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2010 m. gruodžio 6 d. Vilniuje vyko tarptautinė konferencija „Baltarusija ir Lietuva: atominių elektrinių statybos grėsmės ir perspektyvos“. „Greenpeace” aktyvistas Janas Haverkampas skaitė pranešimą "Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos".
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THE BALTICNUCLEAR
PHASE-OUT
Risks and Chances
Ir. Jan HaverkampGreenpeace
EU policy campaigner dirty energy
Nuclear Baltics
Nuclear Phase-outVISAGINAS• No investors – KEPCO out• LV, EE, PL interest doubtful• No financiers• 3500 – 4500 €/kWe
BELARUS• Finances will be difficult• Public and international resistance
KALININGRAD• Largest chance• Strategic investor?• Does Germany dare?
Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Safety
VISAGINAS• Design?• EIA: too low source term• Regulatory (in)experience• Skills
BELARUS• Near Vilnius• Design?• Regulatory inexperience
KALININGRAD• No public scrutiny• No international EIA• No EU regulatory standard
Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Security
VISAGINAS• Design?• Political long term stability?
BELARUS• Political instability?
KALININGRAD• German nationalist extremism?• Cold war?• Vulnerability grid
Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Waste
VISAGINAS• Legacy Ignalina• No suitable underground• No suitable technique• Lack of stable financial structures• Nothing in EIA
BELARUS• Idem
KALININGRAD• Idem• Transports to Russia
Risks of Nuclear Baltics – Energy Security
VISAGINAS• No proper Energy Strategy based on scenario comparison• Danger of stop on development until on-line• Danger of coming in saturated market – threatening RE inv.• Inflexible grid development• Barrier to RE development• Dependence on nuclear fuel politically unstable countries• Lack of sufficient back-up
BELARUS and KALININGRAD• Idem
Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Economics
VISAGINAS• 3500 – 4500 €/kWe• FOK – increasing costs and construction time• Regulatory inexperience• Too high debt for country• Lack of means for RE and EE
BELARUS• Too high state debt
KALININGRAD• Russian political weapon
• Price• Participation strat. inv.
Advantages of Nuclear Baltics
none
except for short term interests nuclear elite
Chances of a Nuclear-free Baltics
Potentials
www.inforse.org/europe/VisionBaltic.htm
Energy Security• No dependency on foreign fuel• Decentralised technology – no large scale disruption• More spread ownership
Economics• Long term: lower costs• More employment• Spread financial risks
Chances of a Nuclear-free Baltics
Policy Needs Now• Get realistic: stop nuclear plans • Work out different energy policy scenarios• Re-focus human and financial capacity to EE and RE• Social-economic plan for Ignalina / Visaginas Region• Full transparency in the debate (Aarhus / ACN process)
