Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2013

#beyondthebubble

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI

#beyondthebubble

3

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37%

10%

34%

Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Since 2010 Labour has consistently led in the polls

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

11%

June-Dec 2010:

Avg. -1.5pt Lab lead Jan ’11-Mar ‘12:

Avg. 4pt Lab lead

April ’12-April’13:

Avg. 10pt Lab lead

May – Sept ‘13:

6 pt Lab lead

4

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But what about the share, not the lead?

0

5

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25

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35

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45

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r-13

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Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Con share % 6 mth moving average


Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

April-May 2012

5

#beyondthebubble

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sh

are

of

go

vern

ing

part

y

Labour: 1997 – 2010

(6 mth moving average)

Base: c. 500-1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from new

government taking power

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone. Data collected prior to Nov 2002 is based on all expressing an intention to vote, data from Nov 1992 is based on all certain to vote

2001 GE

1987 GE

Conservatives: 1979-1997

(6 mth moving average)

Conservatives:

2010-2012


The electoral cycle?

2005 GE

1983 GE 1992 GE

6

#beyondthebubble

2015 is a difficult but not impossible task…

2.8

1.1

1.7

1.2

4.8

5.4 4.0

1.8

3.2

5.1

2

3

2.7

0.9

2.1

1.8

2

10.2

5

1950

1951

1955

1959

1964

1966

1970

1974 (Feb)

1974 (Oct)

1979

1983

1987

1992

1997

2001

2005

2010

2015

Swing to Con

Swing to Lab

Source: House of Commons Library

Swings at general elections

7

#beyondthebubble

Source: House of Commons Library

2015 is a difficult but not impossible task…

2.8

1.1

1.7

1.2

4.8

5.4 4.0

1.8

3.2

5.1

2

3

2.7

0.9

2.1

1.8

2

10.2

5

1950

1951

1955

1959

1964

1966

1970

1974 (Feb)

1974 (Oct)

1979

1983

1987

1992

1997

2001

2005

2010

2015

Swing to Con

Swing to Lab

Swings at general elections

8

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90

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Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Feb-1

3

Ma

r-13

Apr-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

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n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Are 2010 Conservative voters staying or going?

Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted

Conservative in 2010

Would vote for other party

Undecided/refused/ would not vote

Would still vote Conservative

%

See next slide

83%

76%

9

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Aug

-13

Sep

-13


Among 2010 Conservative voters who are

switching – where to?



Labour

Liberal Democrat

UKIP

%

10

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4

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Aug

-12

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-12

Oct-1

2

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2

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2

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3

Feb-1

3

Ma

r-13

Apr-1

3

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3

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Aug

-13

Sep

-13


Among 2010 Conservative voters who are

switching – where to?



Labour

Liberal Democrat

UKIP

%

11

#beyondthebubble

This is highest level of support for a “fourth party”

since the SDP in 1981 – who are UKIP voters?

Men

Oldest age profile of any party

Read the Daily Mail or

Telegraph (not the Guardian!)

Generally dissatisfied with everyone

(government, Cameron, Miliband,

Clegg)

Based in the Midlands and the South

(outside London)

In Conservative held seats – though

more often safe seats than marginals

More worried about Europe than

anyone else – but even more

worried about the economy &

immigration

#beyondthebubble

Are there parts the Conservative vote

does not reach?

13

#beyondthebubble

5%

6%

1%

2%

6%

0%

8%

9%

12% Oct 1974

1979

1983

1992

2005

1987

1997

2001

Con lead over Lab higher among women Con lead over Lab higher among men

2010

The declining tradition of Conservative women is

a long-term issue

14

#beyondthebubble

The “women’s vote” now…

Conservative lead = -5

Men

31%

36%

9%

15%

9%

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

UKIP

Other

Women


29%

42%

10%

9%

10%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base 4, 180 British adults 18+, January – August 2013

“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*

*All certain to vote

+8

-7

-13

+11

-7

-16

15

#beyondthebubble

Blue collar women no longer voting blue

29%

42%

10%

9%

10% ABs: -5

C1s: -10

C2s: -11

DEs: -3

16

#beyondthebubble

The gender gap is most clearly pronounced

among younger voters

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*

*All certain to vote

31 30 31

24 25

33

39 36

33

48 48

36

10 9 9 9 11 11

6

14

19

4 7

13

18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+

Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP

Men Women

Base 4, 180 British adults 18+, January – August 2013

17

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“How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”

