Chapter 2: Aviation Demand Forecasts · Chapter 2: Aviation Demand Forecasts 2.0 Forecast Summary . Over the next 20 years, the face of commercial operations at EWN will change as

A v i a t i o n D e m a n d F o r e c a s t s

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Chapter 2: Aviation Demand Forecasts

2.0 Forecast Summary

Over the next 20 years, the face of commercial operations at EWN will change as the airlines retire smaller aircraft and transition to larger air carrier aircraft. The challenge for the New Bern MSA is to fill these larger aircraft so that the airlines do not reduce flight frequencies. If successful in filling the seats, the additional capacity brought about by larger aircraft will help grow passenger enplanement and commercial operations at EWN into the future. Forecasts for general aviation activity at EWN can expect slow but sustained growth for operations and based aircraft. Future growth is closely tied to the economic success of the community, including the military presence and growth in local manufacturing and health care. Socioeconomic projections produced by the state and others show that the New Bern MSA will continue to add jobs and the economy will diversify. Population centers such as New Bern and Havelock will grow, albeit at a slow pace.

Figure 2-1: Forecast Summary

Category 2016 2036 CAGR

ENPLANEMENTS 105,440 198,900 3.2%

AIR CARGO (TONS) 2,034 2,800 1.6%

AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS 33,676 46,100 1.6%

Itinerant Operations

Air Carrier 192 7,000 19.7%

Commuter/Air Taxi 6,274 2,200 -5.1%

General Aviation 15,045 21,600 1.8%

Military 558 600 0.0%

Local GA Operations

General Aviation 10,693 13,800 1.3%

Military 914 900 0.0%

BASED AIRCRAFT 83 94 0.6%

Single-Engine Piston 72 65 -0.5%

Multi-Engine Piston 3 3 0.0%

Jet/Turbo Prop 3 11 6.7%

Helicopter 2 7 6.5%

Light Sport / Experimental 3 8 5.0%

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016 Enplanements and Based Aircraft: Airport Management 2016 Operations: Airport Traffic Control Tower Records 2036: Preferred Aviation Forecast


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2.1 Introduction to Aviation Forecasts

Aviation activity forecasts evaluates the future demand at EWN. This chapter forecasts the following activities: passenger enplanements, cargo volume, based aircraft and aircraft operations (local and itinerant). The forecasts have a base year of 2016, and use the FAA fiscal year (October to September). The forecast period is 20 years, with five-year reporting intervals. Several forecasting methodologies are applied to each activity, and are compared with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF).

Aviation activity forecasts are used to determine facility requirements, an assessment of what facilities the airport has compared to what facilities the airport needs in the future. These forecasts are reviewed and are to be formally approved by the FAA Memphis Airports District Office (ADO) with respect to their rational and concurrence with FAA forecasting.

The chapter is organized in the following sections:

2. Community Profile 3. Aviation Activity Profile 4. Scheduled Service Forecasts 5. General Aviation Forecasts 6. Peaking and Critical Aircraft 7. Forecast Summary

Data sources used in this chapter are described in Figure 2-2.

TERMINOLOGY Aircraft Operation: A count of a takeoff, landing, or touch-and-go. Each time an aircraft touches the runway to takeoff or land, it counts as an operation. Airport Reference Code: Used to determine facility size and setback requirements. The airport reference code is a composite of the approach category and design group of the critical aircraft. Approach Category: Classification of an aircraft by approach speed, with “A” being the slowest and “E” being the fastest. Based Aircraft: Aircraft that are stored at EWN. These aircraft may be stored full-time, or seasonally. Critical Aircraft: The most demanding aircraft (in terms of size and/or speed) to use an airport over 500 times a year, or have scheduled operations at an airport. Design Group: Classification of an aircraft by its size (wingspan and tail height) with “I” being the smallest and “VI” being the largest. Enplanement: The act of a passenger boarding a scheduled or charter aircraft with more than nine seats, operating under FAR Part 121 or Part 135 regulations. General Aviation (GA): Aviation activities conducted by recreational, business, and charter users not operating as airlines under FAR Part 121, Part 135, or military regulations. Itinerant Operation: An operation that originates and terminates at different airports. An example is an aircraft flying from EWN to another airport. Local Operation: An operation that originates and terminates at the same airport. An example is an aircraft taking off from EWN, remaining near the airport to practice flight maneuvers, and then landing at EWN. Touch-and-Go: A maneuver where an aircraft lands and takes off without leaving the runway. A touch-and-go counts as two aircraft operations.


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Figure 2-2: Description of Data Sources

SOURCE DESCRIPTION

FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)

The FAA TAF, published in January 2017, provides historical records and forecasts for passenger enplanements, aircraft operations and based aircraft at EWN. These forecasts serve as a comparison for forecasts prepared as part of this planning effort, and provide historical information on aircraft activity.

FAA Aerospace Forecast

The Aerospace Forecast 2016-2036 is a national-level forecast of aviation activity. The Aerospace Forecast helps guide local forecasts by serving as a point of comparison between local trends and national trends.

FAA Traffic Flow Management System Counts Data (TFMSC)

The TFMSC includes data collected from flight plans. These operations are categorized by aircraft type, and used to identify trends in the EWN fleet mix. The advantage of the TFMSC data is that it is detailed, and provides insight into the itinerant users of EWN. A disadvantage of TFMSC data is that it does not include local operations, and operations that did not file a flight plan. As such, the utility of TFMSC data is limited to larger aircraft, including scheduled commercial passenger, cargo, and charter operators, and private business jets.

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) T-100 Database

The T-100 form is filled out by scheduled and charter passenger airlines, and air cargo airlines on a monthly basis. The T-100 database is an online repository of the data provided on the forms, and includes information such as number of seats sold, number of seats available, freight transported, aircraft used, and departures performed. The T-100 provides a detailed look at the operations of passenger and cargo airlines.

Airline Ticket Data

Airline ticket data was used to identify the catchment area and fare trends at EWN. Two sources were used: the Airline Reporting Corporation (ARC) and Market Information Data Tapes. These sources provide insight on the zip codes (based on billing information) that travelers came from, which defines the catchment area. This information was then used to see where else travelers in the catchment area fly from, and determine how many potential EWN passengers chose to fly from other airports.

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Figure 2-2: Description of Data Sources – Continued

SOURCE DESCRIPTION

Socioeconomic Data

Socioeconomic data is provided by data vendor Woods & Poole, Inc. (W&P), the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM), and the City of New Bern. W&P provides data for gap years in the U.S. Census. The dataset considers the New Bern Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), and provides 124 data categories with records from 1970 to 2016, and forecast through 2040. Data categories considered include population, employment, earnings and income, and gross regional product. OSBM provides population projections through 2036 at the County level. The New Bern MSA is made up of Craven, Jones, and Pamlico counties in their entirety. The City of New Bern provides data on population and economic activity within the City limits. The most recent City of New Bern comprehensive plan was updated in 2004 and was not used due to its age. The New Bern, River Bend and Trend Woods Regional Land Use Plan was completed in 2010 and was consulted for local growth trends.

Stakeholder Interviews

Data was collected firsthand from airport stakeholders and community members during a series of interviews conducted December 2 and 3, 2016. Interviews were performed with representatives from the following groups

Airport Management American Airlines City of Havelock City of New Bern Delta Air Lines Coastal Carolina Airport Authority Craven County Economic Development FedEx Express Hatteras Yachts

MCAS Cherry Point New Bern Chamber of Commerce New Bern Community Development New Bern Riverfront Convention Center RVA (Air Traffic Control) Tidewater Aviation (FBO) Tradewind Aviation (Flight School)

U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)

DoD websites were used to obtain information about the three closest military facilities to EWN: Camp Lejeune, MCAS Cherry Point, and MCAS New River. Information of interest was what types of aerial units were stationed at the two MCASs and the overall populations of the three bases. This information was supplemented by stakeholder interviews.

U.S. General Services Administration (GSA)

The GSA provides data on government spending. There are several military facilities near EWN that generate travel to and from the area. GSA maintains records on DoD travel spending and has data on the number of tickets expected to be used by DoD staff out of New Bern.


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2.2 Community Profile

The community profile shows where EWN is located, and describes the community it serves.

EWN serves the City of New Bern, which is in Craven County, North Carolina. Craven County is part of the New Bern Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which includes Jones County to the southwest and Pamlico County to the east. The New Bern MSA is located near the Outer Banks Island chain on the east side of the state, which is a popular recreational destination. New Bern is the most populous city in the county, followed by the City of Havelock to the southeast.

Other regional commercial service airports in the area include Pitt-Greenville Airport (PGV) in Greenville and Albert J. Ellis Airport (OAJ) in Jacksonville, and Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU). PGV is 50 miles north, OAJ is 50 miles southwest, and RDU is 130 miles west. EWN is 215 miles west of the state’s primary commercial service airport in Charlotte.


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2.2.1 Population

The New Bern MSA has experienced near flat population over the past ten years, and has not been as impacted by population emigration to larger cities as other smaller communities in North Carolina have been since the 2009 Recession. As shown in Figure 2-3, over 80 percent of the MSA population lives in Craven County, and 23 percent of the MSA population lives in the City of New Bern. There are no other large urban areas in the MSA outside of New Bern and Havelock. Population declines in Havelock, Trent Woods, and River Bend have occurred largely due to economic circumstances; however, the outmigration trend is stabilizing and the communities were stable from 2009 to 2015. Population in the MSA has remained flat over the past ten years.

The 2016 Office of State Budget Management (OSBM) Population Forecast for the New Bern MSA, shown in Figure 2-4, shows a very slight decline of -0.1 percent per year expected through 2036. OSBM forecasts are based on data collected from state, county, and local government, and the military. The modest decline is likely due to historical trends, which influence OSBM projections.

For purposes of comparison, population projections by Woods & Poole (W&P) are presented. W&P projections have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7 percent, and a net gain of 24,257 people. To put the W&P forecasts in perspective, OSBM expects that the state will grow at one percent per year through 2036. The difference between the two projections is whether the New Bern MSA will grow as it has in the past, or if it will grow faster as new industry appears.

Figure 2-3: 2015 Regional Population Distribution

Area 2015 Population 2005-2015 Growth

Craven County 103,691 -0.1%

New Bern 29,823 1.0%

Havelock 20,328 -2.0%

Trent Woods 4,029 -3.0%

River Bend 3,060 -1.8%

Rest of County 46,448 0.1%

Jones County 10,423 2.8%

Pamlico County 13,174 0.2%

New Bern MSA 127,288 0.0%

Source: OSBM

Figure 2-4: New Bern MSA Population

Projection

Year OSBM Population

W&P Population

2006 119,594 2011 127,342 2016 126,932 2021 125,362 135,878 2026 124,664 141,175 2031 124,174 146,444 2036 124,045 151,189

CAGR -0.1% 0.7%

Source: OSBM, forecast date October 2016 CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate (2016-2036)


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The following section describes the local economy, and discusses what activities and changes to local industry could drive population growth to resemble the OSBM forecast or the W&P forecast. Through interviews conducted, local economic development bodies believe that population will maintain at existing levels, and a growth spurt is not expected. Therefore, the OSBM forecast will be used to project future aviation activity. 2.2.2 Employment and Economic Development Aviation activity is inextricably linked to economic activity. Commerce moves people and products in and out of a community. Success of local businesses will drive aviation activity into the future for both general and commercial aviation. Major employers were interviewed during the data collection phase of the inventory, and highlights are summarized herein, and total MSA Employment is shown in Figure 2-5, and top industries are shown in Figure 2-6. Table 2-5 shows the W&P forecast for industry growth through 2036.

Major Employers: • German appliance manufacturer BSH (Bosch) has manufacturing, and research and development

facilities in New Bern. They move employees and freight in and out of the area. • American plumbing fixture manufacturer Moen Faucets has their manufacturing headquarters in

New Bern. Like BSH, Moen employees and freight contribute to the airport’s numbers. • American boat builder Hatteras Yachts has 550 local employees, and is looking to add 300 more

in the coming years. Customers occasionally use General Aviation to fly in and out during the design and build of their boat, and Hatteras sales and mechanical staff travel frequently.

• The healthcare industry, including the local hospital, is a major regional employer with primary facilities in New Bern. A new cancer center is coming to the local hospital which will add high wage jobs, and increase travel to the region for treatment. Healthcare professions own some of the aircraft based at EWN, and travel commercially for business and leisure. Medical supplies are often shipped by air freight.

• Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Cherry Point has nearly 14,000 military and civilian employees, located in Havelock with a total Base population of 53,000. MCAS Cherry Point host the U.S. Navy’s Facility Readiness Center (FRC) East, which repairs and maintains equipment for the Marines and Navy across the country. Economic development estimates that 35,000 of people, including dependents and spouses, live in Craven County because of the MCAS and FRC. GSA

Figure 2-5: MSA Employment

Year Total Employment Jobs per Capita

2006 40,055 0.33

2011 58,226 0.46

2016 68,314 0.54

2021 67,565 0.54

2026 70,993 0.57

2031 73,802 0.59

2036 40,055 0.60

CAGR 0.4% 0.5%

Jobs per Capita = Total Employment / Total Population Sources: Employment: Woods & Poole, Population: OSBM


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records for FY2017 show over 9,000 tickets for DoD personnel were allocated to departures from EWN. This accounts for nearly 10 percent of annual passenger enplanements.

Jobs per capita shows that total employment has been growing at a faster rate than total population, suggesting that people are moving to the New Bern MSA for work, and the slight population decline does not indicate that jobs are leaving the community. It is expected that this trend will continue.

D R A F T A v i a t i o n D e m a n d F o r e c a s t s

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Figure 2-6: Top 5 Industries by Employment and Sales 2006 – 2016

Top Industries by Employment

Rank 2006 2011 2016

Industry Jobs Industry Jobs ∆ Industry Jobs ∆ 1 Federal (Military) 9,030 Federal (Military) 9,726 7.7% Federal (Military) 9,484 -2.5% 2 State & Local Gov. 8,709 State & Local Gov. 8,620 -1.0% State & Local Gov. 8,640 0.2% 3 Retail Trade 6,414 Retail Trade 6,197 -3.4% Retail Trade 6,658 7.4% 4 Federal (Civilian) 5,972 Health Care 5,774 -3.3% Health Care 6,564 13.7% 5 Health Care 5,657 Federal (Civilian) 5,773 2.1% Federal (Civilian) 5,453 -5.5%

Top Industries by Retail Sales

Rank 2006 2011 2016

Industry Sales ($M) Industry Sales ($M) ∆ Industry Sales($M) ∆ 1 Motor Vehicles $371.2 Motor Vehicles $348.5 -6.1% Motor Vehicles $437.2 25.5% 2 Gen. Merchandise $201.2 Gasoline Stations $244.8 21.7% Gasoline Stations $240.3 -1.8% 3 Gasoline Stations $198.9 Gen. Merchandise $215.3 8.2% Gen. Merchandise $220.0 2.2% 4 F&B Retail $164.9 F&B Retail $181.7 10.2% F&B Retail $188.8 3.9% 5 Building Materials $151.5 Restaurants $149.8 -1.1% Restaurants $165.8 10.7%

∆ = Total percent change from period before (5 years). Retail Sales presented in millions of inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars. F&B Retail = Food and Beverage Retail (e.g. grocery stores). Gen. Merchandise: = General Merchandise is a wide array of retail except for food and beverage (e.g. clothing, hardware, etc.). Source: Woods & Poole, 2016.

Figure 2-6 shows the impact of the 2009 recession on employment levels and retail sales on the New Bern MSA economy. Federal (Military) and State and Local Government employment were not as sensitive to the recession and remained relatively stable throughout the ten-year period. Employees were not added or lost in large numbers. Healthcare employment, due to the growth of the local hospital, saw a rise over the ten-year period. The change in total healthcare employment has caused some reshuffling of the top industries by employment over the past ten years. More health care workers are coming to the New Bern MSA, which is moving other industries, like

Federal (Civilian) employment down the list despite maintaining roughly the same number of total employees. As shown in Figure 2-4, total population of the New Bern MSA has grown between 2006 and 2016, which considering the recession, has helped grow overall retail sales. Motor vehicles exhibited some post-recession volatility as some consumers put off large purchases until the economy improved. Overall retail purchase, both Food and Beverage and General Merchandise, have exhibited growth from 2006 to 2016 as the population of the MSA has grown. Total retail sales for the New Bern MSA have grown by an average annual rate of 1.3 percent from 2006 to 2016 from $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion in inflation adjusted 2016 dollars. Growth in retail


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sales has exceeded population growth, showing that consumers in the New Bern MSA have increased their spending power.


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Figure 2-7 Top 5 Industries by Employment and Sales 2016 - 2036

Top Industries by Employment

Rank 2016 2026 2036

Industry Jobs Industry Jobs ∆ Industry Jobs ∆ 1 Federal (Military) 9,484 Federal (Military) 9,539 0.6% Federal (Military) 9,597 0.6% 2 State & Local Gov. 8,640 State and Local Gov. 8,920 3.2% Health Care 9,354 17.6% 3 Retail Trade 6,658 Health Care 7,951 21.1% State and Local Gov. 8,747 -1.9% 4 Health Care 6,564 Retail Trade 7,158 7.5% Retail Trade 7,565 5.7% 5 Federal (Civilian) 5,453 Federal (Civilian) 5.502 0.9% Accom.+Food Serv. 6,060 14.5%

Top Industries by Retail Sales

Rank 2016 2026 2036

Industry Sales ($M) Industry Sales ($M) ∆ Industry Sales($M) ∆ 1 Motor Vehicles $437.2 Motor Vehicles $575.4 31.6% Motor Vehicles $611.0 6.2% 2 Gasoline Stations $240.3 Gasoline Stations $311.3 29.5% General Merchandise $351.1 16.9% 3 Gen. Merchandise $220.0 Gen. Merchandise $300.2 36.5% Gasoline Stations $349.8 12.4% 4 F&B Retail $188.8 F&B Retail $228.5 21.0% Restaurants $270.4 18.9% 5 Restaurants $165.8 Restaurants $227.4 37.1% F&B Retail $237.8 4.1%

∆ = Total percent change from period before (10 years). Retail Sales presented in millions of inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars. F&B Retail = Food and Beverage Retail (e.g. grocery stores). Accom.+ Food Serv. = Accommodation and Food Services (e.g. hotels). Source: Woods & Poole

Employment projections for the MSA are generally positive. Healthcare is expected to continue growing, projecting double digit percentage growth every ten years, becoming the second largest industry in terms of employment over the next 20 years. Federal (Military) employment will remain the top industry in terms of employment, but is not expected to exhibit dramatic growth. One factor that could change the growth in Federal (Military) employment is whether the F-35 program is located at MCAS Cherry Point. It is expected that if this program moves to the area, it will grow employment

on the MCAS, and around the MCAS through civilian contractors and suppliers. There is little change in the top five industries by retail sales ranking over the next 20 years, and all the top five are expected to exhibit strong growth. Total retail sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.2 percent from $1.5 billion in 2016 to $1.9 billion in 2036, in inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars. Growth in retail sales is expected to continue to outpace growth in population, as the local economy is expected to add jobs, particularly in the high wage healthcare field. Engineering and technical manufacturing jobs associated with


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contractors for the F-35 program, should it locate at MCAS Cherry Point, will continue this trend.


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2.2.3 Gross Product

Gross regional product (GRP) is the value of goods and services produced in the New Bern MSA, and GRP serves as an index for the health of the overall economy. Figure 2-8 shows the GRP of New Bern MSA over the past ten years.

GRP is driven by major industries in the MSA, including Moen Faucets, BSH, and Hatteras Yachts. The federal, state, and local government, particularly through expenditures at MCAS Cherry Point, is the single largest driver of the local economy. A 2015 study released by MCAS Cherry Point put the base’s overall economic impact at two billion dollars, with $1.2 billion in salaries and $800 million in other expenditures such as procurement of goods and services for the base, its staff, and eligible dependents.

W&P forecasts for GRP growth expect another $2.3 billion in over the next 20 years. As shown by other economic indicators, the rate of job growth is expected to exceed the rate of population growth, which implies that new residents to the New Bern MSA will be working. This will increase overall production, which will cause growth in GRP. GRP forecasts are shown in Figure 2-9.

Figure 2-8: New Bern MSA GRP

Year GRP ($M) Percent Change

2006 $5,672

2007 $5,790 2.1%

2008 $5,910 2.1%

2009 $6,032 2.1%

2010 $6,157 2.1%

2011 $5,989 -2.7%

2012 $6,045 0.9%

2013 $5,903 -2.3%

2014 $6,020 2.0%

2015 $6,130 1.8%

2016 $6,240 1.8%

CAGR 1.0%

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. GRP in inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars Source: Woods & Poole.

Figure 2-9 New Bern MSA GRP Forecast Year GRP ($M)

2016 $6,240 2016 $6,240 2021 $6,792 2026 $7,356 2031 $7,937 2036 $8,511

CAGR 1.6%

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. GRP in inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars. Source: Woods & Poole.


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2.3 Military

The military presence in and around the New Bern MSA has a profound impact on the economy and the airport. Military personnel and contractors fly in and out of EWN; FedEx Express serves the three nearby bases from EWN; and approach and departure control in and out of the airport is handled by military air traffic controllers. Military aircraft, both fixed wing and helicopters, occasionally operate at EWN, and 80 percent of the students that learn to fly at the on-airport flight school are active and retired military. The City of Havelock is heavily dependent on MCAS Cherry Point and while the City of New Bern has a more diverse industry base, many residents and local businesses are directly and indirectly dependent on the base.

In addition to MCAS Cherry Point, MCAS New River is located 30 nautical miles south of New Bern, near the City of Jacksonville. Camp Lejeune, another U.S. Marine Corps base is also located near Jacksonville. Jacksonville’s Airport, OAJ, handles much of the commercial activity associated with MCAS New River and Camp Lejeune; however, FedEx Express serves these two bases via truck from EWN. The impact of the military on commercial operations at EWN is estimated using ticket purchase agreements between the DoD and the airlines, as reported by GSA. For FY2017, GSA reports that the DoD has contracted with American Airlines for 7,964 tickets originating from EWN, and with Delta Air Lines for 1,240 tickets. These tickets are primarily for destinations in the U.S.; however, there are arrangements for 122 departures destined to Japan. Comparatively, OAJ has arrangements for 27,594 departures due to the larger military presence near that airport. MCAS Cherry Point has served as a stable source of local employment, and passenger enplanements and air freight over the past ten years. There is always the risk of Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) shutting the base down and moving the units elsewhere; however, local stakeholders have indicated that the risk of this happening is slim. The MCAS has plans to continue operating as it has in the past; however, a major change that could occur in the near-term hinges on a decision by the DoD on where to base units that are part of the U.S. Marine Corps F-35 aircraft program. The F-35 is slated to replace the F/A-18 Hornet and AV-8B Harrier for the Marine Corps. MCAS Cherry Point is under consideration for the F-35 program and it is expected that should the program locate there, it will create a wave of ancillary economic impacts throughout the New Bern MSA. Lockheed Martin, the F-35’s designer, claims that the program already provides the state of North Carolina with 1,220 jobs and $103 million in annual economic impact through suppliers to the program. The F-35 is built with the latest computer and engine technology, and will require many civilian contractors to support and maintain the aircraft as they enter service.


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2.4 Aviation Activity Profile

The aviation activity profile is the baseline behind the forecasts. Combined with the community profile in Section 2, it explains the numbers. Furthermore, the aviation activity profile showcases trends in aviation activity at EWN and provides narrative that explains how and why changes have occurred. Information is included from sources such as the FAA, airport management, the ATCT, airport tenants, and local business owners that use the airport. This section is organized as follows.

• Airline Service (Passenger and Cargo)

• General Aviation

• Military

• FAA Terminal Area Forecast

2.4.1 Airline Service

Air service includes scheduled and charter passenger airlines, and air cargo operators. It does not include aircraft that transport passengers classified as general aviation, such as corporate jets, and pilots flying friends and family from place to place. Most airline service at EWN is scheduled; however, the airport sees occasional service by charter airlines that provide air service for large groups.

2.4.2 Airline Profile

EWN has two scheduled passenger airlines: American Airlines and Delta Air Lines. In 2016, American carried 75 percent of passengers and Delta carried 25 percent. EWN has nonstop service to two destinations: Charlotte-Douglas International (CLT) on American and Atlanta Hartsfield International (ATL) on Delta. These airports are hubs for their respective airlines and put passengers flying from EWN within one stop of most major cities in North America, South America, Europe, and some major cities in Asia and Africa. Sixty-three percent of EWN’s service was on turboprop aircraft like the Dash 8-100/300 and 37 percent was on regional jet aircraft like the CRJ-200/700 in 2016.

