Storm Surge Modelling at the JRC

A.  Annunziato

Storm Surge Activities

•  The following modelling activities are carried out at JRC •  Tsunami wave height forecast •  Cyclones Storm Surge

•  The activities are performed in the frame of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) •  An activity performed in collaboration between

UN-OCHA, UNOSAT and the JRC to alert the Humanitarian Community of large disasters

GDACS Architecture & functions

USGS

EMSC

GIS analyses

Geo Layers

Tsunami travel time Tsunami propagation Cyclones analysis

JRC Online Calculation System

Analysis & Alerting

EMAIL SMS FAX Geofon

IM

PDC JTC

http://www.gdacs.org

Tropical Cyclones in GDACS

Winds

Rainfall

STORM SURGE

GIOVANNA 9 -21 Feb 2012 Madagascar Uragano Categoria 4 (SSHS) Vmax = 232 km/h Pc = 932 mbar

Tropical Cyclones: Storm Surge (2/2)

Tropical Cyclon Monitoring Centers IRENE Hurricane

20-28 Aug 2011

TC BULLETINS

Track Maximum wind

Wind radii

Vmax

WIND RADII TREATMENT by a Monte Carlo Method

Wind Radii

HyFlux2

HOLLAND’S MODEL

ASGARD

INUNDATION MAPS

WIND INPACT ASSESMENT

PRESSURE and WIND

FIELDS

GDACS

Tropical Cyclones

•  Online cyclones track analysis every 6 h in order to identify when the conditions for wind intensity and precipitation may lead to dangerous situations

•  JRC Partners •  Pacific Disasters Center (track collection and formatting) •  NOAA (Tropical Rainfall Potential)

•  JRC contribution •  Track Analysis •  Storm surge prediction •  Users Alerting

Global Flood Detection System

From bulletins to pressure/winds

Vmax

WIND RADII TREATMENT by a Monte Carlo Method

Wind Radii

Bulletins

Holland Model parameters: Central Pressure, Max Radius, k (B=f(Vmax,Pn,Pc)

Input: Vmax, Wind radii Output: Pc, Rmax, B, k

Current Technique: Bulletins (G. Franchello, P. Probst, 2010) •  Based on the reconstruction of the pressure and wind field

from the textual bulletins to follow Holland Model WTPN32 PGTW 100900!MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//!SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//!RMKS/!1. TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 007    !   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W!   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC!   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE!   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY!    ---!   WARNING POSITION:!   100600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 126.5E!     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS!     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM!     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE!   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:!   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT!   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY!   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT!                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT!                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT!                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT!   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT!                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT!                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT!                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT!   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 126.5E!    ---!   FORECASTS:!   12 HRS, VALID AT:!   101800Z --- 15.6N 124.9E!   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT!   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY!   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT!                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT!   !

25 NM

50 knots

LOCATION

QUADRANT OF 50,34 KNOTS AND THEIR DISTANCE

34 knots

50 NM

Automatic procedure

Every 6h in the Atlantic or 12h in the Pacific we download the bulletin parameters and initialize HYFLUX2 code

Dp/Dx, Dp/Dy, Ux, Uy

HAIYAN animation

GDACS pages for HAIYAN

Panay  Island  1.8  m  

Busuanga,  Culion  And  Coron  Islands  1.5  m   Tacloban  

2.8  m  

HAIYAN  Typhoon  Storm  Surge  SituaDon    published  4/11/2013    (-‐4  days  before  strucking)    IdenDficaDon    of  mostly  affected  areas  

Estimated storm surge

News coverage with JRC data

A new approach based on ECMWF

•  As of 2013, the European Center for Medium Weather Forecast is providing estimations with a much finer grid (50 km -> 16 km) •  Therefore it is possible to use their pressure and velocity

fields to impose to the hydraulic calculations •  Daily Forecasts related to 00:00 and 12:00 available few

hours after the related time (about 6h) for 72h forecast period

•  The maps have to be interpolated and used as boundary conditions to the HYFLUX code

•  Preliminary tests on the basis of an informal agreement with ECMWF for the download of daily forecast in a “non-operational” mode

•  Advantage is that it is possible to analyse also extra tropical cycones (e.g. St. Jude event 2 weeks ago)

