Next Generation Lighting Webinar
Next GenerationLighting Webinar
November 30, 2010
Next Generation Lighting Webinar
Sample clients
About
Next Generation Lighting Webinar
About the Presenter
Laura Moorefield, LC
Senior Manager, Policy & Research
This presentation is drawn from talks that Laura and Chris Calwell (Ecos founder and Senior Research Fellow) have delivered across the country over the past two years, and most recently, at the October 4-5, 2010, ENERGY STAR Partner Meeting in Denver.
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Key Topics Addressed
•How will new federal laws affect the residential lighting market?•How will the mix of lighting technologies change in the near term?•How should utilities shift their focus to achieve the greatest net energy savings cost-effectively?
Utilities can continue to run cost-effective residential lighting
programs before and after the new federal laws take effect.
The main take-away
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Utility CFL Programs Have Made Tremendous Strides
• Utilities have paid rebates on hundreds of millions of CFLs nationwide since the early 1990s, saving billions of kWh
• At least 109 U.S. utilities are currently running lighting programs, with a total budget of more than $252 million.
• More than 90% of consumers are now aware of CFLs• About 70% of national households now contain at least one CFL• CFLs have achieved a national socket share of about 16% and represent about
20-25% of screw-based general service bulb unit sales• Roughly 3,000 qualifying general service CFL models listed on the
ENERGY STAR website• CFLs have become far smaller, more widely available, and more affordable – now
commonly available in many types of stores for $2 to $5 apiece without utility rebates
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But, the Market is Not Transformed
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
CA MA CT NYC WI CO KS NYS IN MI MD PA OH GA DC Houston
CFL S
ocke
t Sat
urati
on (%
)
Per Household Mean Per Household Median
CFL socket saturations are as high as 20-30% in some parts of the country, depending on how we measure it.
Source: NMR Group Inc, "Final CFL Modeling Report" (2010)
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News of the Incandescent’s Death Has Been Greatly Exaggerated…
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What Will EISA Really Do?
• EISA does not ban incandescent technology; it sets minimum efficiency requirements for lamps. Many halogen incandescent lamps are available today that pass EISA.
• Phases in Tier 1 efficiency requirements for 40 – 100 W general purpose (household) lamps starting in 2012
• Provides weaker requirements for modified spectrum lamps• Exempts 5 lamp types unless sales increase substantially:
• Includes provisions for a tougher Tier 2 in 2020• Requires review and update of current FTC lamp labeling• Allows Nevada & California to enact EISA one year early, or to
keep existing state standards in place
- 3-way lamps- Rough service lamps- Shatter proof lamps
- Vibration service lamps- 2,601 – 3,000 lumen lamps
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EISA’s General Service Incandescent Lamp Standards
EISA Effective
Dates
Power
(watts)
Light Output
(lumens)
Efficiency (lumens/watt)
Std.
Incan.EISA
MaximumStd.
Incan. EISA
RangesStd.
Incan. EISA
Minimum
1/1/2012 100 72 1690 1118 - 2600 16.9 15.5 – 36
1/1/2013 75 53 1170 788 - 1489 15.6 14.9 – 28
1/1/2014 60 43 840 563 - 1049 14.0 13.1 – 24
1/1/2014 40 29 490 232 - 749 12.3 8.0 – 26
The way the EISA law is drafted requires manufacturers to reduce wattage, but allows them to greatly reduce light output as well, particularly with modified spectrum bulbs.
As a result, many of the incandescent bulbs sold after EISA takes effect will be far dimmer and similar in efficiency to the standard soft white incandescent bulbs sold today.
Utilities can help pull the market toward better choices than these minimally compliant bulbs.
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Emerging Technologies Offer More Energy-Efficient General Service Lighting Options
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New Incandescents are Not Created Equal:Comparison of EISA Compliant “100 W Equivalent” Lamps
Barely EISA MS Compliant72 W, 1250 lumens
17.4 lm/W
Barely EISA SS Compliant
72 W, 1490 lumens20.6 lm/W
2x Incandescent50 W, 1600 lumens
32 lm/W
Visible light transmitted
Infrared light reflected, absorbed
by filamentSource: ADLT
Today’s 100 W lamp: 1690 lumens, 16.9 lm/W (not EISA compliant)
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Amazon.com Customer Comments On EISA-Compliant EcoVantage Modified Spectrum Lamps
• “I have been looking for energy saving light bulbs that don't have mercury - EcoVantage is the answer. The light quality is similar to what I use now and I like the fact that I'm saving on my electric bills. I would recommend this product to anyone looking for an energy saving alternative to CFL's.”
• “I love these bulbs! They are so bright. I hate those twist bulbs but wanted to switch to something that is energy saving. I love that they don't have mercury - I really feel like I am doing something for the environment!”
• Lamp reviewed: 630 lumens, 43 W, 14.65 lm/W – Advertised as 60 W equivalent
• Today’s 60 W typical soft white: 840 lumens, 14 lm/W
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EISA Shifts the Baseline and Presents New Program Challenges
• For a long time, the “story” has been very simple: CFLs good. Incandescents bad.
• Now the consumer education story is more complicated, but also more honest: there is no one right lighting technology for every application. We need a portfolio of options for different applications and customer needs.
• Implications:
– Net savings from each rebated product will be smaller, but incremental costs will go down
– Is a shift to specialty CFLs a move in the right direction?
– Residential lighting programs will still cost less than generating electricity
– Net to gross ratios for CFLs vary enormously today and may get worse.
