Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The IFCN Dairy Report 2013 For a better understanding of milk production world-wide
Torsten Hemme, IFCN Dairy Research Center at University Kiel
IFCN Dairy Reports+ 14 years cooperation of dairy researcher from 95 countries.
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
IFCN = International Farm Comparison Network
The IFCN is a global dairy network of researchers, companies and other stakeholders who are active in the dairy chain.
The IFCN has a Dairy Research Center with 15 dairy researchers coordinating the network process + running dairy research activities.
The IFCN is independent from third parties and committed to truth, science and reliability of results.
IFCN Dairy
Reserach Center
Researchers
Companies
Turkey Oxford - UK
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
IFCN 2013 - 20 new members dairy related companies and institutions
ILRI/Mann
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
51 Countries analysed in the Farm Comparison
+ 44 Countries participated in the Country Pages
The researchers network 2013 95 countries participating (+5 ; -1 Syria)
Farm Comparison: 51 countries & 61 dairy regions
Country Profile: + 44 countries = 95 countries
Research Network
1995 - 2013
New country - Azerbaijan, Sudan, Turkmenistan, Yemen, Zimbabwe
Move forward – Mexico, US west, WU, Russia
Move backward – Syria,
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
IFCN Dairy Report 2013 officially released
Country coverage:
- 95 country profile analysis
- 51 countries in costs analysis
Comparable data on
- milk production costs
- milk prices
- feed prices
- dairy farm structure
- etc.
Special studies on:
Water footprint in 49 countries,
Real time farm economics method
etc.
NEW
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
IFCN Dairy Report 2013 A summary of it is in the IDF world dairy situation report
Three selected findings:
1. 122 million dairy farms; Ø 2,9 cows, Ø milk yields 2100 kg/cow/year
2. Costs to produce milk in 2012 ranges from 4 - 128 USD per 100 kg milk
Germany: Costs in Germany are 2012 below costs in USA Wisconsin
China: Cost are 50% above the level in US and Germany
3. Dynamics of costs: Costs can double or triple within 3-6 years driven by
prices for feed, land, labour, exchange rates, droughts, etc.
Paradigm shift confirmed:
EU/US: More competitive costs/ milk prices + less subsidies
BRIC / emerging dairy countries: Less competitive in costs / milk prices
+ more subsidies
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use Source: IFCN Dairy Research Center
Costs of milk production 2000 – 2012 Estimate for typical dairy farms
USA, Germany, Poland
30.2 €/
100 kg
17.2 US-$/
CWT
6.8 NZ-$/
kg milk
solids
USA, Germany, Poland
The dairy world in 2023 ?
Contribution: Joint work from researchers in 95 dairy countries and IFCN Dairy Research Center Kiel
Presentation: Torsten Hemme
Product development and preparation: [email protected]
Torsten Hemme, IFCN Dairy Research Center at University Kiel
IFCN Dairy Reports+ 12 years cooperation of dairy researcher from 90 countries.
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Two sentences what we belief
regarding forecasts
1. Predicting the future
shall be done in a dialog.
2. Predicting the future
shall be continued process
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Why an IFCN Baseline?
2011 1. Step 900 mill t in 2025
qualitative work
Why We receive questions about long term future
and think we can improve the existing baseline in dairy
2013 2. Step quantitative work + mile stone in IFCN development
analysis and database for 1996 – 2023
globally consistent and comparable
2014 3. Step refine, improve and deepen after your feedback
in 03/2014 new IFCN Baseline 2025
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use Sources: www.ifcndairy.org
30.2 €/
100 kg
17.2 US-$/
CWT
Comment: Exchange rate: 1 EUR = 1.32 US-$, 1 NZ-$ = 0,805 US-$
IFCN‘s world milk price indicator World market price of milk 1996 – 2013 Sept
1. What price
level to rely on?
2. Whats about
the next swing?
- up/down?
- when to come?
- how high/deap?
44,5 milk price level
at feed price 30-33$/kg
(10% below feed price
level 10/2013 )
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Real time milk production data monthly growth in % 2007 – 9 / 2013
Explanation: Relative change of the 12-months rolling sum of milk production expresses the relative deviation of milk production in a 12 month period compared to the same period one year before.