Pressure and max wind available

Time & Space raster interpolation

Pilot calculations with ECMWF

Cyclone Year Results SANDY 2010 Good WIPHA 2013 Good PHAILIN 2013 Too low HAIYAN 2013 Too low

Sandy Cyclone October 2012

Bulletins Method ECMWF forcing method

•  Very promising results in the first comparisons

Landfall area – Atlantic City

Bulletins Method ECMWF forcing method

Sandy October 2012

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10/22/2012  0:00  

10/23/2012  0:00  

10/24/2012  0:00  

10/25/2012  0:00  

10/26/2012  0:00  

10/27/2012  0:00  

10/28/2012  0:00  

10/29/2012  0:00  

10/30/2012  0:00  

10/31/2012  0:00  

11/1/2012  0:00  

Pc  (hPa)   BT  NOAA   ECMWF  

PHAILIN October 2013

Phailin 2013

•  The maximum velocity is strongly underpredicted in ECMWF

•  The minimum pressure is not correctly modelled in ECMWF and thus the maximum impact is underpredicted

WIPHA – October 2013

•  Very nice results with 2 cyclones at the same time •  several tide gauges to compare in Japan •  The behavior is strongly dependent on the history of the

cyclone

The first affected location in Japan

The most off-center location

The point of max impact

HAIYNAN Cyclone

•  One of the most severe cyclones •  Philippines: •  Too few measurements in the impact area

•  Wind Radii model •  Unable to show the extent of the cyclone •  Correct estimation of maximum impact in Philippines in the larger

damage area •  ECMWF Forcing model

•  Correct extent but maximum wind speed too low and minimum pressure too high

•  Vietnam •  Wind Radii model

•  Unable to show the extent of the cyclone •  Impact extent not yet available

•  ECMWF Forcing model •  Correct extent and good prediction of sea level measurements •  Impact extent not yet available

Wind Radii vs ECMWF forcing

Wider impact But less intense

Estimation of cyclone extent

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Max Height over line between 130.45/5.65 and 137.15/11.25

ECMWF

Wind Radii

MEAS PALAU

MEAS YAP

Comparison of forcing conditions

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Wind Radii

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ECMWF

Wind Speed (m/s)

Minimum Pressure (Pa)

Other topics on Cyclones

eSurge: use of altimetry for the establishment of sea level height Off shore altimetric data could be extremely useful to •  Understand well before landfall which model is

better reproducing the current event •  To suffice areas where no tidal gauge are

available (i.e. China)

All tracks, w/o considering distance or time (Jason or Cryosat)

Altimetry Tracks Analysis

•  However not all the tracks are useful for modelling comparison

•  We need to filter the tracks that fits in space and time with the Hurricane Track •  DT= 6 h •  Min Distance=200 km

t1

t0

Satellite track

Hurricane eye track

t0 t1 t0-DT

T1+DT

Min distance

Track is selected

Jason2: Filtering on space (DeltaX=200 km) and time (deltaT=6h), only 3 Cryosat tracks are useful

8 Nov 4:30 7 Nov 16:11 7 Nov 3:41

NORTH SOUTH

7 Nov 2013 16:11

18:00

12:00 7 Nov 2013 16:11

18:00

12:00

ECWMF Forcing model

Wind Radii model

Sea level behaviour at the eye position along the track

Wind radii

swh x 0.05

Max Height over track

Height at time of track

ECMWF Forcing

swh x 0.05

Max Height over track

Height at time of track

Conclusions

•  JRC is providing online storm surge calculations for every Tropical Cyclone occurring worldwide

•  During HAIYAN crisis JRC estimation proved to be instrumental in order to identify the most affected areas and task satellite images production

•  Our calculations represent an important support for many groups that trust in our estimations but the quality needs to be continuously verified with sea level measurements

•  New developments, using ECMWF medium forecast, seem promising for medium and low cyclones (SANDY, WIPHA, FRANCISCO) but some problems were identified for large velocity events (PHAILIN, HAIYAN)

•  The use of altimetric data from JASON/CRYOSAT could be quite useful to compare the quality of the model predictions but still work is necessary to have an operational tool

Thanks !