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Panel UpdateJanuary 10th, 2007

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Background & Objective

• Background– Two significant developments mark the commencement of the Year

2007• Expansion of the TAM Panel &• The Conditional Access System implementation in the CAS-mandated

areas of Mumbai, Delhi & Kolkatta

– Both the above developments would raise questions and could giverise to concerns

• Objective– This document is an attempt to help you get a grasp of the two

developments

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Panel Expansion

Why & How?

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The Coverage Dilemma

• Over the years, this has been one of the most critical and frequently explored topics

• Coverage is determined by..– The TV Universe spread and profile– The desired level of measurement (how finely users will want to slice the

data)– The investments stake-holders are comfortable making

• The JIB-appointed Research Design Sub-Committee (RDSC) had, way back in 2002-3 explored the coverage dilemma & based on the above stated parameters, concluded…– TAM should expand to cover Urban, Class I towns

• If we dwell into the NRS 2006 TV Universe, some interesting facts emerge..

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The Urban Class I towns as a cluster, have a 83% TV Penetration

& a 78% Cable Penetration

51%

78%

83%

39%

61%

77%

78%

48%

All India

Urban

Urban Class I

Rural

TV Penetration C&S Penetration

NRS 2006 – The TV UniverseUrban TV Home Distribution

Below Class I25%

Class I75%

Urban C&S Home Distribution

Below Class I23%

Class I77%

TV Penetration = (TV Homes/Total Homes) *100 ; C&S Penetration = (C&S Homes/TV Homes)*100

The Urban Class I towns, account for 75% of Urban TV Homes & 77% of Urban

C&S Homes

Both of the above facts in combination, make the Urban Class I towns an extremely prudent, optimized coverage for the TAM service

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WHY… expand the TAM Panel?

• Any panel, whether it is for measuring TV habits or product consumption is constructed to represent a universe (or a section thereof)

• A panel therefore needs to be aligned periodically, to represent the universe adequately

• The periodicity (of the panel alignment) is determined by

– The availability of a Universe Establishment study (in the TAM case – the TV Establishment

Survey, which is conducted as a rider on the NRS) &

– The quantum of change in the universe

• In matured markets, panel alignments are few and far in-between as the changes in the universe will not be of significant proportions – the Indian TV marketplace on the other hand, continues to rapidly evolve

• As the panel alignment is largely dictated by the quantum of change observed in the universe, let us explore this in greater detail…

-Mn Hhs

Mn Hhs

+35% + 67% + 121%

+ 29 Mn + 27 Mn + 27 Mn

112 Mn

82 Mn41 Mn

68 Mn49 Mn

22 Mn

Source : NRS

On an All India level…

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Within Urban, Class I towns…

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21% Growth in TV owning & 46% Growth in C&S Households

50% Growth

46% Growth

23% Growth

21% Growth

Source : NRS

*Penetration

TV Households

C&S Households

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The Growth is also significantly different across SEC…

62% Growth

56% Growth

31% Growth

41% Growth

46% Growth

In 2006, NRS

Source : NRS

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C&S , Color TV and Remote penetration across markets has also

shown significant changes

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79% CS penetration at All India Level, And Atleast 8 TAM markets cross 90% CS penetration

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25 of 26 Markets above the 75% Color TV penetration mark

Source : NRS 2002 and 2006

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85% Remote penetration at All India Level within C&S homes…

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The TV landscape has seen rapid changes…

• Color TV penetration has gone up to 88% (from 65% in 2002) in 2006

• The Remote ownership has gone up to 85% (from 65% in 2002) within C&S

• Avg Household size has come down from 5.20 in 2002 to 5.02 in 2006

• Market Wise Analysis show significant differences

– 16 of 26 TAM markets have greater than 75% of CS penetration (8 markets have more

than 90% CS penetration)

– 22 of 26 markets exhibit more than 10% growth in Color TV penetration (Max being 26%

& 14 markets with greater than 90% color TV penetration)

– Average household size differs across markets 6.1 for UP 0.1-1 Mn while 4.2 for TN 1

Mn+

– The market strata adds towns across states, with the nature of the town cluster

changing its form & constituency

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And What has happened on the Consumer Behavior front…

325+ TV stations & Fragmentation is on a Rise

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No of Channels contributing to 80% of viewership has steadily been rising across years…

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And the dependence on Top 5 channels has been coming down…

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The Viewership differences are highlighted across the different SEC’s

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And as a result, specific Program TVR continue to slide down……. Special content, the way to go!

Source: TAM Peoplemeter System TG : CS 4+ Market: Hindi Speaking

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The Expansion Design!!!

And what makes it a mammoth of an exercise!

