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ThinkingTwice
Fast Cognition, Slow Cognition, and the Challenge of Critical Thinking
Critical thinking in professional contexts
What is expert thinking?
How does ‘expert error’ happen?
What moderates expert error?
A Tale of Three
Diagnoses
Vertigo
Dr. Dark
Dr. Hope
Dr. Sage
Vertigo
Dr. Dark
Vertigo
Dr. Dark
Dr. Hope
Dr. Sage
Otoliths and the Epley maneuver
Critical thinking in professional contexts
What is expert thinking?
How does ‘expert error’ happen?
What moderates expert error?
What is Expert
Thinking?
Expert thinking / Novice thinking
Pattern recognition
Pattern recognition?
Cognitive crystallization
Routine Expertise / Flexible expertise
Explore analogies with systems they understand better.
Search for potential discrepancies in the analogy.
Access intuitive mental models based on visual and kinesthetic intuition.
Investigate the target system with extreme case arguments, pushing parameters to zero or infinity.
Construct a simpler problem of the same sort.
Routine Expertise / Flexible expertise
Fast cognition / Slow cognition
Rapid pattern recognition and cognitive crystallization, quick intuitive assembly of interpretations
Deliberate reasoning piecing together outputs of fast cognition and provoking further fast-cognition operations
“Thinking twice” – a dual processing model
Fast cognition / Slow cognition
Black box (es)
White box
“Thinking twice – a dual processing model
Dual processing in action
What to do? – Maybe this!
Will it work? – Imagine it!
Maybe not – What else to do?
(increasing elaborative processing)
Recognition-Primed Decision Making
Familiarity zones
Harvard Square
Union Square
Red Square
Familiarity zones
Fast cognition Slow cognition
We live here Richly informed and highly responsive.
Doesn’t have to work very hard to make interpretations.
We visit here Considerably less informative but some resources.
Works harder to piece together a reasonable account.
We’re new hereHelpful only in a generic way, ‘importing’ patterns from other settings
Works very hard to get oriented.
Summary
What is expert thinking?
Expert thinking / Novice thinking
Pattern recognition / Cognitive crystallization
Routine expertise / Flexible expertise
Fast cognition / Slow cognition
Black box(es) / White box
We live here / We visit here / We’re new here
How does ‘expert error’
happen?
Insights / illusions of fast cognition
A deliberate cognitive illusion
Insights / illusions of fast cognition
Natural cognitive illusions
Insights / illusions of fast cognition
Natural cognitive illusions
Insights / illusions of fast cognition
Natural cognitive illusions A penny
saved is worth more than a penny earned.
Insights / illusions of fast cognition
Natural cognitive illusionsSurvival
rates versus morality rates
Insights / illusions of fast cognition
Natural cognitive illusions
Sunk costs
Opportunity costs
Hindsight bias
Confirmation bias
Insights / illusions of fast cognition
The grand illusion
The click of closure
What moderates
‘expert error’?
Naïve expertise / critical expertise
Thinking Twice!
AlertSearching for anomalies
SkepticalScanning for evidential weaknesses and counter evidence
ExploratorySeeking alternative interpretations
Abilities / Dispositions
AlertSearching for anomalies
SkepticalScanning for evidential weaknesses and counter evidence
ExploratorySeeking alternative interpretations
Abilities / Dispositions
Key finding
The moderating function of the slow mind tends to be uncorrelated or only weakly correlated with measures of cognitive ability.
Familiarity zones
Fast cognition Slow cognition
We live here Richly informed and highly responsive.
Doesn’t have to work very hard to make interpretations. But needs to stay awake and monitor for mistakes.
We visit here Considerably less informative but some resources.
Works harder to piece together a reasonable account. But needs to watch out for the ‘at last’ effect.
We’re new hereHelpful only in a generic way, ‘importing’ patterns from other settings
Works very hard to get oriented. But needs to watch out for grasping at straws.
Familiarity zones
Fast cognition Slow cognition
We live here Richly informed and highly responsive.
Doesn’t have to work very hard to make interpretations. But needs to stay awake and monitor for mistakes.
We visit here Considerably less informative but some resources.
Works harder to piece together a reasonable account. But needs to watch out for the ‘at last’ effect.
We’re new hereHelpful only in a generic way, ‘importing’ patterns from other settings
Works very hard to get oriented. But needs to watch out for grasping at straws.
Elsewhere and don't know it.
Functions deceptively, creating an illusion of familiarity.
Functions deceptively, allowing you to construct an interpretation that is wildly off.
Dr. Dark
Summary
How does ‘expert error’ happen / What moderates expert error?
Insights / Illusions of fast cognition
Naïve expertise / Critical expertise
Abilities / Dispositions
Avoiding Dr. Dark
Some Morals for Learning
Particular morals
Learn about troublesome cognitive illusions – framing effects, etc.
Cultivate deliberate critical patterns – e.g. efforts to tell counterstories, ask ‘what if not’
Foster reviews of thinking, as with the military ‘after action review’
… and so on
The Big moral
Slow cognition is not just for building up fast cognition.
It has its own critical function that needs to be developed.
Slow cognition is not just an ability, a bundle of skills and strategies.
It is very much a disposition, a bundle of attitudes and alertness. Especially in its function of moderating expert error.
Think Twice!
