Sang-Hyop Lee, Ph.D. Gerard Russo, Ph.D. Lawrence Nitz, Ph.D. Abdul Jabbar, Ph.D. Candidate

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The Effect of Mandatory Employer-Sponsored Insurance (ESI) on Health Insurance Coverage and Employment in Hawai ` i: Evidence from the Current Population Survey (CPS) 1994-2003. Sang-Hyop Lee, Ph.D. Gerard Russo, Ph.D. Lawrence Nitz, Ph.D. Abdul Jabbar, Ph.D. Candidate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • The Effect of MandatoryEmployer-Sponsored Insurance (ESI)on Health Insurance Coverage and Employment in Hawai`i:Evidence from the Current Population Survey (CPS) 1994-2003Sang-Hyop Lee, Ph.D.Gerard Russo, Ph.D.Lawrence Nitz, Ph.D.Abdul Jabbar, Ph.D. CandidateUniversity of Hawai`i at Mnoa

    Hawaii HRSA SPGTechnical Workshop VI17 September 2004

  • Research Questions: PHCA

    What is the impact of PHCA on hours worked?

    What is the impact of PHCA on insurance coverage?

  • Data and MethodCurrent Population Survey (CPS) March Demographic Supplement 1994-2003Analyze the performance of Hawaii system after implementation of the PHCA relative to the other states and USUS, Hawaii, Nevada, Michigan, California, and FloridaCounter-factual analysis

  • Percent Distribution of Employees by Hours Worked: CPS 1994-2003

    Chart4

    0.00320.00410.0010.00560.00350.0022

    0.01170.01230.00620.01660.01110.0072

    0.01520.01440.00560.01650.01610.0103

    0.02280.00930.00450.01070.00990.0064

    0.04550.03110.01720.0350.03430.028

    0.02850.02750.01640.03060.02920.0237

    0.03090.03210.02520.0340.03710.0303

    0.03630.0480.03630.04120.04010.0453

    0.02110.03330.02030.0250.02280.031

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    Hours worked

    Percent distribution

    Diswrkh

    Table: Distribution of working hours CPS 1988-93

    HIUSNVMICAFL

    1-50.0040.00470.00170.00710.00270.0043

    6 - 100.0150.01510.00590.01860.01270.0076

    11-150.01050.01710.00880.02980.01790.0109

    16-190.00820.01160.00270.01860.01120.0064

    200.03370.03480.020.03820.03970.0327

    21-250.02710.0290.02740.03040.02830.0299

    26-300.03480.03340.03340.03130.03780.0375

    31-350.03530.05270.04290.04660.04090.0513

    35-390.01240.03530.02360.02530.02170.037

    40-990.8190.76630.83350.7540.78720.7824

    Total111111

    Table: Distribution of working hours CPS 1994-03

    HIUSNVMICAFL

    1-50.00320.00410.0010.00560.00350.0022

    6 - 100.01170.01230.00620.01660.01110.0072

    11-150.01520.01440.00560.01650.01610.0103

    16-190.02280.00930.00450.01070.00990.0064

    200.04550.03110.01720.0350.03430.028

    21-250.02850.02750.01640.03060.02920.0237

    26-300.03090.03210.02520.0340.03710.0303

    31-350.03630.0480.03630.04120.04010.0453

    35-390.02110.03330.02030.0250.02280.031

    40-990.78480.7880.86730.78490.79590.8155

    Total111111

    Diswrkh

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    Hours worked

    Percent distribution

  • Estimating the effect of PHCAMethodology: multinomial logit modelThree categories: uninsured, employment based insurance, or other insurancePredictor variables: age, sex, income, working hours, ethnicity, industry of employment, and collective bargaining.Predict the effect of hours worked on probability of coverageImpact of hours worked holding other characteristics constant.

  • The effect of PHCA on the percent uninsured: CPS 1994-2003

    Chart1

    0.20421530.20108190.25396080.13436620.24731780.2578533

    0.19627750.20236290.25089410.13977520.24965370.2544347

    0.19058120.21304910.2589380.15141280.26153640.2629472

    0.18271640.21001850.25007410.15217530.25758490.2570623

    0.17765760.21806460.2547830.16042460.2646460.2638303

    0.15956590.21125310.24476420.15817970.25659670.253769

    0.147030.21946310.24286980.168840.26364470.2582429

    0.11797920.18665580.2015160.14788940.22537910.2182967

    0.09337580.14852210.16066750.1218490.18501210.1734904

    0.08685010.1439530.16268890.11520410.18136050.1758168

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    Hours worked

    Percent uninsured

    emph

    Table. Multinomial Logit Results and Predicted Values of Empbased Insurance Regression(Hawaii, Base=Uninsured)

    Robust

    statusRRRStd. Err.zP>z[95% Conf.Interval]