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A quick measure of the mammoth task

• DESIGN– Town Selection Moving from 70 to 148 towns, a 100% inc!– Meters Moving from 4800 to 7000 meters, a 50% inc!

• IMPLEMENTATION – Technology Moving from Analog to Digital– Data Processing Moving from 22,000 to 35,000 respondents– Time Plan By Jan 1st 2007!

• USER IMPLICATIONS Smooth Migration & Expansion

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Why the additional towns…?

• The need for additional towns has been driven by three predominant factors –

1. A significant number of towns have migrated across population strata (e.g. The number of towns in Urban Class I increased from 300, as per NRS 2002 to 388, as per NRS 2005)

– Our mandate is to sample all class I towns, hence these towns need to be individually sampled

2. To ensure adequate representative sample towns for smaller strata, a statistical analysis indicated a need for further addition of towns (with sampling controls at the 5-10L, 2-5L & 1-2L town stratums respectively)

3. Given the large & ‘new TV consuming segment’ highlighted by the TV Establishment Survey, broadcasters & advertisers will require to study this set in much greater detail => only possible if a greater sample with enhanced statistical representation is made available

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Overall Sampling…

• Overall Sample Size increase by 50%– Metro Sample jump up by 15%– Hindi Speaking Markets up 72%– East increases 59%– South increases 31%

• New Sample Design splits 1-5L stratum as 1-2L and 2-5L for better control

• New States like Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal sampled & reported within earlier (MP & UP) definitions as MP+ & UP+ respectively

• Coverage remaining the same, WB & Rajasthan add 2 stratums (1Mn+, in addition to 0.1-1Mn)

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Town Selection

How has this changed?

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How have Population Strata changed?

Figs indicates No of towns in indicated Population Stratum

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What are the implications on Town selection?

• Cover larger no of towns to represent existing Markets and…– No. of towns representing per State go up – Avg. 12 towns– Total towns – 148 towns (142 towns + 6 Mega Metros)

• Include new population strata in some states which have emerged

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The towns are also selected to account for the SCRs’…

S t a t e s S C R ' s S t a t e s S C R ' sA n d h r a ( E ) D a n d a k a r a n y a ( O r i s s a )A n d h r a ( W ) G o n d w a n a - O r i s s aR a y a l s e e m a O r i s s a H i l l s & P l a t e a u ( W )T e l e n g a n a ( N ) O r i s s a H i l l s & P l a t e a u ( E )T e l e n g a n a ( S ) C o a s t a l O r i s s a ( K a l i n g a )C h h a t t i s g a r h & G o n d w a n a ( S ) N o r t h P u n j a b P l a i n sB a s e l k h a n d ( C h h a t i s g a r h ) S o u t h P u n j a b P l a i n sD a n d a k a r a n y a ( C h h a t t i s g a r h ) B i s h t D o a b ( B e a s - S a t l u j ) & E . P .

D e l h i D e l h i H i m a c h a l P r a d e s hS a u r a s h t r a ( K a t h i a w a r ) E a s t e r n H a r y a n aK a c h c h h W e s t e r n H a r y a n aB h i l i s t a n - G u j a r a t M a r u P r a d e s h ( M a r w a r ) ( S )G u j a r a t P l a i n s M a r u P r a d e s h ( M a r w a r ) ( N )O l d M y s o r e J a i p u r ( A r a v a l l i s )K a n a r a ( S ) M e w a tK a n a r a ( N ) M e w a r ( S )K a r n a t a k a ( D e c c a n ) M e w a r ( N )M a l n a d P o n d i c h e r r yM a l a b a r ( N o r t h K e r a l a ) M a d r a sK o c h i ( C e n t r a l K e r a l a ) C o i m b a t o r eC e n t r a l T r a v a n c o r e T a n j o r eT r a v a n c o r e ( S o u t h K e r a l a ) M a d u r a iB h u n d e l k h a n d - M P R o h e l k h a n d ( W )B a s e l k h a n d ( M P ) R o h e l k h a n d ( E )N o r t h M a l w a ( E ) B r a j ( W )N o r t h M a l w a ( W ) B r a j ( E )B h i l i s t a n - M P O u d h ( N )S o u t h M a l w a ( W ) O u d h ( W )S o u t h M a l w a ( E ) O u d h ( E )C h h a t t i s g a r h & G o n d w a n a ( N ) M P O u d h ( S )G o a ( M a h a r a s h t r a ) B h u n d e l k h a n d - U PK o n k a n B h o j p u r - U PD e s h ( W e s t e r n G h a t ) ( N ) U t t a r a n c h a l U t t a r k h a n dD e s h ( W e s t e r n G h a t ) ( S ) D a r j i l i n gK h a n d e s h D u a r sM a r a t h w a d a G a n g a D e l t aV i d h a r b a ( E ) R a h rV i d h a r b a ( W )

U t t a r P r a d e s h

W e s t B e n g a l

M a d h y a P r a d e s h

O r i s s a

P u n j a b / H P / C h a n d i g a r h

R a j a s t h a n

T a m i l N a d u / P o n d i c h e r r y

K a r n a t a k a

K e r a l a

M a h a r a s h t r a / G o a

A n d h r a P r a d e s h

C h a t t i s g a r h

G u j a r a tH a r y a n a

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Home Selection

How has this changed?

