Market perspectives on technology and ageing volker eichener

Home sweet home

London-conference | 31st of January 2013

Volker Eichener / Friederike Külpmann / Viktor GrinewitschusEBZ Business School – University of Applied Sciences

I-stay@homeThe Market Perspective

ISAH-conference | 31st of January 2013 | London - www.i-stay-home.eu


How people really want to live in their old age:

1 Introduction | Elderly people wish to stay in their homes

Source: comdirect/forsa 2012


1 Introduction | Problems with housing

0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0%

Treppensteigen

Baden

Mahlzeiten zubereiten

Duschen/Waschen

Heizen

Umhergehen

Bett besteigen/verlassen

Setzen/Aufstehen

Toiletten benutzen

65- bis 79jährige 80jährige und ältere

using the toilet

sitting down/rising

entering/leaving bed

moving inside flat

heating

showering/washing

preparing meals

bathing

climbing stairs

65 thru 79 80 and older


2 | Request for Information (RFI) | product survey

Online survey of providers of Information Communication Technology (ICT) solutions that will aid the elderly and disabled people to live more independently in their homes

UKGermanyFranceNetherlands Belgiumand other countries

October 2012 thru January 2013

114 valid responses


2 | RFIs | Survey, overview and product catalogue

valid responses:

114 entries in 8 categories:

1 | Telemedicine = 15

2 | Daily Life Organisation = 25

3 | Wellness-Aspect = 30

4 | Special Sensor Technology = 3

5 | Home Automation = 16

6 | Help for limited motor skills = 6

7 | Accessibility = 8

8 | Other = 8

x | not specified = 3


Suppliers from 10 countries:

- Austria = 2- Belgium = 4- Finland = 1- France = 27- Germany = 38- Italy = 1- The Netherlands = 8- Singapore = 1- Switzerland = 1- United Kingdom = 30- not specified = 1


xx

x

x

x x

xx

x


6 market-phases:

1 | pre-market phase = 11

2 | start-up phase = 24

3 | growth phase = 36

4 | maturity phase = 12

5 | saturation phase = 1

6 | degeneration phase = 1

X | not specified = 29


1 | Excel-sheet -> research catalogueThe product catalogue will be provided as an excel-sheet to all the ISAH-partners. In here, the answers to all questions of the survey can be found. So the products can be easily compared to each other.

2 | pdf-overview - > product catalogueIn addition EBZ has been working out a physical catalogue to give a general overview about the products. This catalogue will be filled with different information and photos of the products and concepts.





2 | RFIs / categories / 1_ Telemedicine

Tele-physiotherapy

- System provides therapeutic treatment or care to patients at home

-The patient is put in a position to conduct a therapy session on his own, under constant supervision by a therapist via TV or PC.

Example


2 | RFIs / categories / 2_ Daily Life Organisation

Interactive assistant- and communication-system

- ICT-platform-iQuare deals with a wide variety of demands, such as communication, service, care, organisation and convenience services, operates via TV or PC, offers video- conferences, calendar, mailing, etc.

Example


2 | RFIs / categories / 3_ Wellness-Aspect

Automatedlight system

- system supports the sleep-wake cycle by regulating melatonin using different intensities and colour temperatures

Example


2 | RFIs / categories / 4_ Special Sensor Technology

Large area sensor system / fall alert

- people suffering from dementia are often suffering from additional conditions, that pose the threat of causing them to hurt themselves or fall

-The floor system can be easily integrated to an apartment and sounds an alarm when a person falls, provides activity monitoring and informs staff members via call or radio system.

Example


2 | RFIs / categories / 5_ Home Automation

Radio based home automation system

Radio-based highly encrypted home automation system to increase

- energy efficiency

-> demand-oriented heating- comfort

-> automatic control of lighting- security

-> motion detectors, window sensors, smoke detectors

Example


2 | RFIs / categories / 6_ Help for limited motor skills

Washbasin lifter

Automatic lifter to get easily access to the washbasin, independently.

