Afghanistan Counter Terrorism Affirmative

8/14/2019 Afghanistan Counter Terrorism Affirmative

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HUDL 2010 SUMMER INSTITUTECOTE AFF

Afghanistan Counterterrorism Index

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM INDE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !! "

AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #

O$SER%ATION I& INHERENC'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#

THE()AN& !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*

AD%ANTAGE I& AFGHANISTANSTA$I)IT'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+

AD%ANTAGE II& (A,ISTAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#

O$SER%ATION II& SO)%ENC'

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"-

.....AFGHANISTAN STA$I)IT' AD%ANTAGE ETENSIONS..... !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!! "/

...GOOD GO%ERNANCE...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!01222,AR3AI4ANTSTONEGOTIATE4ITHTHETA)I$AN5 $UTISINHI$ITED$'THEUS 6 4ITHDRA4A)

4OU)D(ROM(TTHETA)I$ANTOENGAGEANDSIGNA)AGO7AHEADTO,AR3AI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!01

222US (RESENCEUNDERMINES,AR3AI8S)EGITIMAC' !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0"

222US (RESENCEGUTS,AR3AI8SDOMESTICCREDI$I)IT'6 TROO(SARE(ERCEI%EDASO%ERSTA'ING

THEIR4E)COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0"

222INDE(ENDENT,AR3AI,E'TOCREDI$I)IT'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!00

...IM(ACT ETENSIONS...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0#

222MIDD)EEAST4ARGOESNUC)EAR& ISRAE)STRI,E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0#

222MIDD)EEASTINSTA$I)IT'CREATESSANCTUARIESFORTERRORISTANDDESTRO'THEG)O$A)

ECONOM'! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0*

222G)O$A)ECONOMICCO))A(SERIS,SETINCTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0*

222AFGHANINSTA$I)IT'S(I))O%ERINTOIRAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0+222IRANCONF)ICTRESU)TSINNUC)EAR4AR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0+

.....(A,ISTAN AD%ANTAGE ETENSIONS..... !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! 09

222COUNTERINSURGENC'FAI)INGNO4& MAR:AH! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0-

222NOUNI;UENESSTOTHETURNS& COUNTER7INSURGENC'ISDOOMEDTOFAI)UREANDISU)TIMATE)'

UNNECESSAR'FORSUCCESSFU)COUNTER7TERRORISM! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0aaaa


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AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC

A ounter7terrorism strategB in Afghanistan oud onB reJuire 015111 troos5 a redution of

-15111 from urrent troo ees!

Steart 6 011/[R"', #e+e$ 7ie&l' a# a! "&&ice i! the iti#h A(' /the lac atch, I! 200, he 7eca(e the c"aliti"! De8ut' "+e!""& Ma'#a! a!$ Dhi ;a :: t%" 8"+i!ce# i! the Ma#h Aa7 e4i"! "& S"uthe! Ia=. L"!$"! Re+ie% "& ""# *"l. 1 N".1 V Jul' 200 The Ie#i#ti7le Illu#i"! htt8%%%.l7.c".u+1!1"':#te%atthe:ie#i#ti7le:illu#i"!

A&te #e+e! 'ea# "& e&i!e(e!t, the 8"lic' #ee(# #" 7u"'e$ 7' illu#i"!#, caule$ i! a(7i4u"u# la!4ua4e a!$ e!cu#te$ %ith("al clai(#, a!al"4ie# a!$ 8"litical the"ie# that it ca! #ee( &utile t" 8e#e!t a! alte!ati+e. It i# 8aticulal' $i&&icult t"

a4ue !"t &" a t"tal %ith$a%al 7ut &" a ("e cauti"u# a88"ach. The est Afghan oiB oud e to redue the

numer of foreign troos from the urrent ee of /15111 to&a &e%e 8eha8# 015111. I! that ca#e, to

distint oeties oud remain&" the i!te!ati"!al c"((u!it'& deeoment and ounter7terrorism.Neithe %"ul$ a("u!t t" the 7uil$i!4 "& a! A&4ha! #tate. I& the e#t 7elie+e$ it e##e!tial t" e9clu$e al:;ai$a &"(A&4ha!i#ta!, the! the' c"ul$ $" it %ith #8ecial &"ce#. /The' ha+e $"!e it #ucce##&ull' #i!ce 2001 a!$ c"ul$ c"!ti!uei!$e&i!itel', th"u4h the e#ult ha# "!l' 7ee! t" ("+e 7i! La$e! ac"## the 7"$e. At the #a(e ti(e the e#t #h"ul$ 8"+i$e

4e!e"u# $e+el"8(e!t a##i#ta!ce !"t "!l' t" ee8 c"!#e!t &" the c"u!te:te"i#( "8eati"!#, 7ut a# a! e!$ i! it#el&.A redution in troo numers and a turn aaB from state7uiding shoud not mean tota

ithdraa& good roets oud ontinue to e undertaen in eetriitB5 ater5 irrigation5 heath5

eduation5 agriuture5 rura deeoment and in other areas&a+"ue$ 7' $e+el"8(e!t a4e!cie#. e #h"ul$!"t c"!t"l a!$ ca!!"t 8e$ict the &utue "& A&4ha!i#ta!. It (a' i! the &utue 7ec"(e ("e +i"le!t, " &i!$ a $ece!tali#e$

e=uili7iu( " a !e% !ati"!al u!it', 7ut i& it# c"((u!itie# c"!ti!ue t" %a!t t" %" %ith u#, e an, "+e 0 'ea#,

enourage the more ositie trends in Afghan soietB and he to ontain the more negatie!

"


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.....AFGHANISTAN STA$I)IT' AD%ANTAGE ETENSIONS.....

"/


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...GOOD GO%ERNANCE...

222,arai ants to negotiate ith the Taian5 ut is inhiited B the US 6 ithdraa oud

romt the Taian to engage and signa a go7ahead to ,arai

(orter 7 01"1[aeth, i!+e#ti4ati+e hi#t"ia! a!$ @"u!ali#t #8ecialia


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222US resene undermines ,arai8s egitimaB

Goodhand Sedra 6 011-[J"!atha! a!$ Ma, U!i+e#it' "& L"!$"!, $e+el"8(e!t #tu$ie# lectue AND "!! Ce!te &" I!te!ati"!al C"!+e#i"!e#each a##"ciate, Fe7ua', 200B, i7e# " a4ai!#5 )eace C"!$iti"!alitie# a!$ G)"#t:C"!&lictG Rec"!#tucti"! i!A&4ha!i#ta!, i!&"(a%"l$6

H"%e+e, ,arai is not a free agent, and his room for manoeure has een inuened B

internationa oiies as e as the domesti onsteation of oitia fores . Fi#t, a# Ru7i! a4ue#, thee%a# !" (echa!i#( t" c""$i!ate 8"litical(ea#ue# %ith the 7e!ch(a# &" the #ecuit' a!$ #"ci":ec"!"(ic ta!#iti"!#.F"( the "ut#et, i!te!ati"!al 8"licie# i! the #ecuit' #8hee, !"ta7l' US ar onditionaities, undermined the

soe for ,arai to marginaie regiona strongmen. The autonomB of US fores and their a ofaountaiitB to the Afghan authorities highight the ereied eaness of the ,arai regime5

undermining his egitimaB. A# A#ti Suhe !"te#, hen the ,arai goernment aears to e so

deendent on its aB and unae to inuene its ehaiour5 otentia suorters maB auate

that it is not safe to thro in their ot ith the ne administration! 1Thi# ha# e#ulte$ i! the c"!ti!uati"!"& Wui$ 8"litical aa!4e(e!t#, tai!4 the &"( "& P#8"t c"!tact# " he$4i!4 athe tha! l"!4:te( ai$:&":8eace 7a4ai!#.222US resene guts ,arai8s domesti rediiitB 6 troos are ereied as oerstaBing their

eome

3ahir 6 011/

[Mi


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222Indeendent ,arai eB to rediiitB

