Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective

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Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective. May 24, 2006 Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO. Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East Asia Political & Security Dimension. 1) April 13Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism? 2) April 20Regionalism & Regional Integration - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Regional PerspectiveMay 24, 2006Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO

  • Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East AsiaPolitical & Security Dimension1) April 13Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism?

    2) April 20Regionalism & Regional Integration

    3) April 27Regionalism in Asia

    4) May 11East Asian Community and East Asian Summit

    5) May 18New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

    6) May 24Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Regional Perspective

  • Review 1) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia (2001-Present)Strategic Circumstances

    US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia

    Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated

    Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation

    Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

  • Review 2) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

    Members

    FunctionsInclusive / RegionalGeographical CooperationExclusive / FunctionalRegional Security ComplexForcefulCompetitive(Deterrence/Response)(Collective Security) Japan-US Alliance

    Korea-US AllianceUnforcefulCooperativeCBM / PDShanghai Cooperation Organization

    ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)Shangri-la DialogueProliferation Security Initiative

    Anti-Terrorism Cooperation

    Non-Traditional Security

  • Terrorism as a National Security ThreatSeptember 11, 2001World Trade Center Bldg.NYCDepartment of Defense (Washington DC)

    More than 3000 had diedDefinition of WarMore than 1000 dead in a conbatRhetric of War against Terror

  • The New Age of TerrorismNew Trends of TerrorismTerrorism has become bloodier.Terrorist have developed new financial resources, so that they are less dependent on state sponsors.Terrorists have evolved new model of organization.Terrorists can now wage global campaigns.Terrorists have effectively exploited new communications technologies.Some terrorists have moved beyond tactics to strategy, although none of them have achieved their stated long range goals.

    Brian Jenkins, The New Age of Terrorism (RAND, 2006)

  • Terrorism has become bloodier Death Event Suspect3000+ NYC/Washington DC (2001)Al-Qaeda477 Iran Avadan Arson (1979)Anti-Govt Group412 Massacre in Algeria (1997)GIA270 Pan-Am 103 Bombing (1988)Libya241 Beirut US Marine Corp (1983) Islamic Front223 Kenya / Tanzania (1998)Al-Qaeda168 Oklahoma Bldg (1995)Mcbay&Nichols115 Korean Air Bombing (1987)North Korea

    Casualty5500 Aum Salin Gas Attack (1995)Aum-Shinrikyo4000 Kenya / Tanzania (1998)Al-Qaeda

  • Spatial Analysis of 9-11 AttackSudanterrorist cells/trainingAfghanistan (HQ/training/financing)Saudi ArabiafinancingIndonesia/Philippinesterrorist cells/trainingRussia (weapons)Pakistan(terrorist cells)Europe(recruiting)USterrorist cells/training

  • Terrorist Organizations (Al-Qaeda)= Terrorist CellHub CellSupporterSleeper Cell

  • Patterns of TerrorismUS PerspectiveWorld Trade Center Bombing (1993)9.11 terrorismAnthrax (2001)Kenya/Tanzania US Embassy Bombing (1998)Aum Shinrikyo Salin Gas Attack (1996)

  • Typology of International TerrorismTerritory-oriented TerrorismEurope / Middle EastPalestine (PLA) / Northern Ireland / Bask / KosovoAsiaSri Lanka / Kashmir / Ache / MILF

    Ideal-oriented TerrorismPolitical TerrorismFar Left / Far Right / AnarchistReligious TerrorismIslamic Fundamentalist / Christian FundamentalistReligious CultsSocial Issue-oriented TerrorismAnti-abortion / Animal Protection / Environmental PreservationPersonal Delusion TerrorismUnabomber

  • Categorization of Counter-TerrorismSource: Naofumi Miyasaka (2004)

    Indigenous MeasuresCooperation with Allies and FriendsRegional CooperationGlobal CooperationTerrorist OrganizationSurrounding EnvironmentPreventionInformation AnalysisInvestigationBorder ControlIntelligence SharingCapacity BuildingRecommendationEvaluationAssesmentIntelligenceConsequence ManagementAnti-terrorism Exerciseurban-suburban coordinationCooperation in case of emergencyJoint SeminarAnti-Terrorism and PolicingInvestigationTrialSubduementCooperation on Investigation, Justice, MilitaryInformation SharingJoint ActionInformation SharingFact FindingIV.New MeasuresLessons LearnedNew PactNew ConceptNew TreatyNorm Creation

