The global market for RFID 2010-2020 Markets... · Consulting –Publications –Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd The global market for RFID 2010-2020 Dr Peter Harrop [email protected]

Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd

The global market for RFID

2010-2020

Dr Peter Harrop [email protected]

www.IDTechEx.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.idtechex.com/



RFID is a fast growing business

$bn 2005 2010 2020

Tags 1.0 2.1 9.9

Other 0.9 3.5 12

Total 1.9 5.6 21.9


It is not all about paybacks

GOVERNMENT LAWS – fit it to your cattle in Australia,

Canada, Uruguay, Botswana, dogs in New Zealand,

sheep and goats in Europe or go to jail

GOVERNMENT MONEY – largest orders are military

and local government for non stop road tolling and air

baggage in USA/Korea and city cards and national ID

card in China. E-Passports in 70 countries

CRIME PREVENTION – hospitals, postal service

ERROR PREVENTION – healthcare

LIFE SAVING AND HEALTH - healthcare


Largest orders are placed by Government

China National ID Card $6 billion HF passive

ACS for New York/ New Jersey EZ Pass $500 million UHF Active (In 2006,

New Jersey Turnpike Authority spent $28 million to replace 1.1 million old E-Z

pass toll tags before their batteries ran out)

Savi Technology for US Army $500 million 433 MHz active

Unisys consortium for US Army $500 million 433MHz active/UHF passive

E-Passports UK – De La Rue $600 million

E-passport infrastructure UK and USA $30-$65 million HF passive

E-passport RFID inserts for USA $50 million HF passive

Applied Digital river readers US Army/ Bonneyville Hydro $45 m LF passive


RFID is $5.6 billion in 2010 but fragmented

Over 1000 suppliers: top ten have half the business

Largest include these (double counting in the sales)

Gemplus –RFID cards & passports $500 million+

NXP – chips $500 million

ACS – Non stop road tolling and transport card

system integrators $500 million

Assa Abloy – secure access, livestock$400 million

Savi – military & heavy logistics systems integration

$200 million

Smartrac - Passport inlays $150 million

Allflex – livestock tags $110 million


Passive and active RFID

Passive has no power supply in the tag - low cost, longest life tags

BIGGEST MARKET

Active has a power supply in the tag, usually a battery

First generation active is a tag that is read when near an interrogator – longer

range, can initiate a signal. BIG MARKET eg car keys, military, road toll

Second generation active is Real Time Locating Systems RTLS - many

interrogators locating a tag from a distance eg 150 US hospitals

Third Generation Active is Wireless Sensor Networks WSN - every tag

“node” can be a reader in a mesh network like the internet ie self organising,

self healing and it can sense something.


HF RFID is over 50% of market value

Security

and/or

Memory

size

7 cents Chip cost 3 dollars

Retail

pallet/case

label

Passport

label/ page

Item

drug label

Aircraft

part tag

Library

book label

Transit ticket

Transit card

Secure

access or credit

card

National ID

card

Specificatio

n typically IS

O 14443 or 15693

Dropping price to 2 cents by getting rid of the chip

Kovio ink jet printed, nanosilicon RFID in the lead

Samples are now available

ISO14443

1000

transistors

*


RFID markets – tout ça change

The world’s most popular annual analysis of RFID markets

IDTechEx “RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2010-2020”

finds

Largest expenditure by sector

2010

1. Financial, Security, Safety

2. Passenger Transport, Automotive

3. Animals and Farming

2020

1. Retail, Consumer Goods

2. Financial, Security, Safety

3. Land & Sea Logistics, Postal


World’s largest reality check on RFID The IDTechEx Knowledgebase of over 4100 projects in

112 countries (4150 organisations, 770 slide

shows/audio) shows:

Largest number of projects is

1.Financial, Security, Safety, nearly all HF

2.Retail and Consumer Goods, mainly UHF

However, Retail/CPG is under 5% of the money

spent on RFID so there is a long way to go


Number of case studies by project status is a glimpse

of the future from the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

One-

off e

vent

Ord

ered

Pla

nned

Pro

of of C

oncept

Roll-

out (Com

plete

)

Roll-

out (Ongoin

g)

Trial

(Com

plete

)

Trial

(Ongoin

g)

Trial

(Pla

nned)

