MP - Chapter 3 - Aviation Activity and Forecasts(2).pdf

8/18/2019 MP - Chapter 3 - Aviation Activity and Forecasts(2).pdf

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3CHAPTER

A V IATION A CTIVITY

AND FORECASTS

v


2/21

This chapter will initially outline

the market profile of Toronto and

associated history, explain the cur-

rent market activity and factors

that affect that activity before

forecasting the expected future

demand levels of passengers and

aircraft movements. It will explain

the reasons for forecasting and theimpacts the levels of demand will

have on the facility as a whole,

comparing these levels to industry

standards before finishing with

implications.

Chapter 3 > A VI AT IO N A C T IV I TY A N D FORE CASTS

A V I A T I O N A C T I V I T Y A N D F O R E C A S T S

Chapter 3

This chapter discusses the future

demand for air travel at Toronto

Pearson International Airport. The

ability of the Airport to accommo-

date this demand will be discussed

in subsequent chapters.

Since the first aircraft touched

down on its runway over 70 years

ago, Toronto Pearson has becomeCanada’s principal airport, as well

as one of the busiest airports in

the world. The central geographi-

cal location of Toronto within

Canada, its large local market, and

its proximity to the U.S. market

make the Airport important for

both mainline and feeder services

of major Canadian and inter-

national airlines.

Toronto Pearson’s status as one of

the world’s busiest airports is illus-

trated in Table 3-1, which shows

Toronto’s ranking in the top 30

airports for the last decade in

terms of passenger traffic and

aircraft movements. Comparative

airports include Singapore,

Philadelphia, Tokyo Narita,

Miami and Seattle.

A strong travel market has de-

veloped that directly links Toronto

Pearson to countries in North

America, the Caribbean, Central

and South America, Europe, the

Middle East and Asia. Theseroutes, in turn, provide links to

the remaining world markets.

Toronto Pearson currently accom-

modates over 30 million Enplaned

and Deplaned (E&D) passengers

per year. Demand is expected to

rise to 36 million by 2010

(including revenue and non-

revenue E&D passengers), to

approximately 50 million by

2020 and to approximately

66 million by 2030. Asso-

ciated aircraft movement

demand is expected to

increase from 417,000 in

2006 to 637,000 by

2020 and 801,000

by 2030.

W O RLD RA N K I N G – T O RO N T O P E A RS O N I N T E RN A T I O N A L A I RP O RT

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total Passengers 25 25 25 27 26 29 29 29 29 29

Aircraft Movements 25 23 28 27 22 27 29 23 23 20

Total Cargo* 48 49 45 50 53 56 60 61 42 38

Source: Airports Council International Worldwide Airport Traffic Reports

*Understated – Toronto Pearson cargo volumes prior to 2005 do not include mail or regional carriers’ cargo volumes

T A B LE 3 - 1

3 . 1 A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y O V E R V I E W

3.1.1 Role of Toronto – National and International


3/21Chapter 3 > A VI AT IO N A C T IV I T Y A N D FORE CASTS

3.2

3.1.2 Market Profile

Currently, 79 scheduled and char-

ter airlines serve* Toronto Pearson,

providing non-stop service** to

37 domestic, 83 U.S. (transborder)

destinations and same-plane

service to 100 other international

cities (Summer 2006). Domestic

travel refers to travel within

Canada. Transborder travel refers

to travel between a Canadian air-

port and a U.S. airport, and inter-

national travel refers to travel

between a Canadian airport and

an airport in another part of the

world. (See Table 3-2). With non-

stop service to so many destina-

tions, Toronto Pearson is an

attractive international gateway

for Canadian and U.S. connecting

passengers (ranked 23rd in the

world for connecting passengers

in 2006). In fact, the Airport is

the fifth largest entry point into

the United States after New York- JFK, Chicago, Miami and Los

Angeles international airports.

Toronto Pearson also plays a key

role in the North American air

route structure and is the central

connecting point for Canadians

travelling across the country. With

Air Canada and WestJet as the

major domestic scheduled carriers,passengers are connected with

major cities in Canada, the U.S.,

and the rest of the world. Regional

carriers provide access to smaller

cities in North America. The six

major American carriers

(American Airlines, United

Airlines, U.S. Airways, Northwest

Airlines, Continental Airlines and

Delta Airlines) provide additionalservice to transborder destinations.

Scheduled and charter passenger

transportation account for the

majority of air services at Toronto

Pearson (88 per cent of aircraft

movements in 2006, See Figure

3-1). Approximately 50 per cent

of cargo freight is transported in

the bellyholds of passenger air-

craft, with the remainder being transported in dedicated cargo air-

craft. The remaining activity is

comprised of general aviation

(GA), which includes business

aviation (BA), private aircraft and

government and military aircraft.

At Toronto Pearson, business avia-

tion is the predominant segment.

For reasons noted in Chapter 10,

activity in the other segments of

GA has been decreasing and isnow of minor significance

compared to BA activity.

Over the past three decades,

scheduled and charter air carriers

have seen their shares of passenger

traffic fluctuate between approxi-

mately 85-91 per cent for

scheduled and 9-15 per cent for

charter. A recent decline in the

charter carriers’ shares to the 9 percent level has occurred due to the

aftermath of September 11, 2001

(9/11) when a number of smaller

charter carriers ceased operations.

The scheduled carriers’ have

improved their focus on point-to-

point travel, and low-cost

T O RO N T O P E A RS O N ’ S T O P RO U T E S ( 2 0 0 6 )

Domestic Transborder International

1 Montreal Chicago London (All)

2 Vancouver New York Frankfurt

3 Ottawa Los Angeles Paris

4 Calgary Orlando Amsterdam

5 Halifax Miami Hong Kong6 Winnipeg Las Vegas Cancun

7 Edmonton Atlanta Punta Cana

8 Thunder Bay Boston Cuba

9 London San Francisco Manchester

10 Windsor Dallas Rome

T A B LE 3 - 2

39% Passenger (Domestic)

11% Passenger (International)

4% Cargo

8% Business Aviation

38% Passenger (Transborder)

Distribution of Aircraft Movements (2006)

F I G U RE 3 - 1

0102030405060708090

100

2006200520042003200220012000

Charter vs. Scheduled Traffic

F I G U R E 3 - 2

P e r c e n t a g e o f T o t a l P a s s e n g e r s

Cha rter S ch eduled*to serve means to provide a certain level of service, 6 times a week service between two destinations for both domestic and transborder operations, and 4 times weekly service for international operations** non-stop service means providing direct point-to-point service without stopping at any intermediate location, even to drop off or collect additional passengers


4/21Chapter 3 > A VI AT IO N A C T IV I TY A N D FORE CASTS

scheduled carriers have gained mar-

ket share (See Figure 3-2).Tradi-

tionally, charter carriers havefocused on southern vacation desti-

nations and European leisure mar-

kets. It is expected that over time,

the charter carriers will continue to

focus on vacation traffic maintain-

ing around 10 per cent of the

Airport’s passenger market share.

