Urban Transportation Land Use and
the Environment in Latin America
A Case Study Approach
Units 3-0-6
General Course DescriptionAimed at the aspiring planning practitioner policy-maker or industry decision-maker with an interest in urban transportation and environmental issues in developing countriesFocus Latin America ldquomega-citiesrdquo Geared towards interactive problem-solving ndash
Detailed knowledge of transportation planning is not required ndash 1048698
the course will place the general practitioner into a specific transportation public policy situation and draw from her skills to devise real solutions
institutional analysis policy analysis and project and program evaluation and implementation
The Case Study Approach
Mexico City and Santiago de Chile
Student Teams ndash ldquoConsultantsrdquo amp ldquoStakeholdersrdquo
ndash Develop and critique viable strategic plans
Back-of-the-envelope calculations (Excel) policy analysis technology analysis institutional analysis
Requirements -Evaluation
Completion of 4 brief (15 pages) papers on the materials covered during the coursersquos Introductory Section (15) ndash one per week
Participation in a student ldquoconsultingrdquo team for one of the case studies ndash develop over a four week period a strategic transportdevelopmentenvironment plan (65)
Participation in a student ldquostakeholderrdquo team for the other case study ndash each stakeholder provides a one to two page response to the ldquoconsultantrdquo final recommendations (15) 1048698
Overall Class Participation (5)
Course ScheduleLectures 1-5 LecturesDiscussions
ndash
Lectures 6 Lectures Discussions Presentations
ndash Lectures 6 ndash 9 Mexico City
ndash Lectures 10 ndash 13 Santiago 1048698Lectures 14 Conclusions
Introduction Cities in the Development Context Urban Transport and Sustainability Regional Strategic Transportation Planning Transportation Strategies Options amp Examples
Remainder of Todayrsquos Lecture
Introduction to Analytical and Methodological Concepts 1048698
Introduction to the Context ndash Cities
Development and Transportation with a
Latin America Focus
The City in Development ndashTwo Core Phenomena
Urbanization -strongly correlated with income growth ndash particularly as countries move from low to middle income levels
ndash
Suburbanization ndash spreading out of cities and reduction in population densities
ndash
ndash The larger the city the more sub-centers ndash ldquopolycentricrdquo
Linked to industrialization economies of scale and agglomeration educational and social desires etc 1048698
Driven by rich and poor settlements alike influenced by changes in land use allowances (agricultural conversion) infrastructure investments consumer desires economic realities (lower land and development costs) motorization
World Urbanization Trends
Total population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Urban population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Source UNPD World Urbanization Prospects the 1999 Revision
World ldquoSuburbanizationrdquo Trends
Will the developing world follow Seems to already be so
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
General Course DescriptionAimed at the aspiring planning practitioner policy-maker or industry decision-maker with an interest in urban transportation and environmental issues in developing countriesFocus Latin America ldquomega-citiesrdquo Geared towards interactive problem-solving ndash
Detailed knowledge of transportation planning is not required ndash 1048698
the course will place the general practitioner into a specific transportation public policy situation and draw from her skills to devise real solutions
institutional analysis policy analysis and project and program evaluation and implementation
The Case Study Approach
Mexico City and Santiago de Chile
Student Teams ndash ldquoConsultantsrdquo amp ldquoStakeholdersrdquo
ndash Develop and critique viable strategic plans
Back-of-the-envelope calculations (Excel) policy analysis technology analysis institutional analysis
Requirements -Evaluation
Completion of 4 brief (15 pages) papers on the materials covered during the coursersquos Introductory Section (15) ndash one per week
Participation in a student ldquoconsultingrdquo team for one of the case studies ndash develop over a four week period a strategic transportdevelopmentenvironment plan (65)
Participation in a student ldquostakeholderrdquo team for the other case study ndash each stakeholder provides a one to two page response to the ldquoconsultantrdquo final recommendations (15) 1048698
Overall Class Participation (5)
Course ScheduleLectures 1-5 LecturesDiscussions
ndash
Lectures 6 Lectures Discussions Presentations
ndash Lectures 6 ndash 9 Mexico City
ndash Lectures 10 ndash 13 Santiago 1048698Lectures 14 Conclusions
Introduction Cities in the Development Context Urban Transport and Sustainability Regional Strategic Transportation Planning Transportation Strategies Options amp Examples