Rosenerg Siege 6 01"1[Matthe% Q )ete, #ta&& e8"te#, The all Steet J"u!al /21-10, U.S. et# e#t All' i! Su4e i# Ol$ O!e,htt8"!li!e.%#@.c"(aticleS100012032BB013003B30B3302030-.ht(l

$B giing Mr! ,arai resonsiiitB oer eB eements of the amaign5 4estern offiias are

hoing he i seie the attefied adantage gien to him B the arria of thousands of fresh

Amerian troos and turn it into a hane to re7estaish his goernmentsLand his onL

rediiitB!

$esides eing gien the ast ord on the Marah offensie5 Mr! ,arai has een riefed reeatedB

on the atte ans5 meeting freJuentB ith e!. MChrBsta and seaing often ith senior

offiias from 4ashington, i!clu$i!4 Nati"!al Secuit' A$+i#e Ja(e# J"!e#, acc"$i!4 t" A&4ha! a!$ U.S. "&&icial#.

K4e ant to mae him on this! 4hat e need is to mae him into a 4inston Churhi ho an

raB his eoe5#ai$ "!e 8e#"! i!+"l+e$ i! the e&&"t. M. >a


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...IM(ACT ETENSIONS...222Midde East 4ar goes nuear& Israe strie!

GaffneB 6 011#/Ma, a e#eache, %ite, 8"et, e!+i"!(e!tali#t, a!ti:!uclea acti+i#t ill Ia! 7e !e9t5 Alte!ati+e# Tui#h J"u!al "&INte!ati"!al A&&ai#, Su((e *"l 2,%%%.alte!ati+e#@"u!al.!et+"lu(e2!u(7e24a&&!e'.8$&

It is erB ossie::#"(e %"ul$ #a' 8"7a7le::that the U!S!58"##i7l' in onuntion ith Israe, i aunh

a reentie raid and destroB the $ushehr reator efore it goes on ine. Such a ai$ %"ul$ 7e &ate&ul

&" the e4i"! a!$ the %"l$. It %"ul$ ti44e another Mideast ar, and ossiB a onfrontation ithRussia, %ith e&&ect# that ae $i&&icult t" 8e$ict.A ar ith Iran might ring aout the oase of the N(T5ead to a ne arms rae5 and unge the ord into nuear haos. Suh a risis hods the otentiato ring the ord to the nuear rin!Thi# aticle %ill e+ie% the 7ac4"u!$, a!$ 8"+i$e a! a!al'#i#. I %ill$i#cu## the eact" at u#heh &i#t, the! the "the #u#8ect #ite

0#
http://www.alternativesjournal.net/volume2/number2/gaffney.pdfhttp://www.alternativesjournal.net/volume2/number2/gaffney.pdf


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222Midde East instaiitB reates santuaries for Terrorist and destroB the goa eonomB!

Monarh 6 011/[Lieute!a!t C"l"!el R"7et M. /De!'i!4 Sa!ctua', $tic.(ilc4i:7i!etTRD"c5L"cati"!U2Q$"cetTRD"c.8$&QADADA016

A# !"te$, at stae in7"th Ia= a!$ Afghanistan is the fate of oth nations8goernments. I!#u4e!cie# ae$ai!i!4 thei !ati"!al tea#ue# a!$ #a88i!4 the %ill "& the 8"8ulace t" e#i#t. F" the U!ite$ State# a!$ "u c"aliti"!

8at!e#, the #tae# ae e=uall' hi4h. A stae Midde East and unhindered trade are neessarB for ita

eonomies ithin the United States5 its aies5 and the Midde Eastern ountries . Al#", the ord

annot afford for terrorists to one again estaish ases in Southest Asian nations ith

sBmatheti regimes. Fi!all', defeating these insurgenies i so the drain of our nationa

treasures5 oth ood and resoures5 hie roiding a groth of restige amongst friends and

foes aie around the ord! To defeat the insurgenies5 the santuaries must e eiminated!

222Goa eonomi oase riss extintion

,eren 6 011a!$aha ai 7a#e $ui!4 a #"8hi#ticate$ "8eati"! "+e the %eee!$.

I& >a!$aha i# #h"% ti(e, the! Marah has een the dress rehearsa. It is not going e! The Marah

oeration has not een suessfu in rooting out Taian eements5 hih ontinue to terrorie the

ouation and undermine the Afghan goernment that as suosed to tae root in the inetB

named goernment in a ox exeriment . It i# clea that c"aliti"! &"ce#, %hile #ee(i!4l' a7le t" clea "ut&i4hte# $ui!4 the i!itial 7attle, ca!!"t &ull' ea$icate the $ee8 ""t# "& the i!#u4e!c'. A# Cal"tta all, "!e "& the 7e#t

e#te! e8"te# i! A&4ha!i#ta!, !"te$ la#t %ee, the Taian Kae +illa4e (e! %h" !e+e le&t the aea alth"u4h the' =uit&i4hti!4 #""! a&te the (ilita' "8eati"!. a$uall' the' found a steathier aB of oerating5 moing around

in sma grous5 often B motorie or on foot! Rather than mereB aiting unti the time is rie

to resurge5 then5 oa fighters must e onined to thro in their ots ith the Afghan

goernment! Hoeer5 a of seuritB5 oor erformane of the Afghan armed fores5 and the

so ae of goernment roets hae undermined the rediiitB of the MChrBsta strategB

?and its artners in the Afghan goernment@ and ated as fore mutiiers for the Taians

intimidation tatis! Though sti in rogress5 the Marah offensie 77 a eeding uer 77 eaes

muh to e desired!

0-


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222No uniJueness to the turns& Counter7insurgenB is doomed to faiure and is utimateB

unneessarB for suessfu ounter7terrorism!

Simon Steenson 6 011/

[Ste+e! Q J"!atha! A$@u!ct Se!i" Fell"% at the C"u!cil "! F"ei4! Relati"!#, i# a )"&e##" "& State4ic Stu$ie# at the USNa+al a C"lle4e A&4ha!i#ta! H"% Much i# E!"u4h5G, Su+i+al, 31 3, B ? -B6

Counter7insurgenB in Afghanistan aso oud roaB fai! CounterinsurgenB 4e!eall' ors

onB hen the $"(e#tic 4"+e!(e!t e#i#ti!4 the insurgents e!@"'# the reset and suort of most of the

domesti ouation. Rising eretions of Ha(i$ ,arais goernment as ineffetua and orrut,

a!$ e#8eciall' #u#8ici"!# that it i44e$ the 20 Au4u#t !ati"!al electi"!, indiate that it does not hae that i!$ "&

rediiitB among Afghans. O! the "8eati"!al le+el, 8"+i#i"!al a!$ =uali&ie$ c"u!te:i!#u4e!c' #ucce## i! Ia= i#!"t a 8e#ua#i+e 8ece$e!t &" a c"(8aa7le e#ult i! A&4ha!i#ta!. O!e i!$iect i!$icati"! i# the $i&&icult' the O7a(aa$(i!i#tati"! i# ha+i!4 i! &i4ui!4 "ut h"% t" (ea#ue #uch #ucce## hile Ia=G# 8i(e i!#u4e!c' challe!4e# %eee##e!tiall' c"(8at(e!tali#e$ i! the c"!&i!e$ #8ace a!$ a("!4 the elati+el' #(all 8"8ulati"!# "& A!7a, Di'ala a!$

Ni!e%ah 8"+i!ce# a!$ i! a4h$a$, A&4ha!i#ta!G# ha


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222Counter7insurgenB faiing no& ,arai

FI),INS 6 01"1[DEZTER, #ta&& %ite, The Ne% " Ti(e# >aaa


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222No in& Can signa dediation to (aistan ithout troos!