Countries included represent 92% of world milk production. Data is adjusted for leap year effect.
Change of milk production
to previous year
Key fact of this data
1. 60 countries (> 85% world milk)
2. ECM corrected (4% fat, 3,3%protein)
3. Leap year adjusted
4. real time estimates (1-4 month)
=> a tool to better predict future milk supply
and world supply and demand balance
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
World milk production - Sept 2013 vs. 2012
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Price, margins + milk production 2007 – 6/ 2013 July-Sept - real time estimates
Wolrd milk and feed price
Source: Monthly real time data of milk production, milk & feed prices, status 9/2013
Explanation: Relative change of the 12-months rolling sum of milk production expresses the relative deviation of milk production in a 12 month period compared to the same period one year before.
Countries included represent 92% of world milk production. Data is adjusted for leap year effect.
US
-$ p
er
10
0 k
g
IFCN world feed price
IFCN world milk price
IFCN margin over
compound feed costs % change in milk production
60 countries
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Baseline assumptions
on milk and feed price & uncertainties Wolrd milk and feed price
Source: Monthly real time data of milk production, milk & feed prices, status 9/2013
Explanation: Relative change of the 12-months rolling sum of milk production expresses the relative deviation of milk production in a 12 month period compared to the same period one year before.
Countries included represent 92% of world milk production. Data is adjusted for leap year effect.
US
-$ p
er
10
0 k
g
IFCN world feed price
IFCN world milk price
Milk price assumption 44,5 US-$; 34 euro
Feed price assumption 33 US-$, 25 euro
Uncertainties: There are a lot the key
questions is not what is out there but
what are the biggest 1-5?
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Step 1:
Select 11 variables to
describe the dairy sector
Development of the IFCN Baseline Continual improvement process
Step 4:
Run model
Demand assumptions:
Population growth
Per capita consumption
development
Supply assumptions:
Farm economics: feed
price, milk price
Technical and genetic
progress
Structural change
Step 3:
Make assumptions on key
variables
Step 2:
Define milk and feed prices
for baseline scenario
Step 5:
Validate results
Supply and demand in balance (or restart step 2)
Researcher Network
June 2013 Conference
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Supply & demand balance
Milk supply, demand,
Imports/export
Self sufficiency
Country fact sheets
1996 – 2023
Milk demand details
% growth / year
Population
Per capita consumption
Milk supply details
% growth / year
Cows & milk yield
Farm number and size
IFCN baseline charts for China
© IFCN Dairy Research Center 2013 - for internal use only, status 08.03.13
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
mill
t m
ilk
(M
E o
r E
CM
)
Milk supply and demand
IFCN milk production (all milk)Dairy consumption
-18,0
-16,0
-14,0
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
mill
t m
ilk
(M
E)
Milk balanceSurplus / Deficit
average 1996-2012
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
Self sufficiency in milkSelf sufficiencyaverage 1996-2012
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
Milk production changes
Change in milk production
average 96-06, 06-12
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
t m
ilk
(E
CM
)/ h
ea
d /
ye
ar
mill
he
ad
National herd size and average
milk yield (cow and buffalo)
Number of milk animals
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
milk
an
ima
ls /
fa
rm
farm
s in
1,0
00
Farm number and size
Farm numberAverage farm size
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
Total consumptionChange in dairy consumptionaverage 96-06, 06-12
1.100
1.150
1.200
1.250
1.300
1.350
1.400
1.450
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
Population in million people
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
kg
milk
(M
E)
/ c
ap
ita
/ y
ea
r
Milk consumption per capita
China
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Where will the world be in 10 years? Global results of IFCN Baseline 2023
