Next Generation Lighting Webinar Next Generation Lighting Webinar November 30, 2010

Next Generation Lighting Webinar

Next GenerationLighting Webinar

November 30, 2010


Sample clients

About


About the Presenter

Laura Moorefield, LC

Senior Manager, Policy & Research

This presentation is drawn from talks that Laura and Chris Calwell (Ecos founder and Senior Research Fellow) have delivered across the country over the past two years, and most recently, at the October 4-5, 2010, ENERGY STAR Partner Meeting in Denver.


Key Topics Addressed

•How will new federal laws affect the residential lighting market?•How will the mix of lighting technologies change in the near term?•How should utilities shift their focus to achieve the greatest net energy savings cost-effectively?

Utilities can continue to run cost-effective residential lighting

programs before and after the new federal laws take effect.

The main take-away


Utility CFL Programs Have Made Tremendous Strides

• Utilities have paid rebates on hundreds of millions of CFLs nationwide since the early 1990s, saving billions of kWh

• At least 109 U.S. utilities are currently running lighting programs, with a total budget of more than $252 million.

• More than 90% of consumers are now aware of CFLs• About 70% of national households now contain at least one CFL• CFLs have achieved a national socket share of about 16% and represent about

20-25% of screw-based general service bulb unit sales• Roughly 3,000 qualifying general service CFL models listed on the

ENERGY STAR website• CFLs have become far smaller, more widely available, and more affordable – now

commonly available in many types of stores for $2 to $5 apiece without utility rebates


But, the Market is Not Transformed

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CA MA CT NYC WI CO KS NYS IN MI MD PA OH GA DC Houston

CFL S

ocke

t Sat

urati

on (%

)

Per Household Mean Per Household Median

CFL socket saturations are as high as 20-30% in some parts of the country, depending on how we measure it.

Source: NMR Group Inc, "Final CFL Modeling Report" (2010)


News of the Incandescent’s Death Has Been Greatly Exaggerated…


What Will EISA Really Do?

• EISA does not ban incandescent technology; it sets minimum efficiency requirements for lamps. Many halogen incandescent lamps are available today that pass EISA.

• Phases in Tier 1 efficiency requirements for 40 – 100 W general purpose (household) lamps starting in 2012

• Provides weaker requirements for modified spectrum lamps• Exempts 5 lamp types unless sales increase substantially:

• Includes provisions for a tougher Tier 2 in 2020• Requires review and update of current FTC lamp labeling• Allows Nevada & California to enact EISA one year early, or to

keep existing state standards in place

- 3-way lamps- Rough service lamps- Shatter proof lamps

- Vibration service lamps- 2,601 – 3,000 lumen lamps


EISA’s General Service Incandescent Lamp Standards

EISA Effective

Dates

Power

(watts)

Light Output

(lumens)

Efficiency (lumens/watt)

Std.

Incan.EISA

MaximumStd.

Incan. EISA

RangesStd.

Incan. EISA

Minimum

1/1/2012 100 72 1690 1118 - 2600 16.9 15.5 – 36

1/1/2013 75 53 1170 788 - 1489 15.6 14.9 – 28

1/1/2014 60 43 840 563 - 1049 14.0 13.1 – 24

1/1/2014 40 29 490 232 - 749 12.3 8.0 – 26

The way the EISA law is drafted requires manufacturers to reduce wattage, but allows them to greatly reduce light output as well, particularly with modified spectrum bulbs.

As a result, many of the incandescent bulbs sold after EISA takes effect will be far dimmer and similar in efficiency to the standard soft white incandescent bulbs sold today.

Utilities can help pull the market toward better choices than these minimally compliant bulbs.


Emerging Technologies Offer More Energy-Efficient General Service Lighting Options


New Incandescents are Not Created Equal:Comparison of EISA Compliant “100 W Equivalent” Lamps

Barely EISA MS Compliant72 W, 1250 lumens

17.4 lm/W

Barely EISA SS Compliant

72 W, 1490 lumens20.6 lm/W

2x Incandescent50 W, 1600 lumens

32 lm/W

Visible light transmitted

Infrared light reflected, absorbed

by filamentSource: ADLT

Today’s 100 W lamp: 1690 lumens, 16.9 lm/W (not EISA compliant)


Amazon.com Customer Comments On EISA-Compliant EcoVantage Modified Spectrum Lamps

• “I have been looking for energy saving light bulbs that don't have mercury - EcoVantage is the answer. The light quality is similar to what I use now and I like the fact that I'm saving on my electric bills. I would recommend this product to anyone looking for an energy saving alternative to CFL's.”

• “I love these bulbs! They are so bright. I hate those twist bulbs but wanted to switch to something that is energy saving. I love that they don't have mercury - I really feel like I am doing something for the environment!”

• Lamp reviewed: 630 lumens, 43 W, 14.65 lm/W – Advertised as 60 W equivalent

• Today’s 60 W typical soft white: 840 lumens, 14 lm/W


EISA Shifts the Baseline and Presents New Program Challenges

• For a long time, the “story” has been very simple: CFLs good. Incandescents bad.

• Now the consumer education story is more complicated, but also more honest: there is no one right lighting technology for every application. We need a portfolio of options for different applications and customer needs.

• Implications:

– Net savings from each rebated product will be smaller, but incremental costs will go down

– Is a shift to specialty CFLs a move in the right direction?

– Residential lighting programs will still cost less than generating electricity

– Net to gross ratios for CFLs vary enormously today and may get worse.