MareB 6 011-[Da!iel, A Fal#e Ch"ice i! )ai#ta!. ' Mae', Da!iel, F"ei4! A&&ai#, 0013B120, JulAu4200B, *"l. -, I##ue 6

Thi$, i& a!$ %he! 4eate c"eci"! i# $ee(e$ !ece##a', it #h"ul$ 7e a88lie$ th"u4h $e(a!$# &" ("ee!4a4e(e!t. Rathe tha! theate!i!4 t" cut "&& a##i#ta!ce, the hite H"u#e #h"ul$ i!#i#t "! 4eateacce##::t" )ai#ta!i i!telli4e!ce "8eati+e#, t" a(' a!$ "the #ecuit' &"ce#, t" i!&"(ati"!.a#hi!4t"! #h"ul$ 8ut a! e!$ t" a!' li!4ei!4 $"u7t# a7"ut it# 8la!# t" #ta' acti+el' i!+"l+e$ i!)ai#ta! a!$ the e4i"!. I#la(a7a$ i# $ee8l' a+e#e t" ha+i!4 U.S. a(e$ &"ce# "8eate aut"!"("u#l' %ithi! )ai#ta!,#" the#e $e(a!$# #h"ul$ !"t 7e ai#e$ 8u7licl', a!$ a! e&&"t #h"ul$ 7e (a$e t" &i!$ le## c"!#8icu"u# %a'# t" i!te4ate

A(eica!# i!t" )ai#ta!i "8eati"!#. T"$a'G# c"((u!icati"!#, ec"!!ai##a!ce, a!$ l"!4:a!4e #tietech!"l"4ie# ca! 7i!4 U.S. &"ce# i!t" a &i4ht %ith"ut e+e 8laci!4 7""t# "! the 4"u!$. e'"!$8"##i7le tactical 7e!e&it#, 4eate U.S. i!+"l+e(e!t %"ul$ #e!$ the #i4!al that a#hi!4t"! 8la!# t"i!+e#t i! l"!4:#ta!$i!4, %"i!4:le+el tie# a!$ that it# ulti(ate 4"al i# $ee8e, cl"#e c""8eati"!.

#1


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222Inreased troos in Afghanistan inreases (aistan instaiitB!

Simon Steenson 6 011/[Ste+e! Q J"!atha! A$@u!ct Se!i" Fell"% at the C"u!cil "! F"ei4! Relati"!#, i# a )"&e##" "& State4ic Stu$ie# at the USNa+al a C"lle4e A&4ha!i#ta! H"% Much i# E!"u4h5G, Su+i+al, 31 3,6

Al:;ae$a e(ai!# the 7i44e#t theat t" the U!ite$ State# i! Ce!tal a!$ S"uth A#ia, a!$ ounter7terrorism is thus sti

4ashingtons most ressing tas! There is itte disute on this oint! The Juestion is hether

ounter7insurgenB and state7uiding in Afghanistan are the est means of exeuting it! The mere

fat that the ore threat to US interests no resides in (aistan rather than Afghanistan asts

onsiderae dout on the roosition! Unie the Taian5 the seuar (aistani goernment is not

a iae target for the US miitarB. It# elati"!#hi8 t" al:;ae$a i# &a ("e #u7tle a!$ c"(8licate$ tha! %a# the Tali7a!G#.heea# the Tali7a! e(7ace$ al;ae$a a# a! ec"!"(ic 7e!e&act" i! the a7#e!ce "& i!te!ati"!al le4iti(ac', a!$ thu# a("u!te$ t" a &ull

#tate4ic all' "& a! e!e(', I#la(a7a$ 8ecei+e# al:;ae$a a# a i!$ "& +iu# it i# ulti(atel' i!i(ical t" the )ai#ta!i lea$e#hi8, 7ut the

rong ind of oerion oud ause it to mutate into something more dangerous 7 to it5 a

ataBsing moement that fues Isami radiaisation in (aistan and imeris the seuar regime!

This is one reason that (aistans ounter7terrorism and ounter7insurgenB ooeration has eenso errati. A!"the ea#"! i# that hel8i!4 t" ee8 the Tali7a! a +ia7le 8"litical 8la'e i! A&4ha!i#ta! #e+e# )ai#ta!G# e4i"!al #tate4ici!tee#t# i! 8"+i$i!4 )ai#ta! %ith #tate4ic $e8th +i#::+i# I!$ia a!$ i! $e!'i!4 I!$ia a &ull' #ta7le a!$ c""8eati+e e4i(e thee.

)e#i$e!t O7a(a ha# ca#t A&4ha!i#ta! a# a !e4lecte$ %a "& !ece##it' i! c"!ta#t t" the 8utati+e %a "& ch"ice %ith Ia=. et &" theU!ite$ State#, a!' a!al'tic $i#ti!cti"! 7et%ee! a %a "& ch"ice a!$ "!e "& !ece##it' at thi# 8"i!t i# a4ua7l' u!te!a7le i& !ece##it' i# a&u!cti"! "& a! e9i#te!tial theat : that i#, "!e that i(8eil# the A(eica! #tate : the U!ite$ State# &ace# !"!e &"( a!' =uate, #" !" %a itu!$etae# i# tul' !ece##a' i! that #e!#e. The S"+iet U!i"!, %ith a7u!$a!t !uclea %ea8"!# a!$ a +a#t, %ell e=ui88e$ (ilita', %a# a!e9i#te!tial theat. Al:;ae$a, th"u4h e9te(el' $a!4e"u# a!$ $i#u8ti+e, i# !"t.G a, "& c"u#e, (a' 7e "! 7ala!ce a $e#ia7le " a$+i#a7le%a' "& a$+a!ci!4 A(eica! i!tee#t#. I! the ca#e "& A&4ha!i#ta!, the i(8licit a##u(8ti"! "& US 8"lic'(ae# i# that 8aci&'i!4 the c"u!t'th"u4h c"eci+e a!$ e98a!#i+e c"u!te:i!#u4e!c' "8eati"!# a!$ a c"!cete$ e&&"t t" 7i!4 "$e t" it# 8"litic# %ill (ae it ea#ie, " atlea#t %ill !"t (ae it ha$e, t" c"!tai! e4i"!al (ilita!c' a!$ e!#ue #ta7ilit' i! )ai#ta!. The U!ite$ State# 8la!# t" 7i!4 the A(eica!t""8 8e#e!ce i! A&4ha!i#ta! t" B,000 7' (i$ 2010, %hich %"ul$ e8e#e!t a! i!cea#e "& !eal' a thi$ "+e the (i$ 200 !u(7e.Fi#cal:'ea 2010 &u!$i!4 &" O8eati"! E!$ui!4 Fee$"( %ill i!cea#e 7' al("#t 0\, i!clu$i!4 a B.3 7illi"! 7u(8 &" the A&4ha!#ecuit' &"ce# a!$ a! a$$iti"!al B00 (illi"! &" the )ai#ta! C"u!tei!#u4e!c' Ca8a7ilit' Fu!$, a &le9i7le #8e!$i!4 8"4a((e that

all"%# &" #%i&te a!$ ("e tail"e$ tai!i!4 a!$ e=ui8(e!t &" )ai#ta!i c"u!te:i!#u4e!c' &"ce#. I!$ee$, i! Au4u#t 200 USc"((a!$e# 7e4a! 8e##i!4 &" ("e t""8# t" 7e $e8l"'e$ at a &a#te 8ace. hate+e US "&&icial# (i4ht c"!ce$e 8i+atel', the