Toronto Pearson has a great impact

on regional traffic as many flights

from other Ontario communitiesand adjacent U.S. cities are routed

to or through the Airport. Tradi-

tionally, only turboprop aircraft,

such as the Dash-8, served these

markets, but the advent of the

regional jet in 1992 transformed

and expanded this market.

Regional jets (RJ) enable carriers

to economically operate jet aircraft

(the preferred mode of air trans-portation from the passengers’ per-

spective) on these routes and

consist of models such as the

Canadair RJ 100/200 and the

Embraer 135/145. These smaller

fuel-efficient aircraft are also

replacing larger jets on routes with

lower passenger volumes, allowing

carriers to fly these routes with

increased frequency without anincrease in total capacity.

With the increase in innovation of

such aircraft, airlines are exploiting

the economies of frequency with

cost-savings to enable these air-

craft to fly further distances than

ever before. New aircraft have

come from the Embraer family in

the form of the EMB 175/195

and from Bombardier in theCanadair RJ 700/900 series. These

innovations have led to the con-

cept of producing the “right size”

aircraft for each market, which

implies that each route requires

different-sized aircraft. Matching

the correct aircraft in terms of

seats and weight (economies of

scale) is key to airline operating

success in the future.

The last 10 years’ traffic presented

in Section 3.3 reflects the fast-

growing rate of aircraft movements

in and out of Toronto Pearson

compared to passenger volumes.

Regional airlines currently

represent the fastest growing

segment of the North American

airline industry, a feat made possi-

ble to a large extent by the RJ, and

to some extent by the downturn

in traffic in the aftermath of 9/11,

when many routes were “right-sized” from mainline carriers to

their regional feeders.

Most regional airlines are affiliated

with or contracted by mainline

airlines and use the Airport as a

hub, or with U.S. carriers for

which the commuter provides

supplemental service to Toronto

from U.S. airports.

3.1.3 Network Carriers, LowCost and Charters

Three different types of carriers

operate at Toronto Pearson. The

traditional network carriers, such

as Air Canada, British Airways,

American Airlines, are considered

to be scheduled airlines with

every day service to the majority of destinations with relatively

more frequency. Most network

carriers operate a hub and spoke

network, connecting passengers

through hubs and to/from

regional affiliates. Following 9/11

and the subsequent downturn in

the market, the network carriers

have implemented a number of

Terminal 3 Departures Level



3.4

initiatives in an attempt to reduce

cost and compete on a globalscale. These initiatives included

downloading “local operations” to

regional affiliates, forming

stronger alliances as a catalyst for

additional connecting traffic and

developing more point-to-point

flying in the international sector.

An alternative type of scheduled

carrier is the Low-Cost Carrier

(LCC), for example, WestJet,

Southwest, RyanAir and EasyJet.

These are a newer generation of

airlines who compete with the

network carriers by avoiding the

overhead costs associated with:

• operating a variety of aircraft

types

• offering extra services such as

connections and interlines

• serving regional and interna-

tional destinations

• providing multi-class configura-

tions, lounges, meals and other

amenities.

They tend to operate a more con-

centrated business with a single or

limited number of aircraft types

and fewer destinations, but com-

pete on price and frequency of

service with the major network

airlines. They focus on point-to-point service with limited

alliances/relationships leading to

less connecting traffic and more

Origin and Destination (O&D)

traffic. The only connecting traffic

carried by an LCC would usually

be through traffic (same plane

service). LCCs encourage their

passengers to “self-connect”

through appropriately timed

schedules with the passenger

responsible for baggage handling.

As the LCCs are growing into

major players in the industry

through expanded routes and

some consolidation/mergers, such

as South west buying Morris Air

and EasyJet buying Go (a former

British Airways subsidiary), they

are pushing network carriers tocompete at a lower cost level. As

LCCs expand, they may very soon

begin to cross paths with other

LCCs. So far, LCCs in North

America have generally been able

to compete only with network

airlines, such as Southwest vs.

U.S. Airways at Philadelphia and

Charlotte, and Southwest vs.

American at Dallas Fort Worth.

Some LCC competition has

existed, such as WestJet vs. JetsGo

and CanJet at Toronto and

RyanAir vs. EasyJet in the UK, but

these are limited.

Currently in Canada, WestJet is

competing against Air Canada’s

no-frills Tango service, which was

initially devised by Air Canada

as a separate entity. It later became

a fare option on many of

Air Canada’s domestic and trans-

border routes. WestJet, which

began operating as an LCC, has

adopted some higher service fea-

tures (leather seats, personal enter-tainment systems) which elevate it

from a traditional “LCC”. How-

ever, WestJet continues to operate

at an LCC cost structure with LCC

processes, such as single aircraft

type and no interlining – yet.

The third airline type is the

Charter carrier. Charter airlines

operate a more seasonal service,

serving the major holiday and vis-

iting friends and relatives traffic

segments, rather than competing

with network carriers for business

travellers. They operate in the

peak seasons and tend to reduce

operations in the quieter periods.

During the winter, most of their

service is to sunspot destinations

Terminal 1 Departures Level



in the U.S. and Central America,

while in the summer they offer

service to Canadian long-haul hol-

iday destinations and to Europe.

Air Transat and Skyservice are two

of the longest-serving Charter car-

riers operating at Toronto Pearson.

In assessing market shares for the

three types of airlines, naturally

the historic trend favours network

carriers. LCCs, however, are start-

ing to gain market share on

growth markets both domestically

and to the U.S. The international

sector, however, does not suit thelow-cost model other than holiday

traffic to sunspot destinations at

off peak times, such as weekends.

The differentiation between net-

work carriers and LCCs has faded

in recent years as network carriers

have attempted to de-bundle serv-

ices in order to compete with

LCCs. At the same time, LCCs

have stretched their definition tomaintain growth by adding more

services to their offering, such as

in-flight entertainment, leather

seats and some connectivity. As the

gap narrows, it is difficult to depict

a clear future for the long-term air-

line market share in Toronto.

3.1.4 Origin/Destination andConnecting Passengers

Since Toronto Pearson has a

strong Origin and Destination

(O&D) traffic base, where passen-gers either begin or end their jour-

ney at this airport, the Airport

benefits from a large diversity of

routes. This base of traffic enables

and encourages carriers to flow

passengers through Toronto

Pearson to other destinations.

Several U.S. hubs have a much

weaker O&D base where the

majority of customers use thoseairports as hubs to connect on

further. For example, Atlanta and

Chicago have connecting traffic

levels around 50-70 per cent.

Heathrow has a connection rate

of about 25 per cent.

