, with the

parties named

Please tell me to what extent, if at all, you support or oppose the following policies


The Liberal Democrats’ and Conservatives’

policy of Increasing the amount people can

earn before they pay income tax from £10,000

to £12,500 per year

The Conservatives’ policy of increasing

the amount people can earn before they

pay the higher tax rate of 40% from

£40,000 to £50,000 per year

The Liberal Democrats’ and Labour’s

policy of charging a tax to each year to

owners of homes worth more than £2 million

Labour’s policy of increasing the tax rate

from 45% to 50% for earnings over

£150,000 per year

10% 84%

59% 29%

58%

59%

31%

31%

Base: 501 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014

29 Who should get the credit for raising the tax-free

allowance?

As you may know, the amount people earn before they pay income tax has risen from £6,475 in 2010 to £10,000 from this April.

Who, if anyone, do you think deserves most credit for this policy, the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats?


18%

28%

33%

26%

45%

41%

March 2014

October 2014

March 2014

October 2014

March 2014

October 2014

Liberal Democrats

Conservatives


Don’t know

News & Politics

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - October 2014