RFID Forecasts, Trends by Territory and Lessons · · 2010-10-12Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2011-2021 1375 397 303 224 190 170 118 101 93 87 0 500 1,000

Global Research & Analysis on Printed Electronics, Photovoltaics, Energy Harvesting and RFIDCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx

RFID Forecasts, Trends by

Territory and Lessons

Raghu Das:

IDTechEx:

[email protected]

www.idtechex.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.idtechex.com/

Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx

Overview of our services

EventsRun over 50 events in past 10 years. IDTechEx organise the

World’s largest events for Printed Electronics, Energy Harvesting

and other topics. 10 events/year across Asia, USA and Europe.

PublicationsOver 38 titles published with 8 additional titles planned for 2010.

Web Portals: Printed Electronics World & Energy Harvesting Journal

World’s largest RFID case study knowledgebase.

World’s Largest Printed Electronics Suppliers database

Consultancy:Over 250 consultancy projects, most under NDA. A few

companies we can mention include: Hewlett Packard, Shell ICI,

Rexam, Whirlpool Europe, Guinness UDV, Thin Film Electronics.

PolyTechnos, Cazenove investment, Schiphol Airport.


Chip 9736 million – 20% in 2009

Chipless 171 million

CHIP TYPE IS 99% OF MARKET VALUE

Active/RTLS: All chip – 722 million tags

DIGITALLY-ENCODED LOW COST RFID TAGS ABOVE 0.1cm

RANGE

Active and passive tags

Worldwide sales cumulative numbers

Cumulative sales in millions of tags 1943 to start of 2010


Cumulative sales in millions of tags 1943 - start of 2010

Application Cumulative number of tags (millions)

Retail/ consumer goods 1490 – pallets/cases, apparel, items

Land and sea logistics/ postal 145

Airlines and airports 215 – baggage, conveyances

Healthcare and drugs 161 – AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Purdue, GSK etc

Animals & farming 485

Books, libraries, archiving 522 – Libraries, Selexyz

Manufacturing 356 – process control

Leisure 210 – Hasbro toys, events

Laundry 84

Financial, security, safety 2445 – ID, passports

Military inc pallet/ case 173

Passenger transport/ automotive 2715 – clickers, cards

Other 907

Total 9908 (incl. Chipless)

RFID chip sales cumulative

NXP 3920

EM Micro 2200

Texas Insts 1150

Impinj 1000

Sony 650

Other 876

Total 9736


Number m Value $mSource: IDTechEx RFID

Forecasts, Players &

Opportunities 2011-

2021

www.IDTechEx.com/for

ecasts

Sales growth: tags 2009 to 2010

2009 2010 2009 2010

Drugs and Other Healthcare 32 33 29 25

Retail apparel 200 300 24 36

Consumer goods 10 12 1 1

Postal 10 12 10 12

Books 90 100 20 14

Manufacturing parts, tools 90 140 35 39

Pallet/case 50 50 4 4

Smart cards/payment key fobs 440 450 1061 1139

Smart tickets 350 380 42 42

Air baggage 65 70 12 13

Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes 39 76 35 47

Animals 105 178 103 173

Passport page/secure documents 65 65 244 241

Other tag applications 433 441 413 340

Total (billion) 1.98 2.31 2.03 2.13

http://www.idtechex.com/forecasts



Total market size

• 2010 - $5.63 Billion

– Cards $2.36bn; Labels/tickets/fobs $3.06bn

– Passive $5.02bn; Active $0.61bn

Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2011-2021

www.IDTechEx.com/forecasts

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224 190 170118 101 93 87

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USA still has the largest number of RFID projects, China moves from 7th to 3rd in one year.



Largest potential for RFID is retail/ consumer

goods

Perceptive Stupid

19992004

2000 Depressed 2008

Wild enthusiasm

that tens of billions

of pallets/ cases

could have 10 cent

tags and trillions of

items a year in

supermarkets could

have one cent tags

using current

technology

Procter & Gamble

says it cannot get

a payback on

pallet/case tagging

unless tag is under

2.5 cents. Other

CPG suppliers say

one cent

Realisation that

silicon chip

technology will

never get there

Marks &

Spencer gets

payback with 15

cent tags

American

Apparel has

reusable tags

Many niche

applications at

10 cents to $1

MIT

concept of

very basic

low cost

tags on

everything

Attitude


Passive RFID – growth areas

• Item level RFID (UHF) – closed loop– Marks & Spencer apparel, American Apparel … report 5 to 25%

sales uplift!

• Asset Tracking (UHF) – closed loop

• National ID (HF) - government– Including passports

• Transit Tickets (HF) - government– transit ticketing etc.

• Animals (LF) - government


• Already huge in East Asia thanks to RFID

cards used for transport and payment – now

migrated to RFID enabled cellphones

• ISO 14443 A; ISO 14443 B; Sony “type C” –

NFC is backwardly compatible with all three

• In 2008 NTT DoCoMo sold 47 Million RFID

enabled cellphones, leveraging RFID

infrastructure for transport and 120,000+ POS

RFID readers in Tokyo stores.