4hite House, State De8at(e!t a!$ )e!ta4"! hae thus far not anoedged uiB the ossiiitB that

greater Amerian intrusieness in Afghanistan might mean ess (aistani ooeration! That5

hoeer5 aears to e the ase!T" 7e #ue, )ai#ta! ha# 8a4(aticall' e#8"!$e$ t" US 8e##ue t" th%at the Tali7a! i! it#

ti7al aea#. ut it is more signifiant in the roader strategi ontext that (aistan has oeted to

exanded US miitarB oerations in Afghanistan on to grounds! FirstB5 theB oud ause a

ross7order sioer of miitants into (aistan and inrease the ounter7insurgenB urden on

the (aistani miitarB! SeondB5 theB oud foment oitia instaiitB in (aistan B intensifBing

ouar eretions of Amerian miitarB "ccu8ati"! "& the e4i"! a!$ the )ai#ta!i 4"+e!(e!tG# c"(8licit' %ith theA(eica!# i! #u88e##i!4 a 4"u8 that %a# !"t e+e! c"!#i$ee$ a! e!e(' "& )ai#ta!. I!$ee$, i! a Jul' #tate4ic 8i"it' 200 7ie&i!4,)ai#ta!i "&&icial# (a$e it clea that, h"%e+e c"!ce!e$ the U!ite$ State# %a# a7"ut the Tali7a!, the' #till e4a$ I!$ia a# thei t"8

#tate4ic 8i"it' a!$ the Tali7a! (ilita!t# a# little ("e tha! a c"!tai!a7le !ui#a!ce a!$, i! the l"!4 te(, 8"te!tial allie#.3 I! thi#

li4ht, the reaisti Amerian oetie shoud !"t 7e t" e!#ue A&4ha!i#ta!G# 8"litical i!te4it' 7' !eutali#i!4 the Tali7a!

a!$ c"!tai!i!4 )ai#ta!i a$icali#(, %hich i# 8"7a7l' u!achie+a7le. Rathe, it# ai( #h"ul$ e mereB to ensure that a7

;aeda is denied oth Afghanistan and (aistan as oerating ases for transnationa attas on

the United States and its aies and artners.

#"


32/48


222Inreasing troos i oase (aistan 6 reduing the US miitarB footrint is ita to soing

,ristof 6 011//Nich"la#, t%" ti(e )ulit


33/48


222Counter7insurgenB i inrease Anti7Amerianism and the ris of terrorism!

Simon Steenson 6 011/[Ste+e! Q J"!atha! A$@u!ct Se!i" Fell"% at the C"u!cil "! F"ei4! Relati"!#, i# a )"&e##" "& State4ic Stu$ie# at the USNa+al a C"lle4e A&4ha!i#ta! H"% Much i# E!"u4h5G, Su+i+al, 31 3,6

The Oama administrations instints faouring roust ounter7insurgenB and state7uiding in

Afghanistan refet the "//os7era US and Euroean redietion for eaeeeing5 reonstrution

and staiisation5 and the mutiatera use of fore for humanitarian interention, $e8l"'e$ t" 8"#iti+ee&&ect i! the ala!# a!$ %ithhel$ ta4icall' i! R%a!$a. T" the e9te!t that thi# (i!$#et %a# 8e(i#e$ "! a! e98a!#i"! "& theule "& la% t" hithet" 8""l' a!$ u!@u#tl' 4"+e!e$ aea#, #uch a# S"(alia a!$ "#!ia, it e&lect# the 7"a$e c"!ce8ti"! "&c"u!te:te"i#( a$"8te$ a&te ii Se8te(7e.I!#"&a a# it &a+"u# c"llecti+e acti"! 7' (a@" 8"%e# %ith the u!a(7i4u"u# e!$"#e(e!t "& the UN Secuit' C"u!cil, it i#al#" c"!#i#te!t %ith the O7a(a a$(i!i#tati"!G# e@ecti"! "& u#h:ea u!ilateali#(. A!$ a! a44e##i+e i!te!ati"!ali#ta88"ach t" #8ea$i!4 $e("cac' a!$ the ule "& la%, !"t%ith#ta!$i!4 the #h"t#i4hte$!e## a!$ i!e&&icac' "& the u#h

$"cti!e, i# a$(ia7le a!$ i! #"(e i!#ta!ce# a88"8iate.G In this ase5 hoeer5 it is more ieB to hurt than

he! 4hie a arger US miitarB footrint might he staiise Afghanistan in the short term5 the

effets of oatera damage and the aura of US domination it oud generate oud aso intensifBanti7Amerianism in (aistan! This outome5 in turn5 oud frustrate oth ore Amerian

oeties B rendering it oitiaB far more diffiut for the (aistani goernment to ooerate

ith 4ashington /a!$ ea#ie &" the =ua#i:i!$e8e!$e!t I!te:Se+ice# I!telli4e!ce t" c"llu$e %ith the Tali7a! a!$ al:

;ae$a, thu# (ai!4 it ha$e &" the U!ite$ State# t" $e&eat al;ae$a. It oud aso inrease radiaisation in

(aistan5 imeri the regime and raise roiferation riss5 inreasing rather than dereasing

ressure on India to at in the reah of Amerian ineffetuaitB!

##


34/48


222Reduing fores in Afghanistan and fousing on ounter7terrorism efforts stos inreasing

radiaism in (aistan!

Innoent 6 011/

[Mal"u F"ei4! )"lic' A!al'#t at the Cat" I!#titute The US Mu#t Rea##e## It# D"!e )"lic'htt8%%%.cat"."48u7$i#8la'.8h858u7i$10B The US Mu#t Rea##e## It# D"!e )"lic'6

Drone stries aso ontriute to the idening trust defiit eteen (aistanis a!$ the US. A ece!t 8"ll

c"!$ucte$ 7' allu8 )ai#ta! &" Al:Ja


35/48


.....HEGEMON' AD%ANTAGE.....

#+


36/48


222CounterinsurgenB i oase hegemonB 6 ineitae ithdra of faied ar!

