Kimberley Zuill

21 September 2015

HAW 2015 Peak Season Briefing - BTA

1. 2014 Hurricane Season review 2. 2015 Seasonal Forecast & why & how is it lining up?

3. Review of BWS definitions of Watches & Warnings 4. Review of how BWS communications5. New BWS products

6. Real-world BWS challenges in 2014 - managing crisis beforehand… and being flexible during!

THE 2014 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

BDA

“Below Average”(seasonal numbers)

However, doubt that anyone will argue with my next statement…

For Bermuda …it was a very active hurricane season!

2014 Hurricane Season - Bermuda

• 4 (possibly 5) systems affected Bermuda  

Storm Name 

Month/DatesWatch/Warning

Issued for BermudaMaximum Wind

Speed at LF Wade

Maximum Wind on/near

Island

Significant Surge, Swell, Rainfall, Flooding &/or

Damage

CPA & other notes

Verification

Hurricane Cristobal

August 25th-28th Tropical Storm Watch issued 1630hrs 25th, ended 1130hrs 28th

30g39 knots on the 28th (late am into early pm)

39 knots (instantaneous) on the Causeway & 31g50 knots atComms Pt, Dockyard, on the 28th

Some enhanced surf along South Shore.

Approx. 245nm to the north- northwest at 6am on 28th…. 

TS Watch was on borderline of verification, 30kt on Island, possible sustained 34kt in marine area (but no obs)

Hurricane Edouard

September 15th-17th Small craft warning issued (for 9ft or more swells) at 0530hrs on 15th for Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Ended 1130hrs on 17th

N/A N/A Long period (14-15sec) swells peaking at around 9-10ft towards the east on the 16th….

Approx. 380nm to the east at 12noon on 16th. N.B. Hurricane Hunters… 

Track well forecast, intensity underplayed in initial stages…

Possible Sub-tropical depression?

September 28th-29th Small craft warning and thunderstorm advisory

25g34 knots (overnight)

31 knots (instantaneous) on the Causeway & 28g36knots at Comms Pt

Around 2.5 inches of rainfall for whole event

..waterspouts off East End on morning of 29th.  

Models were consistently poor with low location and wind forecast

Tropical Storm/*Hurricane Fay

October 11th-12th Tropical Storm Watch issued 1130hrs on 10th, with additional Hurricane Watch issued at 1630hrs on 11th. Hurricane Watch was dropped at 6am on 12th and the Tropical Storm Warning was dropped at noon on the same day.

53g71 knots at 7.34am local

80 knots on Causeway and 102 knots at Harbour Radio..

Around 2 inches. Extensive damage to trees (felled) & utility poles (downed) as well as some structural (roof) damage.

Radar imagery suggested eye centre passed just to southeast of the Island (a few miles).... 

Forecast was rather poor with Fay expected to move away northeast quicker than it did..

Hurricane Gonzalo

October 17th-18th Hurricane Watch issued 2330hrs on 14th, then superseded by a Hurricane Warning at 1630hrs on 15th. Hurricane Warning was dropped to a Tropical Storm Warning at 0530hrs….

53.9g73.1 knots at 7.14pm local before instrument failure.

109kt (instant) at Harbour Radio in initial easterly winds before anemometer failure…

Huge swells were observed breaking on outer reefs, OPC analysed up to 44ft in our area. Minimal surge (and low lying area flooding) due to low tide as eye…

CPA was a direct hit with the eye (approx. 30 miles wide) moving over the whole Island 9.30-10.15pm…

Forecast was very good, as it was with Fabian. Forecast confidence enabled early hurricane watch issuance…

ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2015

Named Storms (12.0, 15.7)

Hurricanes (6.0, 7.5)

Major Hurricanes (3.0, 3.8)

Climatology (1981-2010, 2002-2011)

• Colorado State University (Klotzbach and Gray, 2015)

Last year’s Tally

8

6

2

• 2014 Atlantic Season - NOAA/CPC – was correctly forecast to be below average

HOWEVER, It only takes one storm to make it an active season for us!

Forecast Parameter

7

3

1

Issue Date9 Apr 2015

WHY?? is it expected to be less active? Cooler SST in the main development region (MDR) closer to Africa & a strengthening El Nino (creates more shear in the tropical Atlantic, hindering development. 90% chance El Nino will continue through summer 2015 (NOAA CPC)

Fly in ointment: TRACK FORECASTING – traditionally what does form, follows the edge of the BDA-Azores high. NHC experts mention the increase of ‘Hurricane Alley/East Coast/ BDA to Canadian Maritimes’ off record as an unofficial pattern observation. Same problem as last year – expect to have systems develop near us & possibly spin up quick

To dateMid-Sept

8

2

1

Historical Record

October Secondary peakFay & Gonzalo2014

Past strong El Nino seasons - 1997

4/8 systems near BDA!!

One subtropicalSystem beginningOf June

See re-curvature!

Yet, below averageSeason.

Past strong El Nino seasons - 1987

EMILY!!!!!

See re-curvature!

“below average”Season with Respect toNumber and Intensity of systems

Past strong El Nino seasons - 1982

HUR DEBBY!!

3 nearby out of 6- One subtropical

See re-curvature!

Yet, “below average”Season

Past strong El Nino seasons - 1972

Spaghetti Network of Tropical systems

Formation of Sub-tropicals to NE - # 3 would have produced local conditions prior to formation!

