Kimberley Zuill

Presented: 17 Nov 2014:

Prepared:13 October 2014

2014 EMO Briefing1. De-brief: Chronology of Fay – Wed Oct 8 pre-development through Sunday

Oct 12 direct impact

2. Still in height of tropical season

3. HAW 2014 briefing BWS warned: West Atlantic developing systems4. Tropical systems are NOT like winter storms

5. Communications – NHC, EMO, Local Media & BDA Public - esp on weekend

6. Tropical Storm Gonzolo & tropical outlook

BWS STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM FAY ZBM visit BWS Sun afternoon for statement

Wed 9th October BWS call NHC & email EMO re: potential for development on weekend.

This low had not yet been identified on their website as a probability of formation in their 5 day outlook. Due to BWS prompting NHC the probability forecast was issued on Thursday, giving a 20% probability of formation within 5 days.

This information was conveyed to the public

– BWS Forecast Discussion

– Yacht charts

– regular VSB radio broadcasts

– BWS forecast public synopsis was adjusted to highlight the fact that we were monitoring this possible development and this was disseminated on all our regular dissemination channels.

Issued Thur 6am – Possible tropical cyclone on BWS yacht charts

BWS STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM FAY BWS updated EMO with every change as the probability

increased – advising weekend impact.

NHC & BWS then began issuing advisories on newly developed Subtropical Depression Seven at noon on Friday. This depression was located around 500 nautical miles south of the Bermuda and the center point was initially forecast to pass the Island around 100 nautical miles to the southeast on Sunday morning as an intensifying Tropical Storm.  At this stage it was deemed a ‘Potential Threat’ and a ‘Tropical Storm Watch’ was issued. BWS director scripts/emails EMO executives weather component for press release – not issued.

Subtropical Depression Seven developed into Subtropical Storm Fay at 6pm on Friday around 450 nautical miles to our south and the track was altered to move closer to BDA.  It then gained enough tropical characteristics to be deemed a pure tropical storm (Fay) at 9am on Saturday morning.

BWS STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM FAY

With the storm intensifying into a strong tropical storm, and the closest point of approach getting noticeably closer to the Island for early Sunday morning, as per regular update briefings with the NHC, BWS issued a Tropical Storm Warning at 5.30am on Saturday morning.

As a consequence of this warning a press release was issued to by the EMO that day to advise the public to take the necessary precautions in advance of Tropical Storm Fay.

 

4:30pm Sat – Hurricane Watch issued

4:30pm Sat:

Hurricane Watch EMO/COMOPsAdvised beforehand

Shift of track to west by 50nm from previous advisory, meant more time in the forming eye, but delay of stronger winds due to swath to west.

-no buoy/sat wind data- No media/alert – how

to reach public?- Confirmation @ night

BWS STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM FAY

 

A further update was made at 4.30pm on Saturday, when BWS in consultation with the NHC not only issued a continuation of the Tropical Storm Warning, but also a Hurricane Watch there was a risk that temporary hurricane force winds could affect parts of the Island (especially exposed and elevated areas) in association with heavy thunderstorms during the early morning of Sunday as Fay made its closest approach and began to accelerate away to the east-northeast. The EMO & COMOPs advised accordingly.

The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remained posted through Saturday night, in advance of the expected worst conditions early Sunday morning.

Data

Last Com Point reading8:11am - N13 kt gust 67

St David’s- N 65 g 100kt

Airport – 50 g 63kt(10:34Z 53 g71kt) ½ hr prior

BDA radio: 55 gust102 kt

Media MisquotingWinds speed fromDirection 360 GreenAs 150 knots!!

Winds generally peaked at 7-8am across the Island this morning, a couple of hours later than initially forecast the evening before.

In addition, Bermuda essentially sustained a direct hit from Fay, with its expected movement toward the northeast (as per NHC indications) not occurring until after it had passed the Bermuda area.

Sustained storm force winds of 53 knots were recorded at the airport at 7.34am at which time there was also a hurricane gust of 71 knots.

More exposed and elevated parts of the Island recorded even stronger hurricane force gusts.

The extreme wind conditions began to abate around 8.30am.

BWS STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM FAY

Bermuda Weather Service would like to reiterate to the public that tropical systems are by their very nature sometimes quickly changing in both intensity and track, and that is why BWS updates the Tropical Update Bulletins every 3 hours during threat conditions.

All tropical watches and warnings should be taken seriously for this reason, with the public advised to keep up to date with the latest official forecast products via the web, cable TV channels, VSB radio and the phone tapes.

 

With the passage of Tropical Storm Fay, complacency is not an option, and on that note please be aware that Tropical Storm Gonzalo has now developed east of the Leeward Islands. The current tropical update bulletin indicates a path towards Bermuda as an intensifying hurricane later this coming week, and we strongly advise everyone to keep an eye on our regular update bulletins.

 

The Bermuda Weather Service also have an informative Facebook page which we encourage members of the public to like - www.facebook.com/BermudaWeatherService.

As a reminder, the North Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30 and it only takes one tropical system to make it a busy season for Bermuda.