As a hub airport for Star Alliance

and WestJet in North America,

Toronto Pearson is used as a sig-

nificant connecting point for passengers on many journeys.

Approximately 20 per cent of

passengers at the Airport are con-

necting. Historically, Toronto

Pearson and Montreal’s Trudeau

International Airport were primary

airports for people travelling

within Canada and beyond. In the

1980s, many new routes were

developed linking many smaller

Canadian cities directly. In the

1990s, Open Skies permitted

increased access for these cities toU.S. destinations.

Due to the evolving structure of

air carriers, however, the increase

in operations bypassing Toronto

Pearson has been offset by the

development of hub and spoke

operations at Toronto. This allows

carriers to provide increased fre-

quencies for travellers as well as an

increase in operating efficiencies.International to U.S. connections

are being established and devel-

oped in conjunction with airline

alliance growth. Open Skies

between Canada and the UK, as

well as other countries in years to

come, will facilitate more use of

Toronto as a hub to the U.S. and

beyond, by enabling multiple car-

riers to operate more frequently tomore destinations.

3.1.5 Air Cargo Profile

In terms of air cargo, Toronto

Pearson serves not only as a gate-

way for shipments originating in

or destined for the GTA, but also

as a major trans-shipment centre

Air Cargo



3.6

for cargo travelling between other

Canadian and international points.

With the continued trend toward

global trade, the importance of the

far-reaching network of routes

from the Airport can only be

expected to better serve Ontario’s

shippers and manufacturers.

The importance of Toronto

Pearson as the dominant Canadian

airport for air cargo is expected to

continue, in both regional and

national contexts; however, the

increased use of RJs in right-sizing

markets instead of larger aircraft isnegatively impacting belly cargo

capacity on some North American

routes. Freighters are now filling

this role and are expected to do so

into the future.

Consolidation and reorganization

have been affecting the air cargo

industry since the late 1990s with

the trend accelerating in more

recent times as many of the largercompanies look to strengthen their

market position. This has com-

prised acquisitions, restructuring

and consolidation of some opera-

tions. The effect is that logistics

companies are now concentrating

their search for airport sites on

those that can accommodate their

long-term expansion plans, with

some airports benefiting at the

expense of others.

The last several years have been

somewhat volatile with regard to

total cargo handled at Toronto

Pearson. Total cargo activity

world wide reached its highest ever

level in 1999 and with the eco-

nomic slowdown and subsequent

impacts of 9/11 and SARS respec-

tively, the total cargo volumes

have declined a total of nearly fiveper cent per annum since

that period.

Some clear distinctions of cargo

compared to passenger traffic

include the fact that cargo is pre-

dominantly one-direction traffic,

and therefore unbalanced activity

often benefits one company more

than others, for example an

importer of goods compared withan exporter of goods.

In the more recent decline in air

cargo traffic, freighter demand suf-

fered far less than passenger hold

demand. This indicates that there

has still been strong demand for

freighter service compared with

passenger service.

3.1.6 Business Aviation Profile

Business Aviation (BA) exists at

Toronto Pearson because a num-ber of corporate aircraft are

housed in the Infield and north

Business Aviation Areas. BA has a

broad variety of uses from flying

corporate executives between busi-

nesses to intersecting with com-

mercial charter operations. These

types of operations are considered

to aid a business, government, or

military operation, and, in gen-

eral, not to be available to the

public for hire nor involve cargo

operations. Corporate aircraft are

piloted by individuals who have,

at a minimum, a valid commercial

pilot’s licence with an

instrument rating.

Traditionally, operators of BA air-

craft use aircraft with between five

and 14 seats. Since 1991, BA traf-fic has fluctuated, reaching a peak

in the mid- to late 1990s. More

recently, BA aircraft movements

have been lower due to the down-

turn in the industry.

At Toronto Pearson, there is a ten-

dency to use larger BA aircraft

based on demand. Over the last

five years, total BA movements

have grown at an average rate of two per cent per annum, primarily

due to charter carrier traffic and

some government traffic, although

the latter comprises a small pro-

portion of total BA traffic. See

Chapter 10 on Business Aviation.

Business Aviation Aircraft



3 . 2 H I S T O R I C A L G R O W T H

Demand for aviation services is

ultimately contingent on the gen-

eral health of the economy. As

illustrated in Figure 3-3, growth

rates in passenger volumes co-

incide with growth rates in the economy (recessions in 1981-84,

1991-93 and 2001-03). However,

the 9/11 terrorist attacks were a

shock to this relationship, as was

the advent of SARS (2003) and

the Iraq and Afghan wars, which

have depressed aviation travel in

recent years. By 2006-07, traffic

levels were back to normal and

returning to the trend line,except on U.S. routes, due to

the war in Iraq and heightened

and restrictive security measures

in this market.

Along the way, changes to the reg-

ulation of the air carrier industry

can also have a significant effect

on demand. These changes may

arise from regulatory reform usu-

ally due to domestic and interna-tional events. In the early 1980s,

the increased freedom of access to

the air travel market in Canada

(economic regulatory reform) led

to a brief period of increased com-

petition from new entrants. This

increased competition and the

wide availability of discount fares

contributed significantly to excep-

tional passenger traffic growth of

5.3 per cent per annum until

1988. Similar growth occurred in

the mid-1990s when the Open

Skies accord between Canada and

the U.S. was implemented.

After the boom in the late 1990s,

the economy began to slow in

2001 and traffic began to show

signs of weakening. When the

9/11 terrorist attacks occurred, the

Airport experienced a major traffic

shock with a reduction in traffic of

20 per cent in the fourth quarter

of 2001. Traffic declines contin-

ued through the first three quar-

ters of 2002 with security issues,

travel fears, and economic woes

crippling the industry. With

Toronto Pearson’s close proximity

to the U.S. and its high propor-

tion of U.S. traffic (nearly 25 per

cent of total airport traffic), the

impacts of 9/11 were higher than

most non-U.S. airports.

By 2003, another war in Iraq and

the SARS outbreak affected traffic

at Toronto Pearson. By the end of

2003, although the city was

deemed SARS free, traffic had

declined again (-4.6 per cent)

and was 15 per cent lower than

in 2000.

However, by 2004, the economy

had recovered and most of the avi-

ation shocks had diminished. Air

traffic at Toronto Pearson had

increased by 15 per cent and both

the domestic and international

sectors had recovered to beyond

their 2000 peaks.

In 2005 and 2006, oil price

increases limited capacity growth

in the industry and brought fuel

surcharges to passengers. Traffic

levels, however, continued to

increase and reached 30.97 mil-

lion passengers in 2006 (compared

to 28.8 million in 2000). How-

ever, transborder traffic had not

yet fully recovered to year 2000

levels (-9.5 per cent vs. 2000).

Overall, this limited capacity

growth and continued passenger

traffic increases brought load fac-

tors, the measure of passengers to

available seats, to record levels.