Modifiable regarding the

Possible increasing care level.

Example


2 | RFIs / categories / 7_ Accessibility

Sanitary and architectural hardware products

Different products to provide accessibility in the private bathroom

-Toilets-Washbasins-Shower-equipment

Example


2 | RFIs / categories / 8_ Other...

Biography Work

Personal memories, old music, old sayings collected by the person suffering from dementia or the family in a book to browse through.

Use depending on the actual care level: Book can either be used by the person itself or the people taking care. So they can help to remember the life.

Example



2 | RFIs / Evaluation concept

Criteria

1. Effectiveness2. Usabilty3. Maturity4. Reliability5. Cost6. Economic feasibility7. Effort-level of installing8. Ethics / Privacy


2 | RFIs / Evaluation concept

The assessment structure is: 1. Theoretical assessment (based on suppliers experiences)

2. Theoretical assessment (based on housing companies´ experiences)

3. Assessment of test installations at EBZ or in sample houses (eg. smarthomes)

4. Expert reviews (combined theoretical assessment and product test)

5. User reviews (combined theoretical assessment and product test)


3 | Close-up at “ubiquiet” (France)

Lf1 | Ubiquiet (France)

Connecting box helps elderly people:

- to get in contact with the family

- to take on more tasks / responsibilities

- to participate in senior citizens meeting

- to be informed about cultural and religious activities

- gives accompanying services

- involves Home Care and outpatient nursing service

The Lf1 offers- a medical information system, personalized health system,- eHealth and activity check

- simulation of presence and absence

- a reminder system

- heating-, light, temperature- and ventilation control





Connecting box helps elderly people

Possible business models:

a) Purchase by end user - has to pay the full price at time of purchase - may use the system for limited time only - responsible for maintenance - risk of breakdown

b) Purchase by housing company - investment by housing company

- depreciation of purchase price and installation cost over lifespan

- provision of service (maintenance, social assistance) - reinstallation if use is terminated - monthly rent including service and administration fee

x





Connecting box helps elderly people

Cost calculation, lifespan: 5 years

1. Purchase price = 350,00 €2. Installation (approx) = 200,00 €3. Reinstallation (approx) = 200,00 €

Total investment: = 750,00 €

Depreciation p.a. (5 years) = 150,00 €

4. Monthly costs:- depreciation = 12,50 €- monthly rate = 30,00 €- service provider =

30,00 €

- admin fee (15 %) = 10,88 €

Total cost per month: = 83,38 €


How to calculate the market size:

1.Number of aged households.

2.Composition of aged households.

3.Income of aged households.

4.Affordability of different product/price levels.

5.Annual expenses multiplied by number of aged households = maximum market size.

6.Market penetration over time: development of actual market.

4 | Analysis of market perspective and target groups Methodology:

The result is an educated guess, based on statistics, estimates and analogies!


Total Population + future prospects | EU-wide 2010

Country 2010 2060

Belgium 10.8 M 13.4 M

France 62.8 M 74.0 M

Germany 82.3 M 72.4 M

Netherlands 16.6 M 17.0 M

UK 62.0 M 73.5 M

4 | Analysis of market perspective and target groups Elderly people in words + figures


Population of elderly people 65+EU-wide, 2010

4 | Analysis of market-perspective and target-groups Elderly people in words + figures

Information unit GER F UK NL B ISAH

Total population of elderly people

Total population, 2010 people 82.300.000 62.800.000 62.000.000 16.600.000 10.800.000 234.500.000

ratio population aged 65+ % 23 16 16 15 18

aged 65 - 79 % 2180+ % 2

Total people aged 65 + people 18.929.000 10.048.000 9.920.000 2.490.000 1.944.000 43.331.000

aged 65 - 79 people 17.283.00080+ people 1.646.000

ratio women % 57 59 57 57 59ratio Men % 43 41 43 43 41

Total women aged 65+ women 10.789.530 5.928.320 5.654.400 1.419.300 1.146.960 24.938.510Total men aged 65+ men 8.139.470 4.119.680 4.265.600 1.070.700 797.040 18.392.490

please exchange dot for comma


Typical household-structure | singles, couples, other EU-wide | Statistisches Bundesamt, 2009



