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Network Challenges in a Low Carbon Future

Jenny Cooper – Transmission R&D, National Grid

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Outline

Background – Electricity Network Uncertainty

Risk Management via Connection and Reinforcement of

the Electricity Network

Operational uncertainties and risk - Managing the system

Conclusions

3

Our Electricity Transmission business - UK

National Grid owns the transmission system (>275kV) in England and Wales

National Grid is the System Operator for entire GB transmission network

4

The only certainty is change

5

The challenge

For the industry

Deliver this future:

Sustainably

Securely

Economically

For National Grid

Connecting generation & reinforcing the network

Operating the system

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6

The main challenge!

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7

Offshore wind penetration

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Scenario Name Slow Progression Gone Green Accelerated Growth

2020 installed offshore wind

9,724MW 16,374MW 32,239MW

2030 installed offshore wind

23,174MW 26,354MW 51,552MW

% renewable electricity generation

21% 32% 43%

2020 target hit Missed Hit Exceeded

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Risk Management via Connection and Reinforcement

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Major System ReinforcementsStrategic Reinforcements

Sizewell

Pembroke

Osbaldwick

RowdownBeddington

ChessingtonWest

Landulph

Abham

Exeter

Axminster

Chickerell

Mannington

Taunton

Alverdiscott

Hinkley Point

Bridgwater

Aberthaw

Cowbridge

Pyle

Margam

SwanseaNorth

CardiffEast

Tremorfa

Alpha SteelUskmouthUpper Boat

Cilfynydd

ImperialPark

Rassau

Whitson

Seabank

Iron Acton

Walham

Melksham

Minety DidcotCulham

Cowley

Bramley

Fleet

Nursling

Fawley Botley Wood

Lovedean

Bolney

Ninfield

Dungeness

Sellindge

Canterbury

E de F

Kemsley

Grain

Kingsnorth

Rayleigh Main

Littlebrook

Tilbury

Warley

Barking

W.HamCity Rd

BrimsdownWaltham

Ealing

Mill HillWillesden

Watford

St Johns

Wimbledon

New Hurst

Elstree

Rye House

N.Hyde

Sundon

Laleham

Iver

Amersham Main

Wymondley

Pelham

Braintree

BurwellMain

Bramford

EatonSocon

Grendon

EastClaydon

Enderby

Walpole

NorwichMain

Coventry

Berkswell

Rugeley

Cellarhead

IronbridgeBushbury

Penn

Willenhall

OckerHill

KitwellOldbury

Bustleholm

NechellsHamsHall

BishopsWood

Feckenham

Legacy

Trawsfynydd

Ffestiniog

Dinorwig

Pentir

Wylfa

Deeside

Capenhurst Frodsham

Fiddlers

Rainhill

KirkbyListerDrive

Birkenhead

WashwayFarm

Penwortham

Carrington

SouthManchester

Daines

Macclesfield

Bredbury

Stalybridge

Rochdale

WhitegateKearsley

Elland

Stocksbridge

WestMelton

Aldwarke

Thurcroft

BrinsworthJordanthorpe

Chesterfield

Sheffield CityNeepsend

Pitsmoor

Templeborough ThorpeMarsh

Keadby

WestBurton

Cottam

HighMarnham

Staythorpe

Stanah

Heysham

Padiham

Hutton

BradfordWest Kirkstall Skelton

Poppleton

Thornton

Quernmore

Monk

EggboroughFerrybridge

Killingholme

SouthHumberBank Grimsby

West

Drax

Lackenby

Greystones

GrangetownSaltholme

Norton

Spennymoor

Tod Point

Hartlepool

Hart Moor

Hawthorne Pit

Offerton

West BoldonSouth Shields

Tynemouth

StellaWest

Harker

Eccles

Blyth

IndianQueens

Coryton

RatcliffeWillington

Drakelow

Shrewsbury

Cross

Weybridge

Cross

Wood

North

FrystonGrange

Ferry

Winco Bank

Norton Lees

Creyke BeckSaltend North

Saltend South

Hackney

BaglanBay

LeightonBuzzard

PatfordBridge

Northfleet EastSinglewell

Fourstones

Humber Refinery

SpaldingNorth

West Thurrock

ISSUE B 12-02-09 41/177619 C Collins Bartholomew Ltd 1999

Dingwall

Dounreay

Newarthill

Cumbernauld

Kincardine

WishawStrathaven

KilmarnockSouth

Ayr

Coylton

Inveraray

HelensburghDunoon

Inverkip

DevolMoor

Hunterston

Sloy

Fort William

Bonnybridge

Neilston

Ceannacroc

Conon

Fort AugustusFoyers

Inverness

Stornoway

Elvanfoot

Kaimes

Glenrothes

Westfield

Grangemouth

Longannet

Linmill

Bathgate

Errochty Power Station

Torness

Cockenzie

Keith

Thurso

FasnakyleBeauly

Deanie

Lairg

Shin

Nairn

Kintore

Blackhillock

Elgin

Keith

Peterhead

Persley

Fraserburgh

InvergarryQuoich

CulligranAigas

Kilmorack

GrudieBridge

Mossford

OrrinLuichart

Alness

Brora

CassleyDunbeath

Mybster

St. Fergus

Strichen

Macduff

Boat ofGarten

Redmoss

Willowdale

Clayhills

Dyce

Craigiebuckler

Woodhill

Tarland

DalmallyKillin

Errochty

Tealing

GlenagnesDudhope

Milton of Craigie

Dudhope

Lyndhurst

CharlestonBurghmuir

Arbroath

Fiddes

Bridge of Dun

