Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
Mobility & Transportation System for the Future
Which Mobility for the future ? For every one, everywhere
In a world of less raw material and more intelligence …
gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
Agence De l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’EnergieService Transports et Mobilité, en charge des Energies et de la Prospective
Mobility ?
Business Models
Multi modality
Real time
PollutionsIndustry
GHG
Commuter
(Open) Data
SmartPhone
Physical meeting
VEHICLE
ENERGY Infrastructure
Future of Work
Transports du Futur
Need innovative Tools :
• To identifiy « weak » signal amount information flow,• To identify « future key topic »: functional economy,
ITS, open data, alternative currency …• To identify « key expert » in key topic • To propose alternative point of view, new ideas, new
risks & opportunities,• To propose new questions, new discussions,• To share articles, key experts, networks, ideas,
• And to share Transports du Futur Innovative Tools …• Examples …
Transports du Futur
BLOGIdea, Message,
Knowledge prod°Open database
TWITTERMessage,Network
Knowledge prod°Open database
LINKEDINMessage,Network
Knowledge prod°+ Discussion Place
Open database
NETVIBESInfo Flux
PEARLTREEWeb Site
Open database
YOUTUBE ChanelVideo
Open database
SLIDESHAREDocuments
Open database
KLOUTE-Reputation
Expert relation
Peer IndexE-Reputation
Expert relation
ALL TOOLS AVAILABLE !
1- Automotive industry : crisis or Major change ?understand transports sector and mobilityunderstand major change to operate
2- Exercise Play a game with 5 teams : Government, Industry, NGO, citizen and cityWhat proposals to lead the change ?
3- Your proposition for Mobility 2.0 ?
gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
2015
Vincent Besson : Change ahead will be as violent as the transition from horse to the automobile »
Michel Serres : Digital evolution, 3rd of our species after writing and printing
Stéphane Vial : « After the wood , wind, water, coal and steel , and thermal and electrical machines , digital is the new matrix ».
• The digital becomes the dominant technique. New Industrial empires are built around
• The mutation of the object in the service is a chance
• A new ecosystem is created , users are at the center , the data is the fuel ( renewable)
• Innovations are carried by start-ups
Money : more GDP => more km, more speed, alone …
moins de TC :
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10 20 30 40 50
Per Capita GDP @ PPP
Ve
hic
les
Pe
r 1
00
0 P
eo
ple
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10 20 30 40 50
Per Capita GDP @ PPP
Ve
hic
les
Pe
r 1
00
0 P
eo
ple
Vehicle Density vs. Income(for 2002 and 2007)
Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
W. Europe & Japan
Empreinte écologique, Écart en % / moy (UK)
Fundamentals of Mobility
http://air-climate.eionet.europa.eu/docs/ETCACC_TP_2009_10_prelim_AQQanalysis_2008.pdf
First SYMPTOMS : Air POLLUTION
Cadastre population
POPULATION EXPOSITION
POLLUTIONIMPACT Function
DESEASE & DEAD Numbers
0
EXTERNAL COSTS
Air Pollution MapPopulation repartition
COSTS
[ ]
Example : Impact of technology on NO2 emissions and health A series of technical and scientific skills very different Some experts in this sequence: for example ANSES
g / s of pollutant (eg NO2): vehicle exhaust depending on :- technology (manufacturer, Euro)- use of the vehicle (speed, accel., T °)- maintenance, aging
gNO2/m3: concentration in the atmosphere depending on :- the atmospheric chemistry and pollutants already there!- the weather (temperature, wind)- the vehicle fleet (g / s) and use (nb veh, km)- other NO2
Health impact, based on dose / response:variable depending on the mixturesdifficult to know the impact of a single component
Link vehicle exhaust, concentration, air pollution, health response … => Strong uncertainties
Air Quality & Pollutants Emissions
Cadastre population
POPULATION EXPOSITION
POLLUTIONIMPACT Function
DESEASE & DEAD Numbers
0
EXTERNAL COSTS
Air Pollution MapPopulation repartition
COSTS
[ ]
Need for a method and tools to choose
Need tools to select, adapt / user / criteria:
•Tool to create and / or access to new strategic data,
•Multi criteria aggregation tool: pollutant, CO2, €, ...
