Afghanistan Counter Terrorism Affirmative

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    HUDL 2010 SUMMER INSTITUTECOTE AFF

    Afghanistan Counterterrorism Index

    AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM INDE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! !! "

    AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #

    O$SER%ATION I& INHERENC'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#

    THE()AN& !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*

    AD%ANTAGE I& AFGHANISTANSTA$I)IT'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!+

    AD%ANTAGE II& (A,ISTAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#

    O$SER%ATION II& SO)%ENC'

    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"-

    .....AFGHANISTAN STA$I)IT' AD%ANTAGE ETENSIONS..... !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!! "/

    ...GOOD GO%ERNANCE...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!01222,AR3AI4ANTSTONEGOTIATE4ITHTHETA)I$AN5 $UTISINHI$ITED$'THEUS 6 4ITHDRA4A)

    4OU)D(ROM(TTHETA)I$ANTOENGAGEANDSIGNA)AGO7AHEADTO,AR3AI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!01

    222US (RESENCEUNDERMINES,AR3AI8S)EGITIMAC' !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0"

    222US (RESENCEGUTS,AR3AI8SDOMESTICCREDI$I)IT'6 TROO(SARE(ERCEI%EDASO%ERSTA'ING

    THEIR4E)COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0"

    222INDE(ENDENT,AR3AI,E'TOCREDI$I)IT'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!00

    ...IM(ACT ETENSIONS...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0#

    222MIDD)EEAST4ARGOESNUC)EAR& ISRAE)STRI,E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0#

    222MIDD)EEASTINSTA$I)IT'CREATESSANCTUARIESFORTERRORISTANDDESTRO'THEG)O$A)

    ECONOM'! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0*

    222G)O$A)ECONOMICCO))A(SERIS,SETINCTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0*

    222AFGHANINSTA$I)IT'S(I))O%ERINTOIRAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0+222IRANCONF)ICTRESU)TSINNUC)EAR4AR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0+

    .....(A,ISTAN AD%ANTAGE ETENSIONS..... !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! 09

    222COUNTERINSURGENC'FAI)INGNO4& MAR:AH! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0-

    222NOUNI;UENESSTOTHETURNS& COUNTER7INSURGENC'ISDOOMEDTOFAI)UREANDISU)TIMATE)'

    UNNECESSAR'FORSUCCESSFU)COUNTER7TERRORISM! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0aaaa

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    HUDL 2010 SUMMER INSTITUTECOTE AFF

    AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM "AC

    A ounter7terrorism strategB in Afghanistan oud onB reJuire 015111 troos5 a redution of

    -15111 from urrent troo ees!

    Steart 6 011/[R"', #e+e$ 7ie&l' a# a! "&&ice i! the iti#h A(' /the lac atch, I! 200, he 7eca(e the c"aliti"! De8ut' "+e!""& Ma'#a! a!$ Dhi ;a :: t%" 8"+i!ce# i! the Ma#h Aa7 e4i"! "& S"uthe! Ia=. L"!$"! Re+ie% "& ""# *"l. 1 N".1 V Jul' 200 The Ie#i#ti7le Illu#i"! htt8%%%.l7.c".u+1!1"':#te%atthe:ie#i#ti7le:illu#i"!

    A&te #e+e! 'ea# "& e&i!e(e!t, the 8"lic' #ee(# #" 7u"'e$ 7' illu#i"!#, caule$ i! a(7i4u"u# la!4ua4e a!$ e!cu#te$ %ith("al clai(#, a!al"4ie# a!$ 8"litical the"ie# that it ca! #ee( &utile t" 8e#e!t a! alte!ati+e. It i# 8aticulal' $i&&icult t"

    a4ue !"t &" a t"tal %ith$a%al 7ut &" a ("e cauti"u# a88"ach. The est Afghan oiB oud e to redue the

    numer of foreign troos from the urrent ee of /15111 to&a &e%e 8eha8# 015111. I! that ca#e, to

    distint oeties oud remain&" the i!te!ati"!al c"((u!it'& deeoment and ounter7terrorism.Neithe %"ul$ a("u!t t" the 7uil$i!4 "& a! A&4ha! #tate. I& the e#t 7elie+e$ it e##e!tial t" e9clu$e al:;ai$a &"(A&4ha!i#ta!, the! the' c"ul$ $" it %ith #8ecial &"ce#. /The' ha+e $"!e it #ucce##&ull' #i!ce 2001 a!$ c"ul$ c"!ti!uei!$e&i!itel', th"u4h the e#ult ha# "!l' 7ee! t" ("+e 7i! La$e! ac"## the 7"$e. At the #a(e ti(e the e#t #h"ul$ 8"+i$e

    4e!e"u# $e+el"8(e!t a##i#ta!ce !"t "!l' t" ee8 c"!#e!t &" the c"u!te:te"i#( "8eati"!#, 7ut a# a! e!$ i! it#el&.A redution in troo numers and a turn aaB from state7uiding shoud not mean tota

    ithdraa& good roets oud ontinue to e undertaen in eetriitB5 ater5 irrigation5 heath5

    eduation5 agriuture5 rura deeoment and in other areas&a+"ue$ 7' $e+el"8(e!t a4e!cie#. e #h"ul$!"t c"!t"l a!$ ca!!"t 8e$ict the &utue "& A&4ha!i#ta!. It (a' i! the &utue 7ec"(e ("e +i"le!t, " &i!$ a $ece!tali#e$

    e=uili7iu( " a !e% !ati"!al u!it', 7ut i& it# c"((u!itie# c"!ti!ue t" %a!t t" %" %ith u#, e an, "+e 0 'ea#,

    enourage the more ositie trends in Afghan soietB and he to ontain the more negatie!

