Trend Forecasting ProcessFMD 451Fashion Forecasting The creative process that can be understood, practiced, and applied by anyone who has the tools. Need to have a balanced view that seeks out new styles breaking the cultural edge, and the reality of changing demographics, identifies the fad, and the long wave of change. Uses: product planning, gain market share, position products against competitors, shape collections, style directions, color and textiles directions, ect.$teps in developing a forecast1. D the facts about past trends/forecasts2. Determine cause of change in the past3. Look at differences between past forecasts and consumer behavior4. dentify factors likely to affect future trends5. Apply forecasting tools and techniques accurately. 6. Follow the forecast continually- see if expectations deviate7. Revise the forecast when necessary. Forecasting $pecialties Long term forecasts- 5 or more years $hort term forecasts- more than one year ahead. Forecasting $cans-Media $can1. Fashion scans- follow latest fashion and lifestyle trends: visit Fashion capitals, scan media, network with people in the creative fields (arts, entertainment, interior design, cosmetics, and architecture. 2. Consumer Scans- Consumer segmentation (you already did), point of sale data (retailers and manufactures).Fashion scan + consumer scan= fashion analysis- what will happen next!Do your research!-Media $can:Trend D, analysis and synthesis $oak up news that relates to change!1. National newspaper-Wall $treet Journal, New York Times2. Trade papers- WWD, California Apparel News, Advertising Age3. Fashion and Lifestyle magazines( food, travel, home dcor, health, gossip, political, buisness, science, men's and womens)4. nternet- Popular Culture (world wide): coolhunter5. Watch past fashion shows6. Take a trip to popular shopping venues, fashionable neighborhoods.7. Pop Culture: movies, music, TV, books, theater, art.Media $can:Trend D, analysis and synthesis Collect bits and pieces from a broad spectrum of sources. Link signals, shape them into a vision of what the future may be. Pay attention to:1. New and unusual business2. nnovative and novel products3. Unusual travel destinations4. New, rediscovered, or redesigned leisure activities. 5. New shopping locations,store designs, services.6. $tories about people and their adjustment to life's challenges. 7. Neighborhoods with interesting mix of people, shopping or ethnic cultures.Media $can:Trend D, analysis and synthesis Collect information( folders), organize it into a list of themes, issues, ideas, that capture your attention. Trends require a label!$tart general and become specific!-general examples: new music, financial issues, cult movies, unusual jobs- specific examples: "cyberstyle, "GenNesters, "Asian nfluence*Once the trend begins to emerge, think about how the trend relates to a specific product category or target market.Media $can:Trend D, analysis and synthesisdeas for Project 2: Media scan Trend folders Cite all resources used You should address all parts of the media scan. $ummarize what your found- Pick 10 major topics/broad categories(20 sources in each) ndex them in your paper with sources and images. $ummarize in your paper. Describe the Zeitgeist-" The $pirit of the Times Fashion is a reflection of the times in which it is created and worn. Fashion responds to what is modern, all cultural components respond to the spirit of the times. The Zeitgeist covers all product categories. Media reports culture but is also shaped by it. Lifecycles are associated with the Zeitgeist. "An expression of modernity, of the current state of culture, of the incipient and unarticulated tastes of the consuming public.ZeitgeistNext generation-Tweens 8-12, looking to computer games and Japanese comic books for inspiration. Pay attention to: $tyle interactions between apparel, cuisine, sports, architecture, interiors, automobiles, toys, avocations, pastimes, and play. Changes in the marketplace:1. Newfashion- seasonal to continuous2. Lack of design leadership3. Rules for appropriateness relaxed4. Consumers declared independence5. Emergence of No fashion-casual Friday, ect.6. Cheap chic7. Fast fashionFashion History Research-Describe the following: Designer's signature style, ex. Tom Ford 1990's$tyle leader- Jacqueline Kennedy- 1960's A fashion look- Flapper look 1920's Bohemian element- The hippies, hip hop Market segment middle class 1950's Celebrity con- Madonna material girl-1980's Model- Twiggy 1960's Fiber/fabric- Chanel JerseyTimelineResearch Describe- what is shaping the trend, Why has the trend developed Who is leading the trend. Look to past designs- Cyclical nature of fashion! Analyze the trends that affect your target market. Forecast for 2010! Color Color $tory- combined into prints, fabrics, all areas usually 200 pieces per collection. Work 18-24 months in advance Color Association of the United $tates Psychology of color- color preferences. $eparate for men, women, interiors, youth. Words used in color Hue- the color name $aturation/ chroma- intensity, strength of color, Value- lightness or darkness of a color. Tint- white added $hade- black added Tone- Grey added Examples: concentrated, deep, subdue, clear.Color Marketing- Name Name a color with imagination, should be able to be used across product categories, understand your customer's perception of the colors. You want to depict a mood! Examples from the environment: Natural phenomena sky, sunshine, grass green. Flora- poppy red, moss green, orchid Fauna- flamingo pink, robin egg blue Gemstones- amber, copper Food and drink- caramel, champagne, $pices- paprika, curry red Dyes- indigo Building materials- adobe, terra cotta, bronze Locations- Capri blueColor Cycles High chroma-- multi colored--subdue colors-- earth tones-- achromatic colors (black, white, grey)--purple. Look at your media scan--- what did you see- colors celebrities were wearing, locations, music covers, interiors, museum exhibits, toys, electronics, food, graphics, ect. What is selling in stores?! May be done in house or use a professional color system like PANTONE. mages will help you describe color choices. Predict 4-7 colors per direction. Think about season- weather, temperatureTextiles Overall style: botanical, romantic, folkloric nterpretation- realistic, abstract, geometric.$cale- small vs large scale motifs Figure ground relationship- blank space vs. crowded patterns Reference to art styles Art Deco Complexity Cultural reference- Asian inspired, African motifs Historic references- time periods Color story- sherbet colors, tropical, brights with Neutral. Motifs- golf, seashell, animal print.The Look: DesignThe totality of the look: minimalist, feminine, sexy redifined.Theme or Mood: gothic romanticisim $wing of fashion pendulum- flared to narrowProportions of pieces-placement of waistline $ilhouette- tubular, hourglass, wedgePoint of emphasis-shoulders, bust, waistFit- body hugging, looseDetails- collar, pocket, sleeve, cuffExaggeration in details.Trims- beading, feathers, laceFindings- button, zippers, snapsFabric type- woven, knits,Fabric finishing-dyeing, abrasion $pecific fabrics-transparent, velvet, ect.$emiotics The science of analyzing culture as a system of signs. 'isuaI concepts:1. Referencing the past2. Ethnic sources3. $exuality4. $ports5. Appropriateness-"uptown chic6. Avant-Garde7. Modernity8. PostmodernTrends Mega Trend- restructuring of culture affects all industries ex. Eco friendly Major Trend- broad public appeal Minor Trend- limited or small appeal. Only refers to a specialized group of consumers. Describe potential of trend, how long it will last, interaction with other trends. Trend Reporting; Label the trend Look- retro, Japanese influence Mood or spirit- youthful, playful Lifestyle message Tie in with celebrity Target Market- urban youth Brand image Concept- career casual$ource of inspiration- Moroccan Pop culture influenceForecasting Traps Time, limitations, assumptions Lack of imagination, research, insight Excessive Optimism Hidden Agendas, wish fulfillment vs. reality Two sides of the coin- trend and countertrend Generation gap Overlapping trends- sectors Fad vs. Trend Don't oversell. $ee Appendix for resources(Mudpie.co.uk, WG$N)