Simon Steenson 6 011/[Ste+e! Q J"!atha! A$@u!ct Se!i" Fell"% at the C"u!cil "! F"ei4! Relati"!#, i# a )"&e##" "& State4ic Stu$ie# at the USNa+al a C"lle4e A&4ha!i#ta! H"% Much i# E!"u4h5G, Su+i+al, 31 3, B ? -B6

The u8#h"t i# that onB if the United States estaishes a e7airated imited oiB no i it hae

the oitia fexiiitB to sustain it oer the onger7term and thereB to effetieB ontain the

ihadist threat in Centra Asia! If, "! the "the ha!$,the Oama administration romises more than it

an deier in Afghanistan5 a rerise of %ietnam maB our& one faiure eomes ear5 domesti

suort i eaorate5 the administration i e omeed to ithdra reiitousB5 and the

United States i ose onsiderae tration in the region.

#9


37/48


38/48


222Afghanistan is a Juagmire of attrition arfare that is destroBing US morae and readiness!

,uhner 6 011//Je&&e', the 8e#i$e!t "& the E$(u!$ ue I!#titute &" A(eica! Re!e%al, a#hi!4t"! Ti(e#, O7a(a# =ua4(ie US#h"ul$ l"" t" it# "%! i!tee#t#, B, Le9i# Aca$e(ic

The troo surge, h"%e+e,i not or. Afghanistan has eome Mr! Oamas %ietnam 7 a rotrated

Juagmiredraining reious Amerian ooda!$ tea#ue. Au4u#t %a# the $ea$lie#t ("!th &" U.S. &"ce#, %ith B #"l$ie# ille$ 7'Tali7a! i!#u4e!t#. M"e tha! 00 c"aliti"! t""8# ha+e $ie$ i! 200. Thi# i# the hi4he#t t"ll #i!ce the %a 7e4a! i! 2001, a!$ thee ae #till &"u ("!th# t"4".

The ti$e "& 7attle ha# tu!e$ a4ai!#t the e#t. The Tali7a! i# e#u4e!t. It ha# ea##ete$ c"!t"l "+e it# #"uthe! #t"!4h"l$ i! >a!$aha.The Taian

is aunhing deastating attas i! the %e#te! a!$ !"the! 8at# "& the c"u!t' : &"(el' #ta7le aea#. U!S! asuaties are soaring!

The morae of oaition fores is ummeting. M"#t "& "u allie# : %ith the e9ce8ti"! "& the Ca!a$ia!# a!$ the iti#h : ae elucta!t t"

e!4a4e the I#la(i#t (ilita!t#.Amerian ui suort for the ar is aning!The c"!&lict ha# $a44e$ "! &" !eal' ei4ht 'ea#. /U.S. i!+"l+e(e!t i! "l$ a II %a# &"u 'ea#, "l$ a I le## tha! "!e. et, A(eicaG# #tate4ic"7@ecti+e# e(ai! i!c"hee!t a!$ elu#i+e.The %aG# i!itial ai( %a# t" t"88le the Tali7a! a!$ ea$icate al ;ae$a 7a#e# &"( A&4ha! teit"'. Th"#e 4"al# ha+e 7ee! achie+e$. a#hi!4t"! #h"ul$ha+e $eclae$ +ict"' a!$ &"cu#e$ "! the ("e i(8"ta!t i##ue 8e+e!ti!4 I#la(ic &u!$a(e!tali#t# &"( #eia7ul.)e#i$e!t Ha(i$ >a


39/48


222Afghanistan has deeted the US strategi resere of ground fores

Friedman 6 01"1/e"4e, A(eica! 8"litical #cie!ti#t. He i# the chie& i!telli4e!ce "&&ice, a!$ CEO "& the 8i+ate i!telli4e!ce c"8"ati"!Stat&". )i" t" Stat&", Fie$(a! #8e!t al("#t t%e!t' 'ea# i! aca$e(ia, teachi!4 8"litical #cie!ce at Dici!#"! C"lle4e.Dui!4 thi# ti(e, he e4ulal' 7ie&e$ #e!i" c"((a!$e# i! the a(e$ #e+ice# a# %ell a# the U.S. A(' a C"lle4e, The0:ea a i! A&4ha!i#ta!, Stat&", -2,htt8%%%.#tat&".c"(%eel'20100-20'ea%aa&4ha!i#ta!

Thee i# a! a!"(al' i! thi# #tate4', h"%e+e. hee the U!ite$ State# 8e+i"u#l' ha$ $e+"l+e$ "8eati"!al e#8"!#i7ilit' t"allie$ 4"u8#, " #i(8l' hu!ee$ $"%!, thi# #tate4' tie# t" etu! t" $e+"l+e$ e#8"!#i7ilitie# 7' &i#t #u4i!4 U.S."8eati"!#. The &"uth 8ha#e actuall' i!cea#e# U.S. "8eati"!al e#8"!#i7ilit' i! "$e t" e$uce it.

From the grand strategi oint of ie5 the United States needs to ithdra from Afghanistan5 a

andoed ountrB here U!S! fores are deendent on tortuous suB ines! hate+e A&4ha!i#ta!#

+a#t (i!eal iche#, (i!i!4 the( i! the (i$#t "& %a i# !"t 4"i!4 t" ha88e!. M"e i(8"ta!t, the U!ite$ State# is

oerommitted in the region and as a strategi resere of ground fores! A&4ha!i#ta! ulti(atel' i# !"t#tate4icall' e##e!tial, a!$ thi# i# %h' the U!ite$ State# ha# !"t hi#t"icall' u#e$ it# "%! &"ce# thee.O7a(a# atte(8t t" etu! t" that tac a&te &i#t i!cea#i!4 U.S. &"ce# t" #et the #ta4e &" the 8"litical #ettle(e!t that %ill

all"% a U.S. %ith$a%al i# ha(8ee$ 7' the !ee$ t" 7e4i! te(i!ati!4 the "8eati"! 7' 2011 /alth"u4h thee i# !" &i9e$te(i!ati"! $ate. It %ill 7e $i&&icult t" $a% c"aliti"! 8at!e# i!t" l"cal #tuctue# %he! the &"u!$ati"! ? U.S. 8"tecti"! ?i# %ith$a%i!4. Ste!4the!i!4 l"cal &"ce# 7' 2011 %ill 7e $i&&icult. M"e"+e, the Tali7a!# ("ti+ati"! t" e!te i!t" tal# i#

li(ite$ 7' the eal' %ith$a%al. At the #a(e ti(e, ith no ground omat strategi resere5 the U!ite$ State# is

unerae esehere in the ord5 and the onger the Afghan dradon taes5 the more

unerae it eomes /he!ce the 2011 $ea$li!e i! O7a(a# %a 8la!.

