Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: August 2013

POLITICAL MONITOR

August 2013

Contacts:

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Voting Intentions

3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those

“certain to vote”

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -9

All giving a voting intention: 80%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

31%

40%

10%

11%

8%

Base 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013, all certain to vote = 586

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

All certain to vote: 54%

Conservative lead = -10

30%

40%

10%

11%

9%

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

y-0

3

Aug

-03

Nov-0

3

Feb-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Aug

-04

Nov-0

4

Feb-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Aug

-05

Nov-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Aug

-06

Nov-0

6

Feb-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Aug

-07

No

v-0

7

Feb-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Aug

-08

Nov-0

8

Feb-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Aug

-09

Nov-0

9

Feb-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Aug

-10

Nov-1

0

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Aug

-11

Nov-1

1

Feb-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Aug

-12

Nov-1

2

Feb-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Aug

-13

40%

Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

10%

30%

2010 General Election

Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voting Intentions January ‘03 – August ‘13

(all certain to vote)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

11%

Satisfaction with the Coalition

and Party Leaders

6

55

62

55

38

60

38

27

28

33

32

Net satisfaction

Net change from July

2013

-17 -1

-35 -1

-27 -1

-5 -4

-28 +4

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th August 2013

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister

/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?


David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Ed Miliband

% Satisfied

% Dissatisfied

Nigel Farage

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Au

g-0

7S

ep

-07

Oct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-0

8F

eb

-08

Ma

r-08

Ap

r-08

Ma

y-0

8Ju

n-0

8Ju

l-08

Au

g-0

8S

ep

-08

Oct-0

8N

ov-0

8D

ec-0

8Ja

n-0

9F

eb

-09

Ma

r-09

Ap

r-09

Ma

y-0

9Ju

n-0

9Jul-0

9A

ug

-09

Se

p-0

9O

ct-0

9N

ov-0

9D

ec-0

9Ja

n-1

0F

eb

-10

Mar-1

0A

pr-1

0M

ay-1

0Ju

n-1

0Ju

l-10

Au

g-1

0S

ep

-10

Oct-1

0N

ov-1

0D

ec-1

0Ja

n-1

1F

eb

-11

Ma

r-11

Ap

r-11

Ma

y-1

1Ju

n-1

1Jul-1

1A

ug

-11

Se

p-1

1O

ct-1

1N

ov-1

1D

ec-1

1Ja

n-1

2F

eb

-12

Mar-1

2A

pr-1

2M

ay-1

2Ju

n-1

2Ju

l-12

Au

g-1

2S

ep

-12

Oct-1

2N

ov-1

2D

ec-1

2Ja

n-1

3F

eb

-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3Ju

n-1

3Jul-1

3A

ug

-13

27%

% s

ati

sfi

ed

Cameron

Clegg

Campbell

Clegg elected (Jan 08)

General Election

38%

Miliband 28%

Brown

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?

Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – August ‘13

Farage

33%

8

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

THATCHER

BLAIR MAJOR

BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

9


David Cameron (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Satisfied

Dissatisfied

January 2006 – August 2013 August 2013

Satisfied Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = -17

38%

55%

7%

Base 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 255 Conservative supporters 18+, 10th -12th August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

David Cameron

(satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative

Party/ as Prime Minister?

72%

25%

3% Satisfied

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Net = +47 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

January 2006 – August 2013 August 2013

11


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders

(1994 – 2013)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2013)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)


Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

12

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ed Miliband (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?


Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th-12th August 2013

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – August 2013 August 2013


Dissatisfied

28%

55%

16%

Net = -27

13

47%

43%

10%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Base: 316 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013

Ed Miliband

(satisfaction among Labour supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

August 2013

Net = +4


Dissatisfied


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

October 2010 – August 2013

14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

February 2008 – August 2013 August 2013

27%

62%

11%


Dissatisfied

Net = -35

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base: 85 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 10th-12th August 2013

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

August 2013

52%

38%

11%


Dissatisfied

Net = +14

Nick Clegg

(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/

as Deputy Prime Minister?

February 2008 – August 2013



16

33%

38%

29%

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK

Independence Party?


Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 95 UKIP supporters, 10th-12th August 2013

All


Dissatisfied 85%

7% 8%

UKIP supporters


Dissatisfied

Net = -5 Net = +78

Leaders and their parties

18

23%

7%

26%

37%

8%

Leaders and their parties- Ed Miliband

Which of these statements come closest to your view of Ed Miliband and the Labour party?

