Management Evolution Ido Lapidot Innovation2012 Innovation Ido Lapidot Innovation2012

ManagementEvolutionIdo Lapidot

Innovation2012

Innovation

Ido Lapidot Innovation2012

Self Awareness

?


Scale of Inteligent

Intelligent Systems

NewIntelligent?


Evolution Any change across successive generations in the heritable characteristics of populations

Biology – Genes (Gene and GenePlex)

Knowledge – Memes (Meme and MemePlex)

• A Meme - a replicator unit carrying cultural ideas, symbols or practices, which can be transmitted from one mind to another through writing, speech, gestures, rituals or other imitable phenomena

– A replicator is anything of which copies are made (Gene, Meme)– A vehicle interacts with the environment (Organism, Product)

Example: X86, GEN, AVX etc are memes forming a MemePlex => Intel


Darwin Theory of Evolution1. Selection – The environment resources are

insufficient for supporting all Phenotypes, therefore those Phenotypes having the most beneficial traits are more likely to survive and reproduce hence adaptation is ever increasing

2. Heredity - accurate copying of successful traits from one generation to the next

3. Variety - new traits are introduced through a random transfer of traits by way of mating, cross-species gene transfer and mutations

When these elements exist (Selection, Variation, Heredity) Evolution take place


Evolution Mechanism

Natural Selection

Generation 1 Gen 2 Gen 3

Current Phenotype Surviving

Phenotype

Complexity Rise

Mutation/Invention

Environment Change

𝐺𝑛= 𝑓 (𝑡 ;𝐺𝑛− 1;𝐸𝑛−1)𝐸𝑛+1= 𝑓 (𝐺𝑛)

Where:G – Generationt – TimeE – Environmentn – Generation number


Evolution Model

Horizontal

Solutions Library

Parent

Parent

New variants

Filtration & development

Vertical

Invention / Mutations Natural

Selection

Survivors

Manageable

Co-Evolution

Generating Solutions

Implementation

Vertical EvolutionUse internal knowledge

Horizontal EvolutionImporting knowledge from other fields/Systems

Co-EvolutionCooperate or Compete with others players at same environment

Incubation time Ido Lapidot Innovation2012

Entropy (Boltzmann)

S = k Log(W)

• The number of possible microstates of a system in thermodynamic equilibrium• Entropy tendency - maximized the number of possible microstates

Deviations/Mutations are increasing the number of possible microstates

Therefore entropy favor innovation


Entropy

a b c

• The probabilities of all microstate are equal

• We define “Ordered” microstates based on our Conception

• Natural Selection - choosing microstates based on Functionality


Remarks

Most deviations (Mutations, Innovation) are harmful!!

As of Entropy, deviations will accrue!!!

There is a need to preserved Value adding microstates!!

Organization must have mechanism for preventing changes There is an Inherent resistance to Changes


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Main Contradiction of Evolution

Preserving efficient solutions

Introducing Changes

Too many changes system failureInsufficient changes Take over by competitions

Control deviationsAbility to defer Good microstate from Bad oneAbility to increase rate of GoodPreserving Good microstateMechanism of accurate Copying

Managing Evolution, Organization must


Biology Solution – Standardization

Changes are permitted only at dedicated zone

Lamarck’s Theory Of Evolution

1. The development of an organism is based on needs

2. Evolution happens according to a predetermined plan

3. An organism changes during its life in order to better adapt to its environment

4. Those changes are passed onto its offspring

5. The development of a trait or feature is proportional to the usage of that trait and therefore, if it is not in use, it will eventually disappear


Lamarck & Darwin Vs. Theories

• Biology – mastered by Darwinian evolution • Technology – Coexistence, but!!!


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Copying mechanismLamarck - Copy a Product Darwin - Copy a Recipe

Copy a Product Vs. Copy a Recipe

Copy a Recipe – Darwin’s type of evolution


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Copy a Product

Higher percentage of Lamarck’s type of Evolution


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Apple iPad2 is the market leader at almost any parameter.

Other’s might take the lead when “Copy a Recipe” will become their main copying mechanism

Source - CNET

Most likely - Technology Evolution is dominated by Darwinian evolution


Selfish Gene

Evolution work for the benefit of the Replicator not the Vehicle!!!