Remainder of Todayrsquos Lecture
Introduction to Analytical and Methodological Concepts 1048698
Introduction to the Context ndash Cities
Development and Transportation with a
Latin America Focus
The City in Development ndashTwo Core Phenomena
Urbanization -strongly correlated with income growth ndash particularly as countries move from low to middle income levels
ndash
Suburbanization ndash spreading out of cities and reduction in population densities
ndash
ndash The larger the city the more sub-centers ndash ldquopolycentricrdquo
Linked to industrialization economies of scale and agglomeration educational and social desires etc 1048698
Driven by rich and poor settlements alike influenced by changes in land use allowances (agricultural conversion) infrastructure investments consumer desires economic realities (lower land and development costs) motorization
World Urbanization Trends
Total population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Urban population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Source UNPD World Urbanization Prospects the 1999 Revision
World ldquoSuburbanizationrdquo Trends
Will the developing world follow Seems to already be so
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
The Case Study Approach
Mexico City and Santiago de Chile
Student Teams ndash ldquoConsultantsrdquo amp ldquoStakeholdersrdquo
ndash Develop and critique viable strategic plans
Back-of-the-envelope calculations (Excel) policy analysis technology analysis institutional analysis
Requirements -Evaluation
Completion of 4 brief (15 pages) papers on the materials covered during the coursersquos Introductory Section (15) ndash one per week
Participation in a student ldquoconsultingrdquo team for one of the case studies ndash develop over a four week period a strategic transportdevelopmentenvironment plan (65)
Participation in a student ldquostakeholderrdquo team for the other case study ndash each stakeholder provides a one to two page response to the ldquoconsultantrdquo final recommendations (15) 1048698
Overall Class Participation (5)
Course ScheduleLectures 1-5 LecturesDiscussions
ndash
Lectures 6 Lectures Discussions Presentations
ndash Lectures 6 ndash 9 Mexico City
ndash Lectures 10 ndash 13 Santiago 1048698Lectures 14 Conclusions
Introduction Cities in the Development Context Urban Transport and Sustainability Regional Strategic Transportation Planning Transportation Strategies Options amp Examples
Remainder of Todayrsquos Lecture
Introduction to Analytical and Methodological Concepts 1048698
Introduction to the Context ndash Cities
Development and Transportation with a
Latin America Focus
The City in Development ndashTwo Core Phenomena
Urbanization -strongly correlated with income growth ndash particularly as countries move from low to middle income levels
ndash
Suburbanization ndash spreading out of cities and reduction in population densities
ndash
ndash The larger the city the more sub-centers ndash ldquopolycentricrdquo
Linked to industrialization economies of scale and agglomeration educational and social desires etc 1048698
Driven by rich and poor settlements alike influenced by changes in land use allowances (agricultural conversion) infrastructure investments consumer desires economic realities (lower land and development costs) motorization
World Urbanization Trends
Total population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Urban population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Source UNPD World Urbanization Prospects the 1999 Revision
World ldquoSuburbanizationrdquo Trends
Will the developing world follow Seems to already be so
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Requirements -Evaluation
Completion of 4 brief (15 pages) papers on the materials covered during the coursersquos Introductory Section (15) ndash one per week
Participation in a student ldquoconsultingrdquo team for one of the case studies ndash develop over a four week period a strategic transportdevelopmentenvironment plan (65)
Participation in a student ldquostakeholderrdquo team for the other case study ndash each stakeholder provides a one to two page response to the ldquoconsultantrdquo final recommendations (15) 1048698
Overall Class Participation (5)
Course ScheduleLectures 1-5 LecturesDiscussions
ndash
Lectures 6 Lectures Discussions Presentations
ndash Lectures 6 ndash 9 Mexico City
ndash Lectures 10 ndash 13 Santiago 1048698Lectures 14 Conclusions
Introduction Cities in the Development Context Urban Transport and Sustainability Regional Strategic Transportation Planning Transportation Strategies Options amp Examples
Remainder of Todayrsquos Lecture
Introduction to Analytical and Methodological Concepts 1048698
Introduction to the Context ndash Cities
Development and Transportation with a
Latin America Focus
The City in Development ndashTwo Core Phenomena
