Global economic and trade trends: game changer for ports? › Ortra › IAPH2012 › IAPH... · Distribution of European container trade volumes 9% 3% 10% Exports from Europe Asia

Global economic and trade trends: game changer for ports?

22 May 2012, JerusalemProf. Dr. Theo NotteboomPresident, ITMMA – University of AntwerpPresident, International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME)

The International Association of Ports & Harborswww.iaphworldports.org

http://www.iaphworldports.org

International Association of Ports & Harbors

www.iame.info

http://www.iame.info

Trade flows: a world of regional trading blocks


Source: adapted from Notteboom (2012)

Share of intra-regional merchandise trade in total tradeBasis = trade value in billion dollars

8

6

49

19

12

10

53

Commonwealth of Independent

Africa

Middle East

Asia

2010

2000


Source: own compilation based on WTO data

40

17

68

27

49

26

71

19

00 20 40 60 80

North America

South and Central America

Europe

Commonwealth of IndependentStates (CIS)

Trade flows: a world of global cities2012 Global Cities Index – top 15 cities worldwide


Source: The Chicago Council for Global Affairs and AT Kearney

Trade flows: a world of global cities2012 Global Cities Index – future position of emerging cities


Source: The Chicago Council for Global Affairs and AT Kearney

Trade flows: share of Asia in total merchandise trade?Basis = trade value in billion dollars

7

17

48

15

24

53

Commonwealth of IndependentStates (CIS)

Africa

Middle East

2010


Source: own compilation based on WTO data

22

6

8

21

23

9

00 10 20 30 40 50 60

North America

South and Central America

Europe

2010

2000

Distribution of European container trade volumes

9%

3%10%

Exports from Europe

Asia

Indian subcon nent and Mi ddl e East

8%

1% 4%

Imports to Europe Asia

Indian subcon nent and Middle EastNorth America

ExtraExtra--European European Container trade volumes – 2011 – basis = TEU

15.9 mln TEU 21.4 mln TEU


38%

19%

21%

9%EastNorth America

South & Central America

Australia and Oceania

Sub-Saharan Africa

65%9%

13%North America

South & CentralAmericaAustralia and Oceania

Sub-Saharan Africa

IntraIntra--EuropeanEuropean3.7 mln TEU or 9.1% of total European container traffic

Asia rising: the top container port regions in the world

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65TEU th

orughp

ut in M

illions

Pearl River Delta (China)

Malacca Straits (Singapore/Malaysia)

Yangtze River Delta (China)

Bohai Bay (China)

Rhine-Scheldt Delta (Bel/Nl)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

TEU th

orughp

ut in M

illions

Rhine-Scheldt Delta (Bel/Nl)

Korean Twin Hub (Korea)

San Pedro Bay (US West Coast)

Helgoland Bay (Germany)

Taiwan

Tokyo Bay (Japan)

Source: Notteboom (2012)

Routing of trade flows

• The future of seaports is not only about expected future trade flows.

• It is more about how and under which conditions these


• It is more about how and under which conditions these flows will move globally within a supply chain perspective.

=> Key role for ports: port activity can not be narrowed down to a derived activity

Routing of trade flows: a layered perspective

LogisticalShipper

CustomerDistribution networks,

port choice,modal choice, IT

Maritime service networks,Intermodal networks


Locational

Infrastructural

TransportIntermodal networks

Transport infrastructure

networks

Routing of trade flows: key considerations




Routing trade flows: the asset management gameLower costs through scale increases in vessel size

• New standard sizes on mainline routes• Cascading of vessels to north-south routes• Upscaling of feeder vessel sizes

Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)

FlexibilityResilienceReliability

Sustainability


Triple ‘E’ class – source: Maersk Line

Routing trade flows: cost Low margins are stimulating a focus on cost control

cust

omer

High Delivering a ‘high value’

service

Problem: how



Sustainability


Value creation for customer

Pric

e to

cust

omer

LowLow

High

Providing a ‘low cost’ service

What the market wants

Problem: howto secure margins?

COST-EFFICIENT ports and port systemsAs part of cost-efficient chains and networks

• Shift of cost burden from seaside to landside• Gains mainly to be made in terms of bundling and synchronizing flows• Role of ports as information centres• PA pricing: cost-based pricing vs. commercial/strategic pricing



Sustainability


• PA pricing: cost-based pricing vs. commercial/strategic pricing



Need for SUSTAINABILITYThe carbon footprint challenge

Example of externali eson or i gi n- des na onrou tes

Mari me + i nl andt ranspor t (index = 100 is lowe stCO 2 emission on route)



Sustainability


SUSTAINABLE ports and port systems

• Higher regulatory and societal requirements • Compliance in order to ensure community support & to attract customers.• Environmental management system, toolbox, sustainability report, etc..• Cost of going beyond compliance?