•Tool for comparison and selection
Some examples ...
comparaison des filières PL 19TMesures et Estimations(*)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
NOx (g/km)
Par
ticu
les
(g/k
m)
60km/h
903
500
763
900(*)
710(*)20km/h
20km/h
20km/h
60km/h 60
km/h
60km/h
60km/h
20km/h
20km/h
Diester
Emulsion
Diesel
GNV
sans FAP
avec FAP
avec FAP/DeNOx1ère monte
(neuf)
20km/h
9401345730(*)
EFFET du FAP
EFFET del'usage
630
615*
875*
60km/h EFFET
DeNOx
1435
20km/h
Heavy Duty Vehicle (19 tons) : Pollutants and GHGPa
rtic
les
(g/k
m)
Speed Effect
DPF Effect
DeNOx Effect
How to aggregate pollutants, GHG,energy, costs, noise … ?
gNOx/km => €NOx /kmgCO2/km => €CO2 /kmdB/km => €dB /km…Economy => € /km
3
Σ Vehicle lifetime
€ CO, HC, NOx, PM, GHG, dB, Economy
Cadastre population
POPULATION EXPOSITION
POLLUTIONIMPACT Function
DESEASE & DEAD Numbers
0
EXTERNAL COSTS
Air Pollution MapPopulation repartition
COSTS
[ ]
DieselNGVLPG
Costs for pollutants in € / ton
CO HC NM NOx Particles CO2, CH4
0 2000 7700 126 900 40
Pollutants and GHG : aggregation by Euros
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
Diesel
Dieste
r 30
émuls
ion FAP
FAP+DeNO
XGNV
Diesel
Dieste
r 30
émuls
ion FAP
FAP+DeNO
XGNV
coût GES carburantcoût GES véhiculecoût Part.coût Nox
Vitesse moyenne 20 km/h
Vitesse moyenne 60 km/h
Coût externe en euro/km
Heavy Duty Vehicle (19 tons) : Pollutants + GHG
External costs in euro/km
Average speed 60 km/h
Average speed 20 km/h Fuel GHG costVehicle GHG costParticle costNOx cost
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
CO2 Véhicule (fossile et renouvelable) g/km => BONUS / MALUS
Coût puits à la roue (euros)CO2 fossile et polluantssur 200 000 km
GNV
Essence
Diesel FAP
Diesel sans FAP
VUL
E85
C3 HDi sans FAPEffet NOx !!Cycle NEDC :118 gCO2 / 1707 €
Cycle réel :129 gCO2 / 2813 €
Trail 125
Scooter 125- 400 250- 600
Sport 900
2 roues cycle réel200 000 km(rajouter prod.)
External costs for Car and 2 wheels : Pollutants + GHG
GHG vehicle (fossil + biofuell) g/km
GHG + Pollutants costsvehicle (fossil + biofuell) Over 200.000 km in €/km
C3 HDi w/o DPFNOx effectNEDC cycle : 118 gCO2 / 1707 €Real cycle : 129 gCO2 / 2813 €
2 wheels real cycle200 000 km
Suivi conso permanent en fonction de l’exploitation
Suivi permanent des émissions de tous les polluants gazeux et particules en fonction de l’exploitation
What IF real pollution was known in real time ?Who will produce this Information ?
Constraint on pollutants => Emissions norms Euro (IV to VI)
Links pollutants / fuel consumption and GHG
Le transport du futur devra concilier les 3 aspects :
Diversification (alternative to fossile)+
GHG emissions under constraints (Factor 4)+
Pollutants Emissions under constraint (Euro X)
=> Optimisation of « components » like vehicle is not sufficient=> Need to optimise also the SYSTEM
Constraints on energy & GHG => diversification and efficiency
Addition of constraints
Baku, Azerbaijan
The finding is the result elements studied today separately, in silos.
While locks & solutions are mainly in the interstices.
We are looking for solutions in each "silo" where we used to look ...
