5 aprile 2013: 2052 Scenari globali per i prossimi quarant'anni

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 1 J Randers 1


2052 –

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Jorgen Randers

Professor Center for Climate Strategy

Norwegian Business School BI

Launch of the Italian translation Rome, April 4th, 2013


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12 scenarios for the 21st century


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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0

1

1

1 1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3 4

4

4

4

5

5

5 5

Year

5: Nonrenewable resources

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level

2: Food output

1: Population

Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004


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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3 3

4 4

4

4

5

5

5

5

5: Nonrenewable resources

1: Population

2: Food output

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level


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The 3 conclusions of The Limits to Growth

1. The planet is small (Resource constraints are likely within 100 years if growth continue)

2. Overshoot is likely (Current systems of governance are likely to allow human activity to grow beyond the finite carrying capacity of the planet)

3. Once in overshoot, physical contraction is unavoidable (Either managed or by the forces of nature or the market)


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Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009

Overshoot in CO2: Emissions = 2xAbsorption

1. Emissions from fossil fuels + 2. Emissions from deforestation

- 3. Absorption in oceans

- 4. Absorption in forests

= 5. Accumulating in the atmosphere


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For all numerical data and the forecast model,

consult the book website www.2052.info


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The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population 2010

(billion people)

GDP 2010

(trillion

$ pr year)

GDP per person 2010

(1000

$ pr person-year) US 0,3 13 41 China 1,3 10 7 OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world


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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

World population will peak in 2040


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Birth rate (scale →)

Death rate

Population (←scale)

% / yr Gpersons

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1


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0,0

1,2

2,4

3,6

4,8

6,0

0

30

60

90

120

150

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gross labor productivity (scale →)

10,000$ / person-yr G$ / yr

World GDP (←scale)

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a

Population aged 15 to 65 (scale → →)

3.6

Gp

4.8

6.0

2.4

1.2

0.0

Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity

World GDP growth will slow down


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Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050

Global consumption will stagnate


0

30

60

90

120

150

0

8

16

24

32

40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP (scale →)

Investment share in GDP (←scale)

G$ / yr %

Consumption (scale →)



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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

Energy use will peak in 2040


0

60

120

180

240

300

0

4

8

12

16

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World energy use (←scale)

toe / M$ Gtoe / yr

Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale →)

180

G$ / yr

World GDP (scale →→)

240

300

120

60

0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6


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Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052


Fossil fuel use will peak around 2030

0,0

1,3

2,6

3,9

5,2

6,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil use

Gtoe / yr

Nuclear use

Gas use

Coal use

Renewable energy use



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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.


World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions (←scale)

tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr

Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale →) 15

Gtoe/yr

Energy use (scale →→)

20

25

10

5



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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

0

100

200

300

400

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 in atmosphere (←scale)

deg C ppm

Temperature rise (scale →)

0.9

m

Sea level rise (scale →→)

1.2

1.5

0.6

0.3



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Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050

Food will satisfy demand – but not need


0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

2,0

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Food production (←scale)

Gha Gt / yr

Cultivated land (scale →)

6

t/ha-yr

Gross yield (scale →→)

8

10

4

2



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Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast

♣ World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052

than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis

♣ Consumption will stagnate

because world society will have to spend ever more on repair and adaptation

♣ Future will resemble Limits Scenario 2:

“Pollution crisis”


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After-tax disposable income – 1970 to 2050

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)

WORLD

BRISE

China

OECD

USA

RoWResidual

less US


J Randers 19 J Randers 19


The root problem: Pervasive short-termism


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What should have been done? - Globally

1. Introduce the 1-child family, first in the rich world – to further slow population growth

2. Ban fossil fuels, first in the rich world – to reduce climate gas emissions

3. Build a climate-friendly energy system for and in the poor world – to help them avoid cheap coal

4. Establish supra-national institutions (e.g. a global central bank for climate-gas-emission rights) - to temper short-termism

5. Establish new goals for rich society: Higher wellbeing in a world without growth


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I don’t like what I see!

[email protected] www.2052.info

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5 aprile 2013: 2052 Scenari globali per i prossimi quarant'anni