American offers five to six departures per day using turboprop and small regional jets. The carrier is looking to transition to an all jet fleet over the next five years, and the trend is for larger regional jets (CRJ-700) to replace those with 50 seats or less (CRJ-200). Notably, American is running relatively high load factors in the low to mid-80 percent range that allows additional flexibility for more seats in the market. Delta offers one to two departures per day depending on the day of the week. Delta’s load factors have slightly outperformed American and continue to reach above the low to mid-80s during peak travel periods. Two daily departures are generally considered to be the minimum number for viable air service as anything less severely limits passenger choice and may drive them to use a different airline or different


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airport. Delta operates 50-seat CRJ-200 aircraft between EWN and their ATL hub; however, the carrier is retiring these aircraft and replacing them with aircraft that have more seats.

2.4.3 Passenger Enplanements and Airline Operations

Passenger enplanements are counts of passengers who board a scheduled commercial and charter aircraft with more than nine seats for turboprops (or any number of seats for jet aircraft), and operating under the rules of Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 121. Passengers on aircraft operated under the rules of 14 CFR Part 91 and 14 CFR Part 135 are not counted towards passenger enplanements. Passengers enplanements include revenue and non-revenue passengers who paid taxes and facility charges for their carriage, but do not include pilots, flight attendants, and other members of airline crew.

Passenger enplanements are classified by the role of the air carrier carrying passengers. Air carrier enplanements are those that occur on large carriers, such as American and Delta. Air Taxi / Commuter enplanements are those that occur on feeder carriers that operate on a contract basis with the air carriers. These include Piedmont Airlines, Atlantic Southeast Airlines, and Air Wisconsin. Outside of fewer than 1,000 exceptions over the past ten years, passengers flying out of EWN have been classified as Air Taxi / Commuter enplanements. 2.4.4 History

Passenger enplanements at EWN have exhibited an overall growth trend over the past ten years despite decline from 2012 to 2016. Recovery after the 2009 Recession was initially strong, but eventually slowed and began to decline due to the airlines changing their schedules and making it less convenient for passengers to fly from EWN. Passenger enplanements are shown in Figure 2-10.

Figure 2-10: Passenger Enplanements Fiscal Year

Air Carrier Air Taxi/Commuter Total Percent Change

2006 162 84,502 84,664 2007 178 97,820 97,998 15.7% 2008 5 112,468 112,473 14.8% 2009 110,638 110,638 -1.6% 2010 160 123,604 123,764 11.9% 2011 320 124,311 124,631 0.7% 2012 125,970 125,970 1.1% 2013 122,823 122,823 -2.5% 2014 118,768 118,768 -3.3% 2015 111,150 111,150 -6.4% 2016 105,440 105,440 -5.1% CAGR N/A 2.2% 2.2%

Sources: 2006-2015 FAA 2016 TAF, 2016 Airport Management Records


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Changes in flight frequency have been brought about by airlines increasing the number of seats on aircraft, crew and equipment shortages limiting what routes can be served, and average yield on a route incentivizing airlines to add or reduce service. More seats per departure means that the same number of customers can be served on fewer flights. Cost per available seat mile (CASM), a commonly used airline metric to evaluate route performance, is typically lower on a larger aircraft if the stage length is appropriate for the aircraft’s design. While fewer departures can save money for airlines and help certain markets retain air service, it reduces passenger choice and can cause leakage to other airports. Airline aircraft operations are categorized as either air carrier or air taxi. Operation categorization is based on aircraft seating capacity, regardless of whether a mainline carrier or a feeder carrier operates the route. The point of distinction is 60 passenger seats. Aircraft such as American’s CRJ-700 count as Air Carrier operations, and Delta’s CRJ-200 and American’s Dash-8 count as Air Taxi operations. Flight frequency history for the Part 121 passenger carriers is shown in Figure 2-11. Air cargo and Part 135 air taxi operations are included in later sections. Figure 2-11: Part 121 Passenger Airline Operations

Fiscal Year Air Carrier Air Taxi Total % Change

Avg. Seats per

Operation 2006 316 4,300 4,616 50 2007 484 5,511 5,995 29.9% 49 2008 564 6,338 6,902 15.1% 51 2009 560 6,213 6,773 -1.9% 51 2010 360 6,136 6,496 -4.1% 51 2011 192 6,360 6,552 0.9% 52 2012 108 6,908 7,016 7.1% 50 2013 34 6,776 6,810 -2.9% 49 2014 22 6,164 6,186 -9.2% 49 2015 54 5,282 5,336 -13.7% 49 2016 192 5,236 5,428 1.7% 50 CAGR -4.9% 2.0% 1.6%

Sources: 2006-2015 USDOT T-100 Database, 2016 FAA TFMSC

Over the past ten years, EWN saw operations grow quickly until the decline triggered by high oil prices and the 2009 recession. The effect of airlines reducing frequency is most pronounced in 2014 and 2015. Carriers have reduced seating capacity to EWN, and routes are primarily operated by aircraft with fewer than 60 seats. While this has helped maintain frequencies in the near-term, the trend with the airlines is to retire aircraft with 60 or fewer seats. As these aircraft are phased out, the EWN market must be able to fill the larger replacement aircraft to avoid the airlines cutting frequencies to achieve desired average yields and load factors.


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2.4.5 Load Factor

Load factors for arrivals and departures from the third quarter of 2013 through the second quarter of 2016 were determined for EWN, shown in Figure 2-12. American flights to CLT and Delta flights to ATL were the major focus for load factors since both routes offer passengers access to major airports with connections to domestic and international destinations and flights back to EWN. American load factors ranged from a low of 69 in quarter one of 2014 and peaked to 91 in quarter two of 2015. Delta load factors ranged from a low of 71 in quarter one of 2015 and peaked to 88 in quarter two of 2015. Overall load factors for airlines fell to a low of 72 in quarter one of 2014 and peaked to 90 in quarter two of 2015. EWN has peak period during the third quarter and a weak period during the first quarter for load factors during this period.

Figure 2-12: EWN Average Load Factors 2013-2016

The load factor discussion illustrates the seasonality of passenger travel to EWN. Winter months are less busy than summer, and airlines reduce the number of seats offered to the EWN market accordingly. This is not uncommon across the country, and airlines generally match their schedule to the expected level of demand in the markets that they serve.


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2.4.6 Catchment Area and Competition

An airport catchment area (or service area), is a geographic area surrounding an airport where it can reasonably expect to draw passenger traffic and is representative of the local market. The catchment area contains the population of travelers who should use EWN considering the drive time from the catchment area to competing airports, and is based on zip codes associated with airline ticket purchases for travelers who flew from EWN. The catchment area of commercial air service includes the New Bern MSA, with some spillover into adjacent counties.

The number of travelers generated by the catchment area is known as the true market. These passengers did not all use EWN, but live within proximity of the airport so it is possible that they could have used EWN if the price, schedule, and airline choice fit their needs. The EWN catchment area generated 422,448 passengers for the year ending June 2016. A map of the catchment area is shown in Figure 2-13. Figure 2-13: EWN Catchment Area

Fifty-one percent of catchment area travelers used EWN, while 38 percent diverted to Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU), 7 percent diverted to Jacksonville’s Albert J. Ellis Airport (OAJ) and 4 percent diverted to other airports. Fifty-three percent of domestic travelers and 30 percent of international travelers in the catchment area used EWN. New Bern is located 52 miles (an approximate one-hour drive) from OAJ and 130 miles (an approximate 2 hour, 5-minute drive) from RDU. Due to the relative proximity of RDU and the substantial level of nonstop service, most domestic and international diverting passengers from EWN use RDU as their primary alternate airport. While OAJ is closer in terms of proximity and drive time, the level of service offered (which is like EWN) makes it experience only a small amount of diversion from EWN. Airport use by community is shown in Figure 2-14.


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Travelers drive to competing airports to access air service for many reasons, one of which is nonstop service availability. In June 2016, EWN offered nonstop service to two markets: Atlanta and Charlotte, serving two of the top 25 markets with 57 weekly departures. Conversely, RDU offered a total of 990 weekly departures to 24 of the top 25 markets from the EWN catchment area. Like EWN, OAJ offered service to the same two destinations of the top 25 markets, with a slightly higher 68 weekly departures. The top 50 markets for travelers from the EWN catchment area are shown in Figure 2-15. The quality of air service offered by an airport is a factor in a traveler’s decision when selecting where to originate or terminate air service. In general, passengers prefer larger aircraft over smaller aircraft and jet aircraft over turboprop aircraft. In June 2016, EWN offered 57 weekly departures and 2,752 weekly seats, with 63 percent of flights on turboprop aircraft and 37 percent on regional jet aircraft. RDU had 140,899 seats on 1,286 weekly departures, with 50 percent of flights on regional jets. OAJ provided 68 weekly departures with 4,030 weekly seats, with 15 percent of flights on turboprop aircraft and 85 percent of flights on regional jet aircraft. While proximity to an airport, nonstop service, and quality of air service play roles in the decision of a traveler to use an airport, the most important factor to consider is the price of airfare.

Figure 2-14: Airport Use by Community

COMMUNITY AIRPORT USE % TRUE MARKET

ESTIMATE EWN RDU OAJ Other New Bern 72 24 1 3 144,120 Kinston 29 60 6 5 48,023 Havelock 73 23 2 2 43,801 Emerald Isle 24 36 34 6 37,685 Morehead City 60 31 6 3 35,779 Newport 60 23 12 4 29,483 Beaufort 51 34 13 2 21,292 Atlantic Beach 60 24 8 8 9,051 Chocowinity 6 62 0 31 8,048 Oriental 69 27 1 3 6,442 Arapahoe 85 15 0 0 4,682 Grifton 19 60 0 22 4,674 Maysville 34 20 42 5 3,697 Vanceboro 48 41 0 11 3,274 Pollocksville 73 15 7 5 2,927 All Other 60 33 5 3 19,470 Total 51 38 7 4 422,448


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Figure 2-15: EWN Catchment Area Passengers by Top 50 Markets

Ran

k Destination

EWN

Reporte

d

Retention

%

True

Market

PDE

W

Origin Airport Of

RDU OAJ Other

1 Orlando, FL (MCO) 4,731 28 17,145 23.5 10,555 1,202 656

2 Atlanta, GA 11,525 68 17,006 23.3 3,513 1,593 375

3 Boston, MA 5,661 40 14,015 19.2 6,950 1,132 272

4 Chicago, IL (ORD) 5,852 43 13,566 18.6 6,118 950 646

5 New York, NY (LGA) 4,179 31 13,396 18.4 7,153 983 1,082

6 Los Angeles, CA 5,105 43 11,851 16.2 6,180 415 151

7 Fort Lauderdale, FL 4,215 38 11,074 15.2 5,279 857 722

8 San Diego, CA 5,439 54 10,066 13.8 3,587 649 391

9 Denver, CO 4,934 50 9,785 13.4 3,977 735 140

10 Dallas, TX (DFW) 6,270 65 9,637 13.2 2,357 463 547

11 Tampa, FL 4,263 55 7,806 10.7 2,654 384 505

12 Newark, NJ 4,366 56 7,799 10.7 2,761 485 187

13 Las Vegas, NV 3,762 51 7,385 10.1 2,897 429 296

14 Charlotte-Douglas, NC 5,820 80 7,309 10.0 99 860 529

15 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 3,726 56 6,613 9.1 1,673 942 272

16 Miami, FL 2,707 41 6,612 9.1 3,228 590 87

17 St. Louis, MO 3,108 47 6,603 9.0 3,084 254 159

18 Seattle, WA (SEA) 3,366 55 6,100 8.4 2,023 460 251

19 San Francisco, CA 3,248 54 5,988 8.2 1,888 725 126

20 Detroit, MI 3,992 69 5,808 8.0 918 683 216

21 Houston, TX (IAH) 4,039 70 5,750 7.9 1,274 255 182

22 New York, NY (JFK) 1,694 30 5,726 7.8 3,778 119 136

23 Minneapolis, MN 3,466 63 5,499 7.5 1,591 398 43

24 Philadelphia, PA 3,005 56 5,362 7.3 1,355 530 471

25 Nashville, TN 3,157 63 4,981 6.8 1,228 456 140

26 New Orleans, LA 3,483 77 4,498 6.2 402 529 84

27 Austin, TX 2,439 57 4,299 5.9 1,660 200 0

28 Indianapolis, IN 2,513 61 4,135 5.7 713 535 374

29 Washington, DC (DCA) 1,696 43 3,979 5.5 1,305 587 391

30 Chicago, IL (MDW) 545 14 3,921 5.4 3,242 71 62

31 Memphis, TN 2,324 61 3,780 5.2 640 440 377

32 Cleveland, OH 2,041 55 3,719 5.1 657 851 170

33 Hartford, CT 2,609 70 3,708 5.1 764 224 112

34 Kansas City, MO 2,401 66 3,642 5.0 952 145 145

35 Orange County, CA 1,100 33 3,369 4.6 1,830 220 220


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Figure 2-15: EWN Catchment Area Passengers by Top 50 Markets – Continued