Figure 3-4 shows comparative

annual traffic levels from 2000-

2006 for each sector.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2006200520042003200220012000

Passengers by Sector 2000-2006

F I G U R E 3 - 4

P a s

s e n g e r s ( 0 0 0 s )

Domestic International Transborder

200520001995199019851980197519701965

Enplaned and Deplaned Passengers, Historical Trend – 1965-2006

F I G U RE 3 - 3

E / D P a s s e n g e r s ( 0 0 0 , 0

0 0 s )

Total Pax Trend Line

1983:

Iran/Iraq War

1990-1993:Gulf War/Recession/GST

1995:Open Skies

2003:SARS and Iraq War

1992-1994:Recession

2000:AC/CP Merger

2001:9/11

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0



3.8

3 . 3 A V I A T I O N F O R E C A S T S

3.3.1 Forecasting Process

The forecasts presented in this

Master Plan are based on the

national system forecasts prepared

by Transport Canada in 2006.This forecast reflects the latest out-

look for world economies and the

structure of the airline industry.

The method for producing fore-

casts has been refined to ade-

quately account for changes in

regional growth rates and airline

market shares for both existing

and potential new carriers at

Toronto Pearson.

3.3.2 Factors Affecting AviationDemand

Economic and demographic fac-

tors relevant to forecasting avia-

tion activity can be divided into

those affecting the demand side

and those affecting the supply

side. Additionally, several strategicfactors come into play.

As was discussed in Chapter 2,

demand for aviation services is

driven by the general health of the

economy, both domestically and

abroad, and individual purchasing

power. The significant factors are

Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

Personal Disposable Income (PDI),

adult and immigrant population

(especially adult population) and

air fares. The supply of aviation

services provided by the carriers

depends upon competition from

other air carriers and other modes

of travel, fuel cost and efficiency,

labour costs, and other industry

specific factors including govern-

ment regulation, policy issues, air-

port and air navigation costs,

congestion and environmental ini-

tiatives. All of these factors influ-

ence the airline fleets (number of aircraft and size of planes), passen-

ger loads, and route structures.

Fluctuations in currency exchange

rates (including the recent

increases in the Canadian dollar

relative to the U.S. dollar) appear

to have had a negligible effect on

total passenger traffic at Toronto

Pearson. Rather, the proportion of

passenger traffic from the higher-currency country tends to increase

compared to the lower-currency

country as their buying power

increases. Socio-political unrest in

recent years has been a more sig-

nificant factor than in previous

years as many people have chosen

to avoid the U.S. while it is

occupying Iraq.

Strategic factors are those that

may cause structural shifts from

historical patterns of supply and

demand for aviation services.

These factors include the growth

of teleconferencing and other

forms of electronic commu-

nication, the presence of LCCs

and charter air carriers, other

sources of low-fare travel, and

since 9/11, the “hassle factor” of

travel by air such as security uncertainty and inconsistency.

The impact of teleconferencing

may be negligible due to its pro-

pensity to offset negative factors.

Results suggest that 5-10 per cent

of business travel growth may be

lost in the future. However, the

increase in global trade associated

with electronic communication

may offset some or all of this andcould have a positive impact on

international air travel as it pro-

motes growth in the global econ-

omy. Indications on the effect of

the “hassle factor” are already

reflected in the loss of five per

cent in shorthaul markets where

the uncertainty of processing

times is a relatively significant fac-

tor. However, as these systemsmature and technological advances

streamline the process, it is

expected that this impact

will reduce.

Terminal 1 Check-In Counters



3.3.3 Passenger ForecastingProcess

The process of forecasting passen-

gers starts with the Transport

Canada Forecasting Group’s

system-wide forecast of passenger

demand and aircraft movements. An econometric passenger origin/

destination model (PODM) and a

passenger traffic allocation model

(PTAM) are used to prepare a

forecast for the top 77 airports

in Canada. Inputs to these

models include those listed in

Section 3.3.2.

Economic forecasts based on the

outlooks of several external agen-cies, such as the Conference Board

of Canada and Informetrica, are

used in conjunction with historical

traffic data in these models to fore-

cast the demand for travel. The

base model (PODM) projects the

number of origin and destination

(O&D) passengers for each area of

the country for the domestic,

transborder and other inter-national markets. Enplaned/

deplaned passenger volumes are

forecast by incorporating connect-

ing passenger traffic derived from

the passenger allocation model to

yield an integrated forecast for

each of the major airports in the

country, as well as an aircraft

movement forecast.

The forecasts are then reviewed

and finalized by the GTAA. The

following adjustments are made to

the forecasts:• To account for non-revenue pas-

sengers (airline employees or

others travelling at deeply dis-

counted fares)

• To adjust to facility-based sector

definitions to provide the micro-

level detail required for facility

planning purposes.

The forecasting process is under-

taken annually by Transport Can-ada and is tracked by the GTAA

on a monthly basis. Figure 3-5

demonstrates the accuracy of the

forecasts done using this method

for two previous iterations.

Redeveloped facilities at Toronto

Pearson should appeal to passen-

gers arriving from European and

other international cities and

bound for U.S. cities for which

little or no direct routes exist to

meet demand. To facilitate this

role, in-transit pre-clearance facili-

ties, which preclude the need for

international to transborder con-

necting passengers to pass through

Canadian Customs, are already

available in Terminal 1 and will be

available in Terminal 3 as demand

warrants. As a result, connecting

passenger volumes between inter-

national and transborder sectors

are expected to increase in theTransport Canada numbers. The

forecasts used reflect additional

connections between sectors, both

at the aggregate level and on a

daily profile basis where connect-

ing volumes are incorporated into

future facility requirements.

3.3.4 Passenger Demand

In 2006, the enplaned and de-

planed (E&D) traffic reached

30.97 million passengers at

Toronto Pearson with approxi-

mately 80 per cent representing

O&D traffic and the remainder

accounted for by connecting

traffic.

O&D traffic represents passengers

originating or terminating theirtrips at Toronto Pearson whereas

connecting passengers use Toronto

Pearson as a connecting point to

travel between two other points.

Regional is defined as the passen-

gers whose origin/destination is in

the Greater Toronto catchment

area, which is described in

Chapter 2 of this Master Plan as

the Airport’s Total Service Area.Regional O&D passenger volumes

are projected to grow from about

23 million in 2006 to almost

50 million by 2030. Regional

O&D passenger forecasts are pre-

sented in Table 3-3 and Figure 3-6.

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990198919881087198619851984198319821981198019791978

Accuracy of Transport Canada Forecasts

F I G U RE 3 - 5

E

/ D R e v e n u e P a s s e n g e r s

In 1986Actual In 1992



3.10

Total regional E&D passenger

traffic over the longer term is

expected to grow from about

31 million passengers in 2006 to

about 66 million by 2030, for an

average annual growth rate of

approximately three per cent. In

addition to the assumptions

previously discussed, it should be

noted that this is a demand fore-

cast for the Toronto region and

does not take into account any

capacity limitations.