I! #u(, thi# i# the =ua!$a' i!hee!t i! the #tate4' It is neessarB to ithdra as earB as ossie, 7ut eal'%ith$a%al u!$e(i!e# 7"th c"aliti"! 7uil$i!4 a!$ !e4"tiati"!#. The ecuit(e!t a!$ u#e "& i!$i4e!"u# A&4ha! &"ce# (u#t("+e e9te(el' a8i$l' t" hit the $ea$li!e /th"u4h "&&iciall' "! tac =ua!titati+el', thee ae #ei"u# =ue#ti"!# a7"ut=ualitati+e (ea#ue# ? he!ce, the a44e##i+e "8eati"!# that ha+e 7ee! ("u!te$ "+e ece!t ("!th#. ut the c"elati"! "&&"ce# i# #uch that the U!ite$ State# 8"7a7l' %ill !"t 7e a7le t" i(8"#e a! acce8ta7le 8"litical ealit' i! the ti(e &a(ea+aila7le. Thu#, A&4ha! )e#i$e!t Ha(i$ >a


40/48


222CounterinsurgenB i oiterate Amerian rimaB

(Bne 6 011/[Da+i$, *ice Chai "& the Utah State Le4i#lati+e C"(8e!#ati"! C"((i##i"! a!$ *ice )e#i$e!t "& the A##"ciati"! "& theU!ite$ State# A('G# Utah cha8te a!$ a *ice )e#i$e!t "& the Salt Lae T"tal F"ce Cha8te "& the Milita' O&&ice#A##"ciati"! "& A(eica, O7a(a &aili!4 "u t""8# i! A&4ha!i#ta!, 11B,htt8%e#te!&"!ta(eica.c"(200110B"7a(a:&aili!4:t""8#:a&4ha!i#ta!6

Si!ce %e i!+a$e$ Ia= #i9 a!$ a hal& 'ea# a4" a!$ A&4ha!i#ta! ei4ht 'ea# a4", %e ha+e l"#t !eal' B,000 A(eica! #"l$ie# a!$c"!tact"# ille$ i! acti"! %ith te!# "& th"u#a!$# ("e #e+eel' %"u!$e$ at the c"#t "& a tilli"! $"lla# thu# &a. Oct"7e ha# 7ee! the#i!4le $ea$lie#t ("!th &" US &"ce# #i!ce the %a 7e4a!. It #h"ul$!t tae a (ilita' #tate4i#t t" eali


41/48


222HegemonB eB to reenting ord ars

ThaBer 6 0119[a$le', 8"&e##" "& #ecuit' #tu$ie# at Mi##"ui State, The Nati"!al I!tee#t, I! De&e!#e "& )i(ac',N"+e(7eDece(7e, 8. 2:B6

A 4a!$ #tate4' 7a#e$ "! A(eica! 8i(ac' (ea!# e!#ui!4 the U!ite$ State# #ta'# the %"l$G# !u(7e "!e 8"%e:the $i8l"(atic, ec"!"(ic a!$ (ilita' lea$e. Th"#e a4ui!4 a4ai!#t 8i(ac' clai( that the U!ite$ State# #h"ul$ ete!ch, eithe 7ecau#e the U!ite$ State# lac# the 8"%e t" (ai!tai! it# 8i(ac' a!$ #h"ul$ %ith$a% &"( it# 4l"7al c"((it(e!t#, " 7ecau#e the (ai!te!a!ce "& 8i(ac' %ill lea$ theU!ite$ State# i!t" the ta8 "& Ki(8eial "+e#tetch.K I! the 8e+i"u# i##ue "& The Nati"!al I!tee#t, Chi#t"8he La'!e %a!e$ "& the#e $a!4e# "& 8i(ac' a!$ calle$ &" ete!ch(e!t.1 Th"#e a4ui!4 &" a 4a!$ #tate4' "& ete!ch(e!t ae a $i+e#e l"t. The' i!clu$e i#"lati"!i#t#, %h" %a!t !" &"ei4! (ilita' c"((it(e! t# #electi+e e!4a4e#, %h" %a!t U.S. (ilita' c"((it(e!t# t" ce!te# "& ec"!"(ic (i4ht a!$

"&h"e 7ala!ce#, %h" %a!t a ("$i&ie$ &"( " & #electi+e e!4a4e(e!t that %"ul$ ha+e the U!ite$ State# a7a!$"! it# la!$8"%e 8e#e!ce a7"a$ i! &a+" "& el'i!4 "! ai8"%e a!$ #ea8"%e t" $e&e!$ it# i!tee#t#. utretrenhment , i! a!' "& it# 4ui#e#, (u#t 7e a+"i$e$. I& the U!ite$ State# a$"8te$ #uch a #tate4', it %"ul$ 7e a 8"&"u!$ #tate4ic (i#tae thatoud ead to far greater instaiitB and ar in the ord,i(8eil A(eica! #ecuit' a!$ $e!' the U!ite$ State# a!$ it# allie# the 7e!e&it# "& 8i(ac'. Thee ae t%" citical i##ue# i! a!' $i#cu##i"! "& A(eicaG# 4a!$ #tate4' Ca! A(eica e(ai! the$"(i!a!t #tate5 Sh"ul$ it #ti+e t" $" thi#5 A(eica ca! e(ai! $"(i!a!t $ue t" it# 8"$i4i"u# (ilita', ec"!"(ic a!$ #"&t 8"%e ca8a7ilitie#. The t"talit' "& that e=uati"! "& 8"%e a!#%e# the &i#t i##ue. The U!ite$ State# ha# "+e%hel(i!4 (ilita' ca8a7ilitie# a!$ %ealth i! c"(8ai#"! t" "the #tate# " liel' 8"te!tial allia!ce#. ai!4 #"(e $i#a#te " te(e!$"u# &"ll', that %ill e(ai! the ca#e &" the &"e#eea7le&utue. ith &e% e9ce8ti"!#, e+e! th"#e %h" a$+"cate ete!ch(e!t ac!"%le$4e thi#. S" the $e7ate e+"l+e# a"u!$ the $e#ia7ilit' "& (ai!tai!i!4 A(eica! 8i(ac'. )"8"!e!t# "& ete!ch(e!t &"cu# a 4eat $eal "! the c"#t# "& U.S. acti"! 7ut the' &all t" ealiu%ait, the )ale#ti!ia! Auth"it' a!$ E4'8t. ' all acc"u!t#, the (ach "& $e("cac' ha# 7ee! i(8e##i+e.

Thi$, al"!4 %ith the 4"%th i! the !u(7e "& $e("catic #tate# a"u!$ the %"l$ ha# 7ee! the 4"%th "& the 4l"7al ec"!"('. 4ith its aies5 the U!ite$ State# has aored to reate an eonomiaB iera

ordide netor harater ied B free trade and ommere5 reset for internationa roertB rights5

and mo iitB of aita and aor marets. The ec"!"(ic #ta7ilit' a!$ 8"#8eit' that #te(# &"( thi# ec"!"(ic "$e i# a 4l"7al 8u7lic 4""$ &"( %hich all #tate# 7e!e&it, 8aticulal' the 8""e#t #tate# i! the Thi$ "l$. The U!ite$ State# ceate$ thi# !et%" !"t "ut "& altui#( 7ut &" the 7e!e&it

a!$ the ec"!"(ic %ell:7ei!4 "& A(eica. This ec"!"(ic "$efores A(eica!industries to e ometitie5 maximies effiienies and groth5 and enefitsdefense as e eause the sie of the eonomB maes the defense urden manageae. Ec"!"(ic #8i!:"& &"#te the $e+el"8(e!t "& (ilita' tech!"l"4', hel8i!4 t"

e!#ue (ilita' 8"%e##. )eha8# the 4eate#t te#ta(e!t t" the 7e!e&it# "& the ec"!"(ic !et%" c"(e# &"( Dee8a Lal, a &"(e I!$ia! &"ei4! #e+ice $i8l"(at a!$ e#eache at the "l$ a!, %h" #tate$ hi# caee c"!&i$e!t i! the #"ciali#t i$e"l"4' "& 8"#t:i!$e8e!$e!ce I!$ia. A7a!$"!i!4 the 8"#iti"!# "& hi# '"uth, Lal !"% ec"4!i


42/48


.....SO)%ENC' ETENSIONS.....