« You looking for your key during the night under lamp, simply because you can see … »
Transports & Mobility, Today
More info, clic here
NEW VehAll Veh
1 to 3 MillionsDrivers out of Norm :-insurance, -Permit-Technical control
years
More info, clic here
Transports & Mobility, Today
urban Peri-urban, rural
Mtoe
Mtoe40 Mtoeroad50
Mto
e
tGHG/y
essential parameters :Type of mobility, daily – occasional, constraint - leisure, ...Age, income,Place of residence, Alternative offers availableIdentification and understanding of practices, of daily activities
The solutions must adapt to the multiplicity of situations (explosions configurations)be "as good" as the individual car possessed:- economy,- flexibility,- environment- quality service...
Which mobility?
Socio profil Mobility Behavior Automotive Behavior
Which mobility?
PARIS
Mobility Choice from Monday to Friday
In PARIS, multimodality – on average in France, still the car
Which mobility?
Why do you use less your personnal car ?
Reduce my demand
It’s not green
Lose my time
stress
It’s not usefull
It’s expensive
First reason to reduce car utilisation is economic (selfish) then green (altruistic)
Which mobility?
First reduction concern « non constraint » travel
Utilisation ratio of personal car
Home - Job Professional Trip
Shopping Leisures
Again, First reason to use bicycle is economic & healthy (selfish) then green (altruistic)
Why do you use more a bicycle ?
Increase demand
It’s green
It’s economic
It’s healthy
It’s rapid
No stress
Which mobility?
Under constraints : €, time/congestion, health, confort, connectivity, … , GHG and pollution
1. Reduction of a unique solution owned (car)
2. Behavior modifications : Selfish AND Altruistic
3. Now We start to THINK before taking a car :1. other mode ?2. Share with other, share trip3. Adapt my driving style
But CONSTRAINTS WILL INCREASE … MODIFICATIONS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT
IMPROVE OUR COMMON KNOWLEDGE :
HOW PEOPLE ARE MOVING ?
Which mobility - Summary
Which route toward Factor 4 ?
New Technology
New Vehicle on the road :• €,• too slow !• If less FC then more km !
TODAY NO CLEAR and SHARED VISIONS TO REACH F4, Air Quality, reduce congestions
GHG, Air Quality AQ
4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
The meeting, in a given area, of a user and …
an energy: fossil, biomass, muscle, available through a distribution network,
a vehicle (which converts the energy in motion): truck, car, bicycle, walking, available in own account or for others, property or shares,
an infrastructure (which allow the movement and possibly easier): road, rail, urban planning, but also interfaces to change 'vehicle' : station, parking, delivery area, logistics platform,
and Information (which allowed yesterday to facilitate the movement, and who will, tomorrow, optimize it): theoretical hourly, hourly real-time traffic, weather, …
A Mobility System allows
In order to realise an activity.
REMEMBER
Industry Time scale for innovation
Linked with Actors
Vehicle : Automotive, HDV, 2 wheels, bicycle
5-10 years Infrastructures : shared, constraints
private
Energy : Oil, energy, some cities (biogas), some farmers (biofuels)
10-20 years Infrastructures : network distribution
private
Infrastructure : road, parking, rail operator, 20-50 years Vehicles, energy, information
Publics
Informations : Telecoms, citizen (!) 0.5-2 years Vehicle, energy, infra
Publics (source) and private
4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
What performance criteria for a solutionMobility and Transport
• Time door to door• Cost: investment, km• Quality: robustness to uncertainties, always-on connectivity or zero noise• Security: perceived real• Environmental performance: known or unknown, knowledge generally leads to
optimization. The fact that they are known is already a step forward:• pollutants, GHG• Energy diversification,• Waste direct and indirect• noise• urban land use• link health / mobility (soft modes, pollution cabin)
• Environment,• Security,• Congestion,• Energy (unique)
(Europ 14 M)
Mobility 1.0
Mobility System Optimisation
is not anymore an option
4 more free time in 100 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
aujourd'hui début siècle
Time Transport Budget : Stable ~ 1h for over 20 yearsNeed more speed for more distance
Milliers d’heure
The fundamentals, time
TODAY 1900
From ultra deep exploration
To ultra deepconversion
Is fuel expensive ? 1.5€ (0.5€ for oil company) for 42 MJ
Oil and fuelsHigh Technology,More and more risky,High characteristics(energetic density in volum)Without any public recognition
At a very LOW PRICE !!
