Trend Forecasting Process

FMD 451

Fashion Forecasting The creative process that can be

understood, practiced, and applied by anyone who has the tools.

Need to have a balanced view that seeks out new styles breaking the cultural edge, and the reality of changing demographics, identifies the fad, and the long wave of change.

Uses: product planning, gain market share, position products against competitors, shape collections, style directions, color and textiles directions, ect.

Steps in developing a forecast

1. ID the facts about past trends/forecasts2. Determine cause of change in the past3. Look at differences between past

forecasts and consumer behavior4. Identify factors likely to affect future trends5. Apply forecasting tools and techniques

accurately. 6. Follow the forecast continually- see if

expectations deviate7. Revise the forecast when necessary.

Forecasting Specialties

Long term forecasts- 5 or more yearsShort term forecasts- more than one

year ahead.

Forecasting Scans- Media Scan1. Fashion scans- follow latest fashion and

lifestyle trends: visit Fashion capitals, scan media, network with people in the creative fields (arts, entertainment, interior design, cosmetics, and architecture.

2. Consumer Scans- Consumer segmentation (you already did), point of sale data (retailers and manufactures).

Fashion scan + consumer scan= fashion analysis- what will happen next!

Do your research!

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Media Scan:Trend ID, analysis and synthesis Soak up news that

relates to change!1. National newspaper-

Wall Street Journal, New York Times

2. Trade papers- WWD, California Apparel News, Advertising Age

3. Fashion and Lifestyle magazines( food, travel, home décor, health, gossip, political, buisness, science, men’s and womens)

4. Internet- Popular Culture (world wide): coolhunter

5. Watch past fashion shows

6. Take a trip to popular shopping venues, fashionable neighborhoods.

7. Pop Culture: movies, music, TV, books, theater, art.

Media Scan:Trend ID, analysis and synthesis Collect bits and pieces from a broad spectrum

of sources. Link signals, shape them into a vision of what

the future may be. Pay attention to:1. New and unusual business2. Innovative and novel products3. Unusual travel destinations4. New, rediscovered, or redesigned leisure activities. 5. New shopping locations,store designs, services.6. Stories about people and their adjustment to life’s

challenges. 7. Neighborhoods with interesting mix of people,

shopping or ethnic cultures.

Media Scan:Trend ID, analysis and synthesis Collect information( folders), organize it into

a list of themes, issues, ideas, that capture your attention.

Trends require a label! Start general and become specific!-general examples: new music, financial

issues, cult movies, unusual jobs- specific examples: “cyberstyle”,

“GenNesters”, “Asian Influence”*Once the trend begins to emerge, think about

how the trend relates to a specific product category or target market.

Media Scan:Trend ID, analysis and synthesis

Ideas for Project 2: Media scan Trend folders Cite all resources used You should address all parts of the media

scan. Summarize what your found- Pick 10

major topics/broad categories(20 sources in each) Index them in your paper with sources and images. Summarize in your paper.

Describe the Zeitgeist- “ The Spirit of the Times” Fashion is a reflection of the times in which it is

created and worn. Fashion responds to what is modern, all cultural

components respond to the spirit of the times. The Zeitgeist covers all product categories. Media reports culture but is also shaped by it. Lifecycles are associated with the Zeitgeist. “An expression of modernity, of the current

state of culture, of the incipient and unarticulated tastes of the consuming public.”

Zeitgeist Next generation-

Tweens 8-12, looking to computer games and Japanese comic books for inspiration.

Pay attention to: Style interactions between apparel, cuisine, sports, architecture, interiors, automobiles, toys, avocations, pastimes, and play.