    Private/Othersage0.99279440.0441974-0.160.8710.90984081.083311

    agesq0.99995780.0005681-0.070.9410.99884491.001072

    male0.52305020.080947-4.1900.38619950.7083942

    fpl0.97185380.074232-0.370.7090.83672851.128801

    nonwhite0.86311090.1654319-0.770.4420.59281251.256654

    hrslyr0.97101540.0082955-3.440.0010.95489180.9874113

    union0.75617360.4902872-0.430.6660.21218772.694777

    Empbasedage1.074840.03404742.280.0231.0101381.143687

    agesq0.99928930.0003971-1.790.0740.99851131.000068

    male0.6185940.0621633-4.7800.50800430.7532585

    fpl1.3336520.06486975.9201.2123821.467052

    nonwhite1.1561390.159991.050.2940.88149191.516359

    hrslyr1.0419280.00696476.1401.0283671.055669

    union4.0142551.6478393.390.0011.7955168.974712

    Mean

    VariableObsWeightUninsuredPublic/otherEmpbased

    Sample All workers56744007746.550.09052820.06383810.8456337

    1

  • The effect of PHCA on the percent covered by employment-based insurance: CPS 1994-2003

    Chart2

    0.41947330.55662890.56495850.60794970.46867940.4774773

    0.47289110.57808990.58304770.62546490.49711620.5055409

    0.52831820.58746650.59454410.63070750.5110740.5218482

    0.58595420.6171020.62118530.65737410.5419530.5568406

    0.6124590.6211480.62767370.65935010.55299450.5650293

    0.67584590.65407570.65931180.69145130.58785690.6026735

    0.72035050.66334940.67777560.69949880.60398040.6184575

    0.790180.72541580.73779660.75732450.67373750.6878246

    0.8404520.78478160.79171560.81061440.73566190.7542595

    0.87093250.80887910.80095720.83984850.7636910.7713351

    HI

    US

    NV

    MI

    CA

    FL

    Hours worked

    Percent insured

    emph

    Table. Multinomial Logit Results and Predicted Values of Empbased Insurance Regression(Hawaii, Base=Uninsured)

    Robust

    statusRRRStd. Err.zP>z[95% Conf.Interval]