*0


43/48


222The an soes 6 reduing to a ounterterrorism fous reates sustainae resene5 and

reents aiations eteen engagement and isoationism

Steart 6 011/

[R'a! Fa(il' )"&e##" "& the )actice "& Hu(a! Ri4ht# a!$ Diect" "& the Ca Ce!te &" Hu(a! Ri4ht# )"lic', #tu$ie$ atO9&"$ a!$ #e+e$ 7ie&l' i! the iti#h a(' 7e&"e %"i!4 i! the $i8l"(atic #e+ice i! I!$"!e#ia a!$ a# iti#he8e#e!tati+e t" M"!te!e4" /1-0, R"', The Futue "& A&4ha!i#ta!, htt8%%%.h#.ha+a$.e$u!e%#:e+e!t#!e%#te#ti("!ie#"':#te%at:"!:a&4ha!i#ta!6

The est Afghan oiB oud e to redue the !u(7e "& &"ei4! troos from the cue!t le+el "& /15111 to &a

&e%e 8eha8# 015111. I! that ca#e, t%" $i#ti!ct "7@ecti+e# %"ul$ e(ai! &" the i!te!ati"!al c"((u!it' $e+el"8(e!t a!$ c"u!te:

te"i#(. Neithe %"ul$ a("u!t t" the 7uil$i!4 "& a! A&4ha! #tate " %i!!i!4 a c"u!te:i!#u4e!c' ca(8ai4!. A redution in

troo numers and a turn aaB from state7uiding shoud not mean tota ithdraa& good

roets oud ontinue to e undertaen in eetriitB5 ater5 irrigation5 heath5 eduation5

agriuture5 rura deeoment a!$ i! "the aea# &a+"ue$ 7' $e+el"8(e!t a4e!cie#. Een a ight US resene

oud ontinue to ao for aggressie oerations against A ;aeda terrorists5 in Afghanistan , %h"8la! t" attac the U!ite$ State#. The US ha# #ucce##&ull' 8e+e!t Al ;ae$a &"( e:e#ta7li#hi!4 it#el& #i!ce 2001 /th"u4h the e#ult ha#"!l' 7ee! t" ("+e 7i! La$e! ac"## the 7"$e.. The US (ilita' c"ul$ al#" /%ith "the &"(# "& a##i#ta!ce #u88"t the A&4ha! (ilita't" 8e+e!t the Tali7a! &"( #ei


44/48


222Confating ounterterrorism and ounterinsurgenB = faiure> an soes

$oBe 6 01"1[Michael J., Lectue i! I!te!ati"!al Relati"!# a!$ a Re#each Fell"% at the Ce!te &" the Stu$' "& Te"i#( a!$ )"litical*i"le!ce at the U!i+e#it' "& St A!$e%#, I!te!ati"!al A&&ai# - 2 /2010 3 D" c"u!tete"i#( a!$c"u!tei!#u4e!c' 4" t"4ethe56

At the 8"litical le+el, h"%e+e, the effets of the onfation of ounterterrorism and ounterinsurgenB

are8eha8# ("e serious. O!e "& the u!&"tu!ate 7':8"$uct# "& the e98eie!ce "& the la#t ei4ht 'ea#, %hich ha# #ee! t%"(a@" !ati"!al i!#u4e!cie# c"!$ucte$ c"!cue!tl' %ith a 4l"7al #tu44le a4ai!#t Al:;ae$a, i# that 8"lic':(ae# ha+e7e4u! t" c"!clu$e /a# Mili7a!$ $i$ that c"u!tete"i#( i# c"u!tei!#u4e!c'. The $a!4e# "& #uch a 8"#iti"! ae (a!i&e#t.

To treat eerB terrorist threat through the ens of ounterinsurgenB is to ommit the US to

undertaing ountess state7uiding missions aroad5 often ith imited rosets of suess. To

treat eerB insurgenB as the otentia inuator of a future terrorist threat is a reie for

oerextension5 distration and exhaustion. The strugge ith A7;aeda an e on onB if the US

ees sight of its riorities and aoids entanging itsef in an eer7inreasing numer of distant

onfits! $ut it i ertainB e ost if the US exhausts itsefLfinaniaB5 miitariB5 een moraBLB foreer sanning the horion for ne monsters to destroB.

**


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222Counterterrorism soes faiures of ounterinsurgenB

Neson 6 011//Ric, &"(e $iect" "& a J"i!t Ta# F"ce i! #u88"t "& O8eati"! E!$ui!4 Fee$"(, etie$ !a+al "&&ice %itha##i4!(e!t# at the Nati"!al C"u!tete"i#( Ce!te a!$ Nati"!al Secuit' C"u!cil, a!$ Se!i" Fell"% at the I!te!ati"!alSecuit' )"4a( at the Ce!te &" State4ic a!$ I!te!ati"!al Stu$ie# , The Othe Si$e "& the COIN, 101,htt8c#i#."48u7licati"!"the:#i$e:c"i!

;0& So ho shoud the United States aroah the arV

A0&e !ee$ t" e&a(e "u thi!i!4 a7"ut U.S. 4"al# a!$ the (ea!# t" achie+e the(. A# "utli!e$ a7"+e, COIN i!

A&4ha!i#ta! i# "!l' te!u"u#l' li!e$ t" c"u!tete"i#(, the "i4i!al 8u8"#e "& "u e&&"t#. The Oama

administration shoud imement a more minimaist oiB in the region5 one that emoBs seia

oerations fores and airstries to diretB target terrorists5 eseiaB eaders of es.Citic# cha4e that the#e "8eati"!# ae (ee tactical #ucce##e#, $etache$ &"( a!' la4e #tate4'. Thi# i# a $i#i!4e!u"u#

a##e##(e!t. Targeted stries do5 in fat5 sere the greater strategi urose of disruting the

anning and exeution of terrorist attas! Unie COIN?hih seems to haror the grandiose

notion of eiminating terrorism B transforming soieties, e4a$le## "& c"#t?ounterterrorismanoedges that radiaism i aaBs exist and that oiBmaers shoud diretB see to

ontain it!At the c"e "& thi# #hi&t i# a! ac!"%le$4(e!t that "u 7e#t A&4ha!i#ta! 8"lic' i# !" 7ette tha! "u 7e#t )ai#ta! 8"lic'.ISAF a!$ A&4ha! &"ce# ca! $" e+e'thi!4 i(a4i!a7le t" eli(i!ate Tali7a! i!&lue!ce i! the c"u!t', 7ut a!' e&&"t that $"e#!"t a$$e## the 8e#e!ce "& (ilita!t# i! )ai#ta!# #e(i:4"+e!e$ #8ace# ulti(atel' $"e# little t" e$uce the theat 8"#e$ 7' al;ae$a. At a ("#t 7a#ic le+el, the O7a(a a$(i!i#tati"! (u#t cha!4e the calculu# "& the )ai#ta!i (ilita' a!$ I!te:Se+ice#I!telli4e!ce /ISI %ith e4a$ t" e9te(i#t# i! the c"u!t'# !"th%e#t. D"i!4 #" %ill &"ce the U!ite$ State# t" 8la' a ce!tal"le i! a88"che(e!t 7et%ee! )ai#ta! a!$ I!$ia?a!$ 7e a &ai 7"e t" 7"th 8atie#.hat a7"ut A&4ha!i#ta!5 )"8"!e!t# "& a! all:i! a88"ach te!$ t" (i#e8e#e!t a (i!i(ali#t #tate4' a# c"(8lete%ith$a%al, a4ui!4 that the U!ite$ State# a7a!$"!e$ A&4ha!i#ta! a&te the S"+iet %a a!$ that $"i!4 #" a4ai! %"ul$ 8lu!4ethe c"u!t' i!t" a!ach'. ut &e% #ei"u# a!al'#t# ae tali!4 a7"ut a7a!$"!i!4 A&4ha!i#ta!, a!$ thee i# !" ea#"! t"7elie+e that a #(alle, ("e #8eciali