Generational analysis shows the Conservatives’

traditional reliance on older voters – but changing?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

% Conservative

All data points represent > 1,000 responses Source: Ipsos MORI

#beyondthebubble

19

#beyondthebubble

The political map now…

20

#beyondthebubble

Strong in the south…

37%

28%

12%

15%

8%

21

#beyondthebubble

…apart from in London

29%

44%

11%

9% 7%

22

#beyondthebubble

Small Labour lead in the Midlands

32%

38%

9%

14%

7%

23

#beyondthebubble

The north is very red

26%

47%

8%

12% 7%

24

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Tories are barely seen in Scotland and Wales

20%

39% 7%

6%

28%

#beyondthebubble

Labour’s lead…three

reasons why it might be

fragile

#beyondthebubble

1. Views of the leaders

27

#beyondthebubble

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

Ed Miliband’s approval ratings are low

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

MILIBAND (2010-2013)

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

28

#beyondthebubble


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

(Hague and IDS low)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

MILIBAND (2010-2013)


Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

29

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

And Cameron’s ratings are steadying

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister


30

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Compares to other Prime Ministers…

THATCHER

BLAIR MAJOR

BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister


31

#beyondthebubble #beyondthebubble

Cameron leads on more Prime Ministerial

qualities

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various

politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

79%

50%

70%

52%

40%

53%

47%

40%

58%

52%

49%

41%

32%

28%

20%

19%

Miliband Cameron


Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013

A capable leader

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Out of touch with ordinary people

More style than substance

Has got a lot of personality

Looks after some sections of society more than others

#beyondthebubble

2. Economic credibility

33

#beyondthebubble

Base: 970 British adults 18+, 30th August – 8th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

The economy is the most important issue

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

45

33

32

23

21

16

13

13

11

10

Top mentions %

Economy

Race relations/Immigration

Inflation/Prices

NHS

Unemployment

Crime/Law and order

Defence/foreign affairs

Education/schools

Poverty/Inequality

Housing

34

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And the Conservatives hold the mantle of

economic credibility

Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?


35

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And the Conservatives hold the mantle of

economic credibility

Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?


38%

20%

5%

36

#beyondthebubble

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over

the next 12 months?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

Perhaps not surprising given summer of rising

economic optimism…


Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index =

% improve minus % get worse

37

#beyondthebubble

Though no-one has won the living standards

debate

Do you think you and you family would be better off under a Conservative government or a Labour

government, or do you think it would make no difference?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013


22%

52%

23% Conservative

government

Labour

government

Make no

difference

38

#beyondthebubble

Tories seen as a more credible government

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various

political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013

14%

21%

17%

27%

38%

27%

47%

39%

Fit to govern

Has a good team of leaders

41%

27%

44%

29%

55%

43%

44%

30%

Understands the problemsfacing Britain

Looks after the interest of people like me

Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrats UKIP

#beyondthebubble

40

#beyondthebubble #beyondthebubble

The Conservatives are still the most disliked party

Which of these statements come closest to your view of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat/United

Kingdom Independence party?

% dislike party

#beyondthebubble

3. Labour’s reliance on

Liberal Democrats

42 Will LibDem switchers come back?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013

Voted LD

in 2010


26%

13%

29%

7%

5%

20% Other

UKIP

Conservatives

Labour

Still LD & certain to vote

Still LD, not certain to vote

43 Although tactical voting isn’t dead…..

You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it

be?

Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013


Lab

supporters

Lib Dem

supporters

Conservatives 14 30

Labour - 31

Liberal Democrats 30 -

UKIP 9 7

Other 16 20

Would not vote for

another party/none 22 5

Don’t know 8 7

44 Tactical voting isn’t dead…..

You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it

be?

Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013


Lab

supporters

Lib Dem

supporters

Con

supporters

UKIP

supporters

Conservatives 14 30 - 37

Labour - 31 13 17

Liberal Democrats 30 - 33 9

UKIP 9 7 23 -

Other 16 20 6 17

Would not vote for

another party/none 22 5 17 16

Don’t know 8 7 9 4

#beyondthebubble

46

#beyondthebubble

Final thoughts

The economy is picking up

David Cameron remains an

asset

Still the party of the head….

But:

– ....not the party of the heart

– ‘no-go’ areas of support, while

UKIP chips away at base

– historical comparisons aren’t

kind

[email protected]

Questions and Discussion

News & Politics

Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2013