Urbanization -strongly correlated with income growth ndash particularly as countries move from low to middle income levels
ndash
Suburbanization ndash spreading out of cities and reduction in population densities
ndash
ndash The larger the city the more sub-centers ndash ldquopolycentricrdquo
Linked to industrialization economies of scale and agglomeration educational and social desires etc 1048698
Driven by rich and poor settlements alike influenced by changes in land use allowances (agricultural conversion) infrastructure investments consumer desires economic realities (lower land and development costs) motorization
World Urbanization Trends
Total population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Urban population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Source UNPD World Urbanization Prospects the 1999 Revision
World ldquoSuburbanizationrdquo Trends
Will the developing world follow Seems to already be so
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Course ScheduleLectures 1-5 LecturesDiscussions
ndash
Lectures 6 Lectures Discussions Presentations
ndash Lectures 6 ndash 9 Mexico City
ndash Lectures 10 ndash 13 Santiago 1048698Lectures 14 Conclusions
Introduction Cities in the Development Context Urban Transport and Sustainability Regional Strategic Transportation Planning Transportation Strategies Options amp Examples
Remainder of Todayrsquos Lecture
Introduction to Analytical and Methodological Concepts 1048698
Introduction to the Context ndash Cities
Development and Transportation with a
Latin America Focus
The City in Development ndashTwo Core Phenomena
Urbanization -strongly correlated with income growth ndash particularly as countries move from low to middle income levels
ndash
Suburbanization ndash spreading out of cities and reduction in population densities
ndash
ndash The larger the city the more sub-centers ndash ldquopolycentricrdquo
Linked to industrialization economies of scale and agglomeration educational and social desires etc 1048698
Driven by rich and poor settlements alike influenced by changes in land use allowances (agricultural conversion) infrastructure investments consumer desires economic realities (lower land and development costs) motorization
World Urbanization Trends
Total population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Urban population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Source UNPD World Urbanization Prospects the 1999 Revision
World ldquoSuburbanizationrdquo Trends
Will the developing world follow Seems to already be so
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Remainder of Todayrsquos Lecture
Introduction to Analytical and Methodological Concepts 1048698
Introduction to the Context ndash Cities
Development and Transportation with a
Latin America Focus
The City in Development ndashTwo Core Phenomena
Urbanization -strongly correlated with income growth ndash particularly as countries move from low to middle income levels
ndash
Suburbanization ndash spreading out of cities and reduction in population densities
ndash
ndash The larger the city the more sub-centers ndash ldquopolycentricrdquo
Linked to industrialization economies of scale and agglomeration educational and social desires etc 1048698
Driven by rich and poor settlements alike influenced by changes in land use allowances (agricultural conversion) infrastructure investments consumer desires economic realities (lower land and development costs) motorization
World Urbanization Trends
Total population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Urban population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Source UNPD World Urbanization Prospects the 1999 Revision
World ldquoSuburbanizationrdquo Trends
Will the developing world follow Seems to already be so
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
The City in Development ndashTwo Core Phenomena
Urbanization -strongly correlated with income growth ndash particularly as countries move from low to middle income levels
ndash
Suburbanization ndash spreading out of cities and reduction in population densities
ndash
ndash The larger the city the more sub-centers ndash ldquopolycentricrdquo
Linked to industrialization economies of scale and agglomeration educational and social desires etc 1048698
Driven by rich and poor settlements alike influenced by changes in land use allowances (agricultural conversion) infrastructure investments consumer desires economic realities (lower land and development costs) motorization
World Urbanization Trends
Total population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Urban population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Source UNPD World Urbanization Prospects the 1999 Revision
World ldquoSuburbanizationrdquo Trends
Will the developing world follow Seems to already be so
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
World Urbanization Trends
Total population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Urban population (billions)