Changes in the marketplace:

1. New fashion- seasonal to continuous

2. Lack of design leadership

3. Rules for appropriateness relaxed

4. Consumers declared independence

5. Emergence of No fashion-casual Friday, ect.

6. Cheap chic7. Fast fashion

Fashion History Research- Describe the following: Designer’s signature style, ex. Tom Ford

1990’s Style leader- Jacqueline Kennedy- 1960’s A fashion look- Flapper look 1920’s Bohemian element- The hippies, hip hop Market segment middle class 1950’s Celebrity Icon- Madonna material girl-

1980’s Model- Twiggy 1960’s Fiber/fabric- Chanel Jersey

Timeline

Research

Describe- what is shaping the trend, Why has the trend developedWho is leading the trend.Look to past designs- Cyclical nature

of fashion!Analyze the trends that affect your

target market.

Forecast for 2010! Color

Color Story- combined into prints, fabrics, all areas usually 200 pieces per collection.

Work 18-24 months in advanceColor Association of the United StatesPsychology of color- color

preferences. Separate for men, women, interiors,

youth.

Words used in colorHue- the color nameSaturation/ chroma- intensity, strength

of color, Value- lightness or darkness of a

color. Tint- white addedShade- black addedTone- Grey addedExamples: concentrated, deep,

subdue, clear.

Color Marketing- Name Name a color with imagination, should be

able to be used across product categories, understand your customer’s perception of the colors. You want to depict a mood!

Examples from the environment: Natural phenomena sky, sunshine, grass green. Flora- poppy red, moss green, orchid Fauna- flamingo pink, robin egg blue Gemstones- amber, copper Food and drink- caramel, champagne, Spices- paprika, curry red Dyes- indigo Building materials- adobe, terra cotta, bronze Locations- Capri blue

Color Cycles High chroma-- multi colored--subdue colors--

earth tones-- achromatic colors (black, white, grey)--purple.

Look at your media scan--- what did you see- colors celebrities were wearing, locations, music covers, interiors, museum exhibits, toys, electronics, food, graphics, ect. What is selling in stores?!

May be done in house or use a professional color system like PANTONE.

Images will help you describe color choices. Predict 4-7 colors per direction. Think about season- weather, temperature

Textiles

Overall style: botanical, romantic, folkloric Interpretation- realistic, abstract, geometric. Scale- small vs large scale motifs Figure ground relationship- blank space vs.

crowded patterns Reference to art styles Art Deco Complexity Cultural reference- Asian inspired, African motifs Historic references- time periods Color story- sherbet colors, tropical, brights with

Neutral. Motifs- golf, seashell, animal print.

The Look: Design The totality of the look:

minimalist, feminine, sexy redifined.

Theme or Mood: gothic romanticisim

Swing of fashion pendulum- flared to narrow

Proportions of pieces-placement of waistline

Silhouette- tubular, hourglass, wedge

Point of emphasis- shoulders, bust, waist

Fit- body hugging, loose Details- collar, pocket,

sleeve, cuff Exaggeration in details. Trims- beading,

feathers, lace Findings- button,

zippers, snaps Fabric type- woven,

knits, Fabric finishing- dyeing,

abrasion Specific fabrics-

transparent, velvet, ect.

Semiotics The science of

analyzing culture as a system of signs.

Visual concepts:1. Referencing the

past2. Ethnic sources3. Sexuality4. Sports5. Appropriateness-

“uptown chic”

6. Avant-Garde7. Modernity8. Postmodern

Trends

Mega Trend- restructuring of culture affects all industries ex. Eco friendly

Major Trend- broad public appealMinor Trend- limited or small appeal.

Only refers to a specialized group of consumers.

Describe potential of trend, how long it will last, interaction with other trends.

Trend Reporting; Label the trend Look- retro, Japanese influence Mood or spirit- youthful, playful Lifestyle message Tie in with celebrity Target Market- urban youth Brand image Concept- career casual Source of inspiration- Moroccan Pop culture influence

Forecasting Traps Time, limitations, assumptions Lack of imagination, research, insight Excessive Optimism Hidden Agendas, wish fulfillment vs. reality Two sides of the coin- trend and countertrend Generation gap Overlapping trends- sectors Fad vs. Trend Don’t oversell. See Appendix for resources(Mudpie.co.uk, WGSN)