IDTechEx Research: Manned Electric Aircraft

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11

Electric Aircraft Reach a Tipping Point

with Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman, IDTechEx

This webinar shares some of the research carried out this year for the new IDTechEx Research report “Manned Electric Aircraft 2016-2031” and will

include:

www.IDTechEx.com/aircraft

Ø Why both hybrid and pure electric aircraft are needed and progress so far

Ø Why small manned electric aircraft will be a $24 billion business in 2031 - technology roadmap

Ø How large More Electric Aircraft (MEA) will be a much larger business

Ø How MEA progress to electric traction


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Type: Fixed wing mannedName: SunseekerDuoDesigner/ manufacturer: Solar FlightExternal energy harvesting: Flexible PVExtreme powertrain efficiency: YesExtreme lightweighting: YesExtreme aerodynamics/streamlining: YesNext generation energy storage: NoThe SunseekerDuo is one of the most advanced solar powered aircraft flying in the world. It is Solar Flightʼs third solar powered airplane. It has a wingspan of 22 meters;; an empty weight of 280 kg and 1510 solar cells with 23% efficiency. The airplane is able to cruise directly on solar power with two people on board. The structure must be incredibly light and aerodynamically efficient to perform well with only the power from integrated solar arrays. It uses a battery pack located in the fuselage to store energy harvested from the solar cells which line its wings and tail surfaces.The undercarriage is retractable tricycle gear, fully sprung, with a steerable nose wheel and ensures that the Duo will operate normally at any airport in the world . The folding wings give the airplane a hanger footprint no larger than a conventional light plane. If necessary, the SunseekerDuo can also be disassembled and packed into a trailer. First flown under power in December 2013, it has now logged several hundred hours in the air, and carried more than a few passengers. Irena Raymond became the second pilot of the DUO, and has made 10 solo flights in it.

Sunseeker Duo USA


Route to structural electronics/ electrics instead of components-in-a-boxIntegration of propulsion, aerodynamicsBetter control, much easier to flyMeeting ever more stringent emissions laws Relative lack of noise, heat and vibrationRoute to energy independence

Why should aircraft go electric?

Improved cost, reliability,life, space, function andsafetyUNRESTRICTED FLYING HOURS/ MILITARY STEALTH

Catalyst: Tesla, Toyota, Honda, BMW, Google, Facebook etc. enter electric aviation


BatteriesExtreme lightweighting including structural electronics, wireless systems, higher voltages, integration….Extreme aerodynamicsPowertrain efficiency – Goodbye mechanics, hydraulics, pneumatics: hello software, electrics and electronicsNew principles such as Distributed Electric Propulsion (DEP), superconducting powertrains, wireless systems, IOT…Energy Independent Vehicle (EIV) technology – multiple energy harvesting, regeneration

Key enabling technologies for future manned electric aircraft


1000

100

Wh/kg

10

2016 2026

Energy density Large rechargeable energy

storage Here come the new ones

“At 400 Wh/kg long haul pure electric flight starts to

become interesting” Elon Musk

Some of the reasons why Li-ion may eventually lose dominance are alternative

batteries with Higher energy densitySolid state meaning safer and capable of forming load bearing structures

and smart skinLower cost

Some of the reasons why supercapacitors and

electrostatic+ faradaic hybrid devices such as

pseudocapacitors and Li-ion capacitors have taken a tiny market share but may take

more are:Improving faster

Better calendar and cycle life, greater power density, safety such as full discharge for transport and after an accident, suitability for load bearing structures and smart skin because electrostatic devices do not swell and

shrink on cycling

Affordable 300 Wh/kg could give 500+ km range and sell millions more pure electric cars

Energy density 2016 - 2028

Energy harvesting for electric aircraftFor more see the IDTechEx reports on Energy Independent Vehicles (EIV), High Power Energy Harvesting etc.


Forecasts for hybrid and pure electric aircraft global sales 2016-2026. Top number K: middle unit price ex factory $M: bottom market value $ billion. Categories LOW PRICE. Typically under 5 seats, hang gliders, self launching sailplanes, microlights, one/two engine propeller aircraft. HIGH PRICE Typically over 5 seats business aircraft, helicopters including conventional ones with electric powertrain for controlled emergency landing, military, airliners <100 seats. Low price market value is mainly motorised hang gliders and self launching sailplanes in 2016 but will be single and double propeller/fan full-range multi-seat aircraft competing with Cessna and similar conventional small private and commercial aircraft in 2026 including planned air taxis. This increases average price for the category. The high priced aircraft are not yet on sale but they will also change in mix over the years increasing average price. There is a notable absence of the equivalent of electric supercars on sale in aerospace but this must change. . , and eventually create commuter planes within 20 years. There is a lot at stake in the race to innovate: the electric aircraft market is projected by Airbus to reach over $22 billion in the next fifteen years. In order for electric flight to really take off and become mainstream in both commercial and recreational markets, it needs better batteries. Other industries have replaced traditional lead-acid batteries with lithium-ion batteries, which now power most of our laptops, phones, and electric cars. But in order to be aviation compatible, the next generation of batteries needs to deliver much more power while being simultaneously smaller, safer, and lighter than lithium-ion ones. The IDTechEx forecast gives market value of $24 billion in 2031, roughly evenly split between low and high price.

Manned electric aircraft market forecasts 2016-2031

Number K 2016 2017 2018 2026Low price 20 110

High price - - 0.01 2

TOTAL 112 $5 bn


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IDTechEx Research: Manned Electric Aircraft