Journal of Social Science and Humanities Researchrab.gov.rw/fileadmin/user_upload/Publications/Reports/... · 2020. 5. 19. · 67 Journal of Social Science and Humanities Research

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Journal of Social Science and Humanities Research

Vol. 2 Issue 4 April 2016 Paper 5

Climate Change in Ethiopia

Variability, Impact, Mitigation, and Adaptation

Corresponding Authors: Belay Zerga1

Getaneh Gebeyehu2

1. Department of Natural Resources Management, Wolkite University, Ethiopia-Email Address: [email protected]

2. Department of Biology, Asosa University, Ethiopia- Email Address: getanehgebeyehu- Email Address: @yahoo.com

Abstract

Climate change refers to long term fluctuations of temperature, precipitation, wind and other elements of

Earth’s climate system. It is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that

alters the composition of the global and/or regional atmosphere. Natural climate variability observed over

comparable time periods in the types of changes of temperature and rainfall. It occurs because of internal

variability within the climate system and external factors. The external causes may be natural or human induced

activity. Human activities cause climate change mainly due to fossil fuel burning and removal of forests.

Ethiopia’s contribution to GHG emissions is very low on a global scale. The emissions of greenhouse gases are

predominantly from high-income countries while the negative effects of climate change are predominantly in low

income countries. This means climate change is generally expected to hit developing countries harder than

industrialized countries. Developing countries are less capable of mitigating or adapting to the changes due to

their poverty and high dependence on the environment for subsistence. It has brought an escalating burden to

already existing environmental concerns of the country mainly by anthropogenic factors. Climate change causes

wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources,

agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. Similarly, the mainstay of

the Ethiopian economy is rain-fed agriculture, which is heavily sensitive to climate variability and change. In

addition, many species with limited geographical opportunities, restricted habitat requirements and/or small

populations are typically the most vulnerable. The Ethiopian Government has already put in place a number of

policies, strategies and programs aimed at enhancing the adaptive capacity and reducing climate variability and

change. Thus, the country’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) focuses on four pillars (namely

agriculture, forestry, renewable energy, and advanced technologies) that will support Ethiopia’s developing

green economy. Thus, this review paper tries to see climate change and its mitigation and adaptation efforts in

Ethiopia.

Key words: Climate change, Climate change variability, Climate change drivers, Impacts of climate change,

Climate change mitigation, Climate change adaptation, Ethiopia

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1. Introduction

1.1 Background

The subject of public opinion on climate change, and in particular climate change scepticism, is becoming one

of increasing interest in the social sciences (Engels et al., 2013; Hobson & Niemeyer, 2013; Koteyko et al.,

2012; Painter & Ashe, 2012; Poortinga et al., 2011). A useful summary of the subject is given by Pidgeon

(2012), in an article introducing a volume of papers on the risks associated with climate change and public

perception of these risks. Pidgeon notes that there has been a decline in public concern about climate change in

recent years, and that this is a surprise to the academic community.

The decline in climate concern, and corresponding increase in climate scepticism, has been observed in many

opinion polls in several countries. Brulle et al. (2012) observed that environmental issues are ranked low among

issues of public concern in the USA, and that within this category, global warming was ranked lowest of nine

topics in one poll. They constructed an index of climate concern, which after a peak in 2007 fell considerably.

Increase in scepticism among the USA public from 2002 to 2010 was found by Smith and Leiserowitz (2012).

Poortinga et al. (2011) report surveys showing increasing scepticism in Europe and the USA, while Whitmarsh

(2011) found a doubling in the proportion of the UK public who think climate change has been exaggerated

between surveys in 2003 and 2008.

Several papers have looked at the different levels of climate scepticism in different countries, showing

significant variation but not a consistent picture. Research has found greater news coverage of climate scepticism

in the US and the UK than in other countries such as France (Painter & Ashe, 2012), lower prominence of

scepticism in Germany compared with the UK and USA (Engels et al., 2013), more visibility of skeptical views

in the US and France compared with the UK and Germany (Grundmann & Scott, 2012), and much higher levels

of scepticism in The Netherlands, UK and USA than in Brazil and Mexico (Hagen, 2013). The relatively large

and increasing numbers of people expressing doubts about climate change has naturally prompted investigations

into the causes of this phenomenon.

An investigation into “What sceptics believe” (Hobson & Niemeyer, 2013) acknowledged the importance of

this question, studied it using interviews with volunteers, attempting to categorize sceptics into 5 groups, and

explored what impact deliberative forum discussions may have, with mixed results. Factors that have been

suggested as possible reasons for scepticism include the recent economic downturn, sceptical articles in the

media, politics and worldviews, fatigue with repetition of the message, or a run of recent cold winters. It has

been found that levels of education and science knowledge are not important factors (Kahan et al., 2012;

Whitmarsh, 2011). Brulle et al. (2012) considered several possible drivers for public concern, concluding that

the weather and provision of scientific information were relatively minor factors, while the media and political

issues are more significant. A study by Lahsen (2013) interviewed a number of climate sceptics with a physics or

meteorology background, noting their concerns regarding climate models, observing an association with age and

with conservative values. Both of these studies focus on the USA, where political aspects may be more prevalent

than elsewhere.

A potential pitfall of such studies is that is easy to muddle cause and effect. If a climate sceptic associates with

a conservative political group, does this indicate that his scepticism is politically motivated, or that the

conservative group is the only one that allows him a platform to speak? If there are increasing numbers of

sceptical articles in the media, is this an explanation for a change in public opinion, or is this media presence

merely a reflection of the change in public opinion (Krosnick & MacInnis, 2010)? In such complex social issues

it can be difficult to distinguish between correlation and causation. One further factor that may have influenced

public opinion is the 2009 “Climategate” incident in which many emails between climate scientists were released

on the internet (Grundmann, 2013; Koteyko et al., 2012; Montford, 2012). This led to some criticisms of climate

scientists regarding misleading presentation of data, bias in the process of literature review, and withholding of

data. The debate about whether this had a major impact is ongoing. What appears to be missing from the

literature and from opinion polls is a detailed investigation of exactly what people are sceptical about and what

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are their reasons for being sceptical. The latter question in particular does not appear to be used in opinion

surveys.

