Crop yield predictions using seasonal climate forecasts

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Crop yield predictions using seasonal climate forecasts. SIMONE SIEVERT DA COSTA DSA/CPTEC/INPE simone.sievert@cptec.inpe.br Second EUROBRISA Workshop July 2009 – Dartmoor, Devon- UK. Aim. Investigate the potential of using seasonal climate forecasts for producing maize yield predictions. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of Crop yield predictions using seasonal climate forecasts

  • Crop yield predictions using seasonal climate forecastsSIMONE SIEVERT DA COSTADSA/CPTEC/INPE simone.sievert@cptec.inpe.br

    Second EUROBRISA Workshop July 2009 Dartmoor, Devon- UK

  • AimInvestigate the potential of using seasonal climate forecasts for producing maize yield predictionsCrop yield modelClimate ForecastNational StatisticsMaize Grain YieldSource: IBGE

    Grf2

    2354.045045045

    1178.5255255255

    2618.051051051

    2603.8665105386

    2661.7822014052

    2976.8360655738

    2097.0046948357

    2440.6659482759

    2785.6365591398

    2334.9032258064

    2513.6215053763

    3367.4828282828

    2698.3042596349

    3598.3569979716

    2721.4297352342

    1531.63599182

    year

    maize grain yield (kg ha-1)

    Plan1

    19902354

    19911179

    19922618

    19932604

    19942662

    19952977

    19962097

    19972441

    19982786

    19992335

    20002514

    20013367

    20022698

    20033598

    20042721

    20051532

    Plan1

    year

    maize grain yield (kg ha-1)

    Plan2

    Plan3

  • The Study AreaRio Grande Do Sul State (RS) Long River of South27.2- 29.8S/51.2- 56.0W

  • About Maize in RSAfter USA and China, Brazil is the main maize producer in the entire world, and RS is the second greatest producer in Brazil (IBGE, 2006). Sowing Date: Sep/OctHarvest: Feb/MarchCrop cycle ~130 days

  • SOIL WATER

    TRANSPIRATION

    BIOMASS

    LEAF CANOPY

    ROOT SYSTEM

    Water Stress

    Transpiration Efficiency

    YIELD

    DevelopmentStage

    Yield is a time varying fraction of Biomass

    OutputsYield GapParameter

    Daily data required:Solar Radiation Min. TemperatureMax. Temperature RainfallSchematic diagram of GLAM (adapted from crop and climate group webpage-Reading)Crop model: General Large Area Model Challinor et al., 2003

  • Calibration GLAM was based on observational data (soil and crop phenology). UFRGS, Eldorado do Sul Site, Brazil.Muller et al., 2005