  • US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism(1) Patterns of Global Terrorism (-2003)Patterns of Global TerrorismOfficially recognizing more than 30 terrorist organizations

    Four Policy Principles on Counter Terrorismmake no concessions to terrorists and strike no dealsbring terrorists to justice to their crimesisolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor terrorism to force them to change their behaviorBolster the counterterrorist capabilities of those countries that work with the US and require assistance

    US State Department Patterns of Global Terrorism (2003)

  • US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism (2) US Strategy for Combating Terrorism (2003)

  • Terrorist Organizations in Asia (1)cf Patterns of Global Terrorism (2003)Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)-MindanaoMoro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-MindanaoKumplan Mujahideen Malaysia (KMM)-MalaysiaPattani United Liberation Organization (PULO) Yousif Longpi-IndonesiaJemaah Islamiah (JI) - Riduan Isamuddin: Ties to Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Zacarias Moussaoui, Khalid al-Mihdar, Nawaf al-Hazmi-2000 Al Qaeda Summit in Kuala LumpurAbu-Sayyaf Group (ASG) - PhilippinesTamil Tigers - Phuket, ThailandSri Lankan Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)These organizations are all related through their shared ideology of radical Islamic nationalism revolving around the preservation of Islamic culture in response to real and perceived aggression.

  • Islamic Jihad Group -Throughout Central Asia & South AsiaJapanese Red Army - JapanEast Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) - Western Xinjiang province/ChinaCambodian Freedom Fighters - Cambodia & U.S.Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) - PhilippinesCommunist Party of Philippines / New Peoples ArmyAUM Shinrikyo (AUM) - Japan & RussiaAbu Nidal Organization (ANO)-Asia, Middle East and Europe

    Terrorist Organizations in Asia (2)

  • Southeast Asia as Terrorist BedAreas with Major Islamic PopulationMiddle East19.5% (238,000,000)Indonesia 17% (200,000,000) South Asia 25% (300,000,000)Africa 20% (240,000,000) Turkey 10% (125,000,000)

    Characteristic of Southeast Asias ExtremistsMuslim Youth MovementDiffused Centralized Command & ControlExternal Support and RecruitmentEarly Stages of Organizational DevelopmentGaining Momentum in Technics and Efficiency (eg Bali Bombing)

  • Regional Cooperation in Asia on Combating TerrorismAPECAPEC Action Plan for Combating the Financing of Terrorism (2002)APEC Counter Terrorism Action Plans (2003)Counter-Terrorism Task Force (2003)Fund for Regional Trade and Security Initiative (2004)

    ARFStatement on Measures Against Terrorist Financing (2002)Statement on Cooperative counter-terrorist action on border security (2003)Statement Strengthening Transport Security Against International Terrorism (2004) Statement on Sharing and Intelligence Exchange and Document Integrity and Security in Enhancing Cooperation to Combat Terrorism and Other Transnational Crimes(2005)

    ASEAN+3Joint Statement (2001-2005)

  • Bilateral and Ad-hoc Cooperationon Combating TerrorismRegional GroupingsBali ProcessBali Regional Ministerial Meeting on Counter-Terrorism (2004)Legal Issue Working GroupSoutheast Asia Center for Counter-TerrorismMalaysia

    Bilateral CooperationJapan-(ROK, Australia, Russia, EU) Among ASEAN Member StatesAustralia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand)

    Ad-hoc (functional) CooperationProliferation Security Initiative (PSI): Japan, Australia, SingaporeContainer Security Initiative (CSI) : Japan, China, Singapore, Malaysia Taiwan

  • Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism Economic Sphere Security Sphere

    Global Framework GATT / IMF UN / Multinational

    Mega-Regionalism APEC ARF / OSCE

    Regionalism EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN

    Coalition Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism

    Bilateralism Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance