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Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor indicates that George Osborne has taken a firm lead over Ed Balls as most capable Chancellor in the eyes of the public, having been neck-and-neck in August. Four in ten (40%) see Mr Osborne as the more capable Chancellor, an eleven percentage point lead over Mr Balls (29%). In August they were tied, with Mr Osborne on 36% and Mr Balls on 35%.
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POLITICAL MONITOR December 2013
Contacts: [email protected] [email protected]@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
Voting Intentions
3Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -7
All giving a voting intention: 81%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
32%
39%
10%
8%11%
Base 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9h December 2013, all certain to vote = 578
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 54%
Conservative lead = -4
33%
37%
9%
10%
11%
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04S
ep-04D
ec-04M
ar-05Jun-05S
ep-05D
ec-05M
ar-06Jun-06S
ep-06D
ec-06M
ar-07Jun-07S
ep-07D
ec-07M
ar-08Jun-08S
ep-08D
ec-08M
ar-09Jun-09S
ep-09D
ec-09M
ar-10Jun-10S
ep-10D
ec-10M
ar-11Jun-11S
ep-11D
ec-11M
ar-12Jun-12S
ep-12D
ec-12M
ar-13Jun-13S
ep-13D
ec-13
37%
Howard elected (Nov 03)
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
9%
33%
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions September ‘03 – December ‘13(all certain to vote)How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
10%
Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
6
52
57
54
38
58
39
28
29
33
32
Net satisfaction
Swing from November
2013
-13 +4
-29 +7
-25 -1
-5 +4
-25 +3
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th - 9th December 2013. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the GovernmentHow satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08Feb-08M
ar-08A
pr-08M
ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A
ug-08S
ep-08O
ct-08N
ov-08D
ec-08Jan-09Feb-09M
ar-09A
pr-09M
ay-09Jun-09Jul-09A
ug-09S
ep-09O
ct-09N
ov-09D
ec-09Jan-10Feb-10M
ar-10A
pr-10M
ay-10Jun-10Jul-10A
ug-10S
ep-10O
ct-10N
ov-10D
ec-10Jan-11Feb-11M
ar-11A
pr-11M
ay-11Jun-11Jul-11A
ug-11S
ep-11O
ct-11N
ov-11D
ec-11Jan-12Feb-12M
ar-12A
pr-12M
ay-12Jun-12Jul-12A
ug-12S
ep-12O
ct-12N
ov-12D
ec-12Jan-13Feb-13M
ar-13A
pr-13M
ay-13Jun-13Jul-13A
ug-13S
ep-13O
ct-13N
ov-13D
ec-13
28%
% s
atis
fied
Cameron
CleggCampbell
Clegg elected (Jan 08)
General Election
39%
Miliband 29%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – December ‘13
Farage
33%
8
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIRMAJOR BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
9
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
January 2006 – December 2013December 2013
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -13
39%
52%
9%
Base 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013
10
0102030405060708090
100
Base: 249 Conservative supporters 18+, 7th -9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
78%
17%
5%Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +61 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
January 2006 – December 2013December 2013
11
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2013) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
HOWARD (2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th-9th December 2013
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – December 2013December 2013
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
29%
54%
16%
Net = -25
13
47%
41%
13%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 327 Labour supporters 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013
Ed Miliband(satisfaction among Labour supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
December 2013
Net = +6
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – December 2013
14Nick Clegg (satisfaction)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+,7th-9th December 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
January 2008 – December 2013December 2013
28%
57%
15%
SatisfiedDon’t know
DissatisfiedNet = -29
15
0102030405060708090
100
Base: 84 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 7th-9th December 2013. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
December 2013
50%
36%
14%SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +14
Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
January 2008 – December 2013
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
16
33%
38%
28%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 62 UKIP supporters, 7th-9th December 2013. N.B. small base size indicative only
All
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied87%
6%6%
UKIP supporters
SatisfiedDon’t knowDissatisfied
Net = -5 Net = +81
The economy
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-
04S
ep-0
4D
ec-0
4M
ar-0
5Ju
n-05
Sep
-05
Dec
-05
Mar
-06
Jun-
06S
ep-0
6D
ec-0
6M
ar-0
7Ju
n-07
Sep
-07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08S
ep-0
8D
ec-0
8M
ar-0
9Ju
n-09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10S
ep-1
0D
ec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12S
ep-1
2D
ec-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013
Improve
Stay the sameGet worse Improve
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
December 2013
EOI = +18
44%
27%
26%
2%
19
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Mar
-97
Jun-
97S
ep-9
7D
ec-9
7M
ar-9
8Ju
n-98
Sep
-98
Dec
-98
Mar
-99
Jun-
99S
ep-9
9D
ec-9
9M
ar-0
0Ju
n-00
Sep
-00
Dec
-00
Mar
-01
Jun-
01S
ep-0
1D
ec-0
1M
ar-0
2Ju
n-02
Sep
-02
Dec
-02
Mar
-03
Jun-
03S
ep-0
3D
ec-0
3M
ar-0
4Ju
n-04
Sep
-04
Dec
-04
Mar
-05
Jun-
05S
ep-0
5D
ec-0
5M
ar-0
6Ju
n-06
Sep
-06
Dec
-06
Mar
-07
Jun-
07S
ep-0
7D
ec-0
7M
ar-0
8Ju
n-08
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09S
ep-0
9D
ec-0
9M
ar-1
0Ju
n-10
Sep
-10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11S
ep-1
1D
ec-1
1M
ar-1
2Ju
n-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13S
ep-1
3D
ec-1
3
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46-56
-48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism IndexIn
dex
(get
bet
ter m
inus
get
wor
se)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+18
Ed Balls, George Osborne & Boris Johnson: policies and personalities
21
Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Chancellor, George Osborne/ Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls/ London Mayor, Boris Johnson?
Perceptions of Balls, Osborne & Johnson and their policies
Ed BallsGeorge
OsborneBoris Johnson
% % %
I like him and I like his policies 16 19 39
I like him but I do not like his policies 11 8 20
I do not like him but I like his policies 10 17 5
I do not like him and I do not like his policies 41 37 18
Don't know 22 19 18
Total like him 27 27 59Total do not like him 51 54 23Total like his policies 26 36 44Total do not like his policies 52 45 38
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
22
36%
35%
18%
12%
Osborne vs. Balls: most capable Chancellor
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013, 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013
George Osborne
Ed Balls
Neither
Don’t know
August 2013
40%
29%
19%
12%
December 2013
George Osborne
Ed Balls
Neither
Don’t know
23Most capable Chancellor - trend
35
36
29
34 35
3640
36
35
37 3438
35
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
12Fe
b-12
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
12Ju
l-12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13Fe
b-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13Ju
l-13
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls?
Ed Balls
George Osborne