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7/29/2019 Estudio Sobre Internet 2011 2016 95420143 VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast 2011 2016
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2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1
Cisco Confidential 1 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)
Global Forecast Update; 20112016
May 2012Under Embargo Until May 30, 2012
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Service Adoption
Forecast
Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.
Fixed & Mobile IP
Traffic Forecast
ResidentialMobileBusiness
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By 2016, global IP traffic willreach an annual run rate of1.3 zettabytes per year
1.3 zettabytes is equal to:
10X more than all IP trafficgenerated in 2008 (121 exabytes)
38 million DVDs per hour
What is a zettabyte?
One trillion gigabytes
Approximately 1021(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)
Source:Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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94 EBper mo
31 EBper mo
110 EBper mo
77 EBper mo
59 EBper mo
44 EBper mo
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
More Devices
More Internet Users
Faster Broadband Speeds
More Rich Media Content
GrowthCatalysts
Nearly 19 Billion Connections 4-Fold Speed Increase
3.4 Billion Internet Users 1.2 Million Video Minutes/Second
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North America
2.9 Billion by 2016CAGR 14.1%
Western Europe
2.6 Billion by 2016CAGR 13.2%
Central/Eastern Europe
1.3 Billion by 2016CAGR 10.2%
Latin America
1.6 Billion by 2016CAGR 12.2%
Middle East & Africa
1.8 Billion by 2016CAGR 10.4%
Asia Pacific
8.7 Billion by 2016CAGR 14.1%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NumberofDevices(B)
372M
3.57B
57.2% CAGR 20112016
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices
4.03B
NumberofDev
ices(B)
49% CAGR 20112016
372M
3.57B
662M
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
IPv6-Capable Fixed Business Devices IPv6-Capable Fixed Consumer Devices
2.45B
NumberofDevices(B) 65.2%
CAGR
91M
1.12B
281M
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
54.2%CAGR
57.2% CAGR 20112016
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North America
269 Million by 2016CAGR 1.6%
Western Europe
319 Million by 2016CAGR 2.5%
Central/Eastern Europe
197 Million by 2016CAGR 7.7%
Latin America
287 Million by 2016CAGR 11.0%
Middle East & Africa
542 Million by 2016CAGR 16.1%
Asia Pacific
1.7 Billion by 2016CAGR 13.2%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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=
=
Tablet
Internet-Enabled 3DTV
Internet-Enabled HDTV
64-bit Laptop/PC
Gaming Consoles
1.2 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
= 4.1 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
= 2.0 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
=3.2 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
3.4 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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North America
3.5-Fold growth11 to 37 Mbps
Western Europe
3.8-Fold growth11 to 42 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
3.1-Fold growth10 to 29 Mbps
Latin America
2.8-Fold growth4.2 to 12 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
2.5-Fold growth3.4 to 8.4 Mbps
Asia Pacific
4.4-Fold growth8.1 to 36 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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10 Mbps
44%of all broadbandconnections by 2016
5 Mbps
74%of all broadbandconnections by 2016
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
2 Online Video(HD Streams)
1 SD BusinessVideoconference
1 Online musicstream
3 Online Video(HD Streams)
1 Business DesktopConference call
4 Online musicstreams
1 Online Gamingstream
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10 Mbps
44%of all broadbandconnections by 2016
5 Mbps
74%of all broadbandconnections by 2016
3%of all broadbandconnections by 2016
100Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
20 minutes 2 minutes
Online Video (HD movie download)
41 minutes
Online Video (HD movie download) Online Video (HD movie download)
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Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
Fastest Growing
Residential Services
TAM and Devices for
Residential Market
Highest Penetrated
Residential ServiceTV Households2011: 1.7 Billion2016: 1.9 Billion
Residential Internet Users2011: 1.7 Billion2016: 2.3 Billion
Devices/Connections2011: 2.4 Billion2016: 5.4 Billion
Digital TV13.8% CAGR2011: 694 Million2016: 1.3 Billion
VoIP10.6% CAGR2011: 560 Million2016: 928 Million
Online Music2011: 1.1 Billion63% of Internet Users
2016:1.8 Billion79% of Internet Users
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Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
Fastest Growing
Business Services
TAM and Devices for
Business Market
Highest Penetrated
Business ServicesBusiness Internet Users2011: 1.6 Billion2016: 2.3 Billion
Business Mobile Users2011: 483 Million2016: 569 Million
Devices/Connections2011: 2.2 Billion2016: 5.0 Billion
Desktop Video43.2% CAGR2011: 36 Million2016: 219 Million
LBS*42.9% CAGR2011: 27 Million2016: 158 Million
Instant Messaging (IM)2011: 470 Million30% of Business Internet Users
2016:745 Million32% of Business Internet Users
SMS (texting)2011: 364 Million75% of Business Mobile Users
2016: 498 Million88% of Business Mobile Users
* LBS=Location Based Services
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2016
32.3 GB
Traffic/month
2011
11.5 GB
Traffic/month