Data: Milk production and consumption considering all milk (cow, buffalo, sheep, goat, camel)
Variable Results 2023 % change
2023 vs 2012
Milk production +
consumption
1,006 mill t ECM
+ 225 mill t to 2012
+29%
Per capita consumption 111 → 126 kg milk
per capita / year
+ 13%
Population 8 bn +14%
Milk animals 406 million
cows and buffalos
+ 13%
Milk yield 2.1 → 2.4 t ECM / milk
animal / year
+14%
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Significant changes ahead Dairy opportunities 2013-2023
Growth in milk produced and consumed by 10-20
mill t/year or 2.3% annual growth
Growth in milk delivered and processed by 145
mill t or 2.5 – 3% annual growth
Growth via regional movement of milk production
>3% annual change
Growth via milk moving between farm size
segments and farming systems 5-10% or more
Dairy market = growth market
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Milk production 2011
in mill tons ECM
280,00
90,00
10,00
Milk production and share of milk delivered in 2011
EU-27
15384
34
29
30
10
21
42
13832
11
Where will the growth happen? IFCN Baseline results on production growth next 10 years
Sources: Dairy sector database and baseline projection product, Map: IFCN Dairy Report 2012
Delivered 2011
Not delivered 2011
Milk volumes cows & buffalo milk –standardised to 4% fat and 3,3% protein
+ 48%
+ 50% + 50%
+ 22%
+ 25% ? + 22%
+ 22%
+ 11% + 15%
+ 14%
World + 225 mill t, that is +29% or +2.3% per year
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
2,5
2,7
2,9
3,1
3,3
3,5
3,7
3,9
4,1
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
mil
k a
nim
als
/ f
arm
farm
s in
mil
lio
n
Farm numberAverage farm size
Farm number and size consolidation
but with different direction and speed
Large impact of China,
India, Eastern Europe and
CIS
Sources: Dairy sector database and baseline projection product, IFCN Dairy Research Center
World China Poland
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
mil
k a
nim
als
/ f
arm
farm
s in
1,0
00
Farm numberAverage farm size
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
mil
k a
nim
als
/ f
arm
farm
s in
1,0
00
Farm numberAverage farm size
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
surplus
deficit
44,00
10,00
2,00
Surplus and deficit of milk 2012
EU-27
16.1
21.4
2.5
-6.1
-5.8
2.4
2.9
0.2
-0.9
- 0.1
Milk surplus and deficit in 2012 in mill. t Milk Equivalent (ME)
NZ
Driving question:
How will the bullets look like in 10 years?
50,00
15,00
2,50
2012 milk surplus in mill t ME 2012 milk deficit in mill t ME
Sources: Dairy sector database product, IFCN Dairy Research Center
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use 60,00
20,00
3,00
Surplus and deficit of milk 2023
EU-27
27.1
26.7
3.2
-6.2
-16.0
7.9
8.6
-2.1
-4.9
- 0.3
Milk surplus and deficit in 2023 in mill. t Milk Equivalent (ME)
NZ
50,00
15,00
2,50
2023 milk surplus in mill t ME 2023 milk deficit in mill t ME
Sources: Dairy sector database and baseline projection product, IFCN Dairy Research Center
+ 11
+ 8,5
29,7
+ 5,5
+ 5
+ 5
+ 0,7
On the export side we see EU+ NZ with highest volume growth
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use 60,00
20,00
3,00
Surplus and deficit of milk 2023
EU-27
27.1
26.7
3.2
-6.2
-16.0
7.9
8.6
-2.1
-4.9
- 0.3
Milk surplus and deficit in 2023 in mill. t Milk Equivalent (ME)
NZ
50,00
15,00
2,50
2023 milk surplus in mill t ME 2023 milk deficit in mill t ME
Sources: Dairy sector database and baseline projection product, IFCN Dairy Research Center
More imports f. China, Southeast Asia, Africa, Middle east
+ “new” larger importers like Brazil, India, etc.
6
6
10
4
1 5
5
29,7
© IFCN 2013 – for internal use
Taking home messages
The dairy world 2023
Content highlights – Strongest supply growth in South Asia, Africa, parts of South America
– Maximum dairy farm numbers most likely reached in 2012
– Share of dairy trade will rise from 8% to 10%
Source: IFCN Dairy Research Center
We are in a growth market – Milk production reaching 1,000 mill t ECM (+2.3% / year)
– Higher growth rates in milk delivery, regional milk movements,…
Method highlights – 2013 IFCN Dairy Baseline – global coverage, comparable data,…
– 2014 updated version in March incl. method improvements planned
So any feedback on content or method from your side is very welcome