Household-structure (singles, couples, etc.)

people aged 65+ singles % 34 36 25 36 24,5people aged 65+ living as a couple % 57 54 62,5 59 57

people aged 65+ // other... % 9 9 12,5 5 18,5

absolute people aged 65+ singles people 6.435.860 3.617.280 2.480.000 896.400 476.280 13.905.820absolute people aged 65+ living as a couple people 10.789.530 5.425.920 6.200.000 1.469.100 1.108.080 24.992.630

absolute people aged 65+ // other... people 1.703.610 904.320 1.240.000 124.500 359.640 4.332.070




Number of households | couples, women, men EU-wide | Statistisches Bundesamt, 2009


Number of households (M hh = Milion households)

number households of singles M hh 6,4 3,6 2,5 0,9 0,5 13,9number households couples M hh 5,4 2,7 3,1 0,7 0,6 12,5

number households other (10%) M hh 0,17 0,09 0,12 0,01 0,04 0,43total number of households M hh 12,0 6,4 5,7 1,6 1,1 26,8

ratio women aged 65 +singles % 44 32 32 42 32

living as a couple % 50 56 56 49 49other % 6 12 12 9 19

total women aged 65 +singles women 4.747.393 1.897.062 1.809.408 596.106 367.027 9.416.997

living as a couple women 5.394.765 3.319.859 3.166.464 695.457 562.010 13.138.556other % 647.372 711.398 678.528 127.737 217.922 2.382.958

total men aged 65 +singles % 18 13 18 14 17

as a couple or other % 74 74 69 76 65other % 8 13 13 10 18

total men aged 65 +singles men 1.465.105 535.558 767.808 149.898 135.497 3.053.866

living as a couple or other men 6.023.208 3.048.563 2.943.264 813.732 518.076 13.346.843other men 651.158 535.558 554.528 107.070 143.467 1.991.781



Average income of elderly people 65+EU-wide | Statistisches Bundesamt, 2008


Average income of elderly people 65+

women aged 65+ EUR 1.533 1.641 1.380 1.610 1.227 1.478,13aged 65 - 69 Eur 1.550 + 7 per cent - 10 per cent + 5 per cent - 20 per centaged 70 - 79 Eur 1.500

aged 80 + Eur 1.550

men aged 65+ EUR 2.017 2.158 1.815 2.118 1.613 1.944,07aged 65 - 69 Eur 1.700 + 7 per cent - 10 per cent + 5 per cent - 20 per centaged 70 - 79 Eur 2.050

aged 80 + Eur 2.300

couples aged 65+ EUR 3.083 3.299 2.775 3.238 2.467 2.972,33aged 65 - 69 Eur 3.200 + 7 per cent - 10 per cent + 5 per cent - 20 per centaged 70 - 79 Eur 3.100

aged 80 + Eur 2.950

4 | Analysis of market-perspective and target-groups financial situation



4 | Analysis of market-perspective and target-groups EBZ-definitions based on statistics

Definition of income-groups for I-stay-@-home

average income < 1.000 € = 0 Euraverage income between 1.000-2.000 € = 75 Euraverage income between 2.000 - 3.000 = 75 Eur

average income per group (women, men, couples) = 150 Eur = Standardaverage income > 4.000 € = 225 Eur = Luxury

= Low cost

How much can elderly people afford for ICT solutions?