Forecasts of E&D passengers

are detailed in Table 3-4 and

Figure 3-7.

Currently, traffic at the Airport

consists of 43 per cent domestic,

29 per cent transborder, and

28 per cent international passen-

gers. Over the long term, these

figures are expected to become

more balanced with international,

followed by transborder volumes,

growing at a faster rate than

domestic volumes. The shift in

traffic is due to maturation of the

domestic market, the impact of

Open Skies and international con-

nections on transborder activity,

and the increase in global trade

and the international travel activ-

ity it generates. Open Skies have

enabled Toronto Pearson to

become a North American gate-

way as well as a primary airport

for Eastern/Central Canada for

both transborder and international

activity. With further international

Open Skies agreements antici-

pated, the expectation for even

higher international activity at

Toronto Pearson will be realized.

Throughout the forecast horizon,Toronto Pearson is expected to

continue to grow as a gateway

between Europe and North

America, and to a lesser extent

between Asia and North America

with longer-range aircraft and

expanded U.S. opportunities with

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2030202820262024202220202018201620142012201020082006200420022000199819961990

ForecastActual

Origin and Destination Passengers

F I G U RE 3 - 6

P a s s e n g e r s ( 0 0 0 , 0

0 0 s )

Domesti c T ra nsbo rder I nterna ti on al

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2030202820262024202220202018201620142012201020082006200420022000199819961990

ForecastActual

Enplaned and Deplaned Passengers

F I G U RE 3 - 7

P a s s e n g e r s ( 0 0 0 , 0

0 0 s )


O RI G I N A N D D E S T I N A T I O N P A S S E N G E RS

Year Domestic Transborder International Total

Actual 1990 6,610,000 5,610,000 4,318,000 16,538,000

1995 5,853,000 5,594,000 5,236,000 16,764,000

1996 6,240,000 6,236,000 5,129,000 17,605,000

1997 6,699,000 6,355,000 5,685,000 18,739,000

1998 6,732,000 6,669,000 5,973,000 19,374,0001999 6,859,000 6,910,000 6,272,000 20,041,000

2000 6,727,000 7,257,000 6,846,000 20,830,000

2001 6,719,000 6,649,000 6,796,000 20,164,000

2002 6,585,000 6,104,000 6,314,000 19,003,000

2003 6,437,000 5,475,000 6,214,000 18,126,000

2004 7,541,000 6,320,000 7,366,000 21,227,000

2005 7,783,000 6,643,000 7,998,000 22,424,000

2006 7,978,000 6,711,000 8,358,000 23,047,000

Forecast 2010 8,982,000 7,777,000 10,159,000 26,918,000

2015 10,315,000 9,450,000 12,457,000 32,222,000

2020 11,582,000 11,211,000 15,017,000 37,810,0002025 12,856,000 13,078,000 17,773,000 43,707,000

2030 14,105,000 14,963,000 20,594,000 49,662,000

T A B LE 3 - 3



RJ additions to the Air Canada

and Star Alliance fleets. The

opportunity for this growth

requires unconstrained runway

and terminal facilities, and further

development/integration of airline

alliances. The members of the

three main global airline alliances

are listed in Table 3-5. Currently,

only the Star Alliance has a

Canadian airline member.

Alliances with a Canadian carrier

are more likely to route operations

through Toronto Pearson for con-

nections between North American

and international destinations as

well as the usual domestic connec-

tions. The percentage of interna-tional passengers who arrive at the

Airport to board connecting

flights is expected to increase from

approximately 12 per cent in 2006

to approximately 21 per cent by

the end of the forecast horizon

mainly due to Open Skies and

stronger airline alliances.

3.3.5 Aircraft MovementForecasting Process

The forecast of aircraft movements

is derived from the passenger

demand forecast, and from an

econometric model for the non-

passenger operations (Business

Aviation and Cargo). Using cur-

rent airline statistics and accepted

forecasts of load factors and air-

craft sizes from the PTAM model

(see Section 3.3.3), passenger air

carrier movements are projected

for the airport system as a whole.

By adding the results of the non-

passenger operations model, the

total itinerant movement forecasts

are generated for the system and

for individual airports. The GTAA

reviews and modifies the forecasts

to account for sector definitiondifferences and local load factors,

which results in a set of forecasts

for use in facility and financial

planning analyses.

E N P LA N E D A N D D E P LA N E D P A S S E N G E RS


Actual 1990 10,390,000 6,748,000 4,915,000 22,053,000

1995 10,057,000 6,929,000 5,460,000 22,446,000

1996 10,772,000 7,903,000 5,584,000 24,259,000

1997 11,629,000 8,431,000 6,035,000 26,095,000

1998 11,939,000 8,650,000 6,143,000 26,732,0001999 12,376,000 9,080,000 6,329,000 27,785,000

2000 12,318,000 9,813,000 6,799,000 28,930,000

2001 12,304,000 8,989,000 6,750,000 28,043,000

2002 11,272,000 8,153,000 6,505,000 25,930,000

2003 11,022,000 7,316,000 6,401,000 24,739,000

2004 12,637,000 8,422,000 7,557,000 28,616,000

2005 12,906,000 8,803,000 8,205,000 29,914,000

2006 13,466,000 8,923,000 8,583,000 30,972,000

Forecast 2010 15,121,000 10,375,000 10,520,000 36,016,000

2015 17,139,000 12,703,000 13,049,000 42,891,000

2020 19,184,000 15,206,000 15,896,000 50,286,0002025 21,233,000 17,883,000 18,992,000 58,108,000

2030 23,233,000 20,609,000 22,188,000 66,030,000

T A B LE 3 - 4

A LLI A N C E A I RLI N E S

Star One World Skyteam

Air Canada American Aeroflot

Air New Zealand British Airways Aeromexico

All Nippon Finnair Air France

Asiana Cathay Pacific KLM Royal Dutch Airlines

Austrian Iberia Alitalia

British Midland Qantas Continental

LOT Polish LAN – Chile Czech

Lufthansa Malev – Hungarian Delta

SAS – Scandinavian Royal Jordanian Korean

Singapore Japan Northwest

South African

Spanair

Swiss Air

TAP – Portugal

Thai

UnitedU.S. Airways

T A B LE 3 - 5



3.12

For facility planning analysis, the

annual forecasts are converted to

future planning day schedules.

These schedules enable the plan-

ners to assess the facilities required

to accommodate the busy trafficperiods in the future. The forecasts

are used in airside, apron and ter-

minal gating simulations to deter-

mine future needs and timing. All

of this is described in more detail

in both the Airside System and

Passenger Terminals chapters,

Chapters 5 and 6 respectively.