    "

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    HUDL 2010 SUMMER INSTITUTECOTE AFF

    .....AFGHANISTAN STA$I)IT' AD%ANTAGE ETENSIONS.....

    "/

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    HUDL 2010 SUMMER INSTITUTECOTE AFF

    ...GOOD GO%ERNANCE...

    222,arai ants to negotiate ith the Taian5 ut is inhiited B the US 6 ithdraa oud

    romt the Taian to engage and signa a go7ahead to ,arai

    (orter 7 01"1[aeth, i!+e#ti4ati+e hi#t"ia! a!$ @"u!ali#t #8ecialia

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    HUDL 2010 SUMMER INSTITUTECOTE AFF

    222US resene undermines ,arai8s egitimaB

    Goodhand Sedra 6 011-[J"!atha! a!$ Ma, U!i+e#it' "& L"!$"!, $e+el"8(e!t #tu$ie# lectue AND "!! Ce!te &" I!te!ati"!al C"!+e#i"!e#each a##"ciate, Fe7ua', 200B, i7e# " a4ai!#5 )eace C"!$iti"!alitie# a!$ G)"#t:C"!&lictG Rec"!#tucti"! i!A&4ha!i#ta!, i!&"(a%"l$6

    H"%e+e, ,arai is not a free agent, and his room for manoeure has een inuened B

    internationa oiies as e as the domesti onsteation of oitia fores . Fi#t, a# Ru7i! a4ue#, thee%a# !" (echa!i#( t" c""$i!ate 8"litical(ea#ue# %ith the 7e!ch(a# &" the #ecuit' a!$ #"ci":ec"!"(ic ta!#iti"!#.F"( the "ut#et, i!te!ati"!al 8"licie# i! the #ecuit' #8hee, !"ta7l' US ar onditionaities, undermined the

    soe for ,arai to marginaie regiona strongmen. The autonomB of US fores and their a ofaountaiitB to the Afghan authorities highight the ereied eaness of the ,arai regime5

    undermining his egitimaB. A# A#ti Suhe !"te#, hen the ,arai goernment aears to e so

    deendent on its aB and unae to inuene its ehaiour5 otentia suorters maB auate

    that it is not safe to thro in their ot ith the ne administration! 1Thi# ha# e#ulte$ i! the c"!ti!uati"!"& Wui$ 8"litical aa!4e(e!t#, tai!4 the &"( "& P#8"t c"!tact# " he$4i!4 athe tha! l"!4:te( ai$:&":8eace 7a4ai!#.222US resene guts ,arai8s domesti rediiitB 6 troos are ereied as oerstaBing their

    eome

    3ahir 6 011/

    [Mi

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    HUDL 2010 SUMMER INSTITUTECOTE AFF

    222Indeendent ,arai eB to rediiitB

    Rosenerg Siege 6 01"1[Matthe% Q )ete, #ta&& e8"te#, The all Steet J"u!al /21-10, U.S. et# e#t All' i! Su4e i# Ol$ O!e,htt8"!li!e.%#@.c"(aticleS100012032BB013003B30B3302030-.ht(l

    $B giing Mr! ,arai resonsiiitB oer eB eements of the amaign5 4estern offiias are

    hoing he i seie the attefied adantage gien to him B the arria of thousands of fresh

    Amerian troos and turn it into a hane to re7estaish his goernmentsLand his onL

    rediiitB!

    $esides eing gien the ast ord on the Marah offensie5 Mr! ,arai has een riefed reeatedB

    on the atte ans5 meeting freJuentB ith e!. MChrBsta and seaing often ith senior

    offiias from 4ashington, i!clu$i!4 Nati"!al Secuit' A$+i#e Ja(e# J"!e#, acc"$i!4 t" A&4ha! a!$ U.S. "&&icial#.

    K4e ant to mae him on this! 4hat e need is to mae him into a 4inston Churhi ho an

    raB his eoe5#ai$ "!e 8e#"! i!+"l+e$ i! the e&&"t. M. >a

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    HUDL 2010 SUMMER INSTITUTECOTE AFF

    ...IM(ACT ETENSIONS...222Midde East 4ar goes nuear& Israe strie!

    GaffneB 6 011#/Ma, a e#eache, %ite, 8"et, e!+i"!(e!tali#t, a!ti:!uclea acti+i#t ill Ia! 7e !e9t5 Alte!ati+e# Tui#h J"u!al "&INte!ati"!al A&&ai#, Su((e *"l 2,%%%.alte!ati+e#@"u!al.!et+"lu(e2!u(7e24a&&!e'.8$&

    It is erB ossie::#"(e %"ul$ #a' 8"7a7le::that the U!S!58"##i7l' in onuntion ith Israe, i aunh

    a reentie raid and destroB the $ushehr reator efore it goes on ine. Such a ai$ %"ul$ 7e &ate&ul

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