Ran

k Destination

EWN

Reporte

d

Retention

%

True

Market

PDE

W

Origin Airport Of

RDU OAJ Other

36 Portland, OR 1,343 41 3,254 4.5 1,516 158 237

37 Pittsburgh, PA 2,094 67 3,143 4.3 853 196 0 38 Cancun, Mexico 655 21 3,049 4.2 2,154 157 83

39 West Palm Beach, FL 2,432 81 3,005 4.1 213 210 150

40 Columbus, OH 1,948 67 2,906 4.0 665 136 157

41 Milwaukee, WI 1,496 52 2,898 4.0 791 0 612

42 Salt Lake City, UT 1,344 49 2,768 3.8 1,088 312 24

43 Ontario, CA 626 23 2,745 3.8 1,728 0 391

44 Providence, RI 1,849 68 2,731 3.7 628 181 72

45 Pensacola, FL 2,189 82 2,657 3.6 357 0 111

46 Baltimore, MD 1,278 48 2,655 3.6 1,229 98 49

47 San Antonio, TX 1,749 66 2,632 3.6 604 101 177

48 Yuma, AZ 1,475 58 2,552 3.5 776 193 108

49 Honolulu, HI 857 36 2,390 3.3 1,352 132 49

50 Jacksonville, FL 1,945 81 2,390 3.3 132 38 275

Top 50 Destinations 156,061 51 303,709 416.0 112,370 22,265 13,014

Total Domestic 204,801 53 385,254 527.7 136,612 27,201 16,641

Total International 11,271 30 37,194 51.0 23,073 1,769 1,080

Total All Markets 216,072 51 422,448 578.7 159,685 28,970 17,721

2.4.7 Average Fare and Average Yield

When a traveler decides which airport to access for travel, airfares play a large role. Airfares affect air service demand and an airport’s ability to retain passengers. One-way airfares (excluding taxes and Passenger Facility Charges (PFC) paid by travelers are used to measure the relative fare competitiveness between EWN and the competing airports. Average airfares are shown in Figure 2-16.


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Table 2-16: Average Airfares

Rank Destination Average One Way Fare EWN Max

Difference EWN RDU OAJ 1 Orlando, FL (MCO) $165 $125 $171 $41 2 Atlanta, GA $151 $152 $157 ($1) 3 Boston, MA $176 $136 $174 $39 4 Chicago, IL (ORD) $174 $137 $157 $37 5 New York, NY (LGA) $191 $138 $185 $53 6 Los Angeles, CA $285 $228 $263 $57 7 Fort Lauderdale, FL $131 $111 $143 $19 8 San Diego, CA $292 $224 $286 $69 9 Denver, CO $203 $165 $206 $38

10 Dallas, TX (DFW) $210 $209 $198 $12 11 Tampa, FL $171 $140 $174 $31 12 Newark, NJ $176 $149 $163 $27 13 Las Vegas, NV $241 $201 $228 $40 14 Charlotte-Douglas, NC $154 $120 $166 $34 15 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) $207 $193 $207 $14 16 Miami, FL $172 $123 $144 $49 17 St. Louis, MO $179 $160 $208 $20 18 Seattle, WA (SEA) $268 $212 $295 $57 19 San Francisco, CA $275 $265 $263 $12 20 Detroit, MI $175 $204 $185 ($10) 21 Houston, TX (IAH) $210 $204 $183 $26 22 New York, NY (JFK) $183 $131 $194 $52 23 Minneapolis, MN $189 $211 $190 ($1) 24 Philadelphia, PA $235 $169 $204 $66 25 Nashville, TN $164 $144 $170 $20

Average domestic fare $212 $170 $219 $42

Source: Diio Mi; Note: Year Ended June 30, 2016; Fares do not include taxes or Passenger Facility Charges

Average airfares are a result of many factors including: length of haul, availability of seats, business versus leisure fares and airline competition. The overall average fare for the year ended June 30, 2016, at EWN was $212, $42 higher than RDU and $7 lower than OAJ. In individual markets, EWN had the highest fare in 12 of the top 25 markets compared to diverting airports. Most of the destinations had similar fares from both EWN and OAJ, with RDU having fares lower in all but three markets. The consistent fare disparity in much of top markets between EWN and RDU (which draws most of the diversion) is likely the largest single contributing factor to diversion from the EWN catchment area. 2.4.8 Air Cargo

Air cargo services are operated by FedEx Express and MartinAir, which operates on behalf of UPS. FedEx reports cargo volume and operations to the USDOT while MartinAir does not. The air cargo operation at EWN serves the New Bern MSA, the Carolina Coast, and the nearby communities of Kinston to the east and Jacksonville to the south via truck. Trucks bring the cargo to EWN, where it is put on an aircraft.


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FedEx uses Cessna 208 Caravans and ATR-42s. Cargo is flown to and from Greensboro, where it is consolidated and sent on to Memphis and Indianapolis. The FedEx station manager reports that the military bases, car dealerships, BSH, and Moen are primary customers for air cargo. The military bases alone generate hundreds of packages per day. UPS operates in a similar manner where cargo is collected via truck and then flown to a nearby airport for consolidation and shipment onto the UPS Louisville hub. Due to TSA cargo screening requirements, passenger airlines do not accept much cargo. A summary of air cargo activity is shown in Figure 2-17.

Figure 2-17: Cargo Airline Operations and Activity

Fiscal Year Operations Cargo In (Tons)

Cargo Out (Tons)

Total Cargo (Tons) % Change Cargo Load

2006 730 842.1 899.8 1,741.9 45.9% 2007 924 1,081.1 994.4 2,075.5 19.2% 45.6% 2008 924 1,066.2 958.8 2,025.0 -2.4% 47.9% 2009 920 1,103.2 962.2 2,065.4 2.0% 53.6% 2010 920 1,157.5 1,064.2 2,221.7 7.6% 52.4% 2011 914 1,064.2 1,065.3 2,129.5 -4.2% 51.5% 2012 920 1,047.1 1,070.6 2,117.6 -0.6% 50.3% 2013 918 983.2 1,010.8 1,994.0 -5.8% 47.8% 2014 882 1,014.5 935.4 1,950.0 -2.2% 47.5% 2015 914 1,023.0 954.4 1,977.4 1.4% 47.3% 2016 914 1,026.4 1,007.3 2,033.7 2.8% 48.6%

CAGR 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 1.6%

Sources: 2006-2016 USDOT T-100 Database

Air cargo is subject to peaking and during busy periods, such as over Christmas, Mother’s Day, and Valentine’s Day, average cargo load can near 100 percent on inbound flights. Cargo operators are able to vary aircraft size and flight frequency as needed to respond to peaks, and year round operations have remained steady outside of a spike in growth from 2006 to 2007. Cargo volume is tied to the local economy and the nature of the businesses in the catchment area.


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2.5 General Aviation

2.5.1 General Aviation Businesses General aviation businesses include those that offer services to pilots, passenger, and aircraft, offer flight training, provide emergency response services, and are businesses that use general aviation aircraft to transport goods, employees, and customers. These businesses help attract itinerant users and support based users. Understanding the nature of GA businesses on the airfield defines what markets segments the airport serves, and what unserved segments could be served by existing businesses.

• Tidewater Air Services: Tidewater is the airport’s fixed base operator (FBO), providing fuel, line service, and pilot services. Tidewater sells fuel to general aviation and scheduled commercial airlines, and is the sole fuel provider on the airfield. Tidewater does not offer aircraft maintenance and directs customers to the maintenance business located on the airfield. Tidewater rents tie-downs and apron parking space to itinerant aircraft.

• Tradewind Maintenance: This business sells and installs aircraft parts, and provides maintenance for Piper, Cessna, and Beechcraft airplanes. The mechanics are trained on piston and turboprop engines and attract aircraft from around the state for maintenance services. Tradewind does not maintain turbo-jet aircraft or engines.

• Tradewind International: This business is a certified Part 61 and Part 141 flight school. The school has nine single engine piston aircraft. Presence of the military facilities provides a steady stream of customers to Tradewind, and the businesses estimates that 80 percent of their students are either enlisted, or have recently retired. Students coming from the military can use the G.I. Bill to help fund the cost of their flight training. Tradewind typically has 12-15 students at a given time, and encourages students to fly three times a week. Peak seasons for flight training are the summer and fall, and business slows down in the winter.

• PlaneConnection: PlaneConection is a current aircraft management company and a prospective airline that is affiliated with Tradewind International and is in the process of completing its Part 135 certification with the FAA. PlaneConnection intends to offer services between RDU, Grensboro, and EWN. If successful, the business will look at establishing service from EWN to the Carolina Outer Banks, located east of EWN. At present, PlaneConnection manages two single engine piston and one multi engine piston aircraft for private owners.

• Eastern Aviation Fuels: Eastern Aviation Fuels’ corporate offices are not located on the airfield; however, the founder and chairman owns a hangar at EWN and bases two Cessna jets and a helicopter at the airport. Eastern is the marketer of Shell brand aviation fuels nationwide.


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2.5.2 Itinerant General Aviation Operations

Itinerant general aviation operations are those that originate or terminate flight at an airport besides EWN. These operations are made up of business travelers coming to and from the community, student pilots performing cross country training flights, and recreational pilots that are after the $100 hamburger, named for the cost of the hamburger once you add in the fuel it took to fly to the restaurant. A summary of itinerant general aviation operations from 2006 to 2016 is shown in Figure 2-18.

While many local businesses and the military use scheduled commercial aircraft to move in and out of the area, there are several local businesses and customers of local businesses that fly general aviation aircraft in and out of EWN. Truly transient users, or those that stop in EWN to rest and refuel on their way between two other airports, are also counted as itinerant operations. A summary of itinerant operations drivers is below.

• EWN is located on the flyway between the Northeast and the Southeast, which makes them an option for a rest-stop for cross country travelers.

• Pepsi Cola was created in New Bern in 1898. Although no longer headquartered there, the Pepsi Corporation Board of Directors have meetings in New Bern.

• Hatteras Yachts customers fly in and out of EWN during the design and build of their boat. • Celebrities, including author Nicholas Sparks and PGA golfers, live in the surrounding area and

use general aviation to come and go. • New Bern is a former pilot base for Piedmont Airlines. Although the base was closed in 2015,

many pilots live in the area and fly for recreation. • Proximity to the Outer Banks attracts leisure travelers. • EWN is the closest civilian airport to MCAS Cherry Point, making it attractive to civilian

contractors flying to do business at the MCAS. • The flight school estimates that 20 percent of annual flight hours are spent on cross country flying.

Relative change in itinerant general aviation operations at EWN is compared to the state and the country in Figure 2-19.

Table 2-18: Itinerant GA Operations

Fiscal Year Operations Percent Change

2006 17,605

2007 16,741 -4.9%

2008 14,400 -14.0%

2009 12,907 -10.4%

2010 14,668 13.6%

2011 13,763 -6.2%

2012 12,993 -5.6%

2013 12,131 -6.6%

2014 10,576 -12.8%

2015 12,171 15.1%

2016 15,045 23.6%

CAGR -1.6%

Source: FAA 2017 TAF and EWN ATCT


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Figure 2-19: Relative Change in Itinerant General Aviation Operations

Sources: FAA 2017 TAF, FAA OPSNET, and EWN ATCT

Itinerant GA traffic is down nationwide compared to the base year of 2006. While EWN traffic has traditionally seen more of a decrease when compared to state and national totals, the uptick reported by the control tower in 2016 has put EWN between North Carolina and the U.S. for 2016. Reasons for the overall national decline include the following.

• A general decline in recreational flying that followed the recession of 2009. • Aging of the U.S. pilot population and the retirement of aircraft and pilots. • Public perception causing some businesses and government organizations to decrease the

amount of corporate flying, or eliminate it entirely.

The past two years have seen itinerant GA traffic grow at EWN, and continued economic development in the MSA, and improving conditions in the U.S. may cause this trend to continue.