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New FTC Labels Address Lumen Output & Energy Costs, but Not Wattage Equivalency
14
New Front Package Label New Back Package Label
Existing FTC Label
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New Lamp Wattages and Wattage Equivalence Claims Are Proliferating
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Education Will Be Needed to Help ConsumersChoose Bulbs Based on Lumens, not Watts
Consumer is trying to replace:
Watts Lumens Technology
60 800 Incandescent
Options in store (2014):
Watts Lumens Technology Savings Result
8 800 LED 52 W Maximum achievable savings
13 800 CFL 47 WMuch more savings than required by EISA, same amount of light.
43 800 IR Halogen 17 WThis is what EISA intended.
Same light output, lower wattage.
53 1100 Halogen 7 WLess savings than intended, more
light than is needed.
53↓
72
600↓
800
Modified Spectrum Halogen
7↓
-12 W
Less savings than intended, not enough light. Customer may
upgrade to brighter bulb, using more energy
?
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Australia’s New Consumer Education Approach
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U.S. DOE’s New Consumer Education Approach
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Program Options for Replacing Today’s 60 W Incandescent Bulbs – The Portfolio Approach
Today’s incandescent
bulbs: inefficient but inexpensive
Today’s CFLs: more efficient than
incandescent bulbs, but behave
differently and cannot substitute
for all lighting applications
EISA cuts
power use by about 30%
Compliant bulbsalready on the
market, but dimmer than
standard incandescents
Improved CFLs and LEDs
could yield even greater
savings
Super-efficient, bright incandescents
could fill the gap between CFLs and
lamps that just barely meet EISA
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40 W Equiv
60 W Equiv
100 W Equiv
75 W Equiv
0
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20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Lu
me
ns
/Watt
Lumens
EISA (Standard Spec) Typ Incandescents Energy Star CFLs
EISA-Compliant HIR EISA-Compliant Halogens Advanced HIR capsules
2x Incandescent 2007 LED A-Lamps 2008 LED A-lamps
2009 LED A-lamps 2010 LED A-lamps EISA (Modified Spec)
EISA-Compliant Mod Spec Halogen
Emerging Technologies Offer More Energy-Efficient GSL Replacement Options
CFLs
LEDs 2x Incandescent
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2010
2009
Technology Projections*
* Based on DOE SSL R&D Multi-Year Roadmap (Cool White/Warm White ranges)
2015
2012
General Service LEDs are Getting Brighter and Meeting DOE’s Efficiency Targets
60 W Eq. 75 W Eq.
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Watts Saved by Various Replacement Technologies Before and After EISA
20102011201220132014
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Utilities Use a Wide Range of Assumptions to Calculate CFL Program Cost Effectiveness
NTG table source: U.S. DOE, 2010, ENERGY STAR CFL Market Profile
Costs Per CFL Benefits Per CFL
Incremental Cost
Hours/day Watts Saved
Measure Life
(Years)
Net to Gross Ratio
Lifetime Savings (kWh)
National Range <$1.00 - $3.00 1.9 – 3 38 – 52 1.3 – 10 0.19 – 9.17 <100 – 500+
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Modeled Program Costs for Lifetime kWh Savings
Note: Utility costs/kWh are total program costs divided by lifetime savings; they are not levelized costs.
4.0 ¢ / kWh2.0 ¢ / kWh
1.0 ¢ / kWh
0.5 ¢ / kWh
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Putting Efficiency Program Costs in Context
Program Type Approximate Costs
Today’s CFL Programs 0.5-1.0 ¢ / lifetime kWh saved
Future CFL or LED Programs (estimated)
1.5-2.5 ¢ / lifetime kWh saved
National Average for All Residential Efficiency Programs
3 ¢ / lifetime kWh saved
Typical Operating Costs for Existing Power Plants
3 - 5 ¢ / kWh generated
New Natural Gas Power Plants
(no CO2 capture)
5 - 7 ¢ / kWh generated
CFL or other residential lighting efficiency programs after EISA may cost more than they do today, but are still likely to cost less than other utility-run efficiency programs and power plants.
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How Much Lighting Energy Can Be Saved in a Typical House?
-16%
-51%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
All Incandescents 80% Incandescents -20% CFLs
(National Average)
Portfolio of CFLs, LEDs and 2x Incandescents
Ann
ual L
ighti
ng E
nerg
y U
se (k
Wh)
Three Scenarios for Lighting Energy Use in a Typical Home
(50 medium screw-based sockets)
Other
Reflector
General Service
- 16%
- 51%
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Conclusions
• EISA does not ban incandescent bulbs
• Utilities can continue to run cost-effective residential lighting programs before and after the new federal laws take effect
• Confusion about the new lighting technologies will be high – consider shifting some of your incentive budgets to consumer education
• Next generation lighting programs will include a mix of technologies—CFLs, LEDs, 2x incandescents, and perhaps others—that will meet the wide variety of consumer needs
• New technologies and program approaches can cut residential lighting energy use in half over the next decade – saving more energy than CFLs have saved over the last 20 years
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Contact Information
Ted SchultzSVP Strategy & InnovationCharlotte, [email protected]
M 704-905-4305
Visit our Next Generation lighting sitewww.ecosconsulting.com/nextgen
Questions and Answers
Laura Moorefield
Senior Manager, Research & PolicyDurango, [email protected]
T 970-259-6801 ext. 310
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Extra Slides
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CFL Imports Have Rebounded after Sharp Declines during the Economic Downturn in 2008 and 2009
Data Source: USA Trade Online
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100
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400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
CF
L Im
po
rts
(Mill
ion
s)
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
U.S. Screw-Based CFL Imports
20.7
69.151.6
65.8
93.5 101.7
184.7
397.1
337.5
271.7
181.3
Source: Ecos Analysis of USA Trade Online Data
2010 set record for highest imports in 1st half of year