    IAF1993e94

    0.00750.00890.00630.00580.005

    0.0380.0570.0470.0470.037

    0.1430.1530.130.170.144

    0.380.4510.3080.5260.431

    1.020.940.9410.9080.931

    2.1662.2082.051.9051.86

    3.794.4223.9813.4183.496

    4.824.5074.8924.4855.156

    5.7155.5765.3076.0125.838

    5.7395.415.7134.8975.518

    5.616.015.315.755.38

    5.5415.1685.1753.7064.29

    5.4115.315.5433.8263.943

    5.1764.954.583.5183.75

    4.255.044.694.943.65

    4.4355.9035.0032.7533.01

    4.3984.7585.0064.0313.11

    4.384.623.383.22.94

    2.792.893.342.381.9

    I4

    I3

    I2

    I1

    I0

    odia

    IAF

    IAF em 1993/94

    IAF 1994e95

    0.00530230770.00420.00450.00510.0046

    0.05468743590.060.0510.0530.05

    0.16045205130.1710.1930.1540.154

    0.54450615380.5520.5850.5790.549

    1.41298153851.4331.5371.4491.371

    2.2710256412.6322.4262.0882.14

    3.31051282052.8672.9272.9052.722

    4.72794871794.8454.1893.5274.103

    4.04743589743.6264.7163.63.259

    3.48564102563.6573.4093.1973.216

    4.39743589743.7624.6293.8113.828

    4.00871794874.0084.3094.0844.003

    3.74487179493.5554.1823.9813.629

    4.06769230773.8214.2393.8613.529

    3.80692307693.8113.9553.9163.588

    3.46358974363.7133.7963.9963.322

    I4

    I3

    I2

    I1

    I0

    odia

    IAF

    IAF 1994/95

    IAF 1995e96

    0.180.14

    0.790.68

    0.730.73

    1.381.24

    2.51.71

    3.862.12

    5.072.04

    5.842.79

    5.763.17

    5.323.33

    4.873.64

    5.313.5

    4.673.49

    5.073.67

    4.833

    4.53.07

    2.813.21

    I4

    I0

    odia

    IAF

    IAF 1995/96

    IAF 1996e97

    0.060.0489349466

    0.270.2341629576

    0.650.567715051

    1.561.2735953432

    2.532.3458322858

    4.123.3835241678

    4.964.1210743768

    5.635.1010667072

    5.494.4661149612

    6.034.1751804152

    5.183.4290497772

    4.653.4670233425

    4.683.2773405255

    4.123.570158499

    4.463.780822365

    2.563.295284756

    I4

    I0

    odia

    IAF

    IAF 1996/97

    IAF 1997e98

    0.02782333330.0286450.0291816667

    0.08484216670.09036983330.095215

    0.27076166670.19381166670.2472483333

    0.58919666670.51206666670.452025

    1.96450666671.73060333331.80339

    2.8381027412.91631330132.7243303589

    4.25534957424.35607708334.018419213

    5.04383647264.89760358954.7246271841

    5.16524925335.08736761085.1557721063

    5.1495623085.10203914454.9683019556

    5.64835842785.64468602534.987456911

    5.31953952945.15992543584.5597775757

    4.95554250624.69233516574.4889388707

    4.9674888025.01872796694.7462369779

    4.28999260544.43852185264.3508713956

    4.3088247022.46111650363.4119991403

    1.63665952911.5820077561.2372309695

    I4

    I2

    I0

    odia

    IAF

    IAF 1997/98

    IAF 1998e99

    0.020.0230.02056

    0.30.25927666670.2758183333

    0.480.50945833330.5726166667

    1.10.91331728640.9968536133

    1.961.93998877551.8593201417

    3.122.94683112572.5792843268

    4.143.98065987294.0063899052

    4.44.05777812443.8193383598

    4.894.35201669014.4701488112

    4.974.57643006724.2555975282

    5.844.51599181463.5610338095

    4.895.38523047753.6223526679

    4.444.90769892283.4975544284

    4.383.8520520993.0556885033

    4.323.73919564232.583310628

    1.820.95548116060.7270814128

    I5

    I2

    I0

    odia

    IAF

    IAF 1998/99

    IAF x graus dia

    0.007537.937.937.937.937.9

    0.038127.57127.57127.57127.57127.57

    0.143214.41214.41214.41214.41214.41

    0.38320.71320.71320.71320.71320.71

    1.02405.79405.79405.79405.79405.79

    2.166510.77510.77510.77510.77510.77

    3.79617.73617.73617.73617.73617.73

    4.82718.73718.73718.73718.73718.73

    5.715823.89823.89823.89823.89823.89