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How are the homes selected…?

• Homes are selected through a statistical method that ensures the homes adequately represent the market/stratum

• Involves the following steps –– Statistical analysis is undertaken to identify factors that influence

TV viewing– The factors are further categorized into two broad ‘controls’

• Primary : Most influential factors. Maintained at each inter-locking level basis ( 4 SEC x C&S/Terr x 4 Age Groups x 2 Genders)

• Secondary : Lesser influencing factors. Maintained at city/stratum level

• This statistical approach results in stratifying the sample, ensuring robust city/stratum television viewing estimation

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The ‘Primary’ & ‘Secondary’ controls…

New Secondary parameter introduced as control variable while expanding panel

Presence of kids in the age-bands

• 4-9 years &

• 10-14 years

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Sample Distribution (Homes)

Market Existing New

ExpansionMumbai 450 495Calcutta 265 330Delhi 425 470Chennai 255 280Bangalore 255 280Hyderabad 255 2806Metros 1905 2135

Market Existing New

ExpansionRoAP 305 388Gujarat 270 487PHCHP 260 443RoKar 115 221Kerala 220 287RoMah 295 541RoTN 230 375UP+ 330 596RoWB 110 244Orissa 110 143MP+ 215 393Rajasthan 100 334RoStates 2560 4452

Total Homes 4555 6587Total Meters 4800 6917

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Why the technology upgrade (analog->digital)?

• With the government granting DTH rights and with the long pending implementation of CAS, it was critical to be ‘future-ready’

• The deployment of TVM5 Digital meters, does not in any manner hamper/alter viewing of an analog source, hence only has an obvious plus

• The metro markets have been increasingly witnessing a surge of– Plasma/LCD televisions, making the homes owning these type of sets more

sensitive to insertion of frequency monitoring probes from the rear of the TV &

– VCD/DVD release of movies sooner than in the past, thus the measurement of viewing these devices gaining importance

• TVM5 is a non-intrusive meter (probes on & not in the TV, monitor frequency watched) &

• Can also attribute viewing to sources like DVD/VCD players & game consoles

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The New Universe Sizes… MarketC&S Non

C&S Total C&S Non

C&S Total

Mumbai 14238 1098 15336 3298 249 3547Calcutta 9357 1950 11307 2125 438 2563Delhi 12471 2168 14639 2659 422 3081Chennai 6417 49 6465 1577 10 1587Bangalore 5644 264 5908 1423 66 1490Hyderabad 5715 274 5989 1203 53 1256AP 1Mn.+ 2203 49 2251 356 9 366AP .1-1Mn. 5913 535 6447 1393 122 1515Guj 1Mn.+ 6606 2922 9528 1476 649 2125Guj .1-1Mn. 2561 1321 3882 553 277 830Karn .1-1Mn. 4829 908 5737 1071 193 1265Ker 1Mn.+ 918 244 1162 225 67 292Ker .1-1Mn. 2901 637 3538 688 143 831MP 1Mn.+ 2482 1323 3805 522 278 800MP .1-1Mn. 3814 2794 6608 776 552 1328Mah 1Mn.+ 4304 2838 7142 1009 651 1659Mah .1-1Mn. 4439 3295 7733 969 688 1656Ori .1-1Mn. 1555 1080 2636 356 231 586Pun 1Mn.+ 3269 432 3701 690 87 777Pun 1-10 5126 1715 6841 1128 374 1501Raj 1Mn.+ 1188 1221 2409 229 229 458Raj .1-1Mn. 2267 2185 4452 449 402 851TN 1Mn.+ 2313 82 2395 611 23 634TN .1-1Mn. 5490 218 5708 1392 57 1449UP 1Mn.+ 6035 2989 9024 1092 518 1610UP .1-1Mn. 6093 4526 10619 1122 782 1905WB 1Mn.+ 708 483 1191 147 94 241WB .1-1Mn. 2758 631 3389 646 143 789All India 131614 38229 169843 29186 7805 36991Base* - NRS 2006 projected to 1Jan 2007

Individuals Household

• The TAM Universe is a projected 2007 universe basis…

• The NRS 2006 TV universe plus

• Growth rate applied for 2007 (computed from the CAGR witnessed by each stratum from census 2001 over 1991)

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Post-CAS/Digital Regime

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What proportion of C&S homes come under CAS?