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2.5.3 Itinerant Part 135 Air Taxi Operations

Some Part 135 general aviation operators get logged in the TAF as “Air Taxi” operations, but passengers on these flights are not counted towards enplanements because they do not use the passenger terminal or pay facility charges, and Part 135 flights are considered unscheduled. Examples of Part 135 air taxi operations include companies like NetJets and MarquisJet, which provide point-to-point private jet service on demand. What separates these operations from itinerant business jet and turboprop operations is that the air transportation company owns the aircraft and employs the pilots, and not the passengers (or the passengers company). The ATCT does not log these operations separately; however the total number can be counted by deducting airline and cargo flights from the air taxi operations count. Part 135 Air Taxi operations are shown in Figure 2-20.

Part 135 air taxi operations have been highly variable at EWN. Although operations have declined since 2014, overall itinerant GA operations have grown. Given the small number of overall operations, it is possible for a change for one user, such as an individual who travels frequently or a company that uses a Part 135 operator to move employees around, can have a substantial impact on overall operations. As noted in Section 3bi, a Part 135 operator is undergoing FAA certification and could begin operations at EWN in 2017. The planned daily service could triple annual Part 135 operations at EWN.

Figure 2-20: Part 135 Air Taxi Operations

Fiscal Year Operations Percent

Change

2006 1,801

2007 1,357 -24.7%

2008 1,307 -3.7%

2009 182 -86.1%

2010 667 266.5%

2011 503 -24.6%

2012 278 -44.7%

2013 480 72.7%

2014 740 54.2%

2015 536 -27.6%

2016 220 -59.0%

CAGR -19.0%

Sources: FAA 2017 TAF and EWN ATCT


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2.5.4 Local General Aviation Operations

Local general aviation operations are those that originate and terminate at EWN. These operations are primarily made up of student pilots practicing landings and takeoffs, and include recreational pilots maintaining proficiency. A summary of local general aviation operations from 2006 to 2016 is shown in Figure 2-21. The presence of the flight school at EWN drives much of the local general aviation operations and the flight school and ATCT estimate that 75 percent of local operations are students. A summary of local operations drivers and considerations are below. Estimates of local flight training operations are shown in Figure 2-22.

• Flight training operates throughout the year with hours flown varying based on season as described below. o Winter (December to February): Five percent of hours. o Spring (March to May): 35 percent of hours. o Summer (June to August): 25 percent of hours. o Fall (September to November): 35 percent of hours.

• The head instructor estimates that 80 percent of flight hours are spent on local flying. • An estimated 80 percent of students are currently in, or have recently left the military and were

stationed nearby. • Students perform up to an average of four operations per hour when flying in the pattern, which

includes time spent on the ground taxiing. • Demand for flight training follows the financial health of the airline industry. When airlines are

hiring, students begin training.

Figure 2-21: Local GA Operations

Fiscal Year Operations Percent Change

2006 15,774

2007 12,614 -20.0%

2008 11,094 -12.1%

2009 11,989 8.1%

2010 12,873 7.4%

2011 10,039 -22.0%

2012 8,031 -20.0%

2013 9,667 20.4%

2014 10,294 6.5%

2015 8,634 -16.1%

2016 10,693 23.8%

CAGR -3.8%


Figure 2-22: Flight Training Operations Fiscal Year Flight Hours % Change Local Training % Local Ops.

2013 2,742 7,400 77% 2014 2,556 -7% 6,900 67% 2015 2,384 -7% 6,400 74% 2016 3,209 35% 8,700 81% 2017(F) 3,300 3% 8,900 Unknown

Source: Tradewind International records. FY2017 is an estimate. Estimated 3.375 operations per flight hour for local training.


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Relative change in itinerant general aviation operations at EWN is compared to the state and the country in Figure 2-23.

Figure 2-23: Relative Change in Local General Aviation Operations


Like local operations, EWN saw a decline of local general aviation operations of greater proportion than the national average in local operations following the 2009 recession. Local operations have been recovering, and certification of the flight school to make it eligible to offer training under the G.I. Bill have contributed to the growth. While flight training, which makes up an estimated 75 percent of local operations at EWN, is returning to growth, recreational proficiency flying among the based pilots at EWN has not. Flight training operations have fluctuated less than total local operations over the past four years, suggesting that the flight training market is more stable than the recreational general aviation market. Possible causes for this are similar to the cause for a decline in itinerant operations, and include financial hardship following the recession, and the aging of the pilot population. In the U.S. local operations have remained ten percent below 2006 levels despite the improving economy.


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2.5.5 Based Aircraft

Based aircraft are those that are hangered and stored at EWN, and based aircraft totals do not include visiting, or itinerant, aircraft. Based aircraft are classified into broad categories by the FAA based on the aircraft’s propulsion system, engine configuration, and weight. As of 2016, SEP aircraft are the most common type at EWN, with 72 aircraft making up 87 percent of the based fleet. There were three MEPs, three jets, two helicopters, and three experimental aircraft based at EWN in 2016. Based aircraft records from 2006 to 2016 are shown in Figure 2-24.

TERMINOLOGY

Single Engine Piston (SEP): SEP have one piston powered engine. These aircraft are generally smaller and are often used for flight training and recreational flying. SEP may be used for regional business trips. Depending on weight and operator certification, these aircraft generally require only one pilot. Multi-Engine Piston (MEP): MEP have two or more engines and are typically larger than SEP. Multiple engines make the aircraft more capable, and requires additional flight instruction beyond what is needed to operate a SEP. MEP are primarily used for flight training and business aviation. MEP may require two pilots, but many variants can be operated with one. Jet: Jet aircraft are characterized for having a turbine engine instead of a piston engine. These aircraft may have turbojets, or a turboprop. Jet aircraft range in size from small four-passenger business jets to the largest airliners. They can generally fly faster and at higher altitudes than SEP and MEP, making them better suited for business travel and emergency response. It is less common, but not unheard of, to see a jet used for recreational flying and flight instruction. Some smaller civilian jets can operate with a single pilot; however, most civilian jet aircraft require two. Helicopter: Helicopters are characterized by having a rotor mounted above the cabin for lift and propulsion. Helicopters are commonly used for flight training, by law enforcement and emergency response, and by aerial businesses such as pipeline inspection, forestry, and aerial agriculture. Helicopters can be piston or turbine powered, and depending on the complexity of the model, can be operated by one pilot or two. Experimental (Exp.): Exp. aircraft refer to kit airplanes that are built by users, or third-parties besides the original manufacturer. Exp. aircraft share many characteristics with SEP – the key differentiator is how and where the aircraft is assembled. Exp. aircraft are primarily used for recreational flying.


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Figure 2-24: Based Aircraft Fleet Year SEP Jet MEP Helicopter Exp. Total

2006 76 1 3 1 0 81

2007 76 1 2 2 0 81

2008 76 1 2 2 0 81

2009 75 2 2 1 0 80

2010 75 2 2 1 0 80

2011 75 2 2 2 0 81

2012 72 2 3 2 0 79

2013 72 2 3 2 0 79

2014 74 2 2 2 2 82

2015 74 2 2 2 2 82

2016 72 3 3 2 3 83

CAGR -0.5% 11.6% 0.0% 7.2% N/A 0.2%

Sources: 2006-2015 FAA 2017 TAF, 2016 Airport Management Records

Nationwide, the composition of the based aircraft fleet is changing and fleet changes at EWN reflect national trends. The SEP fleet is declining as aircraft age and are retired. SEP aircraft are being built; however, the rate of retirement exceeds the rate of entry into service. Replacing SEP are new classes of aircraft called “light sport” (LSA) and experimental (Exp.). These aircraft are often cheaper to buy than a new SEP, and require fewer training hours and a more relaxed medical certificate to fly with the advent of the light sport license.

Jet aircraft, both turbine and turboprop, are replacing MEP for business travel, and helicopters are showing growth nationwide. While EWN does not have any based LSA, the flight school has indicated that LSA training is a possibility if demand presents itself. The FAA Aerospace Forecast growth rates for 2001 to 2015 are shown in Figure 2-25.

Figure 2-25: National General Aviation Aircraft Fleet Growth Rates Year SEP Jet MEP Helicopter Exp. Total

2001-2015 -1.1% 3.1% -2.3% 3.0% 1.9% -0.3%

2015-2036 -0.7% 2.0% -0.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2%

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2016-2036

While the composition of the general aviation fleet is changing, overall aircraft totals are remaining at about the same level. Relative change in based aircraft at EWN is compared to the state and the country in Figure 2-26.


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Figure 2-26: Relative Change in Based Aircraft

Sources: EWN 2006-2015 and others 2006-2016 FAA 2017 TAF, EWN 2016 Airport Management

Based aircraft levels at EWN have remained near 2006 levels for the past ten years, performing better (proportionally) to the state and the U.S. Although based levels have not changed much, itinerant and local operations counts show that the aircraft based at EWN are not being flown as often as other active aircraft. General aviation operations per based aircraft (OPBA) for EWN, North Carolina, and the U.S. are shown in Figure 2-27.

Figure 2-27: General Aviation Operations per Based Aircraft Year EWN North Carolina U.S.

2006 412 455 406 2011 294 517 436 2016 310 449 395 CAGR -2.8% -0.1% -0.3%

Calculation = (Local Civil Operations + Itinerant GA Operations)/Based Aircraft EWN 2006-2015 and others 2006-2016 FAA 2017 TAF, EWN 2016 Airport Management and EWN ATCT.

The decline in OPBA is caused by decline in recreational flying because flight school records show that flight training operations are growing. The flight school has nine of the 83 based aircraft, which means that the other 74 owned by other tenants do not fly as frequently. Itinerant general aviation operations have shown an increase over the past two years, which will improve OPBA.


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2.6 Military Although there are no military aircraft based at EWN, the airport occasionally sees military activity from the nearby MCASs at Cherry Point and New River. Military aircraft routinely stop at civilian airports to refuel, handle technical issues, train, and provide time for crew rest during cross country flights. Military operations are presented in Figure 2-28.

Figure 2-28: Military Operations

Year Itinerant Local Total Percent

Change

2006 1,442 696 2,138 2007 1,127 782 1,909 -10.7% 2008 1,007 917 1,924 0.8% 2009 560 686 1,246 -35.2% 2010 574 676 1,250 0.3% 2011 596 1,031 1,627 30.2% 2012 545 1,070 1,615 -0.7% 2013 656 1,775 2,431 50.5% 2014 557 1,263 1,820 -25.1% 2015 561 424 985 -45.9% 2016 558 914 1,472 49.4% CAGR -9.1% 2.8% -3.7%

Sources: 2006-2015 FAA 2016 TAF, 2016 FAA OPSNET and EWN ATCT

Military operations are not broken up by branch of the military or by base of the aircraft. Some operations may come from aircraft based at nearby MCAS like Cherry Point and New River, and some may come from Coast Guard, Navy, Air Force, and Army aircraft based across the country. Military flight activity is driven by needs of the DoD and not subject to free market forces to the same extent as civilian aviation. For this reason, the airport master plans at airports without based military aircraft, or the expectation that they will receive heavy military use, tend to not focus on military operations and therefore accept FAA projections. Also, military operations are not typically used for the justification of new airport facilities at civilian airports as stipulated by the FAA Airport Improvement Program (AIP).


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2.7 FAA Terminal Area Forecast

The TAF is the official FAA forecast for EWN, and forecasts generated for the airport are compared to the TAF. When the FAA approves an airport-generated forecast, it will be used to update the TAF in the coming FAA fiscal year. The forecasts can be approved by Airports District Office staff if they are within the tolerances of ten percent of the TAF over the five-year forecast period, and within fifteen percent of the TAF over the ten-year forecast period. Deviation from the TAF tolerances elevates forecast review and approval to FAA headquarters, and additional information may be requested prior to approval. The TAF forecasts passenger enplanements, operations, and based aircraft. It does not forecast operations by aircraft type, peak activity levels, critical aircraft, or air cargo. Military forecasts are typically flat, based on the most recent year of activity. The TAF uses for this forecast effort was published on January 2017, and uses data from 2016. The TAF uses the FAA fiscal year (FY), which begins October 1. Airport and air traffic control tower (ATCT) records were compared to the TAF for FY2016. Operations data matches; however, passenger enplanements and based aircraft differ. Discussion of the impact that this difference has on the forecasts is included in the appropriate section. A summary of the TAF is presented in Figure 2-29.