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Source UNPD World Urbanization Prospects the 1999 Revision
World ldquoSuburbanizationrdquo Trends
Will the developing world follow Seems to already be so
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
World ldquoSuburbanizationrdquo Trends
Will the developing world follow Seems to already be so
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Suburbanization is not just people
Satellite cities industrial parks office parks following people infrastructure and land prices- Increased mobilitytelecoms feed the process as
micro-scale agglomeration economies weaken and other factors (additional space freeway access) play a role
- Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts and highly mobile ndash 3-5 annual mobility rates (Ingram)
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
The ldquoDeveloping Cityrdquo Often high concentration of national population eco
nomic activity motor vehicles Inadequate transportation infrastructure ndash shortfalls
poor maintenance poor management Weakunclear institutional fiscal and regulatory stru
ctures at metropolitan level 1048698 In comparison to ldquoIndustrialized Cityrdquo ndash
ndash
Greater income disparities larger relative number of poor greater social needs and fewer public resources
Higher population densities lower road network densities fewer motor vehicles per capita
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
The City Accessibility Mobility Accessibility ldquoThe potential for spatial interaction
with various desired social and economic opportunitiesrdquo ndash What we want 1048698 1048698
Mobility the ability to move between differentMobility the ability to move between different plaplaces (overcome distance) key for enhancingces (overcome distance) key for enhancing (firm(firmsrsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698 srsquo amp individualsrsquo) accessibility 1048698
Higher accessibility is almost always better Higher accessibility is almost always better highhigher mobility depends on net contribution toer mobility depends on net contribution to accessaccessibilityibility
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
The City Accessibility Mobility
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Distribution of jobs residences schools etc defines a cityrsquos potential accessibility
ndash Determines virtually all transportation activity ndash In developing world particularly crucial due to low
er general levels of individual mobility ldquoStylizedrdquo developing country traits ndash Metro level ndash Historic concentration of trip attractions in city center ndash High densities ndash Socio-economic and functional segregation forcing long trips for poor often isolated on the urban frin
ge
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Land Use Transport Accessibility
Densities local distribution of land uses ldquodesignrdquo factors (street design layout)
ndash Unclear impact on trip frequency distance mode 1048698
Density shown to influence travel (Newman amp Kenworthy Pickrell)
ndash But difficult to isolate other influencing factors 1048698 Household size relative travel costs socioeconomic factors
ndash Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory ndash Few ldquogeneralizablerdquo influences ndash Little if any work specific to developing country cities
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Transport Land Use Accessibility
Transport system performance effects an arearsquos relative accessibility (attractiveness)
ndash Open up new areas for development 1048698 ie urban fringe highway
ndash Facilitate densification ie a center city metro 1048698
Also influences other attractiveness characteristics
ndash Noise pollution safety risks Do ldquohighways cause sprawlrdquo ndash Ultimate effects depend on householdsfirms relative s
ensitivity to transport costs
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Urban Transportrsquos ldquoVicious orvirtuousrdquo Cycle
Transportation ndash Providing Access bull Facilitate movement of goods and services
bull Improves accessibility to work education etc
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets Ownership
Motorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle FleetMotorization ndash Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets 10486981048698s 10486981048698
Motorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capiMotorization Rate ndashMotor Vehicles per capita (typically expressed vehicles1000 populata (typically expressed vehicles1000 population)tion)― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levels 1048698
Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Motorization Rate amp Income
Time-series and cross-section econometric models (ie using income per capita vehicles per capita and often other variables) across many countries or one country in time (see especially Ingram amp Liu)