Three levels of technical solutions:

low cost, standard, luxury

public aid required for 15 to 20% of aged

population





Income groups for I-stay-@-home

Couples, ratio1. Low cost % 45 45 45 45 452. Standard % 40 40 40 40 40

3. Luxury % 15 15 15 15 15

Single women, ratio1. Low cost % 85 85 85 85 852. Standard % 10 10 10 10 10

3. Luxury % 5 5 5 5 5

Single men, ratio1. Low cost % 65 65 65 65 652. Standard % 25 25 25 25 25

3. Luxury % 10 10 10 10 10

Couples, aboslute1. Low cost M hh 2,4 1,2 1,4 0,3 0,22. Standard M hh 2,2 1,1 1,2 0,3 0,2

3. Luxury M hh 0,8 0,4 0,5 0,1 0,1

Single women, absolute1. Low cost M hh 4,0 1,6 1,5 0,5 0,32. Standard M hh 0,5 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,0

3. Luxury M hh 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0

Single men, absolute1. Low cost M hh 0,95 0,35 0,50 0,10 0,092. Standard M hh 0,37 0,13 0,19 0,04 0,03

3. Luxury M hh 0,15 0,05 0,08 0,01 0,01

distribution of income groups




Number of households regarding the income-groups for I-stay-@-home (Milion households)

Low cost M hh 7,42 3,18 3,43 0,93 0,65 15,61Standard M hh 3,00 1,41 1,61 0,39 0,29 6,70

Luxury M hh 1,19 0,56 0,63 0,15 0,12 2,65total absolute M hh 11,61 5,15 5,68 1,48 1,06 24,97


Total sum in € regarding the income-groups for I-stay-@-home (Milion Euro)

Low cost M Eur 6.674 2.863 3.089 841 584 14.052Standard M Eur 5.398 2.536 2.903 704 526 12.067

Luxury M Eur 3.221 1.499 1.707 418 311 7.157total absolute M Eur 15.293 6.899 7.699 1.963 1.421 33.275


Annual expenses multiplied by number of households in € = maximum market perspective for I-Stay@home: 33 millard € p.a. in five countries



4 | Analysis of market-perspective and target-groups Conclusion

Problem: Not every aged household willpurchase an ICT solution immediately!

So we compared the market for ICT solutions to the market of mobile phones from 1992 - 2007!


Empirical market penetration of mobile phones (starting from 1992)

Hypothetical market penetration of I-stay@home technologies (starting from 2015)

4 | Market penetration

half speed = conservative estimate


4 | Analysis of market perspective and target groups Conclusion

Total sum in € regarding the income-groups for I-stay-@-home (Milion Euro) 33,3 MRD €

Year usage mobile phone usage of mobile phoneyear of usage ICT-solution estimated usage of ICT-solutionestimated € unit

1992 1,2% 2015 0,6% 0,20 MRD €1993 2,2% 2016 1,1% 0,37 MRD €1994 3,0% 2017 1,5% 0,50 MRD €1995 4,6% 2018 2,3% 0,77 MRD €1996 6,8% 2019 3,4% 1,13 MRD €1997 10,1% 2020 5,1% 1,68 MRD €1998 17,0% 2021 8,5% 2,83 MRD €1999 23,5% 2022 11,7% 3,91 MRD €2000 48,2% 2023 24,1% 8,03 MRD €2001 56,1% 2024 28,1% 9,35 MRD €2002 59,1% 2025 29,6% 9,85 MRD €2003 64,8% 2026 32,4% 10,79 MRD €2004 71,3% 2027 35,7% 11,87 MRD €2005 79,3% 2028 39,7% 13,20 MRD €2006 85,6% 2029 42,8% 14,25 MRD €2007 97,1% 2030 48,6% 16,17 MRD €

Comparison mobile phones to ICT solutions:

from 200 million to 16 millard € per year in five countries

educated guess



4 | Analysis of market perspective and target groups What has to be done?

Current status of technology:

-stand-alone solutions (single gadgets)-limited functionality-complicated purchase/installation/ maintenance-poor value for money-inadequate business models (e.g. purchase by end user)

-integration into an ICT platform is badly required

-degression of costs by economies of scales

-business models by housing companies


I-stay@home... is going on!

home sweet home home smart

home

contact: [email protected] www.ebz-business-school.de

Documents

Market perspectives on technology and ageing volker eichener