It is a misconception that those who consider themselves skeptical of the human contribution to climate change

do not believe that the climate is warming, and further, that a skeptical point of view is naïve, dangerous or

worse. There is no doubt that the climate is changing today, and that it has changed in the past. There is no doubt

even that it is warming as it has been since the mid- 1800s. The climate has undergone radical change in Earth’s

history even before humans arrived on the scene. Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) focuses

on four pillars (namely agriculture, forestry, renewable energy, and advanced technologies) that will support

Ethiopia’s developing green economy. Thus, this review paper tries to see climate change and its mitigation and

adaptation efforts in Ethiopia.

1.2 Objectives

General objective

The overall objective of the review is to assess climate change drivers, impacts and their mitigation and

adaptation strategies in Ethiopia.

Specific objectives

To describe climate change variability

To discuss drivers/causes of climate change

To explain the impacts of climate change on environment and livelihood

To identify mitigation and adaptation strategies

2. Climate Change Variability

Climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity. It alters the

composition of the global and/or regional atmosphere and natural climate variability observed over comparable

time periods. Climatic variabilities are the types of changes (temperature, rainfall, occurrence of extremes);

magnitude and rate of the climate change that causes the impacts on the area of public health, agriculture, food

security, forest hydrology and water resources, coastal area, biodiversity, human settlement, energy, industry,

and financial services. Changes in physical and socio-economic system have been identified in many regions

(UNFCCC, 2007). According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC), the global average surface temperature is likely to rise by 1.8 degrees to 4.0 degrees Celsius by

2100. The sea level may rise by 30 to 60 centimeters. Climate variability will increase almost everywhere.

Northern latitudes will experience more rainfall; many subtropical regions will see less (IPCC, 2001).

Detecting these changes and associating them with climate change poses huge problems since these systems

are usually subject to many stress factors other than climate change too. Vulnerability is the degree to which a

system (such as a social-ecological system) is likely to be wounded or experience harm or stress in the natural or

social environment. Vulnerability results from a combination of processes that shape the degrees of exposure to a

hazard, sensitivity to its stress and impacts, and resilience in the face of those effects. It is also considered a

characteristic of all people, ecosystems, and regions confronting environmental or socioeconomic stresses and,

although the level of vulnerability varies widely, it is generally higher among poorer people (Kasperson et al.,

2001).

Baseline climate that was developed using historical data of temperature and precipitation from 1971-2000 for

selected stations in Ethiopia showed the year-to-year variation of rainfall for the period between 1951 to 2005

over the country expressed in terms of normalized rainfall anomaly averaged for 42 stations (NMA, 2007). The

country during those periods (1951 to 2005) has experienced both dry and wet years over the last 54 years. These

changes in the physical environment are expected to have an adverse effect on agricultural production, including

staple crops such as wheat and maize. Trend analysis of annual rainfall in Ethiopia shows that rainfall remained

more or less constant when averaged over the whole country while a declining trend has been observed over the

Northern and Southwestern Ethiopia (IPCC, 2007).

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The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons. The seasonal and

annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systems and monsoon flows which are related to

the changes in the pressure systems (Tesfaye, 2003). The spatial variation of the rainfall is influenced by the

changes in the intensity, position, and direction of movement of these rain-producing systems over the country

(Temesgen, 2000).

Moreover, the spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia is significantly influenced by topography which also

has many unexpected changes in the Rift Valley. Being a closed basin, relatively small interventions in land and

water resources can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystems goods and services, and potentially

undermine the sustainable use of the area.

The National Metrological Agency (2001) revealed that in Ethiopia climate variability and change in the

country is mainly manifested through the variability and decreasing trend in rainfall and increasing trend in

temperature. Besides, rainfall and temperature patterns show large regional differences. For the IPCC mid-range

emission scenario, the mean annual temperature will increase in the range of 0.9 -1.1 °C by 2030, in the range of

1.7 - 2.1 °C by 2050 and in the range of 2.7-3.4 °C by 2080 over Ethiopia compared to the 1961-1990 normal. A

small increase in annual precipitation is expected over the country. Other sources of data have also substantiated

the variability of climate and its trends in a somewhat similar ways. Historical climate analysis for Ethiopia

indicates that mean annual temperature has increased by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006, an average rate of

0.28°C per decade. The increase in temperature in Ethiopia has been most rapid in June, August, and September

at a rate of 0.32°C per decade (McSweeney et al, 2008). Rainfall is historically highly variable and there is no

clear trend in the amount of rainfall over time. (McSweeney et al, 2008 and NAPA, 2007). Studies of localized

meteorological data alongside community perceptions indicate that seasonal change may already be occurring as

there are declining and increasing trends in certain months of the year (ACCRA, 2011).

Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 to 3.1°C in the 2060s, and 1.5 to 5.1°C in the 2090s.

Under a single emissions scenario, the projected changes from different models span a range of up to 2.1°C

(McSweeney et al, 2008).

The wide range between these different scenarios highlights the uncertainty in future projections for climate

change in Ethiopia. Clearly Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to current variability and there are also indications that

climate change will increase rainfall variability which will likely increase losses from rain-fed agriculture. The

ecosystems of the country as well as its community are highly exposed to climatic variability. Ethiopia is

vulnerable to climatic variability owing to its low adaptive capacity accountable to low level of socioeconomic

development, high population growth, inadequate infrastructure, lack of institutional capacity and high

dependence on climate sensitive natural resource-based activities (NMA, 2007).

3. Drivers/Causes of Climate Change

It occurs because of internal variability within the climate system and external factors. The external causes may

be natural or human induced human activity. Human activities cause climate change mainly fossil fuel burning

and removal of forests (Lovejoy and Hannah, 2005). These contribute to climate change by causing changes in

Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness (IPCC, 2007).

