Sang-Hyop Lee, Ph.D. Gerard Russo, Ph.D. Lawrence Nitz, Ph.D. Abdul Jabbar, Ph.D. Candidate

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The Effect of Mandatory Employer-Sponsored Insurance (ESI) on Health Insurance Coverage and Employment in Hawai ` i: Evidence from the Current Population Survey (CPS) 1994-2003. Sang-Hyop Lee, Ph.D. Gerard Russo, Ph.D. Lawrence Nitz, Ph.D. Abdul Jabbar, Ph.D. Candidate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • The Effect of MandatoryEmployer-Sponsored Insurance (ESI)on Health Insurance Coverage and Employment in Hawai`i:Evidence from the Current Population Survey (CPS) 1994-2003Sang-Hyop Lee, Ph.D.Gerard Russo, Ph.D.Lawrence Nitz, Ph.D.Abdul Jabbar, Ph.D. CandidateUniversity of Hawai`i at Mnoa

    Hawaii HRSA SPGTechnical Workshop VI17 September 2004

  • Research Questions: PHCA

    What is the impact of PHCA on hours worked?

    What is the impact of PHCA on insurance coverage?

  • Data and MethodCurrent Population Survey (CPS) March Demographic Supplement 1994-2003Analyze the performance of Hawaii system after implementation of the PHCA relative to the other states and USUS, Hawaii, Nevada, Michigan, California, and FloridaCounter-factual analysis

  • Percent Distribution of Employees by Hours Worked: CPS 1994-2003

    Chart4

    0.00320.00410.0010.00560.00350.0022

    0.01170.01230.00620.01660.01110.0072

    0.01520.01440.00560.01650.01610.0103

    0.02280.00930.00450.01070.00990.0064

    0.04550.03110.01720.0350.03430.028

    0.02850.02750.01640.03060.02920.0237

    0.03090.03210.02520.0340.03710.0303

    0.03630.0480.03630.04120.04010.0453

    0.02110.03330.02030.0250.02280.031

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    Hours worked

    Percent distribution

    Diswrkh

    Table: Distribution of working hours CPS 1988-93

    HIUSNVMICAFL

    1-50.0040.00470.00170.00710.00270.0043

    6 - 100.0150.01510.00590.01860.01270.0076

    11-150.01050.01710.00880.02980.01790.0109

    16-190.00820.01160.00270.01860.01120.0064

    200.03370.03480.020.03820.03970.0327

    21-250.02710.0290.02740.03040.02830.0299

    26-300.03480.03340.03340.03130.03780.0375

    31-350.03530.05270.04290.04660.04090.0513

    35-390.01240.03530.02360.02530.02170.037

    40-990.8190.76630.83350.7540.78720.7824

    Total111111

    Table: Distribution of working hours CPS 1994-03

    HIUSNVMICAFL

    1-50.00320.00410.0010.00560.00350.0022

    6 - 100.01170.01230.00620.01660.01110.0072

    11-150.01520.01440.00560.01650.01610.0103

    16-190.02280.00930.00450.01070.00990.0064

    200.04550.03110.01720.0350.03430.028

    21-250.02850.02750.01640.03060.02920.0237

    26-300.03090.03210.02520.0340.03710.0303

    31-350.03630.0480.03630.04120.04010.0453

    35-390.02110.03330.02030.0250.02280.031

    40-990.78480.7880.86730.78490.79590.8155

    Total111111

    Diswrkh

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    Hours worked

    Percent distribution

  • Estimating the effect of PHCAMethodology: multinomial logit modelThree categories: uninsured, employment based insurance, or other insurancePredictor variables: age, sex, income, working hours, ethnicity, industry of employment, and collective bargaining.Predict the effect of hours worked on probability of coverageImpact of hours worked holding other characteristics constant.

  • The effect of PHCA on the percent uninsured: CPS 1994-2003

    Chart1

    0.20421530.20108190.25396080.13436620.24731780.2578533

    0.19627750.20236290.25089410.13977520.24965370.2544347

    0.19058120.21304910.2589380.15141280.26153640.2629472

    0.18271640.21001850.25007410.15217530.25758490.2570623

    0.17765760.21806460.2547830.16042460.2646460.2638303

    0.15956590.21125310.24476420.15817970.25659670.253769

    0.147030.21946310.24286980.168840.26364470.2582429

    0.11797920.18665580.2015160.14788940.22537910.2182967

    0.09337580.14852210.16066750.1218490.18501210.1734904

    0.08685010.1439530.16268890.11520410.18136050.1758168

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    Hours worked

    Percent uninsured

    emph

    Table. Multinomial Logit Results and Predicted Values of Empbased Insurance Regression(Hawaii, Base=Uninsured)

    Robust

    statusRRRStd. Err.zP>z[95% Conf.Interval]

    Private/Othersage0.99279440.0441974-0.160.8710.90984081.083311

    agesq0.99995780.0005681-0.070.9410.99884491.001072

    male0.52305020.080947-4.1900.38619950.7083942

    fpl0.97185380.074232-0.370.7090.83672851.128801

    nonwhite0.86311090.1654319-0.770.4420.59281251.256654

    hrslyr0.97101540.0082955-3.440.0010.95489180.9874113

    union0.75617360.4902872-0.430.6660.21218772.694777

    Empbasedage1.074840.03404742.280.0231.0101381.143687

    agesq0.99928930.0003971-1.790.0740.99851131.000068

    male0.6185940.0621633-4.7800.50800430.7532585

    fpl1.3336520.06486975.9201.2123821.467052

    nonwhite1.1561390.159991.050.2940.88149191.516359

    hrslyr1.0419280.00696476.1401.0283671.055669

    union4.0142551.6478393.390.0011.7955168.974712

    Mean

    VariableObsWeightUninsuredPublic/otherEmpbased

    Sample All workers56744007746.550.09052820.06383810.8456337

    1

  • The effect of PHCA on the percent covered by employment-based insurance: CPS 1994-2003