3.3.6 Aircraft Operations

Toronto Pearson’s passenger air

carrier movement demand is

expected to grow from 367,000 in

2006 to approximately 564,000 in

2020, and continue to grow to

712,000 by 2030 (see Table 3-6

and Figure 3-8). Overall move-

ments, including Business

Aviation and Cargo, are also

expected to grow by almost two

per cent annually for the same

period. While the internationalsector is expected to be the higher

growth market, domestic and

transborder markets are more sus-

ceptible to changes in aircraft mix

by the carriers operating at

Toronto Pearson. Both of these

markets are fairly mature in terms

of passenger demand, however the

type of aircraft being used to

transport the passengers continues

to cycle from mainline larger air-

craft to smaller regional aircraft

during downturns, and now tonew larger RJs in the 75-100 seat

range. As the Airport approaches

capacity and becomes more con-

gested in the long term and as

new more efficient, narrow-body

aircraft are developed, the cycle

will continue to progress.

I T I N E RA N T A I RC RA F T M O V E M E N T S

Air Carrier – Passenger Aircraft Cargo,Business Aviation, Total

Year Domestic Transborder International Total Ferry, Technical Itinerant

Actual 1990 172,000 97,000 27,000 296,000 56,000 352,000

1995 156,000 113,000 25,000 294,000 49,000 343,000

1996 170,000 132,000 25,000 327,000 45,000 372,0001997 168,000 147,000 27,000 342,000 53,000 395,000

1998 177,000 162,000 28,000 367,000 54,000 421,000

1999 195,000 170,000 30,000 395,000 30,000 425,000

2000 168,000 181,000 37,000 386,000 41,000 427,000

2001 148,000 178,000 38,000 364,000 42,000 406,000

2002 135,000 167,000 35,000 337,000 46,000 383,000

2003 136,000 155,000 36,000 327,000 44,000 371,000

2004 151,000 161,000 43,000 355,000 49,000 404,000

2005 152,000 160,000 44,000 356,000 53,000 409,000

2006 163,000 159,000 45,000 367,000 51,000 417,000

Forecast 2010 181,000 186,000 54,000 421,000 60,000 481,0002015 204,000 220,000 66,000 490,000 65,000 555,000

2020 229,000 257,000 78,000 564,000 73,000 637,000

2025 253,000 297,000 91,000 641,000 81,000 722,000

2030 278,000 331,000 103,000 712,000 89,000 801,000

T A B LE 3 - 6

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

2030202620222018201420102006200219981990

ForecastActual

Itinerant Aircraft Movements

F I G U R E 3 - 8

M o v e m e n t s ( 0 0 0 s )

Domesti c T ra nsbo rder I nterna ti on al B us in ess Aviat io n



In the international sector, the

development of more economical

and long-range aircraft have facili-

tated the ability for airlines to

ensure they have the correct air-

craft in their fleet to serve specific

routes by “right-sizing”. This has

led to many airlines down-gauging

aircraft and the development of more robust aircraft, such as

Boeing’s new 787 family of air-

craft and the Airbus A350 XWB.

These aircraft will be able travel

farther due to wider wingspan

which, in turn, will make them

more cost-efficient. This is similar

to the continuing RJ revolution.

Aircraft manufacturers are also

looking to replace long-range and

high-capacity aircraft with develop-

ments such as the new Airbus

A380 and the prospective Boeing

B747-8 Intercontinental, and their

cargo derivatives. These aircraft are

being considered by airlines to

provide premium service on the

super long-range routes like

Sydney-London and Sydney-

Toronto non-stop and on high-

capacity markets to/from Asia pri-

marily to Europe and the U.S.

Opportunities for these aircraft at

Toronto Pearson are in the high-

density Toronto-London and

Toronto-Frankfurt markets as well

as in high-growth Toronto-Asia

routes such as Toronto-Narita,

Toronto-Beijing and Toronto-

Delhi. Should these aircraft

increase in popularity, Toronto

Pearson is already equipped with

the necessary facilities to accom-

modate them through the forecasthorizon.

3.3.7 Air Cargo Demand

Toronto Pearson is the largest

cargo airport in Canada. Moving

a total of 517,000 metric tonnes

of air cargo in 2006, Toronto

Pearson is significantly ahead of

its competitors, and currently

ranks 38th in the world for air

cargo volumes.

The shipment of parcels, packages

and larger items by air has histori-

cally been a secondary business for

air carriers, but has grown in

importance with globalization.

Approximately one half of cargo

shipped at Toronto Pearson is in

the bellyholds of passenger air-

craft. Pure cargo air carriers, how-

ever, are capturing marketshare,

including FedEx, UPS, DHL,

Martinair and Volga-Dnepr.

The GTAA obtains the cargo fore-

cast from Transport Canada who

use regression analysis to forecast

air cargo volumes. Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) is used as the key

explanatory variable in the fore-

cast. Historically, a one per cent

change in GDP has resulted in

approximately a one per cent

change in total air cargo volumes.The resulting cargo forecast, dis-

played in Table 3-7, reveals overall

average growth of three per cent

per annum to 2030.

It should be noted that the data in

years prior to 2005 were Transport

Passenger Terminal Demand

E N P LA N E D A N D D E P LA N E D C A RG O ( 0 0 0 k g )


Actual 1990 152,000 67,000 108,000 327,000

1995 122,000 76,000 122,000 320,000

1996 116,000 91,000 129,000 336,000

1997 127,000 99,000 142,000 368,000

1998 111,000 83,000 174,000 368,000

1999 109,000 94,000 176,000 379,000

2000 101,000 93,000 173,000 367,000

2001 82,000 83,000 153,000 318,000

2002 80,000 73,000 156,000 309,000

2003 64,000 76,000 148,000 288,000

2004 55,000 86,000 156,000 297,0002005 114,000 199,000 162,000 475,000

2006 109,000 209,000 199,000 517,000

Forecast 2010 130,000 254,000 216,000 600,000

2015 150,000 311,000 273,000 734,000

2020 171,000 376,000 341,000 888,000

2025 193,000 451,000 419,000 1,063,000

2030 219,000 541,000 514,000 1,274,000

T A B LE 3 - 7



3.14

Canada estimates that included

cargo carried only on scheduled

and charter airlines. Since 2005,

the GTAA has developed methods

to capture regional/local cargo vol-

umes for both air freight and

truck freight, which were previ-

ously unaccounted for, and these

extra volumes have significantly bolstered the reported cargo fig-

ures. It is anticipated that the pro-

portion of long-haul cargo will

increase due to factors such as ris-

ing fuel costs, leading firms to

truck large volumes of short-haul

cargo. Considering the trend

toward increased global trade, the

air cargo growth rate could exceed

the GDP growth rate; though this

trend was noted, it was not incor-

porated into the cargo forecast.