Trial

s

Trial

s an

d roll-

outs

With

drawn

Nu

mb

er

of

ca

se

stu

die

s


Here comes China

From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase

1375

397303

224 190 170118 101 93 87

0

500

1,000

1,500

Unite

d Sta

tes

Unite

d Kin

gdom

Chin

a

Ger

man

y

Japan

France

Aust

ralia

Can

ada

Net

herla

ndsIta

ly

Nu

mb

er

of

ca

se

stu

die

s


Case studies by tag location


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Air

Bag

gage

Anim

als

Car

d (inc.

key

fob)

Clic

ker/i

mm

obilise

r

Conve

yance

Inte

rmodal

conta

iner

/ULD

Item

leve

l

Oth

er

Palle

t/cas

e

Passp

ort

People

Phone

Ticke

t

Vehic

le

Nu

mb

er

of

ca

se

stu

die

s


HF is always the most popular frequency

(but UHF people shout loudest)

Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2009-2019

www.IDTechEx.com/forecasts

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Chip

less

(2 H

z-10

0 GHz)

LF (125

-135

KHz)

HF (1

3.56

MHz)

315-

333

MHz

433

MHz

UHF (8

68-9

60 M

Hz)

Mic

rowav

e (2

.45

GHz)

Mic

rowav

e (5

.8 G

Hz)

Ultr

a W

ide

Ban

d (UW

B)

Multi

ple fr

equen

cies

Nu

mb

er

of

ca

se

stu

die

s

World’s

favourite RFID

standard is HF=

ISO14443

(+15693)

HF is over 50% of the value

of the RFID market - cards,

tickets, passports, logistics

etc

http://www.idtechex.com/forecasts


Case studies by active/passive


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Active Passive

Nu

mb

er

of

ca

se

stu

die

s


Case studies by read/write


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Read Only Read/Write

Nu

mb

er

of

case s

tud

ies


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Airlin

es a

nd Airport

s

Anim

als

and F

arm

ing

Books

, Lib

raries

, Arc

hivin

g

Finan

cial

, Sec

urity

, Saf

ety

Hea

lthca

re

Land a

nd Sea

Logis

tics,

Post

al

Laundry

Leisu

re, S

ports

Man

ufact

uring

Mili

tary

Oth

er

Pas

senger

Tra

nsport

, Auto

motiv

e

Ret

ail,

Consu

mer

Goods

Nu

mb

er

of

case s

tud

ies

Case studies by application



Case studies by tag shape


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Bad

ge

Butt

on

Car

d

Ear

tag /

Bolu

s ta

g

Ele

ctro

nic h

ousings

/ Pla

stic

mould

ings

Em

bedded

Gla

ss B

ead

Impla

nt

Inte

grate

d

Key

fob

Label

Pap

er ti

cket

Wrist

band/B

race

let

Nu

mb

er

of

ca

se

stu

die

s


Tag numbers will rocket if printed RFID

with no chip is available and adopted but

unnecessarily complicated standards

must be abandoned

Number

billion

2005 2010 2020

Tags 0.7 2.4 125 – mainly 2

cent chipless

tags


Passive tags remain dominant in numbers

Number

billion

2005 2010 2020

Active 0.05 0.06 0.8

Passive 0.66 2.3 124

Total 0.71 2.4 125

Passive tag systems migrate to HF and UHF

Active tag systems migrate to 2.45GHz and UWB and

are more profitable

For more read:

RFID Forecasts, Players and

Opportunities 2010-2020

"We found the report to be extremely helpful and well

done"Daniel Luch, CEO, Ertek

www.idtechex.com

Cambridge UK 28-29 September

SPEAKERS INCLUDE

BMW

Goodyear

Gerry Weber

Copenhagen Airports

Sony

NP Collection

Centre Pompidou

NYK Logistics

Cubic

NXP

Guide Dogs for the Blind

www.idtechex.com/rfidEurope

Conference

Exhibition

Masterclasses

Visits

http://www.idtechex.com/rfideurope10/

Global Research & Analysis on Printed Electronics, Photovoltaics, Energy Harvesting and RFIDCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx

www.IDTechEx.com

YOUR BUSINESSOUR INSIGHT

For reports and events see

www.idtechex.com

For custom consulting contact :

Americas - Raghu Das at [email protected]

Europe and Rest of World - Dr Peter Harrop

[email protected]

or call + 44 1223 813703




Documents

The global market for RFID 2010-2020 Markets... · Consulting –Publications –Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd The global market for RFID 2010-2020 Dr Peter Harrop [email protected]