Waste of energy which is not invested in reproduction

Selfish Meme

• Suppose there are a Memes for:– Increasing Performance…– Become a Monk...– 70 virgins…

Memes Genes


Change Vs. Preservation

• How to know which change worth doing?• How to preserve good solution over time?

G. Altshuler answer - TRIZ:• Studying solutions, looking for repeated patterns• Using the Patterns as hints for efficiently identified and introducing

“Good” changes


Altshuler' s TRIZ Overview

Ideal SystemCurrent System

Trends of Evolution

Systems evolve toward Ideal system, along the trends of evolution


TRIZ Ideality

Systems evolve towards increased ideality

Performing it’s design Function with no Cost and no Harm

𝑉=∑ 𝐹

∑𝐶=

∑ 𝐹

∑ 𝑅+∑ 𝐻

V = ValueF = FunctionalityC = CostR = ResourcesH = Harm



TRIZ Trends of Evolution

Trend of Transition to a Supersystem

Trend of Increasing Degree of Trimming

Trend of Optimization of

Flows

Trend of Increasing Coordination

Trend of Increasing Controllability

Trend of Increasing Dynamicity

Trend of Non uniform Development of System

Components

Trend of System Completeness

Trend of Elimination of Human

Involvement

Young

Mid

Mature

Trend of Increasing Ideality

Trend of S-curve evolution

Convergent Evolution

Restriction Forces

Field of solutions

Predictable field of

solutions

Predictable field of

solutions

Current systemValid solutionsNon-valid solutions


Nonlinear Dynamical System

Evolution is a “Nonlinear Dynamical System,” where each generation is depending on its previous generation:

G – Generationt – TimeE – Environmentn – Generation number

𝐺𝑛= 𝑓 (𝑡 ;𝐺𝑛− 1;𝐸𝑛−1) 𝐸𝑛+1= 𝑓 (𝐺𝑛)


Nonlinear Dynamical System

Most physical systems are inherently nonlinear in nature Chaos theory - describe the behavior of dynamical systems, which

are highly sensitive to initial conditions Although such system can be deterministic, their predictability is

very low


Chaos & Convergent Evolution

Current systemValid StepNon-valid step

Restriction Forces

Combination of Chaos and Convergent Evolution can explain TRIZ observations


Reproduction, Distribution

• Same reproduction channels yield Symbiosis

• Different channels yield Parasitism



Asexual Vs. Sexual Reproduction

Adaptation

T

Sexual

Asexual


Intel’s Tick Tock

Solutions Library

Parent

Parent

New variants

Filtration & development

Vertical

Invention / Mutations Selection

SurvivorsDesign team 1

Design team 2

Incubation time

Fixed Incubation timeIncreasing # of Phenotypes by Multiplied Teams


Example: ARM model

Core - cross

species Gene

ARM

Variants are generate externally by Franchise holders

Franchise Holder

1

Franchise Holder

2

Franchise Holder

n

Increasing # of Phenotypes by Outsourcing


Example: Apps Store

New variants

Filtration

External Selection

Survivors

Managing the Filtration Phase only

External External


Innovation & Evolution management

Horizontal EvolutionOthers knowledge

InventionNew knowledge

Development& Implement

Market

Exp

osu

re

Idea ExecutionValue+

Intern

al S

election

Co EvolutionOthers Solutions

New

S

olu

tion

s

Vertical EvolutionMy knowledge

Vertical EvolutionR&DDrop BoxesIP

HorizontalWisdom of the CrowdCrowd SourcingAcquisitionNew employees

Co EvolutionWith complimentary OrgWith UniversitiesWith competition

ImplementPORExecutionProjects mang.

Summary• Innovation is one of few Evolution mechanism • There is a conflict between introducing changes and preserving good

solutions• Entropy cause innovation• Darwinian evolution is most likely dominate manmade systems

evolution• Beware of Genes to Memes conflicts • TRIZ can show you the way• There are many area in technology evolution waiting for researchers


Do not bother with Innovation

Focus on Evolution


Documents

Management Evolution Ido Lapidot Innovation2012 Innovation Ido Lapidot Innovation2012