August 2013

I do not like and I do not

like his party


Miliband & the Labour

Party

%

August

2013

Change

since

October

2012

Total like him 30 -7

Total do not like him 63 +7

Total like his party 49 -2

Total do not like his party 43 +1


I like him and I like his party

I like him but I do not like his party

I do not like him but I like

his party

Don’t know

19


Leaders and their parties- David Cameron

August 2013

I do not like him and I

do not like his party


Cameron & the

Conservative Party

%

August

2013

Change

since

October

2012

Total like him 43 +2

Total do not like him 52 -2

Total like his party 38 +3

Total do not like his party 57 -3

I like him and his party


I do not like him but I like his party

27%

16%

11%

41%

5%

Don’t know

Which of these statements come closest to your view of David Cameron and the Conservative/ party?

20 Leaders and their parties- Nick Clegg



August 2013

22%

11%

21%

36%

10%

Clegg & the

Liberal

Democrats

%

August

2013

Change

since

October

2012

Total like him 33 +4

Total do not like him 57 -6

Total like his party 43 +3

Total do not like his party 47 -5

I do not like him and I

do not like his party




Don’t know




Don’t know

Which of these statements come closest to your view of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrat party?

21

19%

8%

6%

44%

22%

Leaders and their parties- Nigel Farage



August 2013

Farage &

UKIP

%

August

2013

Total like him 27

Total do not like him 50

Total like his party 25

Total do not like his party 52

I do not like him and I do not like his party




Don’t know

Which of these statements come closest to your view of Nigel Farage and the United Kingdom Independence

party?

22 Identity crisis?


To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013

24

26

28

15

13

24

23

18

6

8

8

8

20

21

20

26

30

16

17

30

7

4

4

3

0 20 40 60 80 100

I don't know what Nigel Farage stands for

I don't know what Nick Clegg stands for

I don't know what Ed Miliband stands for

I don't know what David Cameron stands for

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know

33% 56%

51% 37%

50% 37%

37% 50%

The economy

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ma

y-0

4A

ug

-04

Nov-0

4F

eb-0

5M

ay-0

5A

ug

-05

Nov-0

5F

eb-0

6M

ay-0

6A

ug

-06

Nov-0

6F

eb-0

7M

ay-0

7A

ug

-07

Nov-0

7F

eb-0

8M

ay-0

8A

ug

-08

Nov-0

8F

eb-0

9M

ay-0

9A

ug

-09

Nov-0

9F

eb-1

0M

ay-1

0A

ug

-10

Nov-1

0F

eb-1

1M

ay-1

1A

ug

-11

Nov-1

1F

eb-1

2M

ay-1

2A

ug

-12

Nov-1

2F

eb-1

3M

ay-1

3A

ug

-13

Economic Optimism Index

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?


Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013

Improve

Stay the same Get worse Improve

Don’t know

Get worse

Stay the same

August 2013

EOI = +20

44%

29%

24%

2%

25

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Ma

y-9

7A

ug

-97

No

v-9

7F

eb

-98

Ma

y-9

8A

ug

-98

No

v-9

8F

eb

-99

Ma

y-9

9A

ug

-99

No

v-9

9F

eb

-00

Ma

y-0

0A

ug

-00

No

v-0

0F

eb

-01

Ma

y-0

1A

ug

-01

No

v-0

1F

eb

-02

Ma

y-0

2A

ug

-02

No

v-0

2F

eb

-03

Ma

y-0

3A

ug

-03

No

v-0

3F

eb

-04

Ma

y-0

4A

ug

-04

No

v-0

4F

eb-0

5M

ay-0

5A

ug

-05

Nov-0

5F

eb

-06

Ma

y-0

6A

ug-0

6N

ov-0

6F

eb

-07

May-0

7A

ug

-07

No

v-0

7F

eb-0

8M

ay-0

8A

ug

-08

Nov-0

8F

eb

-09

Ma

y-0

9A

ug-0

9N

ov-0

9F

eb

-10

May-1

0A

ug

-10

No

v-1

0F

eb-1

1M

ay-1

1A

ug

-11

Nov-1

1F

eb

-12

Ma

y-1

2A

ug-1

2N

ov-1

2F

eb

-13

May-1

3A

ug

-13

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse

over the next 12 months?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-56 -48

+23

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

Ind

ex

(g

et

be

tte

r m

inu

s g

et

wo

rse)

-64


+20

Most capable Chancellor

27 Osborne vs Balls

Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls?

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th August 2013


36%

35%

18%

12%

George

Osborne

Ed Balls

Neither

Don’t know

June 2013

35%

38%

15%

13%

George

Osborne

Ed Balls

Neither

Don’t know

August 2013

28 Osborne vs. Balls - trend

35

36

29

34 35

36 36

35

37 34

38

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ma

r-11

Apr-

11

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Feb-1

2

Ma

r-12

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct-

12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Feb-1

3

Ma

r-13

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Aug

-13

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls?

News & Politics

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: August 2013