Lunanhead

St. Fillans

Finlarig

Lochay

Cashlie

Rannoch

TummelBridge

Clunie

Taynuilt

Nant

Cruachan

PortAnn

Carradale

Auchencrosh

Lambhill

ClydesMill

Glenluce

NewtonStewart

Maybole

Dumfries Ecclefechan

Berwick

Hawick

Galashiels

Dunbar

Meadowhead

Saltcoats

HunterstonFarm

SP TRANSMISSION LTD.

Kilwinning

Currie

Cupar

Leven

Redhouse

Glenniston

SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRICTRANSMISSION

Telford Rd.Gorgie

KilmarnockTown

Busby

Erskine

Strathleven

MossmorranDunfermline

Broxburn

Livingston

Whitehouse

ShrubhillPortobello

Devonside

StirlingWhistlefield

SpangoValley

Ardmore

Broadford

Dunvegan

NGC

Easterhouse

EastKilbrideSouth

Gretna

Chapelcross

THE SHETLAND ISLANDS

Tongland

GlenMorrison

Clachan

400kV Substations275kV Substations400kV CIRCUITS275kV CIRCUITS

Major Generating Sites Including Pumped Storage

Connected at 400kVConnected at 275kVHydro Generation

TRANSMISSION SYSTEM REINFORCEMENTS

Langage

BlacklawWhitelee

Iverkeithing

Marchwood

BickerFenn

Coalburn

REINFORCED NETWORK

Under Construction or ready to startConstruction subject to consents

Very strong need case

Series Capacitors

RedbridgeTottenham

Strong need case

Future requirement, but no strongneed case to commenceat present

Proposed 2020 Network

Based on Gone Green scenario

Intra network-HVDC links

Thyristor Controlled Series Compensation

Multiple Quad Boosters

High boundary transfers

Complex fault management

http://www.ensg.gov.uk/index.php?article=126

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Electricity Transmission System - Today

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Electricity Transmission System - 2030

Many new technologies for the onshore system

Embedded HVDC

Series Capacitors

Wide Area Monitoring

Dynamic Ratings

Etc.

Aim is to enhance the performance of the existing network

Technical Challenges - Onshore

This is the BIG Challenge!

New technologies – not just for the UK

VSC HVDC

Multi-terminal HVDC

Very large connections (>11GW)

Rapid introduction of new technology to the UK

Offshore Development Information Statement: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/ODIS/

Technical Challenges - Offshore

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Infrastructure Costs

Estimated costs to deliver the future

£5bn to deliver onshore reinforcements

Gone Green Scenario

£15.9bn for radial solution

£11.5bn for integrated solution

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Operational uncertainties and risk - Managing the system

Changing the fuel mix: Gone Greenchanging dependencies

High winds exceed minimum system demands - constrain off, build more interconnectors or increase storage

Potential greater reliance on gas for balancing

Need for high level of generation capacity - some with very low utilisation

2010

2020

Summer Minimum 2010202020202010

Demand

Interconnectors

WindWind

Interconnectors

OilGas

Gas

Coal

Coal

NuclearNuclear

Summer Minimum Demand Generation

Wind

Nuclear

Summer Minimum Demand Generation

Wind

Nuclear

70GW 100GW

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Intermittency

WinterDemand - windpower output

2030 capacity

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 166 331 496 661 826 991 1156 1321 1486 1651 1816 1981 2146

24 Hrs 01/12/2004 - 28/02/2005

GW

Series1

WinterDemand & windpower output

2030 Capacity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 174 347 520 693 866 1039 1212 1385 1558 1731 1904 2077

24 Hrs 01/12/2004 - 28/02/2005

GW Wind output

Demand

3 month period modelled using 2005 demand data and projected 2030 levels of wind

Generation greater than demand!

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Indicative Short Term Operating Reserve Requirement - 2020

56%

16%

15%

6% 1%

2%

4%

Small Demand sites

Large Demand sites

BM STOR

Non-BM STOR

Pumped Storage

Interconnectors

Typical Current Winter Reserve Provider Breakdown

Potential Opportunity for New Reserve Providers in 2020

4%9%

36%34%

15%

2%

~3.5GW ~8.2GW

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Operations Challenges

Intermittency

Generation forecasting

Reduced system Inertia

Increased variation in flows across the system

Different demand profiles

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Conclusion

Many challenges to come

We need to understand the issues and work to develop solutions

Need to know the “unknown unknowns”

Need as much research as possible

Energy Storage – would solve a lot of problems

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Thank You!

Any Questions?