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10/13/2016
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Winter Weather Training
Sarah Karel
Hennepin County Emergency Management
Community Engagement and Meteorology Coordinator
Scenario
Watch – Warning – Advisory
• WATCH: Weather having a significant impact on society is possible but details are uncertain.
– For winter weather, issued 24-72 hours out
• WARNING: Weather having a SIGNIFICANT impact on society is imminent or highly likely. Dangerous conditions expected.
– For winter weather, issued within 48 hours of event onset
• ADVISORY: Weather having a MODERATE impact on society is imminent or highly likely. Hazardous conditions expected, but should not be dangerous if precautions are taken.
– An advisory is considered an UPGRADE from a watch
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Warning Triggers
• Winter Storm Warnings – 6” or more of snow in 12 hours
– 8” or more of snow in 24 hours
– ½” or of sleet
– The kitchen sink: some combination of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and strong winds
Forecaster discretion based on potential IMPACTS for sub-warning criteria events
Warning Triggers
• Blizzard Warning – 35+ mph winds (sustained or gusts)
– Visibility frequently < ¼ mile
– All of this for 3 or more hours
• What’s missing from this definition? – FALLING snow!
– Blizzard does NOT mean heavy falling snow
• Relatively infrequent in the Twin Cities – None since the “Dome Buster” in December 2010
Warning Triggers
• Winter Weather – 3”-6” of snow
– Blowing snow resulting in significant travel impacts due to reduced visibilities and drifting
– Sleet less than 1/2”
Forecaster discretion based on potential IMPACTS
• Wind Chill – Minimum apparent temperatures of -25 to -35
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Where can I find information?
• Our dissemination channels include…
– Website (www.weather.gov/twincities)
– Mobile (widget/iNWS)
– Email ([email protected])
– Social media (Facebook, Twitter, YouTube)
– NOAA Weather Radio
1: Analyze
Confidence?
Model spread
2: Collaborate 3: Communicate
Warning Process
National Weather Service Website
Watch/Warning Map Graphic
Weather Story
Short-Term Graphicast
weather.gov/twincities
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National Weather Service Website
weather.gov/twincities
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Official NWS Forecast
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
Expect at least this much Potential for this much
New…Probabilistic Snow Experiment
Exceedance Graphics
Mouse over desired amount and image appears on large screen • > 0.1” • > 1” • > 2” • > 4” • > 8” • > 12” • > 18”
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Decision Support E-mails
• Sent out to EMs and other partners ahead of significant weather events
• Provides key points for an upcoming event – Timing
– Amounts
– Confidence
• Can get these by getting your email on to our school superintendent email list for [email protected]
Decision Support E-mails
http://innovation.srh.noaa.gov/NWSwidget
Detailed forecast for your location
Hourly forecast
for first 12 hours
Radar
Satellite Forecast
Discussions
Mobile Apps
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http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov
Mobile Notifications
• iNWS – Interactive NWS
– Send weather alerts to your mobile device
– User defined alert areas and product alert list
– Intended for EMs, community leaders, and
other gov’t officials
www.mnasa.org/Domain/182
Link to 7-day forecast Weather Story Hourly Weather Graph Enhanced Hazardous Weather outlook Forecast Discussion
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Scenario
Food for Thought….
• Emergency Management Contact
• Tabletop Exercises
• StormReady
– Minnesota Association School Administrators
– StormReady in a Box
Thank you!
Sarah Karel
612-596-0757
Have a safe and warm
winter!
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