• West is laggard but will catch up as RFID

infrastructure goes in for POS and transport,

e.g. London Transport has installed a $1.6

Billion RFID system. Nokia says soon most of

its phones will have NFC as standard

A ubiquitous RFID

reader network…

at HF

RFID Cellphones

Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd

Examples of ultra low cost sensor tags - GE

The RFID sensor is placed on the outside of the milk carton

and allows for non invasive detection - it can detect the

spoilage through the carton wall

Dropping price to 2 cents by getting rid of the chip

Kovio ink jet printed, nanosilicon RFID in the lead

Samples are now available

ISO14443

1000

transistors

*

HF first because

it is over half of

the RFID market

value


Three Generations of Active RFID

12

Generation 1 = Conventional active RFID

$450 Million in 2010

433MHz, 2.45GHz etc. ISO standards exist

E.g. car clicker $2bn so far, non-stop road toll $0.5 billion order recently,

military supplies $0.5 billion order recently

Generation 2 = Real Time Locating Systems

$160 Million in 2010

433MHz, 2.45GHz, UHF, WiFi, UWB, Ultrasound…

No orders above a few million dollars as yet. Acquisition frenzy and many

newcomers

Generation 3 = Mesh and Wireless Sensor Networks

Tags are readers. Form adhoc networks. Monitor condition.


Wireless Sensor Networks

Tag

TagTag

Tag

Tag

Tag Tag

TagTag

Tag

Tag

Tag

Tag

Tag

Tag

Tag Tag

Tag

Backhaul of information to and

from computer system

But most of these gas guzzlers need energy harvesting


Largest orders are placed by Government

• China National ID Card $6 billion HF

• ACS for New York/ New Jersey EZ Pass $500 million UHF Active

(In 2006, New Jersey Turnpike Authority spent $28 million to replace

1.1 million old E-Z pass toll tags before their batteries ran out).

• Savi Technology for US Army $285 million 433 MHz active

• E-passport infrastructure UK and USA $30-$65 million HF

• Applied Digital river readers for US Army/ Bvl Hydro $45 m LF

• Gaming Partners casino chips Macao Philippines $8 million HF

And Government is behind other big business by creating laws eg tag

dogs in NZ, cows in Australia, passports in 70 countries


RFID is $5.6 billion in 2010 but fragmented

Over 1000 suppliers: top ten have half the business

Largest include these (double counting in the sales)

Gemplus –RFID cards & passports $500 million+

NXP – chips $500 million

ACS – Non stop road tolling and transport card system

integrators $500 million

Assa Abloy – secure access, livestock $400 million

Savi – military & heavy logistics systems integration

$200 million

Smartrac - Passport inlays $150 million

Allflex – livestock tags $110 million


Pure play independent RFID companies

$50 + million

Allflex Australia

Savi US

Zebra US

ERG Australia

ASK France

$20-$50 million Over 100 people

AeroScout US/ Israel

Alien Technology US

SIRIT US

Impinj US

Ubisense UK

Under $20 million

About 500 companies

BUT

WATCH THE

TIDDLERS!


RFID spend by territory (excluding cards)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2011 2016 2021

US

$ B

illi

on

s

ROW

Europe

East Asia

North America


The rise of RFID in Asia

China will become the biggest market for RFID. Indicators of this are as follows:

•In the last two years most new RFID manufacture capacity has been installed in

China and Korea

•The Chinese Government is a strong advocate for RFID, and has the power to

mandate companies to use it.

•China has already executed the largest RFID order by value (over one billion

national identification cards for adults – six billion dollars including systems) and

has a policy of making its own requirements throughout the RFID value chain as

soon as possible.

•Most products will be source tagged, and because China is one of the largest

exporters the tags will be supplied there


Markets by Frequency for 2011

LF HF HF or NF UHF 433MHz UHF 2.45GHz Other Total

Number (Bn) 0.27 1.34 0 0.052 1.18 0.03 0.01 2.88

% 9.4% 46.5% 0.0% 1.8% 40.9% 1.0% 0.3% 100.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

LF HF HF or NF UHF 433MHz UHF 2.45GHz Other


RFID Company Value $M Sector Type Country

Affiliated Computer

Services

500 New York

road tolling

Active USA UHF active

Lockheed Martin 425 Military Active tags/ systems. US Army USA 433MHz active

ERG 48 Mass Transit Cards/ systems Italy, Philippines HF

Digital Angel 27 Fish 10 meter wide readers in rivers

to detect salmon. Bonneville

Power & US Army Corps of

Engineers

USA LF

Odin Technology 15 Military System integration USA UHF

UPM Raflatac 1 leading

to 15

Mass Transit Tickets Russia HF

Affiliated Computer

Services

14 Mass Transit Card system Marseilles France HF

Cubic

Transportation.

12 Mass transit Card system extension –

Washington

USA HF

Avery Dennison 10 Retail Passive tags

Marks & Spencer

UK UHF

Large orders – from all types of

industries


Impediments to RFID rollout

Irrational fear

Paranoid privacy advocates – including the European Community

Sloppy users

Retailers not always rational and their staff often technophobic

No decisions on standards/ mandates

Healthcare standards and mandates needed eg on drugs

Haggling delays NFC phones

Passive tag cost

Delay with printed passive tags

Active tag life

Battery life with active tags – but energy harvesting not yet ready for

wide use


Value of tags by sector

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US

$ m

illio

n

Other

Retail, Consumer Goods

Passenger Transport, Automotive

Military

Manufacturing

Land and Sea Logistics, Postal

Healthcare and Pharmaceutical

Financial, Security, Safety

Books, Libraries, Archiving

Animals and Farming

Airline and Airports


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Nu

mb

er

billio

n

Chipless/Printed RFID Chip

Chipless RFID for highest volume – when?

710 billion tags by 2019; $27.59 Billion market


RFID is a fast growing business

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

US

$ b

illi

on

Networking, Software, Services

Interrogators (incl.cellphones)

Tags - active/BAP

Tags - passive


For more read:

RFID Forecasts, Players &

Opportunities 2011-2021

Active RFID & Sensors 2010-2020

Wireless Sensor Networks 2010-2020


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Documents

RFID Forecasts, Trends by Territory and Lessons · · 2010-10-12Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2011-2021 1375 397 303 224 190 170 118 101 93 87 0 500 1,000