In the domestic and transborder

sectors, there is a potential for car-

riers to transfer the transportation

of cargo from bellyholds to small

freighter aircraft due to the

increased use of RJs on many

routes, which do not have the

capacity to transit this cargo.

Toronto Pearson’s cargo market is

much stronger than data would

indicate. The region is comprised

of some of the world’s leading air-

eligible, producing companies that

require expedited transportation

to meet their regular shipping

requirements. Since the service

from Toronto Pearson to a num-

ber of transborder gateways is

frequent, it has more recently

attracted international freighter

operations and is expected to con-tinue to do so in the future. This

can only be seen as a positive step

in the increasingly fluid market.

Since cargo can be trucked hun-

dreds, sometimes thousands, of

miles to reach its gateway or des-

tination, the location of Toronto

Pearson is proving to be a key

consideration when carriers decide

where to fly, and the excellent

operating efficiencies and cargo

facilities at Toronto Pearson are

capable of responding to near-

and mid-term cargo market

opportunities.

A profile of a future planning day

for cargo movement numbers is

important in understanding the

potential for the Airport to expand.

Sample days from historical data are taken and specific growth rates

are applied out over the horizon of

this Master Plan. More detail can

be found in the Airside System

and Air Cargo chapters, Chapters

5 and 8 respectively.

3.3.8 Business/General AviationForecasts

Business aviation activity is

expected to continue to maintain

its presence at Toronto Pearson

with higher growth in corporate

operations offsetting declines in

government and private operators.

Transport Canada’s forecast

growth is fuelled by GDP and

Personal Disposable Income rates

of growth.

Business Aviation traffic is

expected to grow by one or two

per cent per year throughout the

forecast horizon.

While the use of very small aircraft

(Very Light Jets, or VLJ’s) as air

taxis by the corporate community

is not being considered at Toronto

Pearson, as the Airport is expected

to remain focused on air carrier

activity, some VLJ’s may operate in

the Toronto area to provide direct

non-stop service to smaller mar-

kets. VLJ’s and other small aircraft

operating at Toronto Pearson

would limit airside capacity due to

aircraft separation rules requiring

these aircraft to maintain increased

horizontal separation when arriv-

ing or departing after a larger air-

craft. The GTAA would, therefore,

not encourage such activity.

3 . 4 F O R E C A S T S F O R

FA C I L I T Y P L A N N I N G

Producing forecasts to understand

both the level of activity through

the Airport and the future strain

on facilities enables the GTAA to

assess when additional facilities

need to become available. Since it

takes time to plan, design, fund

and build these facilities, it isimportant to develop detailed

daily forecast flight schedules that

can be used in facility planning

simulation models well in advance

of the facility requirement.

Airside Demand



This section of the Plan provides

an overview of the development of

these forecasts. The requirements

resulting from the analyses of these

schedules can be seen in moredetail in the Airside System and

Passenger Terminals chapters,

Chapters 5 and 6.

3.4.1 Development of Schedulesof Activity

When future schedules of traffic

are produced, a number of input

factors are considered that break

the aggregate passenger forecast

down to the necessary level of

detail.

Beginning with the sector fore-

casts, the traffic is subdivided into

five domestic, seven transborder

and seven international zones, to

identify both the varying growth

rates and to account for the appro-

priate timing of flights at Toronto

Pearson. The zones are shown inFigures 3-9, 3-10 and 3-11.

These factors are considered on a

regional basis by sector: the num-

ber of passengers per flight on his-

toric routes, the mix of aircraft,

the market share for each airline,

the load factor and number of

seats per flight. The schedules of

activity are developed for a repre-

sentative summer and winter week and are disaggregated by flight

over the course of each day. Using

the annual forecasts provided by

Transport Canada, the same in-

dependent factors are derived for

forecast years.

In order to ensure that the fore-

casts are as useful as possible, it is

necessary to assess traffic levels on

each day of the week and inde-

pendently for each sector.

Generally, most domestic and

transborder traffic will be far moreconsistent in terms of frequency

throughout the week than interna-

tional, where increases are seen on

weekends as people choose to

travel for holiday purposes more

widely during that time.

Therefore, historical traffic is ana-

lyzed and forecasted on a daily

basis for each sector with the

number of arriving and departing passengers broken into short 15-

minute segments throughout the

day. Based on this history, future

activity schedules are developed

that incorporate traffic growth

patterns and regional differences,

as well as airline fleet plan

assumptions.

Following this analysis, schedules

were generated for passengers,

movements and seats for each

year and season throughout the

forecast horizon.

These schedules are then used in

simulations to determine future

facility congestion levels and thus

future facility requirements.

3.4.2 Industry PlanningStandards

Daily and hourly passenger and

movement volumes drive the main

requirements for facility planning.

Therefore, the forecasting of these

parameters is paramount in the



3.16

development of passenger and

aircraft-related facilities at the

Airport. A number of standards

relating to levels of activity exist

throughout the industry and these

are often used as a form of bench-

mark for planning. Planning day standards are used to estimate traf-

fic levels through a period of time,

perhaps a week or an hour, with

an understanding that the Airport

can operate at that level of activity.

Moreover, peak standards are set

to reflect the variability of activity

levels across a planning day and

help to determine when passenger

and aircraft peaks will occur. It

also sets a level of expectation that

the Airport can accommodatesuch levels of activity with accept-

able delays during absolute peaks

(100th percentile periods). There

are five main peak standards that

are used as benchmarks around

the world at airports:

• The absolute peak

• The average day of the busiest

month

• The average of the seven busiest

days of the three busiest months

• The 90th percentile of daily

traffic• The 95th percentile of days.

These metrics are used by differ-

ent organizations when planning

for future levels of activity.

Transport Canada, for example,

adopts the 90th percentile of daily



traffic for aircraft activity whereas

the International Civil Aviation

Organization (ICAO) adopts the

average of the seven busiest days

of the three busiest months.

These standards have been

expanded to peak hour planning.

In this case, instead of days, hours

are used for comparison, over a

given period of time.

When calculating planning days, it

is important to understand which

industry standards are being met,

which are realistic as a benchmark,

and which should be viewed as a

future target for the Airport.

An independent study was under-

taken by Moncrieff Management

Ltd. to validate the suggested stan-

dards for Toronto Pearson. The

assessment of Toronto Pearson’s

traffic by sector and season for pas-

senger planning standards, aircraft

planning standards and peak hourtraffic analysis concluded that

GTAA methods for developing a

summer and winter week forecast

for each year represented a reason-

able planning standard – not the

absolute peak, but sufficiently high

levels of activity.