At global scale, the main cause of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is from carbon dioxide (70%), primarily

from burning of fossil fuel (petroleum) imported from industrialized countries, while the other sources for GHG

are methane and nitrous oxide caused by deforestation and agricultural activities, particularly the use of

pesticides (Yohannes and Mebratu, 2009 ). Climate change, driven by fossil fuel combustion and deforestation,

is a becoming threat to lives and livelihoods in every part of the world at this time (Ackerman, 2009).

The latest assessment report by IPCC (2013) states with 95% confidence that human influence is the main

cause of the observed warming in the atmosphere and oceans and other indicators of climate change and that

continued emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will cause further warming and changes in the components of

the climate system. The emissions of greenhouse gases are predominantly from high-income countries while the

negative effects of climate change are predominantly in low income countries. This means climate change is

generally expected to hit developing countries harder than industrialized countries, as the developing countries

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are less capable of mitigating or adapting to the changes due to their poverty and high dependence on the

environment for subsistence (UNDP, 2007).

3.1 Early Ethiopia’s Contribution to Climate Change

The emission of GHGs from various sources of energy usage has resulted in climate change by causing global

warming. Climate change is a key concern to Ethiopia in our time and need to be tackled in a state of emergency.

It has brought an escalating burden to already existing environmental concerns of the country including

deforestation (Ayana, 2011), agriculture sector (UNDP Ethiopia, 2011) land use and cover change (first report,

2001) and biomass consumption (First, 2001) and thus to anthropogenic climate change. This phenomenon is

occurring throughout the country and affecting every community although it may assume diverging degrees from

place to place as the country has varied landscape featured by contrasting altitudinal ranges.

According to FIRST (2001) report, the GHG emissions accounted to 900 kg CO2 equivalent per capita and

year in 1994. Compared to other countries, Ethiopia’s emissions are very low (e.g. the U.S. emissions amount to

23.7 tones CO2 equivalent per capita and year in 1994, but it is affected by the adverse impacts of climate

change brought by the carbon-intensive development paths of rich countries over the past century.

The direct contribution of agriculture in the country is about 80% of the total GHG emissions. It is ranked as

the most susceptible sector to climate change impacts and so do the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and

pastoralists. This reflects the fact that livestock farming goes together with high methane emissions. The

dominant position of livestock farming in Ethiopia’s economy also influences the relative contribution of GHG

to the total emissions (Fig. 1). These are dominated by methane emissions, which account for 80% of the

warming potential.

The land-use change & forestry (LUCF) sector has been a net sink in 1994 which amounted to about -15,063

Gg of CO2. This amount is a balance between changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks and forest and

grassland conversion subsectors. The country’s stock of natural forests, woodlands, shrubs, and plantations

sequestered about -27,573 Gg of CO2 in 1994 while emission of CO2 because of deforestation was estimated to

be 12,510 Gg in the same year (First, 2001).

.

Figure-1 Total greenhouse gases emission by sectors in 1994

Source: First report (2001)

In addition to agriculture, the energy sector (heating, cooking) and transport contributes to 15% of GHG

emissions. Biomass is the major source of household energy and estimates indicated that 95 percent of the total

energy consumption in the county was made up of biomass fuels consisting of fuel wood, animal dung and crop

residue (FIRST, 2001). Fuel wood use makes up 81.8 percent of these traditional sources, while animal dung and

crop residue make up 9.4 and 8.4 percent, respectively. Traditional fuels make up 99.9 percent of the rural

energy consumption and the rural population consumes 86.7 percent of the total net energy (EFAP, 1993). This

higher fuel wood consumption is due to increase in populations. GHG emissions of the country have to do much

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with the basic needs of the livelihoods of these populations. Therefore, the future GHG emissions will likely

increase with the projected increase in population.

3.2 Current Greenhouse Gas Emission Drivers

Ethiopia’s current contribution to the global increase in GHG emissions since the industrial revolution has been

practically negligible. Even after years of rapid economic expansion, today’s per capita emissions of less than 2 t

CO2e are modest compared with the more than 10 t per capita on average in the EU and more than 20 t per capita

in the US and Australia. Overall, Ethiopia’s total emissions of around 150 Mt CO2 e represent less than 0.3% of

global emissions.

Of the 150 Mt CO2 e in 2010, more than 85% of GHG emissions came from the agricultural and forestry

sectors. Power, transport, industry, and buildings follow them, which contributed 3% each (Table 1).

If current practices prevail, GHG emissions in Ethiopia will more than double from 150 Mt CO2 to 400 Mt

CO2 in 2030. On a per capita basis, emissions are set to increase by more than 50% to 3.0 t CO2 and will thus

exceed the global target to keep per capita emissions between 1 t and 2 t per capita in order to limit the negative

effects on climate change.

Table 1: Emission drivers by sectors and Percent of GHG

Sector Drivers GHG (%)

Agriculture :

Livestock

Soil

Deforestation

Methane from enteric fermentation

N2O from manure left on pastures

Crop production

Fertilizer use

Manure management

51

Forestry Forest degradation 37

Transport Passengers (inner-city, intra-city, and

international)

Freight (dry, construction and mining,

and international cargo)

3

Industry Chemicals, agro-processing

Pulp and paper, leather and textile

Buildings and cities

Cement, mining

3

Buildings

and cities

Solid waste

Liquid waste

Off-grid fossil fuel

3

Energy Conventional and renewable sources 3

Source: UNDP Ethiopia (2011) and Wondwossen Sintayehu (2013)

3.2.1 Major Drivers to Climate Change

Deforestation and Forest Degradation

Deforestation is the destruction of forested areas followed by a change in the land use (usually to agriculture or

pasture) that prevents the forest from regenerating. Forest degradation refers to negative changes in the forest

area that limit its production capacity. One good example that contributes to forest degradation in Ethiopia is the

poorly regulated collection of firewood from natural forests.