The oil, squeezed between economic / environmental, toward a transition: variable depending on modes of transport, an acceptable price with alternatives necessarily massive to have a impact, in two waves: 1. explosion in the number of pathways, 2. specialization.
1st Wave:• 1st and 2nd generation biofuels with difficult assessments• Natural Gas "additived" with Biogas and H2,• Electricity (s) with variable performances,• Short loop (HAU, biogas, crude oil) in public or private management,
With multiple solutions in most cases:actual performance of the multi well to wheel (Biocarb, electricity) sensitiveDifficult Political decision making, little investment in infrastructure,difficult for manufacturers to follow all the pathway
=> The first wave could be long ...
The fundamentals, Energy
4000 engines / day
Millisecond, milligram,Cubic Millimeter of fuel
Micron machined
120 000 parts identical but all different
5 years warranty – 100 000 kmFull Energy in 3 minutes
20+/- 0.5°CVery low emissions and consumption / kWh
Vehicle – Internal Combustion Engine
Particules
NOx
HC
CO
EURO III
EURO 0
EURO -1
EURO IEURO II
EURO IV
18
14,4
11,2
14
2,4 3,50,36 0,15 1,10,10
5,03,5
8,07,0
0,02 0,660,46
4,54,02,11,5
EURO V2,0
Understand domination (2)
time
Fuel Consumption
Reduction due to Technical progress
But real progress are null :Accessories (€ benefits)Pseudo performance (€ benefits)Constraints emissions / safety.
60 years of difference and same FC …Progress, but for whom?
The fundamental, car economic model
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
PSA
BMW
TOYOTA
Puis
s (k
W)
Prix (€)E
EE
ET
D
E
D D
DD
D
D
D
EE
D
Power (maxi) Is easy to sell !
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
PSA
BMW
TOYOTA
essence
Diesel
Prix (€)
Mas
se (k
g)
The car is sold by kilo,no vehicle manufacturer sell a car lighter and more expensive
D D
DD
D
D
EEE
ET
The fundamental, car economic model
time
Fuel
con
s
isoperformance Potentiel ofTechnical benefits
Marketingmass
Real progress
From "new needs" of consumers :Comfort, safety, 4x4Increase "pseudo-performance"
YESTERDAY
The fundamental•Power (max, so unused by the client ...)•Flat screens in the headrests, air conditioning multizone ... (mass Merchant)•Respecting standards (Euro, security)•While being 'similar' in use => energy efficiency is not easy to sell
time
Fuel
con
s
Reduction in Marketing massIsoperformance => "90g Now"no extra cost
More Marketing MassMore technology"My minivan hybrid"
TOMORROW ou
The fundamental, car economic model
Where are you working ?In US, 30% of workers are « alone » and it’s increasing
MOVE
Et si la santé structurait nos pratiques de mobilités actives ?+ surveillance + numérique …
Mutations in Automotive sector :•Daimler, SNCF, Tesla, Induct, IBM …
Mutations around car sharing, car pooling•Blablacar, Carsonar, …
Mutations around data and mobile•Big Data, Smart City, Google Car
A RETENIR
VIDEOCybercar N°3
Question is not « How can we can a 2 l/100 km car ? »
But « What are the best mobility experiences, Who will produce theses experiences ? »
Multimodality, Connexion, Mobility …
Digital become Major TechnologyWe see the world across Digital technologyAutomotive is not main Matrix anymore
A RETENIR
Fashion clothing
« low cost & functional»2-3 wheels …
From multi-use…
Std Business modelFashion vehicleCybercarHigh technology
Transition from multi- to mono-use increase efficiency, reduce congestion andAllow new energy and technology penetration like electricity … ( can answer to « why not yesterday ? Why tomorrow ? What’s gona change ? » )Transition will appear with business model modification : from vehicle to mobility services
To mono-use…
Towards Mobility 2.0
Impact on objects? Options for Mobility 2.0
An efficient vehicle, light can more easily be integrated into services: because the operator has an interest (TCO) because the user does not buy the car!