    5.739930.79930.79930.79930.79930.79

    5.611027.791027.791027.791027.791027.79

    5.5411141.291141.291141.291141.291141.29

    5.4111252.191252.191252.191252.191252.19

    5.1761375.991375.991375.991375.991375.99

    4.251477.591477.591477.591477.591477.59

    4.4351572.791572.791572.791572.791572.79

    4.3981681.291681.291681.291681.291681.29

    4.381837.491837.491837.491837.491837.49

    2.791992.091992.091992.091992.091992.09

    35.80.005302307735.835.835.835.8

    126.30.0546874359126.3126.3126.3126.3

    212.40.1604520513212.4212.4212.4212.4

    315.80.5445061538315.8315.8315.8315.8

    411.91.4129815385411.9411.9411.9411.9

    5412.271025641541541541541

    654.63.3105128205654.6654.6654.6654.6

    776.74.7279487179776.7776.7776.7776.7

    906.684.0474358974906.68906.68906.68906.68

    1016.053.48564102561016.051016.051016.051016.05

    1132.574.39743589741132.571132.571132.571132.57

    1239.514.00871794871239.511239.511239.511239.51

    1341.653.74487179491341.651341.651341.651341.65

    1446.094.06769230771446.091446.091446.091446.09

    1554.583.80692307691554.581554.581554.581554.58

    1661.673.46358974361661.671661.671661.671661.67

    132.39132.390.18132.39132.39132.39

    227.03227.030.79227.03227.03227.03

    317.62317.620.73317.62317.62317.62

    408.22408.221.38408.22408.22408.22

    521.39521.392.5521.39521.39521.39

    619.51619.513.86619.51619.51619.51

    738.65738.655.07738.65738.65738.65

    854.44854.445.84854.44854.44854.44

    964.96964.965.76964.96964.96964.96

    1072.361072.365.321072.361072.361072.36

    1188.261188.264.871188.261188.261188.26

    1296.961296.965.311296.961296.961296.96

    1404.661404.664.671404.661404.661404.66

    1515.561515.565.071515.561515.561515.56

    1608.761608.764.831608.761608.761608.76

    1725.161725.164.51725.161725.161725.16

    1815.261815.262.811815.261815.261815.26

    128.6128.6128.60.06128.6128.6

    233.1233.1233.10.27233.1233.1

    321.7321.7321.70.65321.7321.7

    434.5434.5434.51.56434.5434.5

    535.9535.9535.92.53535.9535.9

    635.9635.9635.94.12635.9635.9

    763.7763.7763.74.96763.7763.7

    879.8879.8879.85.63879.8879.8

    988.73988.73988.735.49988.73988.73

    1113.361113.361113.366.031113.361113.36

    1231.031231.031231.035.181231.031231.03

    1356.721356.721356.724.651356.721356.72

    1474.831474.831474.834.681474.831474.83

    1590.831590.831590.834.121590.831590.83

    1707.41707.41707.44.461707.41707.4

    1808.591808.591808.592.561808.591808.59

    95.1395.1395.1395.130.027823333395.13

    188.31188.31188.31188.310.0848421667188.31

    280.11280.11280.11280.110.2707616667280.11

    376.04376.04376.04376.040.5891966667376.04

    468.9468.9468.9468.91.9645066667468.9

    580.75580.75580.75580.752.838102741580.75

    686.84686.84686.84686.844.2553495742686.84

    805.11805.11805.11805.115.0438364726805.11

    907.89907.89907.89907.895.1652492533907.89

    997.1997.1997.1997.15.149562308997.1

    1107.391107.391107.391107.395.64835842781107.39

    1225.091225.091225.091225.095.31953952941225.09

    1340.741340.741340.741340.744.95554250621340.74

    1455.431455.431455.431455.434.9674888021455.43

    1552.141552.141552.141552.144.28999260541552.14

    1659.921659.921659.921659.924.3088247021659.92

    1779.751779.751779.751779.751.63665952911779.75

    80.980.980.980.980.90.02

    257.4606060606257.4606060606257.4606060606257.4606060606257.46060606060.3

    297.7522727273297.7522727273297.7522727273297.7522727273297.75227272730.48

    429.8689393939429.8689393939429.8689393939429.8689393939429.86893939391.1

    556.6189393939556.6189393939556.6189393939556.6189393939556.61893939391.96

    674.6406060606674.6406060606674.6406060606674.6406060606674.64060606063.12

    769.5306060606769.5306060606769.5