Driving the FUTURE OFPERSONAL TRANSPORTATION

Dr. J. Gary SmythExecutive Director

North America Research Labs

GM Research & Development

University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute

“Focus on the Future” Automotive Research Conferences

“Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: Looking Beyond 2016”

July 14, 2010

New U.S. Fuel Economy Standard

Final Rules (2012-2016 MODEL YEARS):

• Harmonizes National Greenhouse Gas Program (EPA responsibility) and Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards (NHTSA responsibility)

• Requires a US fleet average fuel economy of 35.5 mpg (250 g CO2 per mile) by 2016 model year

• Benefits consumers by getting cleaner, more efficient vehicles on the road quicker and more affordably

• Benefits the environment through reduced CO2 emissions

• Benefits the auto industry by having more consistency and certainty to guide our product and technology plans

GM is fully committed to the new EPA Green House Gas rules to improve vehicle fuel economy and lower emissions

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CO

MB

INED

FLE

ET A

VER

AG

E "E

FFEC

TIV

E" F

UEL

EC

ON

OM

Y (M

PG

)

MODEL YEAR

U.S. EFFECTIVE CAFE

Current Regulations

35.5

Global Energy Consumption to 2030 -The

projections in 2006

Oil

2006: 85MBD

1,000 barrels/second !

2030: 120 MBD projected

50% used for

transportation

Transportation is 96%

dependent on petroleum

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

World E

nerg

y C

onsum

ption (

MB

DO

E)

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

Transportation

Source: DOE-EIA 2006

Global Energy Consumption to 2030 -The

projections in 2006

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Wo

rld

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MB

DO

E)

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

Transportation

Source: DOE-EIA 2006

2008 Update (IEA)

2008: 86MBD

2030: 106MBD

projected

World Oil Demand at Different Oil Intensities

Oil Intensity Barrels/Person/Year

Global Oil Demand at this Oil Intensity

Million Barrels Per Day (MBD)

In 2010 In 2020 In 2030

25.2 (US 2007) 455 524 572

E

con

om

ic

De

velo

pm

en

t

14.3 (Japan 2007) 259 300 325

10 181 210 227

6 109 125 136

4.76 (World 2007) 86 99 108

Population Growth

Source: Historical data from IEA and US Bureau of the Census data

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027

MB

D

1% Demand Growth

0% Demand Growth

4% Decline Rate

7% Decline Rate

4%-7% Production Decline

0%-1% Demand Growth

Required New Capacity

202030-50 MBD

203040-75 MBD

Significant new Capacity is Required to make

up for Declines in Existing Capacity!

“Needing 6 new

Saudi Arabias

by 2030”!

Source: IEA World Energy outlook, 2008

Impact of Urbanization

and Traffic Congestion

Over the next decades, all of the world’s population growth will be in urban areas, with Asia and Africa accounting for 90% of the growth

By 2030, urban areas are projected to account for 60% of the population and greater than 80% of the wealth

Implications for transportation systems:

● Personal vs. mass transportation

● Low-/zero-emission capability

● Growth of “Urban Vehicles”

Po

pu

lati

on

(b

illi

on

s)

World Total Population

World Urban Population

World Rural Population

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

8

6

4

2

0

Urban areas account

for 50 % of world’s

population, but

80% of the

world’s wealth

Source: UN

By2020:

-27 Mega Cities (>10M)

- 9 Hyper Cities (> 20M)

Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)

London’s population density profile

kilometers from city center

pe

op

le / s

qu

are

kilo

me

ter

Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)

New York’s population density profile

kilometers from city center

pe

op

le / s

qu

are

kilo

me

ter

kilometers from city center

pe

op

le / s

qu

are

kilo

me

ter

Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)

Shanghai’s population density profile

GM Strategy: Displace Petroleum

Through Energy Diversity & Efficiency

ENERGY OPTIONS

Advanced Propulsion Technology

Strategy

Homogeneous ChargeCompression Ignition

DownsizedBoosting

CylinderPressure Sensing

Fuel Injector

s

ECU

EGR TurboCylinder Pressure Sensor

Achieve the maximum fuel economy and the minimum emissions potential for a diverse range of application through synergistic integration of building block technologies