We will use vehicles that we will not want to buy!
REMEMBER
REMEMBER: New mobility system change behavior andaffects vehicle’s specification, and therefore the technologiesto implement ... New competitors are coming!
Mono usage
2-3 roues …
From multi-use… Fashion clothing
Walk, Bike
Vélib’
Car
Car sharing
LocationAutolib’
Carpooling TaxiTransp.
On demand
Bus, trammétro
taxi
Individual association business collective
Public
Semi public
Private
ICE / oilMulti-use
Pseudo perfoConsumption
emissionsPrice
Economy ofVehicle
All energiesIncl. electricity
Mono-use
Top down
B to C et B to B
Mobility 1.0 Functionnalityeconomy
Top downBottom up
ITS
B to B
Real Perfoemissions
Real Consumption€/kmInvest
FiabilityAutonomy
ITSService Integration
Complete mobility service from door to door
Towards Mobility 2.0
All energies
B to C et B to B
Functionnalityeconomy
Top downBottom up
B to B
Real PerfoEmissions
Real Fuel consTCO
Mobility 2.0
Complete mobility service from door to door
Oil + engineMulti-usage
Economy of vehicle
Top down
B to C & B to B
Mobility 1.0
+ Infra 2.0
+ New Authority 2.0(multimodal,
With targets Air Quality, GHG, congestion…)
+ Personnal Travel Assistant
+ Open Data (etalab)
Political Decisions
REMEMBER
Autopartage
entre part.
Autop.« opéré »
Flotte de voiture« opérée »
VéloLibre serv.
Voiturepossédée
Integration / complexification foroperators
Integration / SimplificationFor users
Mobility Integrated & factor 4
More info, clic here
How to engage these changement quickly ?
Better utilisa°Of public transp.
What if we would have 2 person in a car (average) ?
More info, clic here
-40 % on GHG, pollu°, conso(-10% long.dist -10% urbain -20% rural)
sur VP-France
-20 % on GHG, pollu°, conso NRJ
sur Secteur Transport
-5 % GHG France-8 Mtoe/year (sur 160)- 8 Md€/year (oil cost)
France
More than half electricConsumption of allBuildings in France(13 Mtep)
20 years of techno.Reduction benefit(2% reduction / year)Techno VP - France
40 to 60 years for sameResult on all vehicle
Techno VP - France
Increase PT by factor Y
France
Close X nuclear reactorsOut of 58
France
AND IF …
Integration & Simplification of all transports modes
More info, clic here A.P.M. Personal Travel Assistant (PTA)
Autolib
Vélib
CarSharingPeer2 PeerCarPooling
Yesterday Today Tomorrow
Public = privateIndiv = Collective => « free seat market »Simple & real time access
(insurance, inscrip°…)Simple & real time exit
(payment, reputa°)
General Electric … Example of EV
Who will be able to learn & optimise the system ?What will be the value chain ?
What consequences for EV makers ?
Vehicle, futur simple commodityfor Mobility Providers ?
With the service we can (need) to Re-design the vehicle : EDAG & Vélib …
Velib is an innovation, but a system innovation bring withITS, infrastructure and business model
Velib bicycle is not a good bicycle but Velib service is successfull !
Velib service bring new Practise. « Bad » Velib bike design are low important
than benefits on Velib service.
Then Vehicle designed for services will be « poor » for standard vehicle consumer
& GE will be best positionned to design EV for Mobility Services …
Always Car but BETTER utilisation & connected to Public Transport
More info, clic here
New Car and other NrjLighter
Pay as you moveMore passenger per car
Raw material &InvestmentIn excess
Raw material &Investment mutualisedPay as you use
Access simplif.PaymentInsuranceIdentityconfidence
IdentityHistoricreputation
« Tomorrow, all industrial sectors will be transformed by the digital »
« Company Value in Digital economy : its capacity to capture positive externality created by the users »
« Data is the new oil » : user irruption,knowledge access (but who will have the data ?)