In many tropical countries, the majority of deforestation results from the actions of poor subsistence

cultivators. According to IPCC (2007), annual emissions from deforestation stand at 5.8 Gt CO2, and around 17

per cent of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions come from the forestry sector as a whole, including

emissions from biomass decay, drained peat and peat fires. It is the third largest source of anthropogenic GHG

emissions after energy supply and industrial activity. The deforestation of tropical forests alone currently

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contributes 1.5 Gt C y-1 to the global anthropogenic emission (vs. 8.4 Gt C y the use of fossil energy sources;

Raupach et al, 2007; Canadell et al, 2007). It is from annually emissions which are comparable to the total

annual CO2 emissions from the US or China (IPCC, 2007a). Similarly, deforestation may account for up to 25%

of global total anthropogenic emissions, and is said to be the largest single source category in the developing

world.

Though forest sector is a major source of CO2 emissions, reducing forest emissions can be achieved at

relatively low cost compared with abatement in other sectors (Stern, 2007). Furthermore, as the large majority of

deforestation occurs in developing countries, any international system that channels finance to reduce

deforestation has the potential to help reduce poverty as well as preserve other ecosystem services such as

biodiversity and regional rainfall patterns (FAO, 2005).

Deforestation and forest degradation are driven by proximate/direct causes and underlying/indirect causes

(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). However, deforestation and degradation occur through different

processes. The main direct drivers of deforestation are generally agreed to be logging and the expansion of

agriculture and infrastructure. Demand for wood fuels drives much of Africa’s forest degradation. Though the

role of firewood in forest degradation is somewhat contested, charcoal dominates cooking energy choices in

urban areas and uncontrolled fires, livestock grazing in forests are widely recognized to contribute to forest

degradation.

Proximate causes are human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of

carbon. These causes can be grouped into categories such as agriculture expansion (both commercial and

subsistence), infrastructure extension and wood extraction. Underlying causes are complex interactions of

fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes that are often distant from their area

of impact. These underpin the proximate causes and either operates at the local level or have an indirect impact

from the national or global level (Kissinger et al, 2012).

Forestry emissions are driven by deforestation for agricultural land (50% of all forestry-related emissions) and

forest degradation is due to fuel wood consumption (46%) as well as formal and informal logging (4%).

Deforestation leads to CO2 emissions, and is mostly caused by the conversion of forested areas to agricultural

land. Emissions are projected to grow from 25 Mt CO2 e in 2010 to almost 45 Mt in 2030 (EPA, 2011).

In addition to the deforestation caused by understandable needs, negligent as well as wanton destruction (such

as by fire), do contribute to deforestation. These types of deforestation have become increasingly frequent in the

last 20 years or so. This has been a period in which security of land tenure and access to natural resources were

undermined by unpopular policy measures such as frequent redistribution of land and restrictions in cutting and

utilizing trees, even in one's own backyard. Serious destruction of forests has occurred between the fall of the

previous government and the stabilization of the present one (EPA, 2011). As a result (CSA, 1999) the water

holding capacity of dams is decreasing rapidly due to increased siltation and consequently there is a pressure on

hydropower energy utilization; the heavy dependence on biomass resources such as animal dung for energy

supplies is leading to a situation where soils are being deprived of natural soil conditioners essential for

maintaining soil fertility and the fact that that the income of the majority of the population is too low to use

alternative energy sources has led to heavy dependence on biomass resources, which are, as a result, being

depleted from day to day.

Land use changes

Counting indirect emissions from land use changes through deforestation, and urbanization accounted one

percent of GHG release which also contribute to increase the atmospheric temperature. For instance,

deforestation would increase the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, because when forests (which act as major

carbon store) are cleared and the trees are either burnt or rot, the stored carbon is released as CO2 in the

atmosphere. Generally, land use changes remove the vegetation cover that absorbs the shortwave radiation,

thereby, leading to global warming. For developmental purposes, people cut down trees for economic purpose:

to expand cities, build houses, and create-large scale farming.

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Agriculture

Climate change affects agriculture and agriculture also affects climate change. Agriculture affects climate

change through the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) from different farming practices (Edwards-Jones et al,

2009). Agriculture and land-use change (deforestation) are major contributors to climate change. The IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report found that agriculture, which consists of cropland, pasture and livestock production,

and forestry contribute, respectively, 13 and 17 percent of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (FAO,

2008). This contribution does not include other emissions associated with agriculture such as production of

fertilizers (accounted under industry), food supply (transport and industry), packaging (waste), and cooling and

heating (energy supply).

While carbon dioxide emissions from agriculture are small, the sector accounts for about 60 percent of all N2O

and about 50 percent of CH4 emitted, mainly from soils and enteric fermentation, respectively. The GHG impact

through radiative forcing of N2O is 300 times that of CO methane and nitrous oxide emissions increased by 17

percent from 1990 to 2005 and are projected to increase by another 35 to 60 percent by 2030, driven by growing

nitrogen fertilizer use and increased livestock production (FAO, 2008). Increases in agricultural emissions are

expected as population and economic growth increase food demand.

In a country-basis, the US and China are expected to experience the greatest absolute growth in agricultural

emissions by 2030 (dotted boxes), with over 100 Mt COe per year more than they produced in 2010 (CEA,

2014). By 2030, Ethiopia becomes among top thirteen contributors of direct agricultural GHG emission in the

world (122 MtCo2 e) (Figure-2).

Figure-2: Countries greater emission from agriculture by 2030

Source: EPA, 2012

Currently, the agricultural sector is also the highest source of emissions in Ethiopia, contributing to 51% of the

total emissions (UNDP Ethiopia, 2011) (Table 1). In agriculture, GHG emissions are attributable to first,

livestock and second, crops. Ethiopia currently has a cattle population of more than 50 million and nearly 100

million other livestock. Livestock generates greenhouse gases mainly in the form of methane emissions arising

from digestion processes (mostly attributable to ruminant animals like cattle) and nitrous oxide emissions arising

from excretions. Livestock emissions are estimated to amount to 65 MtCO2e-35% of Ethiopia’s total emissions

today. The cultivation of crops contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases mainly due to the associated

use of fertilizer (~10 MtCO2e), which leads to nitrous oxide emissions, as well as N2O emission from crop

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residues reintroduced into the ground (3 MtCO2e) (UNDP Ethiopia, 2011). More than 85% of GHG emissions in

Ethiopia come from forestry and agriculture.