Figure 2-29: FAA Terminal Area Forecast (Issued January 2017) and EWN Records for FY2016

Fiscal Year 2016(EWN) ∆ 2016(TAF) 2021 2026 2031 2036 Enplanements 105,440 -1,862 107,302 124,226 131,382 141,009 152,037 Operations 33,676 0 33,676 37,588 38,544 39,289 40,118

Air Carrier Ops. 192 0 192 3,857 4,639 4,980 5,367

Air Taxi Ops. 6,274 0 6,274 4,431 4,515 4,829 5,181 Itn. GA Ops. 15,045 0 15,045 16,133 16,188 16,243 16,298

Loc. GA Ops. 10,693 0 10,693 11,695 11,730 11,765 11,800 Military Ops. 1,472 0 1,472 1,472 1,472 1,472 1,472

Based Aircraft 83 -3 86 86 86 86 86 SEP 72 -5 77 77 77 77 77 Jet 3 1 2 2 2 2 2

MEP 3 -2 5 5 5 5 5 Helicopter 2 0 2 2 2 2 2

Other / Exp. 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 Sources: 2016 (TAF): FAA 2017 TAF, 2016 (EWN): Airport Management and EWN ATCT


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2.8 Scheduled Service Forecasts

2.8.1 Passenger Enplanements

Methods

Passenger enplanement forecasts look to historical trends, correlated growth indices, and FAA projections to project enplanement levels at EWN. Over the past ten years, passenger enplanement levels at EWN have grown at an annual average of 2.2 percent per year, compared to 3.2 percent for the state, and 0.9 percent nationwide. In this same time, the population of the New Bern MSA has remained level, and the MSA GRP has grown at one percent. Enplanement growth at EWN has benefitted from the presence of large corporations like BSH, Moen, and Hateras Yachts, nearby MCAS Cherry Point, and visitors passing through the community on their way to the Carolina Outer Banks.

In recognition of this growth, it is prudent to assess the reasonability of past performance to predict future projections. The disparity between EWN enplanement growth rates and growth rates of other indicators (national enplanements, demographics, etc.) can be attributed to several reasons. These include how the national market is larger and less sensitive to externalities causing large percentage change, and how military travel remains steady even in the face of economic recessions that negatively impact business and leisure travel.

Analysis shows that enplanement growth correlates strongly with growth in MSA population, total number of jobs (employment), and national enplanements growth. One conclusion that can be drawn is that enplanement levels at EWN are supported by the local economy (demand for air travel and income/business to do so) and the frequency with which air carriers provide air service (supply of air travel). Enplanement levels at EWN are particularly impacted by the proximity to RDU, which is not as conveniently located to the New Bern MSA, but offers more non-stop service and more flight frequencies.

Four forecast methodologies are presented for passenger enplanements. Three are based on the Local Growth Rate over the past ten years, the national growth rate for commuter airline passengers, population and the incidence of flying (enplanements per capita), and a hybrid approach that applies the local growth rate of two percent for the first five years, then introduces a regression model based on population growth and national enplanement forecasts that has a CAGR of 3.6 percent. Passenger enplanement forecasts are shown in Figure 2-30.


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Figure 2-30: Passenger Enplanement Forecasts

Year FAA 2017 TAF Local GR National GR Population Hybrid

2016 108,571 105,440 105,440 105,440 105,440

2021 124,226 117,800 116,400 112,800 116,400

2026 131,382 134,500 130,800 123,400 144,200

2031 141,009 147,000 141,500 131,100 166,400

2036 152,037 164,200 156,100 141,900 198,900

CAGR 1.7% 2.2% 2.0% 1.5% 3.2%

Local/National GR = Local/National Growth Rate Population Forecast is based on 0.83 enplanements per capita, growing at a CAGR of 1.6 percent through 2036 to 1.14 enplanements per capita. Hybrid Forecast is based on National Growth Rate through 2026, then regression model described below from 2027 to 2036. Regression Statistics Hybrid Forecast: Adjusted R2 =0.87, Regression Equation = -551,296.009 + (3.357* MSA Population)+(1,550.575* National Commuter Passengers)


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2.8.2 Preferred and TAF Comparison

Passenger enplanement forecasts vary between 1.5 and 2.9 percent CAGR through the forecast period. The selection of a preferred forecast is based on the model that best fits the known factors and assumptions that drive passenger enplanements at EWN. These are categorized as factors that positively or negatively influence air service, and as factors that are occurring now or factors that will occur in the future. Considerations are shown in Figure 2-31.

Figure 2-31: Considerations for Selecting Preferred Enplanement Forecast Enplanement Growth Enplanement Decline / No Growth

Now

/ C

erta

in

• Improving local economy • Population growth • Attraction of new businesses to New

Bern and Havelock • Area popular with retirees from

Northeast • Resurgence of Hatteras Yachts’

business • Proportionally large (10% instead of 2-

3%) population of American and Delta frequent flyers

• Military contracts with airlines for ticket purchase

• Enplanement decline in recent years due to reduced frequencies Competing Airports (RDU)

• Limited flight schedules • Limited non-stop service • Outside of New Bern and Havelock,

MSA is very rural and sparsely populated

Futu

re /

Unc

erta

in • F-35 Program at MCAS Cherry Point

• Attraction of support businesses for F-35 program

• Improvements to New Bern Convention Center

• Larger aircraft allowing more of true market to travel when they want to

• New non-stop service on United or Allegiant

• MCAS Cherry Point impacted by BRAC • Less frequent airline service • Larger aircraft causing airlines to reduce

frequencies • Loss of a carrier, or carrier consolidation

to another airport • Highway improvements making travel to

RDU easier

The considerations in Figure 2-31 illustrate the future uncertainties that could impact on passenger enplanements at EWN. The DoD FY2017 ticket purchase agreement shows 9,204 tickets are expected for departures from New Bern, which is nearly nine percent of total forecasted enplanements for FY2017. During an interview with the former MCAS Cherry Point Base Commander, it was mentioned that the F-35 program would likely bring civilian contractors to the area to maintain and supply the aircraft program. While the threat of Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) exists for any military facility, it was expected that if MCAS Cherry Point is successful in acquiring the F-35 program, it will be an unlikely candidate for BRAC in the near future.


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The other key consideration for the passenger enplanement forecasts is the eventual switch from the CRJ-200 and Dash-8 to the larger CRJ-700 and CRJ-900 aircraft. The passenger demand analysis shows that 38 percent of passengers in the EWN catchment area use other airports, largely due to availability of non-stop flights and schedules. Larger aircraft could make it easier to find a seat at a desired flight time, but it could also cause airlines to reduce frequency into EWN and still transport near the same number of passengers while deploying equipment and crew to other markets.

Given the considerations in Figure 2-31, the Hybrid Forecast is the preferred forecast. This approach shows slow, sustained growth in the near-term, followed by higher growth driven by local population and the health of the airline industry. The Hybrid Forecast is 6.3 percent below the TAF in 2021 and 9.8 percent above the TAF in 2026. The reason that the Hybrid Forecast is below the TAF in 2021 is because the TAF has a spike in enplanements from 2016 to 2017 that then levels off at a CAGR of 1.7 percent beyond 2017. Local stakeholders did not provide evidence that suggested a large spike in enplanements was imminent, and most indicated that growth would be slow and steady over the near term, with a faster growth rate in the out years as the airport continued to market itself to the airlines and passengers.

2.9 Air Cargo

Methods

Air cargo volumes at EWN have remained stable over the past ten years with a CAGR of 1.6 percent. Regression analysis shows that the two socioeconomic variables that show the strongest historical correlation with air cargo volume are MSA population and MSA gross regional product. Cargo volume forecasts look at continuing the historical growth rate of 1.6 percent, and pairing growth in cargo with growth of MSA gross regional product, and with both MSA population and gross regional product.

Annual air cargo capacity is roughly twice annual volume; however, peak shipping periods see aircraft operating closer to capacity. The nature of air cargo operations at EWN are not expected to change. Without tremendous growth, brought about by a new manufacturer or logistics company, air cargo volumes will not require that FedEx increase aircraft size to handle capacity.

2.9.1 Forecast and Preferred Method

The TAF does not forecast cargo volume, and air cargo operations are included in air taxi operations forecasts. Forecasts based on MSA population show a slight decline in air cargo. MSA Population and MSA gross regional product forecast shows an increase, with a CAGR of 1.4 percent. The historical growth


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rate forecast shows the largest growth with a CAGR of 1.6 percent. Air cargo forecasts are shown in Figure 2-32.

Both regression models exhibit low R2 values, indicating that variability in cargo volume is not well explained by the regression equation. This is despite MSA population and MSA gross product showing the strongest historical correlation with cargo volume. Given that cargo volume has remained stable, and there are no near-term indicators that the New Bern MSA will experience a dramatic change in industry, the growth rate forecast is the preferred cargo methodology. It is expected that the existing level cargo operations will be able to handle the projected cargo volume.

Figure 2-32: Air Cargo Forecasts

Year Operations Growth Rate Population GRP & Pop. Capacity

2016 914 2,034 2,034 2,034 4,183

2021 1,000 2,200 2,027 2,200 4,200

2026 1,000 2,400 2,010 2,400 4,200

2031 1,000 2,600 1,998 2,500 4,200

2036 1,000 2,800 1,995 2,700 4,200

CAGR 0.5% 1.6% -0.1% 1.4% 0.0%

GRP & Pop = Gross Regional Product and Population Regression Statistics Population: Adjusted R2 =0.31, Regression Equation = -1,037.254+(0.0244*MSA Population) GRP & Pop.: Adjusted R2 =0.35, Regression Equation = -1,027.724+(0.0119*MSA Population)+(0.26*MSA GRP)


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2.10 Commercial Operations Methods

Commercial operations are reported on the TAF as either air carrier, or air taxi. Air carrier operations are performed by passenger aircraft operating with more than 60 seats, and cargo aircraft with a payload capacity above 18,000 pounds. Air taxi operations include passenger aircraft and aircraft operating for hire with 60 or fewer seats and cargo aircraft with a capacity of 18,000 pounds or less. A summary of aircraft types and their classifications are included in Figure 2-33. This table includes aircraft that are currently operated by airlines serving EWN, but do not serve the airport routinely. As the smaller aircraft are phased out, it is possible that these larger aircraft could replace them. Figure 2-33: Typical Commercial Aircraft Aircraft Seats Classification Operates at EWN

Bombardier CS100 Up to 130 Air Carrier No – (Delta, Potential, On Order)

Embraer 190/195 Up to 99 Air Carrier No – (American, Potential)

Embraer 170/175 Up to 76 Air Carrier No – (Delta/American, Potential)

Bombardier CRJ-700/900 Up to 76 Air Carrier Yes – (American)

Bombardier CRJ-200 Up to 50 Air Taxi Yes – American, Delta

DeHavilland Dash 8-300/100 Up to 48 Air Taxi Yes – American

ATR-42 None Air Taxi Yes – FedEx

Cessna 208 Caravan None Air Taxi Yes – FedEx

Cessna Citation Excel Up to 9 Air Taxi Yes – Part 135 operators

Note: This list is not comprehensive. It is intended to illustrate what types of aircraft fit into the FAA aircraft operations categories.

Commercial aircraft operations are forecast in two ways. Air carrier and air taxi operations used by scheduled and charter passenger and cargo airlines are driven by preferred enplanement and cargo forecasts. Part 135 air taxi operations are driven by market forecasts. The components of the commercial operations forecasts are brought together for purposes of comparison to the TAF.

Scheduled commercial departures are calculated based on four factors: the total number of passengers expected to be transported in a year, the average number of seats on the aircraft operating at EWN, the average load factor of the aircraft, and the fleet mix of air carrier and air taxi aircraft.

Passengers come from the preferred enplanement forecast in Section 4a. The passenger enplanement forecast is demand based, therefore the commercial operations forecast assumes that airlines will match the supply of seats available in the EWN market to the expected level of demand. As the airlines move towards larger aircraft, passenger volumes may exceed predictions because more supply is available in the


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market, and fewer passengers would use other airports. Conversely, if airlines keep the number of seats the same and reduce frequencies, the number of passengers could decline as there would be fewer flight choices. Average Seats are based on the type of aircraft that the airlines use. As airlines retire older aircraft with fewer than 60 seats, such as the CRJ-200 and Dash 8-100/300 that are commonly deployed to EWN, these aircraft will be replaced by larger aircraft with more seats. Typical regional jets in use and on order by the airlines have a cap of 76 seats based on union agreements between the airlines and their mainline pilots. Mainline aircraft, such as Boeing and Airbus narrow bodies, can have up to 200 seats. Although these aircraft are not expected to regularly operate at EWN, they may be used for charter operations, or if a particular route of flight time has a high level of demand.

Average load factors can be estimated based on trends observed over the past five years at EWN and nationwide. The target is to be no lower than 70 percent to sustain air service. Load factors have traditionally been in the mid-70s over the past five years. Average load factors consider the entire year. It is expected that peak periods will see load factors closer to 100 percent, and slow periods will see load factors below the average.