Sustainability




FLEXIBILITY in the global transport system

Routing possibilities on the North Europe - Far East trade

East-West rail corridors

Northern Sea Route

c ab

da

e

Northwest Passage



Sustainability


Source: adapted from Notteboom (2012)

Cape Route

Suez Canal

Legenda = Trans-Siberian Railwayb = Trans-Manchurian Railway c = Trans-Mongolian Railwayd = Baikal Amur Mainline (BAM) e = New Asia-Europe Land-Bridge

Panama Canal route

AirFreight rateto shipper

(gate-to-gate)

Impact slow steaming &

Direct services ?Fast ships ?

FLEXIBILITY in the global transport systemFilling the gap?



Sustainability


Transit me

Liner shipping

steaming &transshipment

Americas

Transhipment/interlining port (transhipment incidence >75%)

Multi-port gateway region

Main shipping route

Gateway port

Gateway port also handlingsubstantial transhipment flows

UK

NL

Ireland

Sweden

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Norway

Finland

Belarus

Russia

Den.

FLEXIBILITY (and concentra on) in the European port system

Middle East – Far East

Main shipping route

Americas

Americas

© 2011 T. Notteboom – ITMMA, University of Antwerp

Germany

France

Belg.

NL

Romania

Spain

Croatia

Hungar

Czech RepublicSlovakia

SerbiaBosnia&

Herz.

Alb.

Greece

Bulgaria

Turkey

Ukraine

PortugalMace.

AustriaSwitz.

Italy

Poland

MoroccoAlgeria Tunisia

Cyprus

Malta

FLEXIBILITY in the European port system

Multi-port gateway regions – example Rhine-Scheldt Delta

0 50 100 150 20025Kilometers

Germany

NetherlandsROTTERDAM

Emmerich

Nijmegem

Amsterdam

Alkmaar

Beverwijk Zaandam

HarlingenLeeuwarden

Veendam

Meppel

GroningenHeerenveen

Kampen

Coevorden

Hengelo

DoesburgUtrechtA. a/d Rijn

Gorinchem

Den BoschOss

Valburg

Seaport

Logistics corridors

Inland Container Terminal (trimodal)Inland Container Terminal (barge/truck)Inland Container Terminal (rail/truck)

Growth region EuropeanDistribution (outside seaport system)

Dordrecht

Urk

LelystadEnkhuizen

Waalwijk

HaaftenTiel

Veghel Cuijk



Sustainability

International Association of Ports & HarborsSource: Notteboom (2012)

France

Belgium

Lux

GermanyZeeland Seaports

ANTWERPZeebrugge

Ghent

Ostend

BrusselsLilleLiège

WielsbekeGenk

DuisburgEmmerich

Avelgem

Born

Venlo

Valenciennes

VilvoordeWillebroek

Deurne

Meerhout

Duesseldorf

Cologne

Krefeld

Neuss

Bonn

Andernach

DortmundTilburgOosterhout

Eindhoven

Moerdijk Den Bosch

Stein

Mertert

Koblenz

DormagenDunkirk

Ghlin Mons

Charleroi Centre Ardenne

Athus

Grobbendonk

Dourges

Bettembourg

La Louvière Sambreville

Kortrijk

Mouscron

Muizen

Herent

Beringen

Lanaken

Veghel

Weert

WanssumCuijk

Need for RELIABILITYSchedule reliability in liner shipping - April-June 2010



Sustainability


Source: based on data Drewry

Need for RESILIENCE Calamities, disasters, political changes are affecting supply chains



Sustainability


RELIABILITY, FLEXIBILITY and RESILIENCE demand VISIBILITY through advanced IT systems



Sustainability

International Association of Ports & HarborsSource: DHL

FLEXIBLE ports and port systems

Seaport choice is likely to become more flexible• Last minute decisions on final port choice? • B/L for inland destinations• Driven by equipment utilization, liner service synchronization• “Not all eggs in one basket”



Sustainability


• “Not all eggs in one basket”

RELIABLE ports and port systems

Ports will increasingly have to offer service guarantees• In a supply chain setting (foreland-port-hinterland)• Adopting new partnership models• Even in a more volatile business environment



Sustainability


Promise to partners, to investors, to the

communities

RESILIENT ports and port systems

• To support supply chain resilience• Redefining the buffer function of seaports in supply chains• Implications on land utilization and strategic port planning



Sustainability


Conclusion: is the game changing for ports?

• Higher uncertainties and risks facing ports & port authorities

• Future will bring stronger focus on • cost efficiency• flexibility, resilience, reliability


• flexibility, resilience, reliability• sustainability

• Should PA focus on single port?• Foreland-port-hinterland triptych• Multi-port gateway region

Thank you for your attention !

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www.itmma.ua.ac.bewww.porteconomics.eu

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Documents

Global economic and trade trends: game changer for ports? › Ortra › IAPH2012 › IAPH... · Distribution of European container trade volumes 9% 3% 10% Exports from Europe Asia