3.2.2 Minor Drivers to Climate Change

Minor sources of emissions today are transport, power, industry, and buildings, as described below.

Transport: In transport, approximately 75% of the emissions come from road transport, particularly freight and

construction vehicles, and to a lesser extent private passenger vehicles. Air transport also contributes a

significant share (23% of transport related emissions). Emissions from inland water transport are minimal.

Increase in passenger-km traveled projected based on elasticity to real GDP. Increase in ton-km of cargo

transported based on elasticity to real GDP.

Ethiopia is endowed with vast energy resources particularly hydropower. Energy supply in the country is

composed of three main sub-sectors, namely; biomass, petroleum and electricity. Currently the energy need of

the country is satisfied by wood fuel (77%), dung (7.7%), crop residue (8.7%), Bagasse (0.06%), charcoal

(1.15%), electricity (1%), liquid petroleum gas (LPG) (0.05%), and oil products (4.8%). Most of the energy is

utilized for household purposes. To date the country’s total installed capacity of electricity is about 450 MW

(UNDP Ethiopia, 2011).

Electric power: The electric power sector only accounts for very low emissions as it is largely based on

renewable energy, with hydro power accounting for more than 90% of total power generation capacity,

supplemented by the use of on and off-grid diesel generators administered by the Ethiopian Electric Power

Corporation (EEPCo). Current emissions in the energy sector amount to below 5 Mt CO2 e or a share of 3% of

the country’s total emissions. (The global average for electric power generation’s share of a country’s GHG

emissions is more than 25%). Switch of remaining fossil fuel capacity to 100% clean/renewable generation for

on-grid (UNDP Ethiopia, 2011).

Industry: Given the comparably small share of organized industrial economic activity overall, industry

accounts for only 3% of GHG emissions. At nearly 2 Mt CO2 to the 4 Mt CO e emissions from industry, cement

is the single largest industrial source of emissions, followed by mining (32%), and the textile and leather (17%)

industry. Emissions from steel, other types of engineering, the chemicals industry (incl. fertilizer), pulp and

paper industry and food processing together account for only around 2% of industrial GHG emissions.

Buildings: it contributes around 5 Mt CO2 e or 3% to today’s emissions. Main drivers are emissions related to

solid and liquid waste (3 Mt of CO 2 e) and the use of private off-grid power generators in cities (2 Mt of CO2

e).

4. Climate Change Impacts

Climate change causes wide-ranging effects on the environment, and on socio-economic and related sectors,

including water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity.

Changes in rainfall pattern are also likely to lead to severe water shortages and/or flooding. Rising temperatures

also will cause shifts in crop growing seasons which affects food security and changes in the distribution of

disease vectors putting more people at risk from diseases such as malaria. Temperature increases will potentially

severely increase rates of extinction for many habitats and species (UNFCCC, 2007).

Climate change causes the frequency and severity of weather events. Some indirect effect of climate change

includes, changes in soil moisture, land and water condition, change in frequency of fire and pest infect and the

distribution of diseases. The potential for a system to sustain adverse impact on agriculture is determined by its

capacity to adapt to the changes. Higher temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased rainfall variability reduce

crop productivity that would be affected food security in low income and agriculture-based economies. Thus, the

impact of climate change is detrimental to countries that depend on agriculture as the main livelihood (Edwards-

Jones et al. 2009).

Climate change has the potential to undermine sustainable development, increase poverty, and delay or prevent

the realization of the Millennium Development Goals (IPCC, 2007). Climate change can influence humans

directly, through impacts on health and the risk of extreme events on lives, livelihoods and human settlements,

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and indirectly, through impacts on food security and the viability of natural resource-based economic activity.

The biophysical effects of climate change on agriculture induce changes in production and prices, which play out

through the economic system as farmers and other market participants adjust autonomously, altering crop mix,

input use, production, food demand, food consumption, and trade (ORS, 2004).

Climate change is generally expected to hit developing countries harder than industrialized countries, as the

former are less capable of mitigating or adapting to the changes due to their poverty and high dependence on the

environment for subsistence (UNDP, 2007).

Ethiopia’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is negligible, but it is affected by the adverse

impacts of climate change brought by the carbon-intensive development paths of rich countries over the past

century. According to the country’s First National Communications to the UNFCCC, temperature across the

country could rise by between 0.5 and 3.6°C by 2070. The annual average temperature during 2070-2090 is

projected to be 26.92 °C, up 3.84 °C on the 1960-90 average whilst average daily rainfall will reduce by 3.5% by

the end of the century (Hassan, 2006).

Ethiopia is hit harder than most countries by drought and its devastating consequences. Recurrent droughts

have resulted in loss of life and property as well as the migration of people. Drought frequency is predicted to

increase placing stress on already vulnerable production systems. The mainstay of the Ethiopian economy is

rain-fed agriculture, which is heavily sensitive to climate variability and change (CSA, 2007).

Drought is also severely affecting hydropower generation, Ethiopia’s main source of electricity. Flooding in

turn causes significant damage to settlements and infrastructure, livestock and animal health, and the

waterlogging of productive land undermines agriculture by delaying planting, reducing yields, and

compromising the quality of crops, especially if the rains occur around harvest time (World Bank, 2011).

In addition both droughts and flooding increase the stress on social institutions, and increase the vulnerability

of households, particularly those living close to the poverty line, through loss of assets, impaired health, potential

conflicts and animal disease with potential risk for humans. Climate change affects human and livestock health

directly through morbidity and mortality impacts of temperature extremes, vectors of infectious diseases,

proliferation of non-vector borne infectious diseases, air quality, floods and storms, and indirectly through

impacts on food supply and water resources. Climate change creates a favorable environment for vector-borne

diseases such as malaria and trypanosomiasis that are widespread in the country. Malaria and

animal trypanosomiasis will expand their altitudinal range and it is anticipated that other new human animal and

plant diseases will emerge and increase (World Bank, 2003).