2014 season – so far!

WEST Atlantic formation to our SW

“Inactive season”

Flash back to HAW briefing in May…

Fly in ointment: TRACK FORECASTING – traditionally what does form, follows the edge of the BDA-Azores high. NHC experts mention the increase of ‘Hurricane Alley/East Coast/ BDA to Canadian Maritimes’ off record as an unoffical pattern observation. Side note: Hurricane Hunter’s interest - BDA psuedo-jump point/base for 2014 season.

Now you can clearly see that although it is forecast to be a“below average” Atlantic Hurricane season… we in Bermuda cannot let our guard down!!

Past strong El Nino seasons - 1997

4/8 systems near BDA!!

One subtropicalSystem beginningOf June

See re-curvature!

Yet, below averageSeason.

Conclusions: Communications

1. BWS addressing NHC sluggish response to Fay development2. BWS need to have confirmation from EMO members that they have received the

updates esp in watch/warning phase & confirm if there are any questions or if they need more information – feels like few are reading what BWS is sending.

3. Public – how do we address not being able to reach the public esp on a weekend when Media is automated … remember there would have been no VSB 11 BWS presentation on Friday as it is off air– just Accuweather!

4. Societal changes – few watch local news, DM needs to change with communication times! Unless you are on FB people don’t know – not reaching all BDA public – how can BWS & EMO ALERT the public?!

5. Press statement on Sat – more frequent updates from BWS information6. None of this is “new” news… all the “Achilles heel” points are outlined in debriefs

of previous systems & highlighted in National Security Review and each HAW.

Thank you for your attention

Any Questions?

How can we improve for 2014 Season?

Continued United front of Information- EMO & BWS

Communication

– EMOExecutive@gov.bm worked well & was tested during LANTEX 2014

– Is there a way to improve the chain of communication beyond the EMO executive level when a tropical system might have specific impacts – e.g. just sea state events.

– Will this be through the National Disaster Coordinator, or through a wider EMO group email?

– BWS Suggested improvement – Impact based & colour coded for government department planning. Would this help??

BLUE – Sea state event: Parks (Lifeguards)

YELLOW – 50 kt threshold: Parks, Education, Transport, Causeway, etc

RED – Damages possible – All departments

BWS Operations www.weather.bm

Automated BTC telephone recordings 977, 9771, 9772, 9773

Radio interviews

Marine VHF Channel 2 (Bermuda Radio)

Cable & WOW Bermuda Weather Channels

Communications with EMO, Aviation & Marine operations via email, fax, phone, satellite phone

News media announcements

Full redundancy for BWS equipment, electricity and communications

Hurricane Warning in effect for Bermuda

Bermuda

Potential Threat: The centre of a tropical system is forecast to come within 400 nautical miles of Bermuda within 72 hours.

Threat: within 72 hours:

–The centre forecast to come within 100 nautical miles of Bermuda OR the effects of the tropical system are possible in 72 hrs. Possible onset of tropical storm force winds

(*TS) Hurricane Watch: 48 hours or less prior to possible onset of (TS 34-63kt) hurricane force (64 knots or more) winds.

(*TS) Hurricane Warning: (TS) Hurricane force winds within 36 hours.

* Could also include SUB Tropical Storm – Hybrid System

Threats, Watches & Warnings

Additional information provided to the EMO BWS director will email the EMO executive email group when a system is expected to

affect BDA in any way. Weather briefings to be provided to the EMO as needed in advance of a warning issuance.

Before, during and after the event, information will be conveyed in via email to the EMO executive email group, the NDC will then re-distribute the information to the wider membership, as they see fit. This puts the responsibility for maintaining an up-to-date email address list of relevant contacts squarely in the hands of the EMO.

– Onset/cessation and directions of winds reaching the following thresholds: 34 knots (Tropical Storm force) 50 knots (potential Causeway &/or Airport closure, depends on wind direction) 64 knots (Hurricane)

– Maximum wave heights expected & the effects due to tidal levels

– Time and distance of the closest point of approach of the centre of the storm

Online Video briefings will be produced by BWS when the EMO cannot convene, e.g. during the event or maybe on weekends/short notice events or during preparation. Only for key decision makers within EMO and your immediate decision makers. IT considerations.

Currently – Monday 13 Oct, 2014

BDA

Currently – Monday 13 Oct, 2014

BDA

Issued 6am Wed – tropical low moving into area – prior to NHC prob

BWS STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM FAY

updated at 6pm Sunday 12th October 2014

“Bermuda Weather Service (BWS) first contacted the EMO on Wednesday 9th October immediately after speaking with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami regarding concern for the development of a trough of low pressure a few hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands.

This low had not yet been identified on their website as a probability of formation in their 5 day outlook. Due to BWS prompting NHC the probability forecast was issued on Thursday, giving a 20% probability of formation within 5 days. This information was conveyed to the public in the BWS Forecast Discussion, as well as by being mentioned on our regular VSB radio broadcasts. In addition, our forecast public synopsis was adjusted to highlight the fact that we were monitoring this possible development and this was disseminated on all our regular dissemination channels.