Fleet Mix is based on the expected rate of retirement for air taxi aircraft. These aircraft are largely expected to leave service within the next ten years, and their numbers will gradually reduce across the system over time. As the smaller aircraft are phased out, they will be replaced by larger air carrier aircraft. When this happens at EWN, the onus will be on the community to support the service and keep average yield and load factors at a high enough level so that the airlines do not reduce frequency. Scheduled commercial passenger operations forecasts are shown in Figure 2-34.

Figure 2-34: Scheduled Commercial Passenger Departures

Year Air Carrier (More than 60 Seats) Air Taxi (Fewer than 60 Seats)

Dep./Day Dep. Avg. LF Seats/Dep. Dep. Avg. LF Seats/Dep.

2011 96 80% 70 3,176 76% 49 9.0 2012 54 73% 68 3,447 72% 49 9.6 2013 17 83% 67 3,538 72% 49 9.7 2014 11 76% 67 3,069 78% 49 8.4 2015 27 65% 68 2,636 85% 49 7.3 2016 96 62% 79 2,577 77% 50 7.3 2021 2,000 70% 70 1,000 75% 48 7.3 2026 2,820 73% 70 200 75% 50 7.2 2031 3,150 75% 75 0 0 0 7.7 2036 3,500 79% 76 0 0 0 8.5

Dep. = Departures (Scheduled Commercial Operations are two times the number of departures) Avg. LF = Average Load Factor, Number of Passengers / Number of Available Seats Seats/Dep. = Average number of seats per departure. Dep. Day = Average number of departures per day. Total Annual Departures / 365


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2.10.1 Summary and TAF Comparison

The transition from air taxi aircraft to air carrier aircraft for scheduled commercial operations will cause considerable air carrier operation growth at EWN. When broken down, scheduled passenger air taxi operations will decline to zero as the aircraft are retired, cargo operations will remain level, and Part 135 operations will eventually return to their pre-recession levels of over 1,000 flights per year. A summary of commercial operations is shown in Figure 2-35.

Figure 2-35: Commercial Operations Summary

Year Air Carrier Air Taxi Components of Air Taxi Total

Passenger Cargo Part 135 2016 192 6,274 5,153 914 220 2021 4,000 3,600 2,000 1,000 600 2026 5,500 2,200 400 1,000 800 2031 6,300 1,900 0 1,000 900 2036 7,000 2,200 0 1,000 1,200 CAGR 19.0% -7.2% -100% 0.5% 8.9%

The 2017 TAF has started to reflect the shift from air taxi to air carrier operations with strong growth in air carrier numbers, but it has not decreased the number of air taxi operations to address the transition. Therefore, the TAF projections for commercial activity at EWN are higher than forecasted. It is expected that subsequent revisions to the TAF will address this inconsistency. Commercial operations forecasts are 8.3 percent below the TAF in 2021 and 14.8 percent below the TAF in 2026. While these percentages may seem large, the difference amounts to less than two flights per day, likely on a Part 135 aircraft. TAF enplanement projections for EWN do not support such high operations numbers for scheduled service, and cargo operators have indicated that the existing frequency is sufficient for their expected needs.


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2.11 General Aviation Forecasts

General aviation forecasts consider itinerant and local operations, and based aircraft. General aviation is a broad category that includes recreational flying, business aviation, flight instruction, and emergency services. Put another way, general aviation is everything that is not commercial or military. Section 5 is organized by itinerant operations forecasts, local operations forecasts, and based aircraft forecasts. A summary is included in Figure 2-36..

Figure 2-36: General Aviation Forecast Summary Year 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 CAGR

Total GA Operations 25,738 27,000 28,500 30,700 32,900 1.2% Itinerant GA Operations 15,045 16,200 17,500 19,200 21,600 1.8%

Local GA Operations 10,693 11,400 12,100 12,900 13,800 1.3% Total Based Aircraft 83 84 85 88 94 0.6%

Single Engine Piston 72 68 67 65 65 -0.5% Jet 3 5 6 9 11 6.7%

Multi Engine Piston 3 3 3 3 3 0.0% Helicopter 2 3 3 5 7 6.5%

Experimental / Light Sport 3 5 6 6 8 5.0%

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate, GA = General Aviation

2.11.1Itinerant General Aviation Operations Methods

Itinerant general aviation operations at EWN have declined by 2,000 annual operations over the past ten years with a CAGR of -1.6 percent; however, operations totals have shown growth since the 2009 recession with a CAGR of 1.8 percent over the past five years. Regression analysis shows that the itinerant operations have shown strongest historical correlation with national itinerant general aviation operations, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. Itinerant operations did not show strong correlation with local socioeconomic factors like MSA population, Income, GRP, or Retail Sales. Forecast methods look at continuing the post-recession recovery and using the five-year historical CAGR, using the more conservative national itinerant general aviation operations CAGR of 0.3 percent, and a hybrid approach that blends the national growth rate over the first five years of the forecast then using a ratio of operations per based aircraft (OPBA) from the preferred based aircraft forecast beyond five years. Itinerant General Aviation Operations forecasts are shown in Figure 2-37.


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Figure 2-37: Itinerant General Aviation Operations Forecasts

Year 2017 TAF Local GR National GR Hybrid

2016 15,045 15,045 15,045 15,045

2021 16,133 16,400 15,200 16,200

2026 16,188 18,000 15,500 17,500

2031 16,243 19,700 15,700 19,200

2036 16,298 21,500 15,900 21,600

CAGR 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% 1.8%

Local/National GR = Local/National Growth Rate Hybrid = National GR growth rate of 0.3 percent from 2016 to 2018, followed by an OPBA growth rate of 1.3 percent to 1.4 percent from 2029 to 2036 CAGR: Compound Average Growth Rate


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Itinerant GA operations have been highly volatile over the past ten years, responding to economic pressure and following similar trends to the rest of the nation. TAF forecasts show a slight growth over the next 20 years at a CAGR of 0.4 percent. Operations have not returned to pre-recession levels which suggests that as industry continues to recover and businesses look to travel more, general aviation will meet the needs of some travelers. The National Growth Rate provides a conservative estimate for near term growth, and operations at EWN have historically performed similarly to national trends. A point of concern with the National Growth Rate forecast is that over the past three years, EWN has seen operations growth occur at a faster rate than the national level, and as shown in Figure 2-19 [Relative Change in Itinerant GA Ops], EWN operations are proportionally closer to pre-recession levels than the U.S. as a whole. For these reasons, the National Growth Rate forecast is not preferred on its own, but instead incorporated into the Hybrid Approach that addresses upward potential. The local growth rate forecast provides insight into the changing trends at EWN; however, it does not tell the entire story due to the forecasted change in the based aircraft fleet, discussed in Section 2.12. For this reason, the local growth rate methods are merged with an operations per based aircraft method described in the Hybrid Forecast, below. The hybrid approach provides a more stable near-term growth rate, which is in line with the slow return to growth exhibited by the national economy. It reflects the upward potential exhibited by the past three years of growth in the later years of the forecast, and since it is based on operations per based aircraft beyond two years, it includes factors that will influence growth in general aviation at EWN. The preferred Hybrid Forecast is within 0.6 percent below the TAF in 2021, and within 8.0 percent of the TAF in 2026.


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2.11.3 Local Operations Methods

Local general aviation operations at EWN have declined by 5,000 annual operations over the past ten years with a CAGR of -3.8 percent; however, operations totals have shown growth since the 2009 recession with a CAGR of 1.3 percent. A key reason for this is growth in flight training as the flight school gained certification and students coming from the military could use the G.I. Bill to fund their education. Regression analysis shows that the itinerant operations have performed similarly to national local general aviation operations, with a correlation coefficient of 0.74. Local operations did not show strong correlation with local socioeconomic factors like MSA population, Income, GRP, or Retail Sales. Forecast methods look at continuing the post-recession recovery and using the five-year historical CAGR, using the more conservative national local general aviation operations CAGR of 0.2 percent, and an approach that uses a ratio of operations per based aircraft (OPBA) from the preferred based aircraft forecast. Local General Aviation Operations forecasts are shown in Figure 2-38. 2.11.4 Preferred and TAF Comparison

OPBA decreased from 412 in 2006 to 294 in 2011; however, the metric has exhibited some recovery over the past five years, climbing to 310 in 2016. Tenant estimates suggest that 75 percent of local operations at EWN are a result of flight training activity, and much of the growth in OBPA is expected to be tied to this. Flight school records for hours flown support this claim. The flight school expects to do similar business in FY2017 as they did in FY2016. Continued business from military personnel and demand for pilots in the airline industry will support growth in flight training operations at EWN. The issue with the OPBA methodology is that ten percent of the based aircraft (considering nine flight training aircraft) are driving 80 percent of the local operations. For this reason, the OPBA is not preferred as a stand-alone methodology.

The other side of the local operations equation is the 25 percent of operations that come from recreational tenants. It is expected that if the airport can attract additional tenants, particularly in the growing light sport and experimental aircraft markets, then local operations will increase. For this reason, the local growth rate is the preferred local operations forecast as is includes a comprehensive picture of flight training and recreational activity. This methodology produces slightly lower operations numbers than the OPBA forecast, but shows a growth trend which is expected to be reasonable through strong flight training activity and the addition of light sport and experimental aircraft to the based aircraft fleet over the years.


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The preferred forecast is 2.5 percent below the TAF in 2021 and 3.2 percent above the TAF in 2026. Like the TAF for itinerant GA operations, the TAF for local GA operations show a large spike from 2016 to 2017, followed by relatively flat growth after. This spike causes the forecast to be below the TAF in the first five years and above it for the remaining forecast years.

Figure 2-38: Local General Aviation Operations Forecasts

Year 2017 TAF Local GR National GR OPBA

2016 10,693 10,693 10,693 10,693

2021 11,695 11,400 10,900 11,300

2026 11,730 12,100 11,200 11,800

2031 11,765 12,900 11,400 12,800

2036 11,800 13,800 11,600 14,100

CAGR 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 1.4%

Local/National GR = Local/National Growth Rate OPBA: Operations per Based Aircraft CAGR: Compound Average Growth Rate


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2.12 Based Aircraft Methods

Based aircraft at EWN have remained constant over the past ten years with a CAGR of 0.2 percent. Airport records in 2016 are at the high end of the ten year history with 83, and 2012/2013 were the low end with 79. The Airport currently has a waiting list for hangar space with ten aircraft on it. These aircraft are primarily single engine piston aircraft.

Total based aircraft have shown strongest historical correlation with U.S. Gross Domestic Product, with a correlation coefficient of 0.47 which is a weak positive correlation. On an individual basis, SEP aircraft showed strong correlation with National Itinerant Operations (0.80), jets showed strong correlation with MSA Population (0.81), MSA Employment (0.80), and MSA Gross Regional Product (0.85), and Exp. aircraft showed strong correlation with U.S. Gross Domestic Product (0.86). MEP and helicopters did not exhibit strong correlation with any of the variables considered.

Forecast methods look at continuing the ten-year historical CAGR for EWN, using the more conservative national CAGR of -0.4 percent, regression forecasts based on U.S. GDP, and a hybrid approach that used regression analysis for Jet, and Exp. aircraft, and national growth rates for SEP, MEP, and helicopters. Based aircraft forecasts are shown in Figure 2-39.

The 2016 TAF projections do not match 2016 airport management records by one aircraft, or 1.2 percent of the total. This difference is not significant enough to require an adjusted TAF. The 2016 TAF projects no growth over the 20-year period, which would ordinarily cause concern; however, based aircraft levels at EWN have trended nearly flat over the last ten and five year periods.


The National Growth Rate methodology applies growth rates from the FAA Aerospace Forecast, referenced in Table 2-25 to the aircraft types. The Aerospace Forecast expects that the nationwide fleet will decline by an average of 0.3 percent per year because the most common aircraft type, SEP, will decline by an average of 1.1 percent per year. SEP are the most common aircraft type at EWN, and the National Growth Trends forecast has a net loss of ten SEP aircraft, or 12 percent of the total fleet over the next 20 years. Growth rates for Jet and Exp. aircraft are positive, but these aircraft make a comparatively small part of the fleet, therefore a gain of only four aircraft is expected (two from each category). This forecast does not include any local variables and while the findings are supported by nationwide trends and the historical based aircraft levels at EWN, other methodologies incorporate local variables that help better explain based aircraft changes. The National Growth Rate forecast is not preferred.


