Low Carbon Development Planning

How to EFFECT Low Carbon Development

What is EFFECT?

• Excel-based, bottom-up, engineering style model

• Supports consensus building and planning in key sectors of the economy

• Helps assess the impact of policy choices on GHG emission levels

• Used in Brazil, India, Poland, and six Asian-Pacific countries

Energy Forecasting Framework & Emissions Consensus Tool

How does EFFECT Support Low Carbon Development (LCD)?

SCENARIO PLANNING• Develop emissions forecasts over a 25-year+ period • Prioritize GHG emission reduction • Design development and investment plans • Identify conditions necessary for a supportive, enabling environment

for implementation

MULTI-SECTOR FOCUS• Power Generation• Large-Scale Energy Intensive Industry• On-Road Transport• Household Electricity Use• Nonresidential Energy Use

Transport

EFFECT – Transport model

Forecast change in – Freight and passenger transport needs– On-road vehicle fleet size and composition– Fuel/energy consumption and GHG emissions

Why is it important? Both passenger and freight are fastest growing GHG sectors in most

developing countries– Increasing urbanization– Increasing household income

Both are often underestimated– In Mexico City, on-road transport almost half of total combustion

energy

Transport Model

Current Usage:– Initially developed for the India Low Carbon Growth Study – Has been used in 9 city-level studies:

Bangkok, Beijing, Chengdu,

Guangzhou, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City,

Jakarta, Manila, Ulaanbaatar– Used in Brazil Low Carbon Growth Study and Nigeria– Basis for CTF measurement methodology

Transport Modeling Framework

Purpose

Calculate and forecast

Vehicle Ownership and Use

Transport Model

Purpose

Disaggregate vehicle ownership and use

Calculate and forecast

• Fuel consumption

Fossil and Total• GHG emissions

Ultimate CO2• Local emissions

CO, VOC, NOx, PM

Transport Model

Five step process

Project ownership and usage of vehicles Disaggregate vehicle population by type, technology, age, and

fuel and project sales of new vehicles Compute the fuel consumption and emissions factors for each

specific type and technology of vehicle using the COPERT 4 model calibrated to local conditions..

Project improvements in vehicle efficiency using a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for distinct types and sub-types of vehicle.

Compute the energy consumption and emissions for each type and sub-type of vehicle and for the active vehicle

population.

Compute Emissions

Key Variables Output from transport model or data on vehicle

ownership and use Historic sales data Forecast sales mix Fuel consumption data for calibration Energy efficiency assumptions and adoption timeline

EFFECT Model

www.esmap.org