Application
Digital routes …
« Bikability »
How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
+ =
Lot 6Pilotage
+ €€Lot 5
How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
Vehicle Mutualisation help with activity analysis
More info, clic here
TODAY TOMORROW
ActivityAnalyses
Understand
Co-concep°
Mutualisa°
Acceptability
Appropria°
… by co-conception and
experimentation
Behavior CHANGE
Décembre 2014
3 barriers for Integra° & Simplifica°
More info, clic here
Identify & SynchroniseMain competences
Industry
BehaviorSkillacceptability
City
Open Data, Gouv 2.0 & Living Labs
More info, clic here
TODAY TOMORROW
Towards multimodality solutions in real time, Mobility 3.0
Opti Opti All Mode spec. & use
TrafficSensorsCamera
InfrastructureData
MobilityPassager
Car
MobilityService A
Car sharing
MobilityService B
Car pooling
MobilityService B
…
MobilityPublic
Transports
Multi modal Mobility Solution Tool
Multi mobility services > Mobility Service
TrafficSensorsCamera
InfrastructureData
Optimisation of allVehicle capacity
(CO2 & €)MobilityPassager
Car
MobilityService A
Car sharing
MobilityService B
Car pooling
MobilityService B
…
MobilityPublic
Transports
Real time seatmarket place
Offer / demand
Personnal Travel Assistant
Opti €, time, CO2
Multi modal Mobility Solution Tool
Instantaneous complexity system optimisation
City Mobility Optimisation
Assistant (congestion, CO2, pollu°)
New Mobility, new opportunity
Toward Gov 2.0
More info, clic here
constraints rewards
€, time, …
Knowledgedatabase
forecast
City
Operato
r
Citizen
industry
From real time to Forecasting
More info, clic here
Knowledge databaseOf real practise
Knowledgedatabase
forecast
forecast
ITS risks & opportunities
More info, clic here
TODAY TOMORROW
Knowledge databaseOf real practise
Multimode KeyAccess & exitSimple + instant.
ITS dependanceNumerical FracturePrivate Data protectionWho will have accessWho will manageConstraint/reward ?
DATA, Knowledge base & Expert Tools
More info, clic here
KNOWLEDGE DATABASE•Flux•Influent parameters•Function context
EXPERT TOOLS• Users oriented• Forcast• to improve choice• to improve utilisation
CITYOPERATORCITIZENCOMPANY produce
transportCOMPANY use
transport
VIDEOWalkscore, Copenhage wheel, Urban Mobs
Vehicle Evolutions bring by Behavior evolutionLess is more …
More info, clic here
Car owned
Car non-ownedless kmMore pass/veh
Car non-ownedAnd operatedless kmMore pass/vehMore efficient
Integration & Simplification – DOUBLE Benefit !
More info, clic here
Service Mobility brings :•Non-owned car•With New specifications•Used by citizens but not owned•Shared & operated•Using other energy•And much more efficient
HOW TO PREPARE MANUFACTURERS, SUPPLIERS, …BUT ALSO CITY MANAGER, OPERATORS
AND PUBLIC AUTHORITIES, GOVERNMENT, CITIZENS …
⇒ENGAGE INNOVATION + EXPERIMENTATIONin LIVING LAB
⇒STIMULATE LARGE ECOSYSTEM
⇒OPPORTUNITIES with « INVESTISSEMENTS d’AVENIR »1 Md€ for Transportation Innovations
Road Map Mobility
Key parameters:- Interoperability of transport modes,- Mobility vehicle owned / shared,
Interoperability weak Interoperability strong
Vehicle Owned Individual Mobility :-Personnal car,-Few Public transport
Individual Mobility connected, transition between mode improved
Mobility shared Alternative Mobility (Carsharing, Carpooling, bike, PT) but still separated
Multimodality real time, transition improved and connected, new light vehicle shared .
Key Deliverables
• Services mobility of passengers and goods transport oriented users, integrating business models tailored to different markets, conditions for success (profitability) as a function of the territories and customers,
• Support tools "real time" users oriented to facilitate the best choices for commuting and freight transport (integrated services)
• Support tools "real time" Mobility authority oriented, supplemented by new PPP, new modes of action (constraints / rewards)
• Adaptations to vehicles and infrastructure to enable them to communicate, to better integrate into the services, to provide information to users and authorities,
• Identification of issues associated with the deployment of these national solutions: economic, organizational, technological and regulatory
• Quantification of benefits (environment, energy, social, employment) offered by these systems.