ndash Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)
ndash Income shown to account for typically 70-90 of private vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)
ndash Income elasticities (ldquostylizedrdquo facts) 1048698 Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1 1048698 National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticities 1048698 Passenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Developing World Urban Motorization Rates
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
But Income Does not explain everything
Prices taxes policies public transport provision land uses culture etc
ndash For example same motorization rate seen in
Morocco Chile Mauritius Hong Kong Argentina Korea Poland Israel Mexico Singapore
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Perspectives on Motorization
Anthropological ndash auto as status symbol 1048698 Political ndash freedom amp privacy 1048698
Economic ndash rational economic decision 1048698 Sociological (Vasconcellos 1997)
ndash Middle class reproduction effects on
consumptionlifestyle patterns and
subsequent space and transport outcomes
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Income amp Accessibility -The Demand for Trips
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Income amp Accessibility - The Demand for Trips
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Accessibility ndashndash Types of Trips and Modes (Santiago)
SourceSECTRA1991
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Income and Accessibility The Demand for Speed Flexibility
Peoplehouseholds aim to maximize accessibility subject to time and income constraints
― Trade-off bw activities that can be performed within time and income budgets
― Maximize Total Net Benefits (All Benefits minus all costs including transport time and money costs) obtained from activities at home and elsewhere ndash theory underlying residential (and business) location choice
As incomes increase the ability to ldquopurchase speedrdquo (and comfort) ldquofrees uprdquo the individualhousehold to pursue other locational attributes (ie more space) with potentially the same (or higher) levels of total accessibility
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Income and Mode Share -Santiago
Source SECTRA 1991
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Income and Mode Share Share --Satildeo Paulo
Source Companhia do Metropolitano de Satildeo Paulo 1999
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Motorization Rate amp Mode Share -Santiago
Sourcesectra1991
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Motorization Rate Mode Share Trips --Santiago
1997 1991 Annual growth
Autos1000 60 90 3 Population Auto Mode 98 158 43share TripsCapita 114 213 44
Motorized 095 17 42TripsCapita
Source SECTRA1991
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Non--motorized Transport (NMT)
In Latin Americarsquos larger cities ―Walking is still important particularly but not
exclusively for poor 1048698 In Satildeo Paulo 10 of wealthiest residentsrsquo trips are walking
―Walking is key feeder to public transport 1048698 In Santiago 70-80 of Metro trips start or end as walk trips
―Bicycling when counted is often marginal 1048698 Typically 1-3 of all trips 1048698 Vehicle access comfort safety security ldquoculturerdquo ndash all barriers
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Road-Based Public Transport
In Latin America typical historical cycle ndash First half of 20th C Regulated Monopolies
ndash Then Nationalized Public Monopolies
ndash By 1970s Deteriorating conditions
economic ideology andor lack of regulatory
power led to privatization andor opening up
(formally or informally) to private provision
ndash Today private sector dominates provision in most
places in variety of regime types
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Operating Regimes in Region
CityCity Public Public ProvisionProvision
ContractContract FranchisFranchiseeConcessiConcessionon
LicensedLicensedUnregulaUnregulatedted
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Example of Roles in ldquoLooserdquo Regulation
City Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
BogotaBogota Issues Issues licenses(routehourslicenses(routehours
Capacity)basic fares poor Capacity)basic fares poor overall regulationoverall regulation
Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry Vehicle Owners payrdquoentry feerdquo to licensed companyfeerdquo to licensed company
Premium farePremium fare
BuenosBuenos
AiresAires
Issues concession Issues concession licenses Ministry of licenses Ministry of Economy sets fare Economy sets fare Transport Authority Transport Authority routesscheduleroutesschedule
Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in Vehicles are ldquosharerdquo in company(association)company(association)
Operators set vehicle typeOperators set vehicle type
