Ipsos MORI Political Monitor July 2016

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIJuly 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2

VOTING

INTENTIONS

3Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in

General Elections = 764. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is

an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

Voting Intention

33%

38%

8%

4%

10%

7%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -5 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

36%

35%

8%

4%

11%

6%


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


21%

37%

42%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

24%

69%

7%

-7.5%swing from June 2016

-8%swing from June 2016

-1.5%swing from June 2016

-9%swing from June 2016

-38 Net -41 Net -16 Net -45 Net

SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 21% SATISFIED 24%

DISSATISFIED 66% DISSATISFIED 65% DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 69%

28%

66%

6%

24%

65%

11%

David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS

JOB AS … ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Satisfaction with Party leaders May 2010 – July’16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

2014

2014

2015

2015

2015

2015

2015

2015

2016

2016

2016

2016

CAMERON CORBYN FARRON

28%

24%

21%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY / AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction)

28%

66%

6%

July 2016 May 2006 –July 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

May-0

6

Sep

-06

Ap

r-07

Au

g-0

7

Jan

-08

May-0

8

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May-0

9

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May-1

0

Oct

-10

Feb

-11

Jun

-11

Oct

-11

Feb

-12

Jun

-12

Oct

-12

Feb

-13

Jun

-13

Oct

-13

Feb

-14

Jun

-14

Oct

-14

Feb

-15

Jun

-15

No

v-1

5

Mar-

16

Jul-

16


SATISFIED 28%

DISSATISFIED 66%

DON’T KNOW 6%

Net = -38

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


60%

36%

4%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 292 Conservative supporters Base 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

July 2016 May 2006 –July 2016


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

May 0

6

Oct

06

May 0

7

Sep

07

Feb

08

Jun

08

Oct

-08

Feb

-09

Jun

-09

Oct

-09

Feb

-10

Jun

-10

Jan

-11

May-1

1

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May-1

2

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May-1

3

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May-1

4

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Oct

-15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

SATISFIED 60%

DISSATISFIED 36%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +24

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


24%

65%

11%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

SATISFIED 24%

DISSATISFIED 65%

DON’T KNOW 11%

Net = -41

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?


Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

July 2016 September 2015 – July 2016


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


45%

48%

7%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

SATISFIED 45%

DISSATISFIED 48%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -3

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 310 Labour supporters Base 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


21%

37%

42%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

SATISFIED 21%

DISSATISFIED 37%

DON’T KNOW 42%

Net = -16

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Tim Farron (satisfaction)


Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


23%

16%57%

4%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jun

-04

Sep

-04

Dec-

04

Mar-

05

Jun

-05

Sep

-05

Jan

-06

Ap

r-06

Jul-

06

No

v-0

6A

pr-

07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Feb

-08

May-0

8A

ug

-08

No

v-0

8Feb

-09

May-0

9A

ug

-09

No

v-0

9Feb

-10

May-1

0Sep

-10

Dec-

10

Mar-

11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

Dec-

11

Mar-

12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec-

12

Mar-

13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec-

13

Mar-

14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

rl-1

6Ju

l-16

IMPROVE 23%

STAY THE SAME 16%

GET WORSE 57%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = -34

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

July 2016


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jul 1998

No

v 1

998

Mar

1999

Jul 1999

No

v 1

999

Mar

2000

Jul 2000

No

v 2

000

Mar

2001

Jul 2001

No

v 2

001

Mar

2002

Jul 2002

No

v 2

002

Mar

2003

Jul 2003

No

v 2

003

Mar

2004

Jul 2004

No

v 2

004

Mar

2005

Jul 2005

No

v 2

005

Mar

2006

Jul 2006

No

v 2

006

Mar

2007

Jul 2007

No

v 2

007

Mar

2008

Jul 2008

No

v 2

008

Mar

2009

Jul 2009

No

v 2

009

Mar

2010

Jul 2010

No

v 2

010

Mar

2011

Jul 2011

No

v 2

011

Mar

2012

Jul 2012

No

v 2

012

Mar

2013

Jul 2013

No

v 2

013

Mar

2014

Jul 2014

No

v 2

014

Mar

2015

Jul 2015

No

v 2

015

Mar

2016

Jul 2016

-34


EUROPE


NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER

OR WORSE FOR EACH OF FOLLOWING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?


Impact of Brexit on economy and standard of living

18%

21%

39%

55%

26%

38%

46%

39%

11%

11%

15%

9%

29%

36%

35%

24%

49%

49%

7%

4%

16%

11%

9%

5%

Britain’s economy over the next five

years

Britain’s economy over the

next ten to twenty years

Your own standard of living

May ‘16

May ‘16

May ‘16

July ‘16

July ‘16

July ‘16

BETTER

MAKES NO

DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW


NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER

OR WORSE FOR EACH OF FOLLOWING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?


Impact of Brexit on other issues

BETTER

MAKES NO

DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW

59%

59%

19%

31%

29%

32%

32%

32%

15%

16%

32%

24%

31%

33%

34%

27%

20%

21%

43%

42%

34%

31%

26%

36%

7%

4%

7%

4%

8%

5%

8%

5%Britain’s public services

Britain’s national security

Britain’s influence in the world

May ‘16

May ‘16

May ‘16

July ‘16

July ‘16

July ‘16

Britain’s ability to make decisions in its

own best interestsMay ‘16

July ‘16


AND NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK THE NUMBER

OF … COMING TO THE UK WILL BE HIGHER OR LOWER THAN IF BRITAIN HAD VOTED TO REMAIN, OR

WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?


Impact of Brexit on immigration numbers

5%

4%

9%

3%

51%

41%

17%

32%

13%

17%

5%

3%

Immigrants from countries outside the EU

EU immigrants

A LOT HIGHER A LITTLE HIGHER

IT WILL MAKE NO

DIFFERENCE A LITTLE LOWER A LOT LOWER DON’T KNOW


THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER


ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER

Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016

Potential Prime Ministers?

18%

21%

21%

23%

55%

15%

5%

15%

6%

10%

51%

70%

40%

68%

27%

17%

4%

24%

3%

7%

Andrea Leadsom, Conservative MP and Minister of

State for Energy

Boris Johnson, Conservative MP and former London

Mayor

Angela Eagle, Labour MP and former Shadow

Secretary for Business, Innovation and Skills

Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour party

Theresa May, Conservative MP and Home Secretary

Agree Neither / nor Disagree Don’t know






21%

23%

15%

6%

40%

68%

24%

3%

Angela Eagle, Labour MP and former Shadow

Secretary for Business, Innovation and Skills

Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour party







18%

21%

55%

15%

5%

10%

51%

70%

27%

17%

4%

7%

Andrea Leadsom, Conservative MP and Minister of

State for Energy

Boris Johnson, Conservative MP and former London

Mayor

Theresa May, Conservative MP and Home Secretary




AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE

CONSERVATIVE PARTY BY AUTUMN THIS YEAR. WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM

GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY

IF THEY WERE LEADER?

Base: 1,021 British adults;292 Conservative supporters 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016

Next Conservative leader

8%

22%

55%

13%

5%

2%

82%

10%

Don't know

Neither

Theresa May

Andrea Leadsom

ALL

CONSERVATIVE

SUPPORTERS



PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING

STATEMENT:

THE LABOUR PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase:; 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016

Labour Party leadership change?

30

50

12

16

21

6

12

10

19

15

6

3

October 2015

July 2016

STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE

NEITHER AGREE

NOR DISAGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE DON’T KNOW

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

27

July 2016POLITICAL MONITOR

News & Politics

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor July 2016