3.4.3 Seasonal Variationsand Peaks

In addition to forecasting the

annual traffic levels, the planning

of facilities requires that seasonal

and daily variations in traffic levels

are considered. The summer

months of July and August have

traditionally been the busiest

months at Toronto Pearson, aspassenger traffic is buoyed by

vacationers to and within Canada

and to Europe. During the winter,

the peak months of February and

March are affected by vacationers

travelling to sunspot destinations



3.18

(see Figure 3-12). Since 9/11,

some of the U.S.-bound holiday

traffic has shifted to other southern

destinations. The degree to which

that traffic returns to the U.S.

depends on U.S.-World relations

and relative costs of holidays.

Passenger volumes also vary by

day of the week. While business

travellers typically travel on week-

days, leisure travel itineraries usu-

ally include weekends. As shown

in Figures 3-13 and 3-14, the traf-

fic peaks on Fridays when both

groups overlap. During the sum-

mer, the vacationing passengers

boost traffic levels throughout the week. In the winter months, vaca-

tioning travellers increase weekend

distribution, with international

and transborder sunspot travel

raising the Saturday and Sunday

traffic levels to the equivalent of

the Friday level, but with signifi-

cantly different sector splits.

The analysis of these traffic

patterns is important, as airport

facilities must be designed to

handle busy traffic periods.

3.4.4 Passenger Planning Levels

The standards mentioned above

allow the Airport to set goals and

target levels of activity across a

season, by sector and direction.

Linking directly with the planning day schedules produced, total pas-

sengers and movements are calcu-

lated for each day of the week.

Tables 3-8 and 3-9 summarize the

peak day levels of activity for pas-

sengers for summer and winter

Holiday Season Demand

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFeb


Traffic by Month, 2006

F I G U RE 3 - 12

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

SunSatFriThuWedTueMon

Daily Variations, Summer 2006

FIGURE 3-13

D om es ti c T ra ns bo rd er I nt er na ti on al A ll S ec to rs

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

SunSatFriThuWedTueMon

Daily Variations, Winter 2006

FIGURE 3-14

Domesti c T ra nsbo rder I nterna ti on al A ll S ec to rs



respectively for 2005, 2015, 2020,

2025 and 2030.

Also shown in Table 3-10 are the

peak hour traffic levels for selected

sector and season combinations.

3.4.5 Aircraft MovementPlanning Levels

Peak day and hour traffic analysis

is performed in much the same

way for aircraft movements. The

totals for the planning day and

peak hour activity are presented in

Tables 3-11 and 3-12 for summer

and winter respectively for 2005,

2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.

Also shown in Table 3-13 are

selected peak hour traffic levels.

For a complete picture, in Table

3-14 is the Business Aviation peak

hour traffic levels.

3 . 5 F O R E C A S T

I M P L I C A T I O N S

With over 50 million E&D pas-

sengers and 637,000 aircraft

movements projected by the year

2020, evaluation of Toronto

Pearson’s airside, terminal and

supporting infrastructure will be

required to assess whether the

Airport has sufficient capacity to

meet the future aviation demands

of the region at reasonable levelsof service. Once Toronto Pearson

reaches capacity, other regional

airports must have capacity in

place to handle any spillover from

Toronto Pearson; otherwise sig-

nificant delays will occur and the

P E A K H O U R P A S S E N G E R T RA F F I C LE V E LS

Season Sector Direction 2005 2015 2020 2025 2030

Summer Domestic A 2,300 2,300 2,800 3,600 3,700

D 2,000 2,900 3,100 3,400 3,700

International A 2,600 3,700 3,800 5,200 5,900

D 2,600 3,600 3,900 4,100 5,100

Winter Transborder A 1,900 2,500 2,800 3,300 3,600

D 1,600 2,300 2,700 3,200 3,400

TABLE 3-10

W I N T E R P E A K D A Y P A S S E N G E R T RA F F I C


A D A D A D

2005 16,500 16,500 13,500 13,500 13,000 13,500

2015 21,000 20,500 21,500 21,000 21,000 20,000

2020 23,500 23,000 26,000 25,500 24,000 24,500

2025 26,000 25,500 29,500 29,000 29,000 29,000

2030 28,500 27,500 33,500 32,500 33,500 33,000

T A B LE 3 - 9

S U M M E R P E A K D A Y P A S S E N G E R T RA F F I C


A D A D A D

2005 21,500 22,000 14,000 14,000 16,000 17,000

2015 27,000 27,500 22,000 22,000 26,000 25,500

2020 30,500 31,000 26,500 26,500 31,500 32,000

2025 33,500 34,500 30,500 30,500 36,500 37,5002030 37,000 37,500 34,000 34,500 43,500 45,000

T A B LE 3 - 8

S U M M E R P E A K D A Y A I RC RA F T M O V E M E N T S


A D A D A D

2005 240 240 255 260 85 90

2015 310 315 365 365 145 145

2020 345 350 420 430 175 175

2025 385 390 475 485 205 210

2030 415 415 530 530 245 250

TABLE 3-11

W I N T E R P E A K D A Y A I RC RA F T M O V E M E N T S


A D A D A D2005 205 200 255 255 80 85

2015 255 250 340 340 110 110

2020 250 240 390 390 130 130

2025 315 310 445 445 155 160

2030 340 330 475 480 195 190

TABLE 3-12


21/21

3.20

airport system will not be able to

effectively support the GTA.

3.5.1 Utilization of Facilities

Once schedules are produced, it is

necessary to assess the efficiencies

of the airport operation. Such effi-

ciencies could occur from a num-

ber of different sources:

• The time taken for a passenger

to navigate check-in

• Pre-Board Screening (PBS)

• U.S. Customs and Border

Protection

• Canadian Border Services

• Other facilities to reach the gate

• Length of time an aircraft spends

on a gate

• Size of gate or whether there are

adjacency rules.

Some of these facilities are dis-

cussed in Chapter 6 – Passenger

Terminals.

As Toronto Pearson looks to

become the most efficient facility

and a gateway of choice to the

North American market and

beyond, such evaluation is per-

tinent to attracting airlines to

use Toronto Pearson in their

long-term objectives.

Reference: Transport Canada,

General Forecast Update, 2006/07.

Transport Canada makes no war-

ranties, guarantees or representa-

tions, expressed or implied.

P E A K H O U R A I RC RA F T M O V E M E N T T RA F F I C LE V E LS

Season Sector Direction 2005 2015 2020 2025 2030

Summer Domestic A 23 29 33 40 43

D 21 33 35 38 50

International A 13 21 24 29 32

D 14 19 20 22 25

Winter Transborder A 34 37 44 51 55D 29 32 39 45 45

TABLE 3-13

P E A K H O U R B U S I N E S S A V I A T I O N T RA F F I C LE V E LS

Season Sector Direction Volume

Summer Domestic A 76

D 103

International A 20

D 12

Winter Transborder A 87

D 89

TABLE 3-14

Documents

MP - Chapter 3 - Aviation Activity and Forecasts(2).pdf