    Private/Othersage0.99279440.0441974-0.160.8710.90984081.083311

    agesq0.99995780.0005681-0.070.9410.99884491.001072

    male0.52305020.080947-4.1900.38619950.7083942

    fpl0.97185380.074232-0.370.7090.83672851.128801

    nonwhite0.86311090.1654319-0.770.4420.59281251.256654

    hrslyr0.97101540.0082955-3.440.0010.95489180.9874113

    union0.75617360.4902872-0.430.6660.21218772.694777

    Empbasedage1.074840.03404742.280.0231.0101381.143687

    agesq0.99928930.0003971-1.790.0740.99851131.000068

    male0.6185940.0621633-4.7800.50800430.7532585

    fpl1.3336520.06486975.9201.2123821.467052

    nonwhite1.1561390.159991.050.2940.88149191.516359

    hrslyr1.0419280.00696476.1401.0283671.055669

    union4.0142551.6478393.390.0011.7955168.974712

    Mean

    VariableObsWeightUninsuredPublic/otherEmpbased

    Sample All workers56744007746.550.09052820.06383810.8456337

    1

  • Predicted Probability of ESI by Hours Worked: Hawaii & US

    Chart1

    0.44097870.5363137

    0.43405380.5300827

    0.45021120.5440444

    0.47344860.5481658

    0.46563270.5507664

    0.46682170.5416125

    0.48899340.5502189

    0.51943920.5769341

    0.49935410.5637166

    0.52986650.5809187

    0.52918120.5917709

    0.54917740.5771377

    0.55092340.5802586

    0.56086830.5686244

    0.57587620.5873014

    0.61975560.6140198

    0.60810080.6099641

    0.62483850.6136583

    0.62778150.638728

    0.63852810.6177766

    0.67686110.6418269

    0.66902980.6306376

    0.69537210.6578235

    0.73868160.7022426

    0.67991260.6210751

    0.70618050.639159

    0.70301830.6347433

    0.73330610.6655863

    0.7224280.6520316

    0.73088290.6513915

    0.74955820.6497977

    0.78936850.7166426

    0.78095780.7093867

    0.77378720.6756808

    0.80186250.7234895

    0.83094910.7623008

    0.84627950.7783182

    0.87065110.8186477

    0.85246230.7695175

    0.86380640.7924894

    0.86913480.7908946

    0.88704670.8196814

    0.89220340.8236963

    0.89491610.8270299

    0.90623630.8450362

    0.90419660.8321087

    0.91077870.8424656

    0.90251160.8235715

    0.89268190.7910593

    0.92550110.8669043

    0.89553180.7957677

    0.91863070.8467504

    0.92562620.8499578

    0.87929310.7378278

    0.93661860.8759399

    0.92846020.8541511

    0.90916660.803348

    0.9213820.8344654

    0.90969430.7835901

    0.94189930.8735298

    0.9072350.7449039

    0.94745050.8672323

    0.91791880.7814459

    0.94592640.8530297

    0.95442220.8841237

    0.91055910.7436701

    0.96180370.8898141

    0.94268780.8475077

    0.95355040.8370503

    0.95180220.865781

    0.91496460.7504496

    0.94454810.8114867

    0.95599540.8288512

    0.96187780.8486328

    0.9534240.8525186

    0.96686890.868864

    0.91953940.6967876

    0.93822760.8067296

    0.95011080.7620928

    0.96458130.8845435

    0.98919660.9528249

    0.98916160.9108543

    0.96955310.800956

    0.94805010.8426446

    0.97243470.886404

    0.95923310.9162844

    0.9784660.8599808

    0.95112330.7880755

    0.99065730.9449213

    0.97658270.8714465

    hours worked

    Hawaii

    US

    Predicted Probability of Employment-Based Health Insurance by Hours Worked (single hours), 1994-2003 CPS.

    Hawaii

    Table. Predicted single hours from Multinomial Logit model for Empbased Insurance Regression(Hawaii, Base=Uninsured)

    (industry and year dummies are included as control variabel but not reported)