Many species that is already vulnerable. Species with limited climatic ranges and/or with limited geographical

opportunities (e.g. species restricted to Afro alpine ecosystem like Ethiopian Wolf, Walia Ibex and Giant

Lobelia), species with restricted habitat requirements and/or small populations are typically the most vulnerable.

Ethiopia faces the following challenges to managing climate change risks and opportunities (UNDP, 2007).

5. Mitigation to Climate Change

5.1 Mitigation strategies

The Ethiopian Government has already put in place a number of policies, strategies and programs aimed at

enhancing the adaptive capacity and reducing the vulnerability of the country to climate variability and change.

Such programs include the Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), the

Environmental Policy, and the Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy. The Government have

established a Strategic Investment Framework for sustainable land management (SLM) but the cost and capacity

implications of climate change have yet to be built into this. Ethiopia is signatory to a host of environmental

agreements that require countries to develop specific implementation mechanisms and fulfill obligations

involving reporting, training, public education, and other activities (UNFCCC, 2007). The EPA is the national

focal point for the UNCCD. The governance of the Nile Basin water resources are critical for climate change

vulnerability in the Nile Basin countries. Ethiopia is one of the nine Nile Basin countries and secretariat of the

Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (Deressa et al, 2008).

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National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA) identified a participatory process and integrated climate

change adaptation activities with national development policies to ensure effective implementation of adaptation

activities. The NAPA process in Ethiopia identified arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas of the country as

being most vulnerable to drought; agriculture was identified as the most vulnerable sector; and in terms of

livelihoods, small-scale rain-fed subsistence farmers and pastoralists are identified as the most at risk (NAPA,

2007).

Carbon trading

Carbon trading is a market mechanism to mitigate climate change. In carbon trading one party pays for another

party in return for greenhouse gas emission reduction or for the right to emit

(Capoor and Ambrosi, 2008). The Kyoto mechanisms allow the countries with Kyoto commitments to meet

their target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way and motivate developing countries to

join global emission reduction (UNFCCC, 2009). Thus carbon trading offers an opportunity to increase climate

equity. Treaties include potential to finance mitigation and adaptation to climate change and enhance sustainable

development.

According to African development form (2010), there are significant new opportunities in the Green Economy

for absorbing carbon from the air, and simultaneously generating green products. Changing agricultural practices

and improving land use is considered to be one of the cost effective ways of reducing atmospheric greenhouse

gases. The restoration of degraded cropland soils can also increase soil carbon-storage and crop yields, while

contributing to the conservation of agricultural biodiversity, including soil biodiversity. There is potential for

global agreements to permit new ‘crops and products’ by tapping into new sources of funding through carbon

trading and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Market-based climate change mitigation instruments involve carbon trading between developed and

developing countries. The most common market-based climate financing includes accessing climate finance for

clean development mechanism and emission reduction. The mechanisms create a new niche market for

developed countries that need to trade carbon to meet their climate change mitigation regulation—such as GHG

emission reduction targets through purchase of REDD credits. It is recognized that the market-based climate

financing mechanisms would be more efficient, involve lower transaction costs, and are not prone to policy and

governance failures (Kant, 2010).

Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) vision and strategy emanated from the Constitution of

Ethiopia and the Environmental Policy of Ethiopia approved in 1994 and 1997 respectively. The CRGE strategy

focuses on four pillars that will support Ethiopia’s developing green economy respectively (Gemechu, 2005):

adoption of agricultural and land use efficiency measures; increased GHG sequestration in forestry, i.e.,

protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and ecosystem services including carbon stocks;

deployment of renewable and clean power generation and use of appropriate advanced technologies in industry,

transport, and buildings.

In general four initiatives for fast-track implementation have been selected under the CRGE: (i) exploiting

Ethiopia’s vast hydropower potential; (ii) large-scale promotion of advanced rural cooking technologies; (iii)

efficiency improvements to the livestock value chain; and (iv) Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and

Forest Degradation (REDD) The government has also created institutional arrangements for CRGE strategy

implementation. A CRGE facility has been put in place within the Ministry of Finance and Economic

Development. The facility is responsible for resources mobilization and disbursement. The EPA shall develop a

system for monitoring, reporting and verification. The UNDP, as interim trustee, is responsible to manage the

CRGE fund and/ resources. On the other hand, each sector shall have an environmental unit, and are tasked with

preparing their respective strategy for resilience (EPA, 2012)

Determined enough to combat climate change, Ethiopia has duly reacted by ratifying relevant international

conventions and is taking the necessary steps to implement the two categories of responses to climate change,

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mitigation and adaptation. With this respect, Ethiopia has so far (MoFED, 2008) ratified agreements such as the

UNFCCC and its related appliance, the Kyoto Protocol. Existing national policies and sectoral programs targeted

towards environmental rehabilitation possibly addressed the issues of climate change either directly or indirectly.

Among others, the following are notable (MoFED, 2007); conservation Strategy, Environmental policy,

Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy, Integrated Watershed Management, Water Resources

Management Policy, National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness and National Policy on

Biodiversity Conservation and Research.

