Zaragosa Oct 2004

WATER as a Catalyst for PeaceZaragoza, October 6th to 9th

Case Simulation: Chu-Talas rivers in Kyrgyzstan & Kazakhstan

Evolution of bilateral agreements

By Shammy Puri,Chairman IAH TARM Commission & Co-coordinator of the ISARM Initiative

Saragosa Oct 2004

Structure of the Case Simulations Overview

– Water, Environment & Security– Measuring water poverty– Global freshwater balance

Simulation time spans:– Span I: From the 1800’s to the Soviet era– Span II: to the 1960’s (Khrushchev’s time)– Span III: Contemporary– The future…… (a) business as usual (b)

significant improvements Analysis : alternate outcomes of

simulations

Saragosa Oct 2004

Water, Environment, Security

Water isfundamental to environmental

security

& thus also to human security –

how?

Through ………

its reliable access, even in the face of

increasing demands

261 rivers cross international boundaries

145 nations have part of their territory in a

transboundary river basin

Large part of mankind thus is a

user of transboundary

water

40% of the worlds population lives ‘downstream’ of someone else

Saragosa Oct 2004

The global context

Saragosa Oct 2004

Indicators of Water Poverty IndexResources per capita resource that can be drawn

upon

Access economic capacity to provide safe water supply sanitation, plus irrigation water, to their whole population

Capacity ability to manage, lobby & procure improved water, education & health

Use efficiency of water use (e.g. high irrigation use for low GDP return from agriculture)

Environment

high awareness and regulations (e.g. lack of energy leads to – forest cutting – erosion – sedimentation – dry season flow reduction)

Saragosa Oct 2004

Water Poverty Index

Saragosa Oct 2004

Global freshwater: in ice caps, rivers & aquifers

Saragosa Oct 2004

The region

Lake IssyKul

Saragosa Oct 2004

Time Span I: 1800’s to 1960’s

Aral Sea in 1850

•The data for this time span is limited•So, use the Aral Sea configuration as a ‘counter’

Saragosa Oct 2004

Evolution of Sea

Saragosa Oct 2004

Snow capped TienShan ranges Lake Issy Kul

Saragosa Oct 2004

Time Span II: the Soviet era

Lake IssyKul

•What are the water demands? •What is the land use?•What are the population dynamics?

Talas river

Saragosa Oct 2004

The basin of Talas river

Saragosa Oct 2004

The developing demands in the Talas Are the development priorities of the

two Republics the same or can they be different?

(some?) Irrigation, flood protection, alpine meadows,

forests, etc

(more) irrigation, industry, wetland

biodiversity

Zaragosa Oct 2004

Rivers

Talaskii Canal

Kirov Reservoir

Kaz. / Kyg Border

Talas Catchment

1

5

67

3

10

8

13

4

2

Taraz

Talas

Kirov

Talas Rayon

Kara - Bura Rayon

Bakai-Ata Rayon

Manas Rayon

5

4

3

2

1

6

12

11 9

Kyrgyz Republic

Kazakhstan

The data collection system installed in time span IIWas it effective? Did it prognose the impacts felt today?

Saragosa Oct 2004

Time Span III: contemporary Now, two countries… separate

constitutions, parliaments & priorities

Could the Chu-Talas basins represent, in micorcosm, the ‘bigger’ problem?

Saragosa Oct 2004

The ‘counter’…to today & beyond

Is the Aral Sea an issue of relevance to the newly

independent Republic of Kyrgyzstan?

Saragosa Oct 2004

A snap shot of the problem

Saragosa Oct 2004

Some views

Saragosa Oct 2004

The Chu Basin, with less data

The Chu Oblast

Saragosa Oct 2004

Evolving developments

•Waters rise in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and are used by downstream riparians•Irrigated area was greatly expanded 1950-80 and rivers were regulated•Irrigated agriculture is key to economy and provided jobs for growing population•Dramatic decline in surface of Aral Sea, loss of grazing lands, fisheries, & wetlands, health problems for 3.5 million people from saline groundwater and blowing salts

Saragosa Oct 2004

Some outcomes??Summary:River basins with nearly fully

‘committed’ water resources…Socio – economic priorities that are

asymmetrical……… quo vadis ??

