Pakistan's Counter-terrorism strategy and its Implications for

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  • Pakistans Counter-terrorism strategy and its

    Implications for domestic, regional and international

    security

    Naeem Ahmed

    To cite this version:

    Naeem Ahmed. Pakistans Counter-terrorism strategy and its Implications for domestic, re-gional and international security. FMSH-WP-2014-59. 2014.

    HAL Id: halshs-00937552

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    Submitted on 28 Jan 2014

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  • Fondation Maison des sciences de lhomme - 190 avenue de France - 75013 Paris - Francehttp://www.fmsh.fr - FMSH-WP-2014-59

    Working Papers Series

    Pakistans Counter-terrorism strategy and its Implications for domestic, regional and international security

    Naeem Ahmed

    N59 | january 2014

    The paper critically examines Pakistans counterterro-rism strategy, which it adopted after the 9/11 incident, by arguing that it has proved ineffective and counter-productive to uproot the terrorist network of Pakistan-based militant Jihadi and extremist groups, which also have links with Al-Qaeda. In this respect, the paper, besides defining and assessing Pakistans counterterro-rism strategy, also analyzes various factors which have contributed to the inefficacy of the countrys counter-terrorism strategy. Moreover, the paper also analyzes implications of the ineffectiveness of Pakistans coun-terterrorism strategy for domestic, regional and inter-national security. In the concluding analysis, the paper emphasizes upon the need of formulating an effective counterterrorism strategy of Pakistan.

    B o u r s e sF e r n a n dB r a u d e lI F E R

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    Fondation Maison des sciences de lhomme - 190 avenue de France - 75013 Paris - Francehttp://www.fmsh.fr - FMSH-WP-2014-59

    Pakistans Counter-terrorism strategy and its Implications for domestic, regional and international security

    Naeem AhmedJanuary 2014

    The authorNaeem Ahmed is an Assistant Professor at the Department of International Relations, University of Karachi, Pakistan. Ahmed did his Ph.D. in 2007 and his dissertation topic was: State, Society and Terrorism: A Case Study of Pakistan after September 11. Ahmed has also been a recipient of Ful-bright Pre-Doc scholarship at the University of Cincinnati, Ohio, USA, in the year 2003. He has seve-ral research publications on his credit both in national and international research journals. His field of research is religious extremism and terrorism with particular reference to Pakistan. He is the Editor of Pakistan Journal of International Relations (PJIR).

    The textThis text was written in october 2013, in the frame of a Fernand Braudel IFER postdoctoral fellowships in Paris.

    Acknowledgements I am highly thankful to Foundation Maison des Sciences de lHomme (FMSH) for funding the study presented in this report, as well as the Centre for South Asian Studies (CEIAS) at EHESS for providing space and conducive environment to conduct this research. Thanks are also owed to Prof Jean-Luc Racine, Senior CNRS Fellow, Paris, not only for his comments and feedback on earlier drafts of this report, but also arranging meetings with various Paris-based security analysts and think tanks, such as Asia Centre, Institut Francais des Relations Internationales (IFRI), and Fondation pour la Recherche Stratgique (FRS) etc, who shared their time and ideas in order to make the research more authentic. I am also grateful to foreign policy and security analysts in Pakistan whom I interviewed during the course of this research. The responsibility for any errors contained in this research is entirely of mine. (The author)

    Citing this documentNaeem Ahmed, Pakistans Counterterrorism strategy and its Implications for domestic, regional and interna-tional security, FMSH-WP-2014-59, january 2014.

    Fondation Maison des sciences de lhomme - 2014

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    RsumThe paper critically examines Pakistans counterterrorism strategy, which it adopted after the 9/11 inci-dent, by arguing that it has proved ineffective and counter-productive to uproot the terrorist network of Pakistan-based militant Jihadi and extremist groups, which also have links with Al-Qaeda. In this res-pect, the paper, besides defining and assessing Pakistans counterterrorism strategy, also analyzes various factors which have contributed to the inefficacy of the countrys counterterrorism strategy. Moreover, the paper also analyzes implications of the ineffectiveness of Pakistans counterterrorism strategy for domes-tic, regional and international security. In the concluding analysis, the paper emphasizes upon the need of formulating an effective counterterrorism strategy of Pakistan.

    Mots-clefsPakistan, terrorism, counterterrorism strategy, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Taliban, military operations, peace deals, security

    La stratgie anti-terroriste pakistanaise et ses implications pour la scurit nationale, rgionale et internationale

    AbstractCette tude porte un regard critique sur la stratgie contre-terroriste du Pakistan adopte aprs les atten-tats du 11 septembre, dans la mesure o elle a t inefficace, voire contre-productive. Elle na pu dloger les rseaux terroristes des groups jihadistes et extrmistes bass au Pakistan, qui ont aussi des liens avec al Qaeda. Lvaluation de la stratgie contre-terroriste pakistanaise porte donc aussi attention aux divers facteurs qui ont contribu son inefficacit. Les consquences de cet chec sur la scurit nationale, rgionale et internationale sont galement analyss. En conclusion, ltude souligne la ncessit de for-muler enfin une stratgie efficace pour vaincre le terrorisme.

    KeywordsPakistan, terrorisme, contreterrorisme, antiterrorisme, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Taliban, oprations militaires, accords de paix, scurit

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    Fondation Maison des sciences de lhomme - 190 avenue de France - 75013 Paris - Francehttp://www.fmsh.fr - FMSH-WP-2014-59

    Sommaire

    Introduction 5

    The Domestic Militant Landscape of Pakistan 6

    Evolution of Pakistans Counterterrorism Strategy 6Military Options 7

    Non-Military Options 10

    An Assessment of Pakistans Counterterrorism Strategy 13

    Security Implications 15Domestic Level 15

    Regional Level 15

    International Level 17

    Concluding Analysis 18

    Bibliography 19

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    Fondation Maison des sciences de lhomme - 190 avenue de France - 75013 Paris - Francehttp://www.fmsh.fr - FMSH-WP-2014-59

    Introduction

    Since the 9/11 incident, Pakistan has been witnessing a persistent wave of anti-state terrorism1 and sectarian violence,2 per-petrated by the home-grown terrorist network of militant Jihadi and extremist groups. The spectrum of militant violence has broade-ned, where the militant groups have now turned against the Pakistani state and its people. Internal security has collapsed to an extent that General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistans Chief of Army Staff, in his policy speech on 14th August 2012, acknowledged it by declaring internal threat big-ger than that of the external threat. (Inter-Ser-vices Public Relations (ISPR) Press Release, 14 August 2012). Although General Kayanis remarks reveal the gravity of the threat, the counterterrorism stra-tegy, which Pakistan has adopted since its joining of the US-led war on terror in the wake of the 9/11 incident, has proved ineffective and coun-ter-productive to dismantle the terrorist network of militant groups, despite launching several military operations in the Federally Administe-red Tribal Areas (