50 GB
Traffic/month
Future
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
3 Online HD movievideos13 VoD episodes
6 HD Desktop videoconferencing calls
122 Online music
tracks
2 3D Online HD movievideos8 Online HD movievideos38 VoD episodes
14 HD Desktop videoconferencing calls
307 Online musictracks
2 Online 3D movievideos11 Online HD movievideos53 VoD episodes
33 HD Desktop videoconferencing calls
307 Online musictracks
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2016
83.7 GBTraffic/month
2011
26.2 GBTraffic/month
100 GB
Traffic/month
Future
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
7 Online HD movievideos30 VoD episodes
12 HD Desktopvideo conferencingcalls
239Online music
tracks
4 3D movies20 HD movies95 VoD episodes
33 HD Desktop videoconferencing calls
683 Online musictracks
6 3D movies23 HD movies114 VoD episodes
40 HD Desktopvideo conferencingcalls
802 Online musictracks
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North America
27.5 EB/Month by 201622% CAGR, 3X Growth
Western Europe
24.4 EB/Month by 201627% CAGR, 3X Growth
Central/Eastern Europe
6.0 EB/Month by 201639% CAGR, 5X Growth
Latin America
7.6 EB/Month by 2016
49% CAGR, 7X Growth
Middle East & Africa
3.8 EB/Month by 201658% CAGR, 10X Growth
Asia Pacific
40.6 EB/Month by 201631% CAGR, 4X Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PetabytesperMonth
Non-PC Based Traffic
PC-Based Traffic
69%
22%
78%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
29% CAGR 20112016
31%
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Petabytespe
rMonth
Mobile Data (78% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-fi (34% CAGR) 39%
51%
10%
29% CAGR 20112016
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Petabytes/Month
Business
Consumer12%
88%
16%
84%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
29% CAGR 20102015
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PetabytesperM
onth
VoIP
Online Gaming
File Sharing
Web/Data
Internet Video
Online Gaming and VoIP forecast to be 0.73% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2016
22%
23%
54%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
29% CAGR 20112016
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Petabytes
perMonth
Video CallingAmbient Video and Internet PVR
Internet-Video-to-PC: LiveMobile VideoInternet-Video-to-PC: Short FormInternet-Video-to-TVInternet-Video-to-PC: Long Form 8%
11%
37%
8%
14%
14%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
8%
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PetabytesperMonth
Business Mobile Data
Business Managed IP *
Business Internet *
27%
54%
* Video conferencing is included in both the Business Internet and Managed IP categories
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
22% CAGR 20112016
19%
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PetabytesperMonth
Video Phones
Executive Video Conferencing
Multiscreen Room Video Conferencing
Desktop Video Conferencing
Singlescreen Room Video Conferencing
Web Conferencing with Video
18%
61%
Multiscreen/Executive Videoconferencing and Videophones will be 1.4 % of all business video traffic in 2015
19%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
42% CAGR 20112016
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Total IP Traffic 110 Exabytes per month by 2016
By 2016, annual global IP traffic will reach 1.3 zettabyte
Fixed Internet 80.6 Exabytes per month by 2016
Managed IP 18.1 Exabytes per month by 2016
By 2016, 1.2 M video minutes cross the network each second
Business IP video conferencing will grow 6-fold from 2011-2016
Mobile Data
Mobile video will increase 18-fold from 2011 to 2016
10.8 Exabytes per month by 2016
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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Press Releases
White Papers / FAQs
Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps
IP Traffic Forecast inquiries:[email protected] Adoption Forecast inquiries:[email protected]
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vniService Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa
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Thank you.
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In 2011, there were 2.4B residential devices and connections;by 2016, there will be 5.4B residential devices and connections(17.3% CAGR).
In 2011, there were 5.6B consumer mobile devices and connections;
by 2016, there will be 8.4B consumer mobile devices and connections(8.3% CAGR).
In 2011, there were 2.2B business devices and connections;by 2016, there will be 5.1B business devices and connections(18% CAGR).
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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Digital TV will be the fastest growing service across allresidential service categories (TV & Internet) from 2011to 2016 (13.8% CAGR).
Mobile video will be the fastest growing consumer
mobile service from 2011 to 2016. (42.9% CAGR).
Desktop video conferencing will be the fastest growingservice across all business service categories (mobile &fixed) from 2011 to 2016 (43.2% CAGR).
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016
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In 2011, the average Internet user generated 12 GB/mo;by 2016, the average Internet user will generate 30 GB/mo.
By 2016, more than one-third of total IP traffic will comefrom devices other than PCs.
By 2016, wi-fi will account for nearly half of all IP traffic.
By 2016, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever madewill cross global IP networks every 3 minutes.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016