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  • Analiza technicznawykad 2Uwagi o szeregach czasowychrednie kroczce

  • LiteraturaMurphy J. J. Analiza techniczna rynkw finansowychSchwager J. D. Analiza techniczna rynkw terminowychPring M. J. Podstawy analizy technicznejAchelis S. Analiza techniczna od A do ZKomar Z. Sztuka spekulacjiSopoko A. Instrumenty finansowe

  • Szeregi czasoweSzereg czasowy to realizacja procesu stochastycznego, ktrego dziedzin jest czas. (Jest to cig danych, uporzdkowanych w czasie, dla ktrych pomiary wykonywane s z dokadnym krokiem czasowym). Wrd skadnikw szeregu czasowego moemy wyrni:trend (tendencj rozwojow)wahania koniunkturalnewahania sezonowewahania cykliczne (giedowe)wahania przypadkowe

  • Szeregi czasowe wykrywanie natury zjawiska (np. zmiany cen surowcw) reprezentowanego przez sekwencj obserwacji formalny opis, identyfikacja elementw szeregu czasowego prognozowanie przyszych wartoci szeregu czasowego(ASC opiera si na zaoeniu, e kolejne wartoci w zbiorze danych reprezentuj kolejne pomiary wykonane w rwnych odstpach czasu)

  • Szeregi czasoweSkadowe szeregu czasowego poczone mog by zwizkiemaddytywnym,multiplikatywnym,addytywno-multiplikatywnym.

  • Oglny model addytywny szeregu czasowegoNiech {xt}, t =1,2,,T oznacza szereg czasowy. WtedyXt = zt + kt + st + ct + utgdzie skadnikZt _odpowiada za trend w chwili tkt wielko zwizana z cyklem koniunkturalnymst charakteryzuje sezonowo w chwili t ct jest zwizany z cyklem w chwili t ut jest czynnikiem losowym (zaburzeniem) zmienn losow o zerowej wartoci oczekiwanej (wszystkie ut maj jednakow wariancj i s parami nieskorelowane)

  • Przykadowe skadowe szeregu czasowego

    Wykres13

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    Arkusz1

    0.8461538wspcz.cenawspcz.cenawagacena

    (11/13)^0c(0)11.00000c(0)0.17780c(0)

    (11/13)^1c(-1)20.84615c(-1)0.15044c(-1)

    (11/13)^2c(-2)30.71598c(-2)0.12730c(-2)

    (11/13)^3c(-3)40.60583c(-3)0.10771c(-3)

    (11/13)^4c(-4)50.51262c(-4)0.09114c(-4)

    (11/13)^5c(-5)60.43376c(-5)0.07712c(-5)

    (11/13)^6c(-6)70.36703c(-6)0.06526c(-6)

    (11/13)^7c(-7)80.31056c(-7)0.05522c(-7)

    (11/13)^8c(-8)90.26278c(-8)0.04672c(-8)

    (11/13)^9c(-9)100.22235c(-9)0.03953c(-9)

    (11/13)^10c(-10)110.18815c(-10)0.03345c(-10)

    (11/13)^11c(-11)120.15920c(-11)0.02831c(-11)

    5.62440

    Arkusz1

    wspczynniki cen do 12- sesyjnej redniej wykadniczej

    Arkusz2

    wagi do 12- sesyjnej redniej wykadniczej

    Arkusz3

    cykl8cykl 12cykl 16cykl 248+12trend gTR+8+12+16cykl 10tr+8+10+12(11/13)^nwagi EMA 12

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    Arkusz3

    trend+cykle:8,12,16

    trend+ cykle:8,12,16,24

    /

    trend+cykle:8,10,12

    trend2 letni cykl koniunkttr+konroczna sezonowotr+kon+sezkwartal cosintr+kon+sez+kwartwahania losowetr+kon.+sez.+kwart.+wah

    2517128

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    32552.5-20.1


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