Company influences Company influences schedsched
MexicoMexico
CityCity
Issuse route-based Issuse route-based licenses for buses and licenses for buses and minibuses sets fares and minibuses sets fares and routesroutes
Operators determine Operators determine vehicle type and schedulevehicle type and schedule
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Example of Roles in ldquoStrongrdquo Regulation
CityCity Authority(ies)Authority(ies) CompaniesCompanies
CuritiCuritibaba
Gross cost contracts on area Gross cost contracts on area basis reimburses operators basis reimburses operators based on per kms fares vehicle based on per kms fares vehicle type schedule routebuses type schedule routebuses specifiedspecified
10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies10 ldquoFormalrdquo Companies
RioRio Licenses specify level of service Licenses specify level of service and fare routes and vehicle typesand fare routes and vehicle types
33 licensed 33 licensed companiescompanies
SantiaSantiagogo
Contract specifies route and Contract specifies route and frequency fare and vehicle type frequency fare and vehicle type established in biddingestablished in bidding
~250 companies set fares and ~250 companies set fares and vehicle type via biddingvehicle type via bidding
San San PauloPaulo
Contract ndash based on standardized Contract ndash based on standardized cost schedule ndashspecifies route cost schedule ndashspecifies route frequency and vehicle type payment frequency and vehicle type payment on per km basison per km basis
50 private operators50 private operators
Contract does not allow for much Contract does not allow for much innovationinnovation
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Automobility amp the Forces Against the Bus
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Auto Bus vs Auto ndashndash Travel Speeds
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Minibuses shared sedans vans etc illegal or licensed but with little regulatory effort or power
― Mexico City Lima Recife (Brazil) San Jose (Costa
Rica) etc Combination of initiating factors
― Liberalization of the public transport market scarce alternative employment opportunities public sector employment restructuring (Peru) institutional weakness 1048698
Positive Impacts ― Employment fill demand with ldquodoor to doorrdquo service1048698
Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion pollution) political
clout unsafe on-road competition
Growth of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
ldquoInformalrdquo Sector Informalrdquo Sector
Rio ndash Kombis complementary service in inaccessible areas ndash 14-seater ldquoluxuryrdquo vehicles competing express service ndash Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare ndash Early 1990s 600 vehicles today 6000 to
9000 ndash Buses have responded to competition
diversifying operations and adding amenities (ie AC)
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
The Rise of the ldquoInformalrdquo Sector in Mexico City
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Urban Rail Transit1048698 Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698Metros suburban rail light rail 1048698 Typically the exception in developing cities incluTypically the exception in developing cities inclu
ding Latin Americading Latin America
ndash ndash High capital costs lack of flexibility in High capital costs lack of flexibility in
adapting to changing travel patterns adapting to changing travel patterns
long construction times long construction times
ndash ndash Still often highly prized as visible Still often highly prized as visible
ldquo ldquomodernrdquo solutions to transport problemsmodernrdquo solutions to transport problems
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Suburban Rail in Latin America Suburban Rail in Buenos Aires Santiago Satildeo P
aulo Rio and several other Brazilian cities 1048698 Buenos Aires ndash 7 lines 840 kms 8 of trips 1048698 Rio ndash 264 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Satildeo Paulo ndash 6 lines 270 kms 2 of trips 1048698 Santiago ndash 1 line 85 kms ltlt03 of trips
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Metros in Latin America
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme
Metros
High Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirectionHigh Capacity ndash 60PassengersHrDirection High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 High Cost -$40-$150 mnKm 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Capital Costs rarely if ever recovered 1048698 Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox Operating RevenuesOperating costs ndash ldquoFarebox
Ratiordquo (in 1990)Ratiordquo (in 1990)― Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1Mexico City Rio Satildeo Paulo lt 1― Santiago gt 15Santiago gt 15― Policy outcome planning outcome operations outcoPolicy outcome planning outcome operations outco
meme