46/48


222The an8s reetion of ounterinsurgenB reates a dotrina shift toards seetie

engagement that an sustain US resene goaB

Genter 6 011/

[Cele#te Se!i" De&e!#e A!al'#t at the RAND C"8"ati"! a!$ a &"(e $e8ut' a##i#ta!t #eceta' "& $e&e!#e. She #e+e$t%" t"u# i! Ia=, i!clu$i!4 a 'ea a# a #e!i" a$+i#e t" e!eal )ete Chiaelli, the "8eati"!al c"((a!$e i! Ia= i! 200-,Fal#e )"(i#e "& GC"u!tei!#u4e!c'G, 121, htt8%%%.a!$."4c"((e!ta'2001201NT.ht(l6

An effort to ondut ounterinsurgenB in Afghanistan is!"t @u#t a c"#tl' 7u#i!e## &" #till:u!#8eci&ie$

#tate4ic etu!#. It i#ieB toal#"roong the U!S! defense estaishments reouation ithmiitarB7ed nation7uiding in unfamiiar utures and eretuate the deeB roemati

assumtion that hroni soieta faiure and soia athoogies around the ord are a form of

arfare. Thi# !"ti"! i# 7uilt i! 8at "! %hat #ee(# t" 7e a! "+e#i(8li&ie$ a!$ 4la("i


47/48


222 Afghanistan CounterinsurgenB fais& ?+ reasons@ a of fores5 orrution5 ouation

rotetion5 ui suort5 a of fous on ounterterrorism

Neson 6 011/

/Ric, &"(e $iect" "& a J"i!t Ta# F"ce i! #u88"t "& O8eati"! E!$ui!4 Fee$"(, etie$ !a+al "&&ice %itha##i4!(e!t# at the Nati"!al C"u!tete"i#( Ce!te a!$ Nati"!al Secuit' C"u!cil, a!$ Se!i" Fell"% at the I!te!ati"!alSecuit' )"4a( at the Ce!te &" State4ic a!$ I!te!ati"!al Stu$ie# , The Othe Si$e "& the COIN, 101,htt8c#i#."48u7licati"!"the:#i$e:c"i!

A"&)"7a7l' !"t. CounterinsurgenB dotrine, " COIN, ha# ca8tue$ the heat# a!$ (i!$# "& (a!' i! the D.C.

8"lic' c"((u!it'. U8"! cl"#e i!#8ecti"!, h"%e+e, it 7ec"(e# clea that COIN, at lea#t a# aied to Afghanistan, isuit on a numer of shaB assumtions. C"!#i$e

1. E+e! i& e!eal McCh'#tal 4et# all 0,000 t""8# he ha# e=ue#te$, the omined I!te!ati"!al Secuit'A##i#ta!ce F"ce /ISAF, O8eati"! E!$ui!4 Fee$"( /OEF@5 and Afghan ontingent%"ul$ sti numeress than 0+15111?far feer than the 9-15111 troos the U!S! ArmB8s on CounterinsurgenBFied Manua suggests is neessarB to seure a state of Afghanistan8s sie!

2. 4idesread orrution i! the Au4u#t 20 electi"! has idened the trust ga eteen the ,araigoernment and the Afghan eoe. ecau#e suessfu ounterinsurgenB reJuires a goernmentthat is redie and resonsie to its itiens5 these deeoments threaten to derai the U!S! a!$

NATO mission. A!$ a# "u e98eie!ce i! S"uth *iet!a( (a$e 8ai!&ull' clea, the hite H"u#e i# u#uall' 8"%ele## t"&"ce a!' h"#t !ati"! t" e!act 4""$:4"+e!(e!t e&"(#.

. e!eal McCh'#tal# #tate4ic e+ie% e(8ha#i


48/48


222The ithdraa deadine maes ounterinsurgenB imossie

Thiessen 6 01"1/Mac, +i#iti!4 &ell"% at the A(eica! E!te8i#e I!#titute, )e#i$e!t O7a(aG# Deti(e!tal Dea$li!e#,

a#hi!4t"! )"#t, -2, htt8%%%.aei."4aticle1022

The deadinei# ("e tha! a tactical e" it is a strategi misauation that undermines amost eerB

eement of our efforts in Afghanistan. A ithdraa date undermines the erB remise of a

ounterinsurgenB strategB :: that 7' 8"tecti!4 the 8"8ulati"!, '"u ca! ea! thei tu#t a!$ 4et the( t" hel8 '"u ""t

"ut the te"i#t# a!$ i!#u4e!t# . A# c" lu(!i#t Chale# >autha((e ha# e98lai!e$, Afghans i not ris oining us

in the fight if theB thin Ameria i soon e eaing them to the merB of the Taian.

The $a(a4e 4"e# e+e! $ee8e tha! that. The stated urose of the deadine is to ut ressure on A&4ha!

)e#i$e!t Ha(i$ ,arai to eiminate orrution a!$ i!cea#e the le4iti(ac' a!$ e&&ecti+e!e## "& the A&4ha!

4"+e!(e!t. Instead5 it has had the oosite effet77reating a ererse inentie for ,arai to mae

oertures to the Taian5 and ut deas to staB in oer5 so that he an oer his ets hen the

Amerians eae!

The deadine is aso eaening our oaition!It i# ha$ e!"u4h t" 4et NATO c"u!tie# t" c"u4h u8 t""8#, 7ut

hen our NATO aies eiee that Ameria is aing its ags5 theB start aing as e. Ca!a$aha# a!!"u!ce$ it# (i##i"! %ill e!$ i! 2011. I! Fe7ua', the Dutch a!!"u!ce$ the' %ill %ith$a% 7' thi# Dece(7e. A!$la#t %ee, )"la!$ $eclae$ that all it# t""8# %ill 7e lea+e 7' 2012 7ecau#e, a# the hea$ "& )"la!$G# Nati"!al Secuit' ueau8ut it, A&4ha!i#ta! i# hea$i!4 t"%a$ a K#tate4ic cata#t"8heK a!$ )"la!$ !ee$e$ t" K#ee a %a' "ut "& thi# #ituati"!.KO7a(a ca! ha$l' 8u#h 7ac "! NATO allie# t" #ta' i& A(eica i# !"t c"((itte$ t" #ta'i!4 it#el&.The $ea$li!e al#" #e!$# the %"!4 (e##a4e t" )ai#ta!. Ele(e!t# "& )ai#ta!i i!telli4e!ce ha+e l"!4 (ai!tai!e$ =uiet tie#%ith the Tali7a! a!$ "the @iha$i#t 4"u8#, u#i!4 the#e (ilita!t# t" $e#ta7ili

Documents

Afghanistan Counter Terrorism Affirmative