Research actions for Mobility 2.0
• Multi-field : socio to techno, ITS to logistic …• Users science : how generate confidance ?
How to integrate new user behavior ?• Understanding & Optimisation of complex
system,• New method to understand new demand, to
design solutions with users and providers,• Tool for capitalisation in order to
« industrialise » methodology (not the solutions)
• Living labs, requested to test, design, validate
• Transition from Vehicle-object to Service is a chance for industry, citizen and environment,
• New Value Chains, new actor,• Who will be multimodal mobility operator? • New ecosystem, user will be center• Data is the heart : to share ! • New culture to develop : formation
REMEMBER
REMEMBER
At short term integration / simplification allow :• to do more w/o investment,• to increase resilience and possibilities,• to access to F4 road including QA, access equity
But develop new risks :• ITS dependance,• Competence Transfert toward private entity (smart city)• Question of private data• Who & How will be manage constraints/rewards ?
Complexus • Increase for all stakeholders : knowledge, skills, links• Synchronise all • Co-design mobility solutions beginning with real need of citizens
activitiesMore info, clic here
Project example …
Mobility Solutions
Validated in real live
Conception Engineering system for Mobility Solutions based on
activity analyse
Evaluation Model of Mobility Solution :
Acceptability, acceptation, appropriation
Realisation of Expert System based on Artifical
Intelligence
Network of validated Mobility solutions
Experienced in living lab
Mobility demandSpecialised function
Of context
Mobility Solutions
Users Mobility Providers
Learning curve
Collaborative Space
Adaptation
Main Deliverables
Living Lab forevaluation
MethodologyFor Mobility
solutions validation
Expert SystemFor Mobility
Service proposition
Adaptation
One slide summary
•Car will not change, but driver behavior will change•Mobility knowledge and demand will increase (who will own them ?)•Then car will change and will be re-deisgn with new services.
If Confidence,Indiv. & collec. benefits
User experiencemobile
DecisionTools
knowledge
Digital world
vehicle
Servicesexperiences
Multi. actorssynchro
Physicalworld
pers.km (flux)
Billions City Extra urban
Long dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL 700
City Extra urban
Long dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
/
pers / vehicle
=
City Extra urban
Long dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
vehicle.km
combustion
combustion+ electricity
electricity
gCO2/km – MJ/km
combustion
combustion+ electricity
electricity
Utilisation (% distance)
averagegCO2/km – MJ/km
X =
X
=
MTCO2 – MJBy energyBy vehicle
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
800,0
900,0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
VoyageursMarch
325
Flux de véhicule(Md véh.km)
Flux de voyageur(Md voy.km) et de Marchandises(G T.km)
343
377
711
790
750
425 428
300
77 85
60
2422
27
pers.km, vehicle.km and ton.km(flux)
Pers/veh in PC serv: 1,2 1,5 2% flux by PC serv 0 (city/extra/LD) 10-10-5 25-20-15Pers/veh in Bus ref +20% +20%/2030% flux by Bike 4-1-0 10-6-0 15-7-0% flux by Bus 6 10 15
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)Emissions de GES en MTCO2 et facteur de réduction (réf 1990)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
71,217,7
32,1
40,6
21,9
10,1
14,511
3,5
121
72
29
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
40,00
45,00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
38,5 1
24,5 2
12
5
CONSOMMATIONS ENERGETIQUES en MTEP(liquide/gaz et électricité)
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Electricité
Electricité
Electricité
GHG emission (MTCO2) and reduction factor
ENERGY in MTEP
• « standard » Progress • Electric, plug-in : first for PC serv• 2030 mix fleet : 100 gCO2/km 25 millions PC : 5% EV, 9% plug-in• 2050 mix fleet : 56 gCO2/km 16 millions PC : 28% EV, 38% plug-in
Biofuel potential :•5 MTEP biogas•3 MTEP liquid (2G)
gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
Thank you for your Attention
http://transportsdufutur.typepad.fr