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Figure 2-39: Based Aircraft Forecasts

Year 2017 TAF Local GR National GR GDP Hybrid

2016 83 83 83 83 83

2021 83 84 82 83 81

2026 83 85 80 84 81

2031 83 88 79 85 85

2036 83 94 77 86 84

CAGR 0.0% 0.6% -0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

2017 TAF uses airport based aircraft records (83) instead of 2017 TAF (86). Local/National GR = Local/National Growth Rate GDP: Gross Domestic Product CAGR: Compound Average Growth Rate Regression Statistics GDP: Adjusted R2 =0.13, Regression Equation = 74.95+(0.0004*GDP) Hybrid: SEP: Adjusted R2=0.59, Regression Equation=64.52+(0.0006*National Itinerant Operations) Jet: Adjusted R2=0.75, Regression Equation=-9.07+(-3.9E-05*MSA Population)+(2.4E-03*MSA GRP)+(2.7E-05*MSA Employment) Exp: Adjusted R2=0.74, Regression Equation=-9.03+(0.0006*Gross Domestic Product)


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The GDP regression forecasts has a 0.2 percent CAGR, and produces similar results to the Hybrid Forecast. Both forecasts project that economic improvement, either in the EWN MSA or the U.S. as a whole, will lead to growth in aircraft ownership. Key differences do exist between the two. The Hybrid Forecast looks at aircraft by type, instead of based aircraft as a total. This allows it to be sensitive to underlying growth patterns. Further, the Hybrid Forecast does not rely on only one socioeconomic metric to base its projections; this providing a more diverse perspective on the local economy. Finally, while GDP exhibited the strongest correlation to total based aircraft relative to the others considered; the correlation can be described as “weak-positive” at best. Correlation between the variables used in the regression analyses in the Hybrid Forecast exhibited must stronger correlation, and the resulting R2 values illustrate that they produce a better model. Unfortunately, the methodology is limited by the available hangar space at EWN, which has capped growth. If the Airport is successful in attracting a hangar developer, it is expected that based aircraft numbers will exceed these forecasts; therefore, they are not preferred.

The Local Growth Rate forecast produced high growth compared to other methods. This forecast is driven by stable SEP and growth in Jet, Experimental, and Helicopter aircraft. This forecast reflects trends in EWN over the last ten years, and given the stable nature of GA and the hangar waiting list at the Airport, this trend is expected to continue. Tenants have suggested that there is a shortage of available hangar space at EWN, but if this were to be addressed through hangar development, then more aircraft would be based at the Airport. The Local Growth Rate Forecast is preferred.

Due to the flatness of the TAF, and the restructuring on the fleet mix in the Local Growth Forecast, projections are above the TAF by 1.2 percent (or one based aircraft) in the five-year period, and above the TAF by 2.4 percent (or two based aircraft) in the ten year period. A breakdown of the Local Growth Forecast by aircraft type is shown in Figure 2-40.

Figure 2-40: Local Growth Rate Based Aircraft Forecast Fleet Year SEP Jet MEP Helicopter Exp. Total 2016 72 3 3 2 3 83

2021 68 5 3 3 5 84

2026 67 6 3 3 6 85

2031 65 9 3 5 6 88

2036 65 11 3 7 8 94

CAGR -0.5% 6.7% 0.0% 6.5% 5.0% 0.6%

CAGR = Compound Average Growth Rate Jet includes turbo jet and turbo prop aircraft


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2.13 Peak Forecasts and Critical Aircraft

Peak forecasts are used to calculate space requirements and the critical aircraft is used to determine setbacks, clear areas, and pavement dimensions. Each of these variables will be used in the facility requirements and development alternatives chapters, and the basis for improvements that they justify comes from the forecasts.

2.13.1 Peak Period Forecasts

Peak forecasts estimate when certain airport facilities will be at their busiest, and is used to assess level of service of airfield and terminal facilities, and to scale improvement projects. Improvement projects are not typically designed for the busiest hour of the busiest day of the year, because such a design would lead to over-building. Instead, peak forecasts look at a typical busy period throughout the year. Forecasts base expected peaking on historical records, therefore it is essential that peak forecasts be reevaluated if a change in user or aircraft type occurs. Peak forecasts are presented in Figure 2-41.

Figure 2-41: EWN Peak Period Forecasts

Factor Passenger Enplanements Aircraft Operations

100% 10.2% 3.7% 30.9% 100% 10.9% 5.9% 7.1%

Year Annual Month Day Hour Annual Month Day Hour

2016 105,440 10,713 398 123 33,676 3,680 218 16 2021 116,400 11,826 439 136 36,700 4,010 237 17 2026 139,200 14,143 525 162 38,900 4,251 252 18 2031 166,400 16,906 628 220 41,800 4,567 270 19 2036 198,900 20,208 751 263 46,100 5,037 298 21

Peak month for enplanements and operations is July, based on T-100 data for passengers and FAA OPSNET data for operations. Peak day is based on airline schedules for July for enplanements, and FAA OPSNET daily activity records for operations. Peak hour is based on airline schedules for enplanements, and an estimate provided by ATCT staff for operations.

Annual totals have a factor applied to them that corresponds to the historical peak period. Operations factors are based on ATCT and FAA OPSNET records, and enplanement factors are based on T-100 monthly passenger data, and flight schedules. The month, day, and hour factors are based on the percentage of enplanements and operations that have occurred on the busiest month of the year, day of the week, and time of day, respectively. Annual total multiplied by peak month percentage equals peak month, peak month multiplied by peak day percentage equals peak day, and peak hour percentage multiplied by peak day percentage equals peak hour.


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2.14 Critical Aircraft

The critical aircraft is the most demanding type, or group of aircraft with similar characteristics, to operate over 500 times per year at an airport. Operations by aircraft type comes from FAA Traffic Flow Management System Counts (TFMSC), and shows that scheduled commercial and freight aircraft are the most demanding to operate over 500 times per year at EWN. TFMSC only captures aircraft that file flight plans, therefore, flight training aircraft that operate more frequently than those listed below are not represented. Flight training aircraft are smaller and slower than the scheduled commercial aircraft in the chart below, therefore, their absence from the TFMSC rankings has no bearing on the critical aircraft selection.

Critical aircraft are categorized by aircraft approach category (AAC) and aircraft design group (ADG).

Figure 2-42: 2016 Critical Aircraft Rank Aircraft Total Operations Aircraft Reference Code

1 Bombardier Dash 8-300 2,756 A-III

2 Bombardier CRJ-200 2,080 C-II

3 Cessna 208 Caravan 1,290 B-II

4 ATR 42-200/300/320 526 B-III

5 Bombardier Dash 8-100 400 A-III

8 Bombardier CRJ-700 192 C-II

31 Bombardier CRJ-900 16 C-II

Source: TFMSC for FY2016 Bombardier CRJ-700 and CRJ-900 included because airlines are transitioning to these aircraft and away from Dash 8-300, Dash 8-100, and CRJ-200.

Based on TFMSC data, the most demanding aircraft approach category is C and the most demanding design group is III. Although there are no C-III aircraft that operate over 500 times per year at EWN, the fleet mix, with AAC C and ADG III aircraft both operating over 2,000 times per year supports planning facilities to meet C-III standards.

It is expected that the future critical aircraft will be whatever jet replaces the Dash-8 and CRJ-200 aircraft. American has begun using CRJ-700s, which has an ARC of C-II. FedEx has indicated that the ATR-42 will continue to serve EWN for the time being, which is an ADG III aircraft. This supports continuing to plan for AAC C and ADG III aircraft at EWN. C-III includes other common passenger aircraft, including some narrow body jets like the Airbus A320 and the smaller variants of the Boeing 737.


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2.15 Forecast Summary

The aviation activity forecasts project slow sustained growth in aviation activity at EWN over the first ten years, followed by a period of higher growth over the second ten years. This growth is driven by a strengthening local economy, including boosts in the health care sector, stable jobs in military and civilian government employment, and immigration of working-age citizens to the MSA. The MSA has demonstrated that it has the true market to support larger aircraft if flight frequencies are convenient and fares are competitive, and the new larger aircraft may accelerate passenger enplanement growth if the airlines maintain existing levels of service, or make slight improvements. The FAA has standardized forms for forecast summary and TAF comparison, which are presented in Figure 2-43 and Figure 2-44. Figure 2-43: Preferred Forecast and 2017 TAF Comparison

AIRPORT NAME: Coastal Carolina Regional Airport

Airport AF/TAF Year Forecast TAF (% Difference)

Passenger EnplanementsBase yr. 2016 105,440 105,440 0.0%Base yr. + 5yrs. 2021 116,400 124,226 -6.3%Base yr. + 10yrs. 2026 139,200 131,382 6.0%Base yr. + 15yrs. 2031 166,400 141,009 18.0%Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2036 198,900 152,037 30.8%

Commercial OperationsBase yr. 2016 6,466 6,466 0.0%Base yr. + 5yrs. 2021 7,600 8,288 -8.3%Base yr. + 10yrs. 2026 7,800 9,154 -14.8%Base yr. + 15yrs. 2031 8,200 9,809 -16.4%Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2036 9,200 10,548 -12.8%

Total OperationsBase yr. 2016 33,676 33,676 0.0%Base yr. + 5yrs. 2021 36,700 37,588 -2.4%Base yr. + 10yrs. 2026 38,900 38,544 0.9%Base yr. + 15yrs. 2031 41,800 39,289 6.4%Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2036 46,100 40,118 14.9%

NOTES: TAF data is on a U.S. Government fiscal year basis (October through September). AF/TAF (% Difference) column has embedded formulas.


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Figure 2-44: EWN Forecast Summary

Template for Summarizing and Documenting Airport Planning Forecasts

A. Forecast Levels and Growth Rates AIRPORT NAME: Coastal Carolina Regional Airport Specify base year: 2016

Average Annual Compound Growth RatesBase Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1yr. Base Yr. + 5yrs. Base Yr. + 10yrs. Base Yr. + 15yrs. Base Yr. + 20yrs. Base yr. to +1 Base yr. to +5 Base yr. to +10 Base yr. to +15 Base yr. to +20

Passenger Enplanements Air Carrier 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commuter 105,440 107,500 116,400 139,200 166,400 198,900 2.0% 2.0% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% TOTAL 105,440 107,500 116,400 139,200 166,400 198,900 2.0% 2.0% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2%

Operations Itinerant Air carrier 192 1,500 4,000 5,600 6,300 7,000 681.3% 83.5% 40.1% 26.2% 19.7% Commuter/air taxi 6,274 5,700 3,600 2,200 1,900 2,200 -9.1% -10.5% -9.9% -7.7% -5.1% Total Commercial Operations 6,466 7,200 7,600 7,800 8,200 9,200 11.4% 3.3% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8% General aviation 15,045 15,100 16,200 17,500 19,200 21,600 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% Military 558 600 600 600 600 600 7.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% Local General aviation 10,693 10,800 11,400 12,100 12,900 13,800 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% Military 914 900 900 900 900 900 -1.5% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% TOTAL OPERATIONS 33,676 34,600 36,700 38,900 41,800 46,100 2.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%

Instrument Operations 10,298 11,080 11,774 12,305 13,115 14,683 7.6% 2.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8%Peak Hour Operations 16 16 17 18 19 21 2.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%Cargo/mail (enplaned+deplaned tons) 2,034 2,100 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%

Based Aircraft Single Engine (Nonjet) 72 71 68 67 65 65 -1.4% -1.1% -0.7% -0.7% -0.5% Multi Engine (Nonjet) 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Jet Engine 3 3 5 6 9 11 0.0% 10.8% 7.2% 7.6% 6.7% Helicopter 2 2 3 3 5 7 0.0% 8.4% 4.1% 6.3% 6.5% Other 3 4 5 6 6 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% TOTAL 83 83 84 85 88 94 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%

B. Operational FactorsBase Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1yr. Base Yr. + 5yrs. Base Yr. + 10yrs. Base Yr. + 15yrs. Base Yr. + 15yrs.

Average aircraft size (seats) Air carrier 79.0 68.0 70.0 70.0 75.0 76.0 Commuter 49.8 50.0 48.0 50.0 0.0 0.0Average enplaning load factor Air carrier 61.9% 70.0% 70.0% 72.5% 75.0% 79.0% Commuter 77.1% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 0.0% 0.0%GA operations per based aircraft 310 312 329 348 365 377

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Chapter 2: Aviation Demand Forecasts · Chapter 2: Aviation Demand Forecasts 2.0 Forecast Summary . Over the next 20 years, the face of commercial operations at EWN will change as