Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Analog Forecasting Objectively Picking Analogs Tools

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Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Analog Forecasting Objectively Picking Analogs Tools for Interpretation The Forecast Future Developments Slide 2 Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far Slide 3 Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far Look for past years that are similar to this year Look at this year so far Look for past years that are similar to this year Slide 4 Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far Look for past years that are similar to this year Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year. Look at this year so far Look for past years that are similar to this year Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year. Slide 5 Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far Look for past years that are similar to this year Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year. Look at this year so far Look for past years that are similar to this year Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year. Slide 6 Slide 7 Southern Oscillation Index Pacific Decadal Oscillation Multivariate ENSO Index PNA Nino 3.4 Sahel Rainfall Slide 8 Climate Indices PNA (Pacific North American Index) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Jones NAO EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) TNH ONI NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index) CAR (Caribbean Index) MEI BEST Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Nino 3+4 Nino 4 Pacific Warm Pool Tropical Pacific SST EOF TNA TSA WHWP WP (West Pacific Index) QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) NP (North Pacific Index) PNA (Pacific North American Index) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Jones NAO EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) TNH ONI NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index) CAR (Caribbean Index) MEI BEST Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Nino 3+4 Nino 4 Pacific Warm Pool Tropical Pacific SST EOF TNA TSA WHWP WP (West Pacific Index) QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) NP (North Pacific Index) NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular momentum NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular momentum Slide 9 Slide 10 Slide 11 Slide 12 Not just the index But sensible weather IE Warm/Cool Wet/Dry Not just the index But sensible weather IE Warm/Cool Wet/Dry Slide 13 Automate the Process Compare each previous year to this year Compute a Goodness of Fit number Sort Goodness of Fit Print/Save results Do this for multiple indices Find Consensus analog years Slide 14 Slide 15 Slide 16 Slide 17 Slide 18 Slide 19 Slide 20 Slide 21 Slide 22 Slide 23 Slide 24 Slide 25 Slide 26 Slide 27 Slide 28 Objective Forecast Slide 29 The Indices: MEI CPC SOI BOM SOI ONI NINO3 TEMPS MEI CPC SOI BOM SOI ONI NINO3 TEMPS NINO4 TEMPS PNA PDO WP NINO4 TEMPS PNA PDO WP Objective Forecast Slide 30 Slide 31 Slide 32 Slide 33 Slide 34 Analog Composites Slide 35 Slide 36 Slide 37 Slide 38 Slide 39 Slide 40 Slide 41 Slide 42 Slide 43 Slide 44 Slide 45 Slide 46 Slide 47 Slide 48 Slide 49 Slide 50 Slide 51 Slide 52 Slide 53 November Temperature Precipitation Slide 54 December Temperature Precipitation Slide 55 January Temperature Precipitation Slide 56 February Temperature Precipitation Slide 57 March Temperature Precipitation Slide 58 April Temperature Precipitation Slide 59 Slide 60 Highs Lows Slide 61 Period of Record Average Analog Average Slide 62 Slide 63 Slide 64 Slide 65 Slide 66 Slide 67 Slide 68 32F = 273.15K Slide 69 Slide 70 Slide 71 Slide 72 Wind storm 9 th, 10 th or 11 th ? Mild Thanksgiving 30dm 500H anomaly over Pacific Northwest Wind storm 9 th, 10 th or 11 th ? Mild Thanksgiving 30dm 500H anomaly over Pacific Northwest Slide 73 Slide 74 Flirt w/cold air ~12 th -14 th Cold 20 th -29 th Possible Arctic Event(s)? Positive 500H anomaly ~ 800 west of Oregon Flirt w/cold air ~12 th -14 th Cold 20 th -29 th Possible Arctic Event(s)? Positive 500H anomaly ~ 800 west of Oregon Slide 75 Slide 76 Warm 2 nd -8 th (Early January Thaw?) Arctic event toward end of month? 500H/850T significant negative anomaly Warm 2 nd -8 th (Early January Thaw?) Arctic event toward end of month? 500H/850T significant negative anomaly Slide 77 Slide 78 Cool Month Valentines Day Snow? 30dm 500H negative anomaly Cool Month Valentines Day Snow? 30dm 500H negative anomaly Slide 79 Slide 80 Wind Event 17 th, 18 th or 19th? 500H anomaly positive/850T anomaly negative Wind Event 17 th, 18 th or 19th? 500H anomaly positive/850T anomaly negative Slide 81 Slide 82 Active month. Wide swings in temperatures but averages out cool. Active month. Wide swings in temperatures but averages out cool. Slide 83 Government Camp Snow Slide 84 2008: 4 th and 5 th 16 inches totalgone by 11 th. 2000: Snow on 6 th, snow again on 8 th and continuous snow cover through the end of the month. 1999: 21 st and 22 nd eight inches totalall melted by 27 th. 1989: Six inches on 13 th 24 th -27 th twenty-eight inches. 1974: 18 th through 27 th seventeen inches total. 1971: Twenty-one inches on ground to start month snowed fourty-seven inches during month. Government Camp Snow November Slide 85 Good Great! Good Great! 2008: 4 th and 5 th 16 inches totalgone by 11 th. 2000: Snow on 6 th, snow again on 8 th and continuous snow cover through the end of the month. 1999: 21 st and 22 nd eight inches totalall melted by 27 th. 1989: Six inches on 13 th 24 th -27 th twenty-eight inches. 1974: 18 th through 27 th seventeen inches total. 1971: Twenty-one inches on ground to start month snowed fourty-seven inches during month. Bad Marginal Good Bad Marginal Good Government Camp Snow November Slide 86 23d24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st 2008 636172 7169596155 2000 44 48 444240 36 1999 1098888888 1989 11T001TT0 1974 27 2830 3534 1971 697368 6664687472 Government Camp Snow December Snow Depth in Inches Slide 87 23d24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st 2008 636172 7169596155 2000 44 48 444240 36 1999 1098888888 1989 11T001TT0 1974 27 2830 3534 1971 697368 6664687472 Government Camp Snow December Snow Depth in Inches Slide 88 23d24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st 2008 636172 7169596155 2000 44 48 444240 36 1999 1098888888 1989 11T001TT0 1974 27 2830 3534 1971 697368 6664687472 Government Camp Snow December Snow Depth in Inches OK Bummer Dude Slide 89 Further Development Slide 90 More indices Slide 91 Further Development More indices Write routine(s) to produce and verify historical forecasts Slide 92 Further Development More indices Write routine(s) to produce and verify historical forecasts Index/time period weighting Slide 93 Forecast Summary/Questions Climate Division 2 Willamette Valley Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Temp: Precip: Above Near Near Below Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Near jlittle@odf.state.or.us jim@mail.wxnorthwest.com