New FTC Labels Address Lumen Output & Energy Costs, but Not Wattage Equivalency

14

New Front Package Label New Back Package Label

Existing FTC Label


New Lamp Wattages and Wattage Equivalence Claims Are Proliferating


Education Will Be Needed to Help ConsumersChoose Bulbs Based on Lumens, not Watts

Consumer is trying to replace:

Watts Lumens Technology

60 800 Incandescent

Options in store (2014):

Watts Lumens Technology Savings Result

8 800 LED 52 W Maximum achievable savings

13 800 CFL 47 WMuch more savings than required by EISA, same amount of light.

43 800 IR Halogen 17 WThis is what EISA intended.

Same light output, lower wattage.

53 1100 Halogen 7 WLess savings than intended, more

light than is needed.

53↓

72

600↓

800

Modified Spectrum Halogen

7↓

-12 W

Less savings than intended, not enough light. Customer may

upgrade to brighter bulb, using more energy

?


Australia’s New Consumer Education Approach


U.S. DOE’s New Consumer Education Approach


Program Options for Replacing Today’s 60 W Incandescent Bulbs – The Portfolio Approach

Today’s incandescent

bulbs: inefficient but inexpensive

Today’s CFLs: more efficient than

incandescent bulbs, but behave

differently and cannot substitute

for all lighting applications

EISA cuts

power use by about 30%

Compliant bulbsalready on the

market, but dimmer than

standard incandescents

Improved CFLs and LEDs

could yield even greater

savings

Super-efficient, bright incandescents

could fill the gap between CFLs and

lamps that just barely meet EISA


40 W Equiv

60 W Equiv

100 W Equiv

75 W Equiv

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Lu

me

ns

/Watt

Lumens

EISA (Standard Spec) Typ Incandescents Energy Star CFLs

EISA-Compliant HIR EISA-Compliant Halogens Advanced HIR capsules

2x Incandescent 2007 LED A-Lamps 2008 LED A-lamps

2009 LED A-lamps 2010 LED A-lamps EISA (Modified Spec)

EISA-Compliant Mod Spec Halogen

Emerging Technologies Offer More Energy-Efficient GSL Replacement Options

CFLs

LEDs 2x Incandescent


2010

2009

Technology Projections*

* Based on DOE SSL R&D Multi-Year Roadmap (Cool White/Warm White ranges)

2015

2012

General Service LEDs are Getting Brighter and Meeting DOE’s Efficiency Targets

60 W Eq. 75 W Eq.


Watts Saved by Various Replacement Technologies Before and After EISA

20102011201220132014


Utilities Use a Wide Range of Assumptions to Calculate CFL Program Cost Effectiveness

NTG table source: U.S. DOE, 2010, ENERGY STAR CFL Market Profile

Costs Per CFL Benefits Per CFL

Incremental Cost

Hours/day Watts Saved

Measure Life

(Years)

Net to Gross Ratio

Lifetime Savings (kWh)

National Range <$1.00 - $3.00 1.9 – 3 38 – 52 1.3 – 10 0.19 – 9.17 <100 – 500+


Modeled Program Costs for Lifetime kWh Savings

Note: Utility costs/kWh are total program costs divided by lifetime savings; they are not levelized costs.

4.0 ¢ / kWh2.0 ¢ / kWh

1.0 ¢ / kWh

0.5 ¢ / kWh


Putting Efficiency Program Costs in Context

Program Type Approximate Costs

Today’s CFL Programs 0.5-1.0 ¢ / lifetime kWh saved

Future CFL or LED Programs (estimated)

1.5-2.5 ¢ / lifetime kWh saved

National Average for All Residential Efficiency Programs

3 ¢ / lifetime kWh saved

Typical Operating Costs for Existing Power Plants

3 - 5 ¢ / kWh generated

New Natural Gas Power Plants

(no CO2 capture)

5 - 7 ¢ / kWh generated

CFL or other residential lighting efficiency programs after EISA may cost more than they do today, but are still likely to cost less than other utility-run efficiency programs and power plants.


How Much Lighting Energy Can Be Saved in a Typical House?

-16%

-51%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

All Incandescents 80% Incandescents -20% CFLs

(National Average)

Portfolio of CFLs, LEDs and 2x Incandescents

Ann

ual L

ighti

ng E

nerg

y U

se (k

Wh)

Three Scenarios for Lighting Energy Use in a Typical Home

(50 medium screw-based sockets)

Other

Reflector

General Service

- 16%

- 51%


Conclusions

• EISA does not ban incandescent bulbs

• Utilities can continue to run cost-effective residential lighting programs before and after the new federal laws take effect

• Confusion about the new lighting technologies will be high – consider shifting some of your incentive budgets to consumer education

• Next generation lighting programs will include a mix of technologies—CFLs, LEDs, 2x incandescents, and perhaps others—that will meet the wide variety of consumer needs

• New technologies and program approaches can cut residential lighting energy use in half over the next decade – saving more energy than CFLs have saved over the last 20 years


Contact Information

Ted SchultzSVP Strategy & InnovationCharlotte, [email protected]

M 704-905-4305

Visit our Next Generation lighting sitewww.ecosconsulting.com/nextgen

Questions and Answers

Laura Moorefield

Senior Manager, Research & PolicyDurango, [email protected]

T 970-259-6801 ext. 310


Extra Slides


CFL Imports Have Rebounded after Sharp Declines during the Economic Downturn in 2008 and 2009

Data Source: USA Trade Online

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450

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CF

L Im

po

rts

(Mill

ion

s)

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

U.S. Screw-Based CFL Imports

20.7

69.151.6

65.8

93.5 101.7

184.7

397.1

337.5

271.7

181.3

Source: Ecos Analysis of USA Trade Online Data

2010 set record for highest imports in 1st half of year

Documents

Next Generation Lighting Webinar Next Generation Lighting Webinar November 30, 2010