Taklimat Laporan Tahunan 2015 dan Laporan Kestabilan ... Laporan Tahunan 2015 dan Laporan Kestabilan

Taklimat Laporan Tahunan 2015 dan Laporan Kestabilan Kewangan dan Sistem Pembayaran 2015

Gabenor Bank Negara Malaysia 23 Mac 2016

Embargo

Not for publication or broadcast before 1800 hours on Wednesday, 23 March 2016

In 2015, the Malaysian economy is still on a stable growth path despite a challenging environment

Domestic Demand: 2014

Source: IMF, Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

6.0 5.0

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015p

Malaysian economy grew by 5.0% in 2015

Annual change (%)

Within the region, Malaysia was among the faster-growing economies

0.7

2.0

2.6

2.8

4.8

5.0

5.8

6.9

7.3

0 2 4 6 8

Chinese Taipei

Singapore

Korea

Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

PR China

India

Annual change (%)

Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth

Global growth: 3.3%

p preliminary

2

3.6 3.6 3.1

1.9 1.8 1.1

0.8 0.6 0.6

0.2

-0.5 -0.1 -1.0

1.1

-0.3 -0.8

-0.6

0.6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2013 2014 2015p

Change in Stocks Net Exports Public Investment Public Consumption Private Investment Private Consumption GDP Growth

Private consumption:

- Weighed down by weaker sentiments and households adjusting to rising cost of living

- But supported by continued income growth and stable labour market conditions

Private investment:

- Driven by the manufacturing and services sectors

Net exports:

- Weighed down growth as domestic demand-driven imports grew stronger than exports

Private domestic demand continued to anchor growth

3

Contribution to growth (ppt.)

Real GDP Growth

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia p preliminary

3

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016f

Advanced economies Asia Other EMEs Global GDP

GDP Growth By Region

L

Modest growth momentum in the advanced economies, reflecting:

- Moderate growth in the US

- Slow improvement in the euro area

In Asia, growth to be underpinned by private domestic demand given:

- Favourable labour market conditions

- Stimulus measures in a number of economies

- Supportive monetary conditions

Global growth to improve at a modest pace in 2016

Annual change (%)

Source: IMF and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

4

L

5

Moderate expansion in global trade

Structural and cyclical factors contribute to the decline in trade intensity

Structural factors:

Waning impact of previous drivers of trade growth

Slower expansion of global value chains

Weaker investment by corporates

Cyclical factors:

Modest economic recovery in a number of major advanced economies

Greater economic and financial uncertainty

0

1

2

3

4

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016f

1990 2000

average : 2.1 times 2002 -

2007 average: 1.6 times

2011 - 2016

average: 1.0 times

Lower global trade intensity post-GFC

*The ratio increased significantly in 2009, due to weak world growth

2001: Dot-com bubble

2008 / 2009: GFC

World Trade-to-GDP Ratio* Ratio (No. of times)

Source: IMF and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

5

Global inflationary pressures to remain subdued amid lower commodity prices

6

Low commodity prices to contain inflationary pressures across economies

Global commodity prices are expected to remain low in 2016 amid excess supply

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

G3***

Asia**

* Price index simple average of three spot prices - Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh ** Asia refers to Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, PR China, Singapore and Thailand *** G3 refers to the US, euro area and Japan

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016f

Index (2005=100)

Selected Commodity Prices Headline Inflation Rates Annual change (%)

Metal

Crude Oil*

Food

Source: Haver, IMF and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

6

Divergent but still very accommodative monetary policies in the major economies

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16

whereas ECB and BOJ continue with monetary accommodation through asset purchases and

negative interest rates Central Bank Balance Sheet Size

% of GDP

ECB

Fed

BOJ

Source: National authorities, Haver and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16

Policy Rates of Selected Major Central Banks

The US Federal Reserve has begun a slow-paced interest rate normalisation

ECB

Fed

BOJ

Rate (%)

The Malaysian economy to expand at between 4.0 4.5% in 2016

Domestic demand will continue to be the

principal driver of growth, sustained primarily

by the private sector

External sector to provide support to growth

in 2016

All economic sectors, except for agriculture,

are expected to expand, with the services and

manufacturing sectors remaining as the key

drivers of overall growth.

L

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p 2016f

6.0

Annual change (%)

Real GDP Growth

5.0 4.5

4.0

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia p preliminary, f forecast

8

Domestic demand will continue to drive growth with support from external demand

Real GDP Annual change (%)

% share of GDP (2015)

2015p 2016f

Domestic demand (excluding stocks) 91.6 5.1 4.3

Private expenditure 69.2 6.1 5.2 Private consumption 52.4 6.0 5.1 Private investment 16.9 6.4 5.5

Public expenditure 22.4 2.1 1.6 Public consumption 13.5 4.3 2.0 Public investment 8.9 -1.0 1.1

Gross Fixed Capital Formation 25.8 3.7 4.0 Net exports of Goods & Services 8.6 -3.7 1.1

Exports of Goods & Services 73.0 0.7 3.2 Imports of Goods & Services 64.4 1.3 3.4

Real GDP 100.0 5.0 4.0 - 4.5

6.0

5.0

4.0 4.5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2014 2015p 2016f

Change in Stocks Net Exports Public Investment Public Consumption Private Investment Private Consumption GDP growth

Real GDP Growth Contribution to growth (ppt.)

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia p preliminary, f forecast

9

Private consumption to grow by 5.1% in 2016

6.0

5.1

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p 2016f

Consumer spending to be affected by an environment of higher prices and greater uncertainty

but remain supported by continued income and employment growth

Unemployment and Salary Growth

2.9 3.2 3.3-3.5

5.5 5.6 5.5-6.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p 2016f

Salary increment (Annual change, %)

Unemployment rate (Share of labour force, %)

Annual change (%)

Real Private Consumption Growth

Annual change (%)

Long-term average (1990-2014): 6.7%

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia and Malaysian Employers Federation (MEF) p preliminary, f forecast

10

52 72 75

148 153

108

20 14

4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015

Manufacturing Services Primary

11.0

6.4 5.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p 2016f

Long-term average (1990-2014): 8.5%

RM billion Approved Investment

by MIDA

However, growth remains supported by on-going and new investments, particularly in the manufacturing sector

Real Private Investment Growth

Private investment to trend below long-term average in 2016

219 240

187

Private investment to expand by 5.5%

Annual change (%)

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia Investment Development Authority (MIDA) and Bank Negara Malaysia p preliminary, f forecast

11

p preliminary, f forecast Note: G3 refers to the US, EU and Japan, NIEs refers to Hong Kong, Korea and Chinese Taipei

Malaysias expor