• Only 20% of city C&S homes come under CAS Zone 1

Metros

Total HHlds TV Owning HHlds Cable HHlds Total HHlds TV Owning HHlds Cable HHlds

Mumbai 4102 3500 3254 636 572 544

Delhi 3339 3023 2608 761 723 651

Kolkata 3180 2528 2097 649 519 441

Chennai 1693 1569 1557 1109 1053 1043

Note:

All City figures as per NRS 2006

Zone 1 numbers estimates arrived at through TAM field work & Electoral/Municipal information on wards (Census 2001)

(Preliminary estimates & subject to change)

All City (Figures in 000's) Zone 1 (CAS Implementable Zone)

CAS Zone 1 TV & Cable TV Owning Estimates

• Mumbai ~16%

•Delhi ~ 23%

•Calcutta ~ 21%

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TAM is CAS/Digital compliant…

• TAM is conducting a periodic TV Establishment Study– Will help in factually ascertaining off-take of new delivery platforms– Will help in generation of profiles– Will indicate what ‘weight’ this distribution platform should carry

• TAM has a technology-hybrid (analog + digital), device neutral & self-reliant metering solution– TAM, anticipating the next era of broadcast has already deployed

state-of-the-art TVM5 meters in all 6 metros– TVM5 can measure analog as well as digitally-transmitted channels– This metering solution will work independent of

broadcast/distribution companies – critical for 100% coverage of viewing & security

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How do the TVM5 Digital meters work?• Picks data packets encoded within digital signals• Non intrusive on TV set• Compatible with

– DTH– CAS– IPTV– Gaming device

• Any kind of TV– Plasma TV– LCD TV– HDTV– Normal TV set

• (Col & B/W)

Set Top Box

TVM 5 Meter

Satellite

AV N 1

AV N 2

Audio Left

AV Out

TV1 TV2 REC 1 REC 2 AV1 AV2

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The TV Establishment Surveys

• TAM will continue to ride on the NRS for the Universe profiles, at a pan-India level

• TAM conducted a DTH penetration study in Feb/Mar 2006 which…– Established our ability to conduct a pan-India survey to estimate

DTH penetration robustly– Revealed the profile of DTH subscribers, indicating a need to

explore setting up of an independent DTH panel

• TAM has initiated a STB (CAS & DTH) penetration survey (last week), in the CAS-mandated areas of the 3 metros– Results will be available to TAM by Jan-end– Will be shared with the industry immediately– Planned to be under-taken every month in the first quarter, middle

month of each quarter there-after

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How is TAM ensuring representation of CAS/DTH homes?

• Rate of adoption of CAS in the universe will be matched by the Rate of adoption of CAS within the panel – a self balance

• CAS penetration study by TAM ready in January end– a) CAS Penetration levels – STB already installed– b) Profile of CAS adopters eg. SEC– c) Intention to get an STB installed– d) Channels received

• Panel will further get aligned using this study to capture data among CAS/DTH• Present panel has already homes with CAS/DTH connections

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Accounting for CAS in the TAM panel…

• Will be driven by the penetration of this platform in a reporting stratum…– IF, less than or equal to 5%

• No purposive sampling or reporting. Panel will easily comprise this proportion, reporting will not be split for CAS (under C&S Homes)

– IF, between 6 – 15%• Panel will be aligned to have a proportionate number of homes• Reporting will not be split for individual analysis

– IF, greater than or equal to 16%• Panel will be boosted for the proportions to be available for separate

analysis

• These were the norms that were set by the JIB RDSC, that TAM followed religiously with the advent of C&S (Deja-vu!)

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What about DTH…?

• DTH penetration will also be estimated by the CAS-penetration survey (currently, in-field)– Limited to the CAS-mandated areas in the 3-metros

• TAM is initiating a pan-India DTH penetration study– Fieldwork Period : Feb/Mar 2007– Reporting : End-Apr 2007– Set the ball-in-motion for an independent panel (if the profiles

appear similar to those from the prior establishment survey)

• The establishment survey will be undertaken at a pan-India level, every mid-month of a quarter

• Reporting norm for DTH will be identical to the one proposed earlier (at respective penetration thresholds), within the existing market strata

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What happens to Measurement in Multi TV homes?

• In all homes with Multi TV sets

– Both/all TV sets are metered

– Meters are attached to TV sets with all combinations• One TV set with C&S connection, the other with Terrestrial TV• Both TV sets with C&S connection• One TV set with CAS, the other with FTA cable connection• One TV set with CAS connection, the other TV set with

Terrestrial TV

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For any further information/clarification….Helpline – (022) 6653 1266

ORCall your TAM Client Solutions Contact