Atmospheric pollution and climate change policies are (NMA, 2001):

To promote a climate monitoring program as the country is highly sensitive to climatic variability;

To recognize that even at an insignificant level of contribution to atmospheric greenhouse gases, a firm

and visible commitment to the principle of containing climate change is essential and to take the appropriate

control measures for a moral position from which to deal with the rest of the world in a struggle to bring about

its containment by those countries which produce large quantities of greenhouse gases;

To recognize that Ethiopia's environmental and long-term economic interests and its energy prospect

coincide with the need to minimize atmospheric inputs of greenhouse gases as it has a large potential for

harnessing hydro-, geothermal and solar energy, none of which produce pollutant gases in significant amounts

and to develop its energy sector accordingly;

To actively participate in protecting the ozone layer since, as the highlands of Ethiopia already have a

thin protective atmosphere and are liable to suffer agricultural losses and adverse health effects from exposure to

ultraviolet rays;

To recognize that the continued use of biomass for energy production makes no net contribution to

atmospheric pollution as long as at least equal amounts of biomass are produced annually to compensate this and

to maximize the standing biomass in the country through a combination of reforestation, agroforestry, the

rehabilitation of degraded areas, a general revegetation of the land and the control of free range grazing in the

highlands and to seek financial support for this from industrialized countries for offsetting their carbon dioxide

emission;

The impacts of climate change and atmospheric pollution include weather variability, loss of pasture land,

droughts, flood and thus food insecurity and other environmental related health problems. Proposed intervention

measures include (MoFED, 2007): developing a federal strategy, standards, and law to improve urban air

quality; developing a national strategy to enhance coping mechanisms regarding the adverse impacts of climate

change; and launching environmentally sound investment and other programs that foster cleaner development

mechanisms, including emissions trading.

PASDEP has outlined six strategic goals towards the realization of the Environmentally Sound Development

Vision of the country (Deressa et al., 2008): ensuring community-led environmental protection and the

sustainable use of environmental resources for gender equity and improved livelihood; rehabilitating affected

ecosystems; enhancing capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and services, particularly biomass for food, feed

and household energy; removing the adverse impacts of municipal waste preventing environmental pollution;

and ensuring proactively the integration of environmental and ethical dictates especially mainstreaming gender

equity in development.

Participatory watershed planning is the key to understand what is needed to be done at various levels to sustain,

improve and diversify production while developing and managing the natural resource base, promote income

generation opportunities, increase access to basic services (roads, markets, schools, water, and the like.) and

make livelihood systems resilient to shocks (MoARD, 2005). For example, the participatory safety net program

(PSNP) supports 7.7 million beneficiates by providing cash or food transfers, enabling them to reduce asset

depletion and increase their resilience capacity to climate change. In addition to this, a large number of soil

conservation structures, water harvesting structures and social infrastructures were built. As a result, regenerated

the environment, increasing access to water supply for beneficiaries, access to farmers training centers, and

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livelihoods were improved through improved productivity of land and assets. The encouraging results of this

programme need to continue as a tool to counteract climate change as well (MoA, 2010).

Ethiopia has prepared biodiversity conservation to fulfill its global and national commitments to conserve its

rich biodiversity by arresting erosion of biological diversity and ensuring the benefits thereof to present and

future generations. To this effect, necessary measures have been implemented and shall continue so to (IBC,

2005): conserve ecosystem level biodiversity through protected area networks and through sustainable use and

management systems, ensure equitable benefit sharing, and preserve country’s biodiversity in terms of its

domestication of agricultural crops and the high levels of genetic diversity of both crops and livestock. This

intern can strengthen climate change mitigation in the environment.

5.2 Alternative Energy Sources and Utilization

Ethiopia is one of those countries which have a good deal of renewable energy potential in the world.

However, the total energy consumption of the country in 2000 was estimated to be 754 TJ of which biomass

contributed 95.7%, while petroleum and electricity takes 3.4% and 0.79%, respectively. The sectoral

composition of energy was dominated by the household sector, accounting 90% of the total (Getnet et al, 2003).

The other sectors industries, services, transport, and agriculture as a whole account only for the remaining 10%

(NMSA, 2001).

Although the country is known to have the potential to produce substantial amounts of energy

from its various energy sources, as things stand now, most of the energy consumed in the country originates

from wood and biomass. Apart from these environmental problems, there are factors that directly affect the

energy resources utilization in the country. These are (CSA, 2000): inefficient in energy utilization which results

in a high degree of energy resources wastage in the country; lack of capacity to effectively develop the country's

energy resources such as hydropower, solar and other renewable energy sources; the fact that climate change is

causing erratic rainfall, both in amount and distribution and consequent fluctuations in the hydropower energy

supply in the country.

Efforts made to tackle the problems associated with energy resources include (CACC, 2002): a national energy

policy has been issued; even though insignificant compared to the vast potential, some attempts to utilize

renewable energy resources have been made; Some steps to promote charcoal and other bio-mass energy

efficient cooking stoves have been taken; an investment code that encourages the involvement of the private

sector in energy generation has been promulgated; survey, design and construction works are being conducted to

develop the country's enormous hydropower potential; there are ongoing initiatives in the agricultural sector

designed to encourage the participation of rural communities in firewood; in order to enhance energy

development for rural areas, a Rural Energy Development Promotion Centre has been established as an

independent entity at the level of the Federal Government and some Regional States; and a Rural Electrification

Fund has been established.

Though the efforts made to tackle the problems related to energy resources utilization so far are commendable,

there is need to do much more in view the magnitude of the pressures exerted on the environment generally and

forest and other biomass resources particularly.

6. Adaptations to Climate Change

According to the IPCC third Assessment Report, adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse impacts of

climate change and to enhance beneficial impacts, but will incur costs and will not prevent all damages.

Furthermore, it is argued that human and natural systems will, to some extent, adapt autonomously and that

planned adaptation can supplement autonomous adaptation. However, options and incentives are greater for

adaptation of human systems than for adaptation to protect natural systems (IPCC, 2001).

Adapting to climate change will entail adjustments and changes at every level from community to national and

international. Communities must build their resilience, including adopting appropriate technologies while

making the most of traditional knowledge, and diversifying their livelihoods to cope with current and future

climate stress. Local coping strategies and traditional knowledge need to be used in integrated with government

and local interventions. To enable effective adaptation measures, governments as well as non-government

79



organizations, must consider integrating climate change in their planning and budgeting in all levels of decision-

making (Mendelsohn, 2000).