Potential Threat: The centre of a tropical system is forecast to come within 400 nautical miles of Bermuda within 72 hours.

Threat: within 72 hours:

– The centre forecast to come within 100 nautical miles of Bermuda OR the effects of the tropical system are possible in 72 hrs. Possible onset of tropical storm force winds

(*TS) Hurricane Watch: 48 hours or less prior to possible onset of (TS 34-63kt) hurricane force (64 knots or more) winds.

(*TS) Hurricane Warning: (TS) Hurricane force winds within 36 hours.

* Could also include SUB Tropical Storm – Hybrid System

Threats, Watches & Warnings

BWS Operations www.weather.bm

Automated BTC telephone recordings 977, 9771, 9772, 9773

Radio interviews (including 100.1)

Marine VHF Channel 2 (Bermuda Radio)

CV & WOW BWS Weather Channels

Social Media – BWS Facebook page

News media announcements

Communications with EMO, Aviation & Marine operations via email, fax, phone, satellite phone

Full redundancy for BWS equipment, electricity and communications

Additional information provided to the EMO BWS director will email the EMO executive email group when a system is expected to

affect BDA in any way – BDA Regiment is included in executive group.

Weather briefings provided to the EMO as needed in advance of a warning issuance.

Before, during and after the event, information will be conveyed in via email to the EMO executive email group (NDC then re-distributes the information to the wider membership, as they see fit).

– Onset/cessation and directions of winds reaching the following thresholds: 34 knots (Tropical Storm force) 50 knots (potential Causeway &/or Airport closure, depends on wind direction) 64 knots (Hurricane)

– Maximum wave heights expected & the effects due to tidal levels

– Time and distance of the closest point of approach of the center of the storm

Online Video briefings - produced by BWS when the EMO cannot convene, e.g. during the event or maybe on weekends/short notice events or during preparation.

Title

24 hours

15 hours

12 hours

Eye aprox 45 min

** 4 hrs Cat3 - Cat2

HAW 2015 – Hurricane Awareness Week

Runs from May 27 – 29th 2015

Request assistance for a press release Friday/Tues please.

Available for Press Conference

Asking the public to:

– Please review/create a Hurricane Preparedness Plan for your family and business incorporating lessons from last year

– Tropical systems do not behave like winter weather – they can change very rapidly. At the watch stage, please monitor the progress carefully at the warning stage please respond to preparations

Keep updated on the official sources of information

– www.weather.bm maintained by BWS, a 24hr local operation & updated routinely – every 3 hours in tandem with NHC advisories (in threat)

for Bermuda’s official weather forecast, Watches & Warnings

– EMO website for preparation information

“ we got our big one last year… it only happens every 8-10 years so we are good now!”

It is :”just a tropical storm” …. Until one knot more and then it is a hurricane!

HAW 2015 – Community Outreach line up

Footage:June 2 week rotation– CITV documentary of BWS & Tropical promos – ZBM film crew tour of BWS & briefing – VSB to air BWS HAW videos in online newscast

Print & online – June: RG Hurricane Awareness Supplement RG article on HAW 2014

Today in Bermuda article and link to tropical awareness videos

Official Briefings: May 20th – EMO May 27th – DAOMay 26th – BAS-Serco & DCA

Facebook: BWS, BELCO &Red Cross

New BWS Products - UVIn collaboration with Bermuda Cancer and Health, BWS has been forecasting UV for a year. This May we were able to install UV monitoring equipment. Today we launched the 10min update UV index graph on weather.bm

Facebook – Social Media outreach

• Please help us promote this valuable resource

• “Poor man” alert system

• Bermuda promotion

• Public outreach• Education• Candid & fun

explanations• First hand notice

• Tropical• Tsunami

South side of Gonzalo – Feeder Rain Bands & Eye wall replacement; transition from Cat 3 to Cat 2 but losing tropical characteristics – 50 knot gust difference from sustained

New BWS Products – BWS webcam

The BWS webcam fell victim last year and was replaced with a better model.

New BWS Products – Parish Radar Map

This radar map is a zoomed in image showing the parishes, lighthouse ranges, towers and 30 fathom contour (fishing)

- updates every 2 minutes (reg scans were 10 for larger loop)

BWS Products (Behind the scene) – 90 day rainfall

Real world BWS challenges – 2014 season

– In advance of Hurricanes:

Fay – public prep: hurricane

watch issued Sat am for Sun am,

“just a TS”, media backlash

Gonzalo – public confusion (Fay

aftermath & only days to cleanup),

meetings (EMO, DAO, Press) for

Gonzalo, Prep: BWS & my home

Real world BWS challenges – 2014 season

– During Gonzalo – evacuation of observers area, government servers went down (EMO not

getting tropical email updates), Kim awake 60 hrs!

Real world BWS challenges – 2014 season

– After Gonzalo –

– mixed weather forecasts from other seemingly local sources who use US terminology “more

storms on Sun and Wed” = public panic & extra effort from BWS in public statements and

EMO meetings.

– The only time BWS had to talk about things we were NOT forecasting – combating public

confusion again

– Exhausted!! … but aftermath meetings continue followed by lots of data analysis and

communications with NHC to reanalyze Fay as a Hurricane.

Thank you for your attention

Any Questions?