Zaragosa Oct 2004

Kyrgyz Hydro Post Station, River and Name

1. Talas – Ak Tash

2. Talas – 2.6km downstream of inflow of Koshoi

3. Talas – Klouchevka

4. Koshoi – Kara Oi

5. Besh Tash – head of River Saz

6. Urmaral – Oktyabrskoe

7. Kumushtag – head of River Yangi

8. Bakiyan spring – Bakiyan

9. Beysheke –

10. Kara Bura – Koksai gorge

11. Kirovskie spring – mouth

12. Chimkent spring – mouth

13. Kukuryesu - Chonkurchan

Rivers

Talaskii Canal

Kirov Reservoir

Kaz. / Kyg Border

Talas Catchment Hydrometric Network

1

5

67

3

10

8

13

4

2

Taraz

Talas

Kirov

Talas Rayon

Kara - Bura Rayon

Bakai-Ata Rayon

Manas Rayon

Kazakh Hydro Post Station, River and Name

1. Talas – Pakrovka

2. Talas – Solnichni

3. Talas – H/P No 5 - Talas Dam

4. Talas - Temirbet (Dam)

5. Talas – Jambet

6. Talas – Uyuk

Hydropost with Ecology Post for Water Quality Measurements

Ecologic post not attached to Hydropost

5

4

3

2

1

6

12

11 9

Kyrgyz Republic

Kazakhstan

How much is operational ?How much to rehabilitate ?

Saragosa Oct 2004

..where do we go from here?

There are two alternativesBusiness as usualA new paradigm ?

Are there other alternatives , when there is no dispute – but differences in perspective ?

Saragosa Oct 2004

To decide this & other issues..

We need to collaborate … cooperate, harmonise our visions, and harmonise the actions.Through what means……joint

commissions ??…………… and over what sort of

obstacles?

Saragosa Oct 2004

Obstacles ?

Source: Kyle C Robertson (2004)

Zaragosa Oct 2004

Rivers

Talaskii Canal

Kirov Reservoir

Kaz. / Kyg Border

1

5

67

3

10

8

13

4

2

Taraz

Talas

Kirov

Talas Rayon

Kara - Bura Rayon

Bakai-Ata Rayon

Manas Rayon

Kazakh Hydro Post Station, River and Name

1. Talas – Pakrovka

2. Talas – Solnichni

3. Talas – H/P No 5 - Talas Dam

4. Talas - Temirbet (Dam)

5. Talas – Jambet

6. Talas – Uyuk

Hydropost with Ecology Post for Water Quality Measurements

Ecologic post not attached to Hydropost

5

4

3

2

1

6

12

11 9

Kyrgyz Republic

Kazakhstan

Is it the ‘data’ we need? Or is it the wisdom?Do we need LOTS of procedures, regulations, rules?“ rules are made for fools to follow & wise men to bend..”

Saragosa Oct 2004

Where the detail, and where the principle ?

Adaptable management structuresClear, & flexible criteria for water

allocation & quality managementEquitable distribution & benefitsConcrete mechanisms to enforce

treaty mechanismsDetailed conflict resolution

mechanism

Saragosa Oct 2004

Convergence of policies for consistent water resource managementCountry A Country B

Sustainable Water Resource Management Policy

Saragosa Oct 2004

Transboundary waters challenges – national to international

Economics Participation

Regulations

Information

Political Relations

Poverty to Development

Degradation to Sustainability

Insecurity to Security

National priorities Bilateral / multilateral linkages

Saragosa Oct 2004

Alternate outcomes

(Role Playing is Safe).. A land of ‘milk & honey’…A land bitter tea and dry bread…. ? Other ?

Thank you for your participation !!