Decisions on the type of adaptation are often made by individuals, groups within society, and organizations

and governments on behalf of society. Some adaptation measures may be taken at individual level. Others like

rainwater harvesting and investments, building dams, releasing new cultivars that are more drought resistance

require collective actions. These time societies have inherent capacities to adapt to climate change and have

developed different adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat climate change. They have developed

knowledge, skills, technology, institutional arrangements and strategies that are important foundations for

adapting to long-term climate change. Based on the type of economic activities and social networks societies can

access local coping strategies against shocks. These highly differ among households and communities.

Communities have always adapted to climate variations by making preparations based on their resources and

knowledge accumulated through experience of past weather pattern. The adaptive measures that households use

when faced with climate change could also differ in terms of their ease of implementation, equity effects, lag

between implementation and effect, their cost of implications, compatibility with other programs, and agencies

implementing measures (Admassie, 2008).

Climate adaptation measures will need to address systemic weaknesses and vulnerabilities that have

historically impoverished those communities. Climate change will challenge the implementation of current and

future development plans: adjustments and changes will be required at every level: community, national and

international. A better understanding of the impacts, costs, changes and communities perceptions of climate

change, ongoing adaptation measures, and the decision-making process is important to inform policy makers and

sector institutions aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies for the country in the next PASDEP

currently under preparation. Ethiopia will need to both mitigate the impacts of climate change, where possible,

and adapt to the situation where it cannot (Yesuf et al, 2008).

As impact will differ regionally, based on the bio-physical and socioeconomic situations within Ethiopia, the

management of impacts will need to be defined for each region based on the analysis of current information and

practices, the scope for variability within these systems and the possibility of alternative farming and livelihoods.

Given the challenges outlined above, delivering an integrated response will require enhanced capacity for

coordinating and leading ‘joined-up’ actions. New technologies, as well as current technologies used in new

ways can support this response, but only if the appropriate enabling institutional and policy environment is in

place to encourage joint working and embrace adaptive learning to take account of ongoing uncertainties or new

opportunities (Tadege, 2007).

Indigenous people all over the world have used different strategies to respond and adapt to climate change,

these include (FAO, 2007): diversified resource base (to minimize the risk due to harvest failure, they grow

many different crops and varieties, and they also hunt, fish, and gather wild food plants); change in crop varieties

and species; change in the timing of activities (crop harvests, wild plant gathering, hunting and fishing); change

of techniques; change of location; changes in resources and/or life style(resorting to wild foods in the case of

emergency situations such as droughts and floods); exchange (obtaining food and other necessities from external

sources through exchange, reciprocity, barter, or markets in times of crises); and resource management

(enhancing scarce and climate-sensitive resources management)

In Ethiopia cases, traditional and contemporary coping mechanisms to climate variability and extreme include

(NAPA, 2007): changes in cropping and planting practices, reduction of consumption levels, collection of wild

foods, use of inter-household transfers and loans, increased petty commodity production, temporary and

permanent migration in search of employment, grain storage, sale of assets such as livestock and agricultural

tools, mortgaging of land, credit from merchants and money lenders, use of early warning system and food

appeal/aid, etc.

As future climatic conditions unfold and farmers learn how to implement adaptive strategies (which in turn

will depend on the form of tenure, incomes, etc.), farmers could make long term adjustments such as changing

crop varieties that are grown as well as where they are grown (i.e. location). Potential options include switching

80



to more robust varieties that are better suited to the new environment. In Zimbabwe farmers have switched

successfully to the use of more drought tolerant crop in areas where the frequent recurrence of droughts has

made agriculture production difficult using the traditional crop varieties. In the extreme case, where agriculture

is no longer viable, farmers have converted land use from crop production to game ranching (Abate, 2009).

UNDP Ethiopia supports adaptation and building resilience through the following projects and programs

(UNDP Ethiopia, 2011):

Promoting Autonomous Adaptation at the Community Level in Ethiopia; (LDCF)

Sustainable Development of Protected Area System (SDPA)

Mainstreaming Agro-Biodiversity into the Farming System of Ethiopia

Afar integrated dry lands management

MDGF Environment-enabling pastoralist communities to adapt to climate change and restore rangelands

environment.

7. Conclusion and Recommendations

Ethiopia has contributed very low to the current climate change. However, it has great impact in the country

itself. Climate that was developed using historical data of temperature and precipitation from 1951 to 2005 for

selected stations in Ethiopia showed the year-to-year variation of rainfall for the period. The country during

those periods (1951 to 2005) has experienced both dry and wet years over the last 54 years. These changes in the

physical environment are expected to have an adverse effect on agricultural production, environment, and the

overall livelihood. Particularly Central rift valley (CRV) is environmentally very vulnerable areas to climate

change. Causes/drivers of climate change in the country are divided in to two as major and minor. Deforestation

and forest degradation, land use change, and agriculture are considered as major drivers while transport, power,

industry, and buildings are minor ones. Climate change causes wide-ranging effects on the environment, and on

socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture and food security, human health,

terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity.

The Ethiopian Government has already put in place a number of policies, strategies and programs aimed at

enhancing the adaptive capacity and reducing the vulnerability of the country to climate variability and change.

Such programs include the Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty, the

Environmental Policy, and the Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy, Ethiopia’s Climate-

Resilient Green Economy and Strategic Investment Framework for sustainable land management. The positive

results of integrated watershed management at community level have drawn the attention of multi-donors and the

government to formulate more sustainable land management strategies and it is becoming the best mitigating

measures of climate change. Early warning system, information management, community-based disaster

preparedness, and humanitarian actions are going to be critically essential to substantiate enabling environment

for climate change adaptation and these are becoming under implementation particularly in drought prone and

vulnerable areas of the country.

As future climatic conditions unfold and farmers learn how to implement adaptive strategies (which in turn

will depend on the form of tenure, incomes, etc.), farmers could make long term adjustments such as changing

crop varieties that are grown as well as where they are grown (i.e. location). Potential options include switching

to more robust varieties that are better suited to the new environment. Traditional and contemporary coping

mechanisms to climate variability and extreme should be strengthened.

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