    Chart2

    0.41947330.55662890.56495850.60794970.46867940.4774773

    0.47289110.57808990.58304770.62546490.49711620.5055409

    0.52831820.58746650.59454410.63070750.5110740.5218482

    0.58595420.6171020.62118530.65737410.5419530.5568406

    0.6124590.6211480.62767370.65935010.55299450.5650293

    0.67584590.65407570.65931180.69145130.58785690.6026735

    0.72035050.66334940.67777560.69949880.60398040.6184575

    0.790180.72541580.73779660.75732450.67373750.6878246

    0.8404520.78478160.79171560.81061440.73566190.7542595

    0.87093250.80887910.80095720.83984850.7636910.7713351

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    Hours worked

    Percent insured

    emph

    Table. Multinomial Logit Results and Predicted Values of Empbased Insurance Regression(Hawaii, Base=Uninsured)

    Robust

    statusRRRStd. Err.zP>z[95% Conf.Interval]

    Private/Othersage0.99279440.0441974-0.160.8710.90984081.083311

    agesq0.99995780.0005681-0.070.9410.99884491.001072

    male0.52305020.080947-4.1900.38619950.7083942

    fpl0.97185380.074232-0.370.7090.83672851.128801

    nonwhite0.86311090.1654319-0.770.4420.59281251.256654

    hrslyr0.97101540.0082955-3.440.0010.95489180.9874113

    union0.75617360.4902872-0.430.6660.21218772.694777

    Empbasedage1.074840.03404742.280.0231.0101381.143687

    agesq0.99928930.0003971-1.790.0740.99851131.000068

    male0.6185940.0621633-4.7800.50800430.7532585

    fpl1.3336520.06486975.9201.2123821.467052

    nonwhite1.1561390.159991.050.2940.88149191.516359

    hrslyr1.0419280.00696476.1401.0283671.055669

    union4.0142551.6478393.390.0011.7955168.974712

    Mean

    VariableObsWeightUninsuredPublic/otherEmpbased

    Sample All workers56744007746.550.09052820.06383810.8456337

    1

  • Predicted Probability of ESI by Hours Worked: Hawaii & US

    Chart1

    0.44097870.5363137

    0.43405380.5300827

    0.45021120.5440444

    0.47344860.5481658

    0.46563270.5507664

    0.46682170.5416125

    0.48899340.5502189

    0.51943920.5769341

    0.49935410.5637166

    0.52986650.5809187

    0.52918120.5917709

    0.54917740.5771377

    0.55092340.5802586

    0.56086830.5686244

    0.57587620.5873014

    0.61975560.6140198

    0.60810080.6099641

    0.62483850.6136583

    0.62778150.638728

    0.63852810.6177766

    0.67686110.6418269

    0.66902980.6306376

    0.69537210.6578235

    0.73868160.7022426

    0.67991260.6210751

    0.70618050.639159

    0.70301830.6347433

    0.73330610.6655863

    0.7224280.6520316

    0.73088290.6513915

    0.74955820.6497977

    0.78936850.7166426

    0.78095780.7093867

    0.77378720.6756808

    0.80186250.7234895

    0.83094910.7623008

    0.84627950.7783182

    0.87065110.8186477

    0.85246230.7695175

    0.86380640.7924894

    0.86913480.7908946

    0.88704670.8196814

    0.89220340.8236963

    0.89491610.8270299

    0.90623630.8450362

    0.90419660.8321087

    0.91077870.8424656

    0.90251160.8235715

    0.89268190.7910593

    0.92550110.8669043

    0.89553180.7957677

    0.91863070.8467504

    0.92562620.8499578

    0.87929310.7378278

    0.93661860.8759399

    0.92846020.8541511

    0.90916660.803348

    0.9213820.8344654

    0.90969430.7835901

    0.94189930.8735298

    0.9072350.7449039

    0.94745050.8672323

    0.91791880.7814459

    0.94592640.8530297

    0.95442220.8841237

    0.91055910.7436701

    0.96180370.8898141

    0.94268780.8475077

    0.95355040.8370503

    0.95180220.865781

    0.91496460.7504496

    0.94454810.8114867

    0.95599540.8288512

    0.96187780.8486328

    0.9534240.8525186

    0.96686890.868864

    0.91953940.6967876

    0.93822760.8067296

    0.95011080.7620928

    0.96458130.8845435

    0.98919660.9528249

    0.98916160.9108543

    0.96955310.800956

    0.94805010.8426446

    0.97243470.886404

    0.95923310.9162844

    0.9784660.8599808

    0.95112330.7880755

    0.99065730.9449213

    0.97658270.8714465

    hours worked

    Hawaii

    US

    Predicted Probability of Employment-Based Health Insurance by Hours Worked (single hours), 1994-2003 CPS.

    Hawaii

    Table. Predicted single hours from Multinomial Logit model for Empbased Insurance Regression(Hawaii, Base=Uninsured)

    (industry and year dummies are included as control variabel but not reported)

    Mean

    hoursObsWeightUninsuredPublic/otherEmpbased

    ave56744007746.550.09052820.06383810.8456337

    194147587.440.19231240.36670890.4409787

    23315400