    Mean

    hoursObsWeightUninsuredPublic/otherEmpbased

    ave56744007746.550.09052820.06383810.8456337

    194147587.440.19231240.36670890.4409787

    2331540008.490.2127490.35319720.4340538

    3411722680.730.20974840.34004040.4502112

    47241263446.710.21270230.31384910.4734486

    58281471023.530.2141090.32025820.4656327

    60:001639651.430.21194570.32123270.4668217

    70:00666300.630.20660190.30440480.4889934

    80:003486699.120.2017920.27876880.5194392

    90:00669323.0580.19889610.30174980.4993541

    1038656743285.90.19627630.27385720.5298665

    11183321022.7890.18711480.2837040.5291812

    1223374104207.690.19563140.25519120.5491774

    13348585490.9010.19389960.2551770.5509234

    145481010893.850.20230040.23683130.5608683

    1552399464438.750.19002830.23409550.5758762

    1631215529197.440.18580840.1944360.6197556

    17466821526.9290.17641420.2154850.6081008

    1814702640840.340.17914240.19601920.6248385

    19372606947.8690.16421870.20799980.6277815

    201770031974011.20.17914770.18232420.6385281

    216191097419.860.16591860.15722030.6768611

    228311460718.590.16641840.16455180.6690298

    2360610818000.15161560.15301220.6953721

    2449588752462.210.14040710.12091130.7386816

    25823114928853.10.16954960.15053780.6799126

    265991092595.930.1586780.13514160.7061805

    276961211152.080.15981990.13716180.7030183

    2815122757440.120.14654570.12014820.7333061

    29279492785.1820.14865650.12891550.722428

    301449625991831.30.15067070.11844630.7308829

    31216381173.820.14010640.11033530.7495582

    32672711642532.80.12469960.0859320.7893685

    338661504493.140.12008690.09895530.7809578

    346301095807.440.13678360.08942920.7737872

    351789731861820.70.11882090.07931660.8018625

    3649958557520.590.10596890.0630820.8309491

    3734165966911.90.09441170.05930870.8462795

    38902515864430.70.07919640.05015240.8706511

    398571563198.010.09241670.05512090.8524623

    403000015464918940.09219050.0440030.8638064

    41399747300.720.0877430.04312220.8691348

    4235526391376.720.0789490.03400440.8870467

    4319943600610.670.07374760.0340490.8922034

    4424124464429.590.07662430.02845960.8949161

    452566047162036.70.06673280.0270310.9062363

    4610501985811.170.07045870.02534470.9041966

    477691416812.150.06369090.02553040.9107787

    48624311876156.20.07353080.02395760.9025116

    49298559813.1110.07880590.02851220.8926819

    503548666371780.90.05426790.0202310.9255011

    51120211825.120.07998320.02448510.8955318

    5280115229560.05973440.02163490.9186307

    53302543200.0090.05741430.01695950.9256262

    54499882431.1810.0952160.02549090.8792931

    55824715532941.20.04641910.01696230.9366186

    5610782059149.910.05649650.01504330.9284602

    57143265131.8090.07356360.01726980.9091666

    58332642399.20.05952210.01909590.921382

    593561127.26980.06897040.02133530.9096943

    601463627462397.70.04349270.0146080.9418993

    611941228.150.07214310.02062190.907235

    6299198728.140.04314780.00940170.9474505

    6381151974.8490.0668060.01527530.9179188

    6476144145.080.04514680.00892670.9459264

    6517913308592.50.03531350.01026420.9544222

    66130209721.2690.07488750.01455340.9105591

    672137836.65010.0298240.00837230.9618037

    6866137096.340.04709480.01021740.9426878

    691125565.83980.03870670.00774290.9535504

    7025104626563.250.03583680.0123610.9518022

    71910581.40010.07666150.00837390.9149646

    725961090106.950.04659210.00885980.9445481

    731019867.12990.0339180.01008660.9559954

    741320991.73010.03170730.00641490.9618778

    75390681615.5710.03514890.01142710.953424

    761635196.50.02814030.00499080.9668689

    773656880.09030.0716850.00877560.9195394

    783267376.13970.05571550.00605690.9382276

    7959592.689880.041320.00856910.9501108

    8010771919309.20.02631510.00910360.9645813

    8144772.070010.01025450.00054890.9891966

    821424966.45960.00908480.00175350.9891616

    8333775.229890.0280230.0024240.9695531

    84389572364.1210.04868830.00326160.9480501

    8571124404.6910.02459340.00297190.9724347

    86921197.50030.03949940.00126740.9592331

    8745264.400020.01992620.00160780.978466

    8832749.130.04668540.00219130.9511233

    8923065.179990.00833660.00100610.9906573

    90152260228.0010.02090390.00251330.9765827

    US

    Table. Predicted single hours from Multinomial Logit model for Empbased Insurance Regression(US, Base=Uninsured)

    (industry and year dummies are included as control variabel but not reported)

    Mean

    hoursObsWeightUninsuredPublic/otherEmpbased

    ave5314019667302600.15578020.06516840.7790514

    194147587.440.20067240.26301390.5363137

    2331540008.490.20725470.26266260.5300827

    3411722680.730.20410620.25184930.5440444

    47241263446.710.21047580.24135840.5481658

    58281471023.530.21404090.23519270.5507664

    69371639651.430.21927060.23911690.5416125

    7391666300.630.21636290.23341820.5502189

    819573486699.120.20617030.21689550.5769341

    9384669323.0580.20739380.22888960.5637166

    1038656743285.90.20565620.21342510.5809187

    11183321022.7890.19755540.21067370.5917709

    1223374104207.690.21354420.20931810.5771377

    13348585490.9010.21907980.20066160.5802586

    145481010893.850.22819930.20317630.5686244

    1552399464438.750.21852290.19417570.5873014

    1631215529197.440.21247410.17350610.6140198

    17466821526.9290.21110470.17893120.6099641

    1814702640840.340.21423270.1721090.6136583

    19372606947.8690.19795710.16331490.638728

    201770031974011.20.22099030.1612330.6177766

    216191097419.860.21086790.14730520.6418269

    228311460718.590.21731590.15204650.6306376

    2360610818000.1995690.14260750.6578235

    2449588752462.210.18107590.11668150.7022426

    25823114928853.10.23515380.14377120.6210751

    265991092595.930.22490970.13593140.639159

    276961211152.080.22836160.13689520.6347433

    2815122757440.120.21109280.12332090.6655863

    29279492785.1820.21953430.1284340.6520316

    301449625991831.30.22902050.1195880.6513915

    31216381173.820.22860080.12160150.6497977

    32672711642532.80.18812450.09523290.7166426

    338661504493.140.18714060.10347270.7093867

    346301095807.440.21803690.10628230.6756808

    351789731861820.70.18988710.08662340.7234895

    3649958557520.590.16488540.07281380.7623008

    3734165966911.90.15185580.0698260.7783182

    38902515864430.70.12337130.0579810.8186477

    398571563198.010.16274370.06773880.7695175

    403000015464918940.15390690.05360380.7924894

    41399747300.720.15349580.05560960.7908946

    4235526391376.720.13513460.04518390.8196814

    4319943600610.670.1316390.04466480.8236963

    4424124464429.590.13288470.04008530.8270299

    452566047162036.70.11906140.03590240.8450362

    4610501985811.170.1297020.03818930.8321087

    477691416812.150.12234130.03519310.8424656

    48624311876156.20.14035420.03607430.8235715

    49298559813.1110.16634290.04259770.7910593

    503548666371780.90.10591530.02718030.8669043

    51120211825.120.16331210.04092020.7957677

    5280115229560.12341030.02983930.8467504

    53302543200.0090.12161930.0284230.8499578

    54499882431.1810.21726820.0449040.7378278

    55824715532941.20.10111410.02294590.8759399

    5610782059149.910.12020880.02564010.8541511

    57143265131.8090.16487390.03177810.803348

    58332642399.20.13829850.02723610.8344654

    593561127.26980.17497570.04143420.7835901

    601463627462397.70.10581020.020660.8735298

    611941228.150.21588430.03921180.7449039

    6299198728.140.11157070.02119710.8672323

    6381151974.8490.186623...

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