Electrification

Charge Boosting, Charge Dilution, Active Sensing, and Electrification will be the focus in the future

Advanced IC Engines

Gasoline Engine Technology Roadmap

Gasoline engines will use building block technologies

Numbers are estimates and not additive

Fu

el E

co

no

my I

mp

rove

me

nt

Alternative Fuels

Time

IntegratedHybrid ICE

Baseline

Dual Cam Phaser (OHC)AFM (OHV)

3-5%

Extended AFM

Stoichiometric SIDI

7-10%

SIDI DownsizeBoosted

5-9%

Lean + Neutral Idle

2-step Var. Valvetrain

Dual Cam Phaser (OHV)

12-18%

SIDI Boosted Hybrid (BAS)

10-15%

Stratified Charge

HCCI

Adv. Var. Valvetrain

Cooled EGRHigh CR Boosted

Hybrid (BAS)

BoostedHybrid (BAS)

Stratified Charge

BoostedHybrid (BAS)

HCCI

Electrification

Diesel Engines –Achieving the Lowest Emissions

CylinderPressure Sensing

Base EngineTechnologies

Advanced Boosting withSmall Displacement

LPTurbo

HPTurbo

• High PressureInjection

• LowerCompression Ratios

• Higher PeakCylinder Pressure

Diesel Particulate Filter

Porous Cell Wall

NOX AftertreatmentPCCI Combustion

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Eq

uiv

ale

nc

e R

ati

o (

f)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Temperature (K)

PCCI Combustion

Conventional Combustion

soot zone

NOX Zone

Oxidation Catalyst

Urea Injection

SCR Urea NOx Catalyst

Particulate Filter

Fuel Injectors

ECU

EGR TurboCylinder Pressure Sensor

Transmission Technology Roadmap

Building block technologies for automatic transmissions

Numbers are estimates and not additive

Fu

el E

co

no

my I

mp

rove

me

nt

Time

Baseline

Current Production6-speed AT

5%

Aggressive Shift/TCC

Thermal Management

Reduced Spin Loss

Low Viscosity ATF

Downsized Pump

5.5%

Neutral Idle

Controlled Lube

6.5%

Variable K-factor TC

Selectable OWC

10-12%

7-speed Dry DCT

Optimized Operating Points

Lower Loses and Improved Efficiency

Architecture Change

Trans Enablers for Start/Stop

GM Hybrid & Electric Vehicles

RWD

2-Mode

Hybrid

FWD

2-Mode

Hybrid

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 20092006

EREV

GM

Hybrid

GM-Allison

HybridGM/Allison Hybrid Bus

Tahoe/Yukon

Escalade

Silverado/Sierra

Saturn VUEGreen Line 2-Mode

Shanghai GM BuickLaCrosse Eco-Hybrid

Saturn AURA Green LineChevrolet Malibu Hybrid

Plug-in

Volt E-REV

Saturn VUE Green Line

GM Hybrid System

Stop/start

Boost assist

Opportunity charging

Deceleration fuel cutoff

Regenerative braking

Automatic transmission

10%-25% FE gain

Most Affordable

Aura Green Line

36-volt, 0.6 kW-HrNiMH Battery

PowerElectronics

5 kW electricmotor/generator

170 Hp 2.4L L4 Engine

VUE Green Line Chevrolet

Malibu Hybrid

Buick LaCrosse

Eco-Hybrid

2-Mode RWD Hybrid System

GMC Yukon 2-Mode Hybrid

2-Mode Transmission

Two 60 kWElectric Motors

300V, 1.8 kW-HrNiMH BatteryPower

ElectronicsSystem

Chevrolet Tahoe2-Mode Hybrid

332 hp / 367 lb-ft

6.0L V8 Engine

50% city fuel economyimprovement

City fuel economyequal to 4-cyl Camry

Tow up to 6,200 pounds

2-Mode FWD Hybrid System

2009 Saturn VUE Green Line

Up to 50% fuel economy improvement

Exceptional fuel economyand performance

Provide the basisfor PHEV capability

2-Mode Transmission

Two 55 kW Electric Motors

300V, 2.2 kW-HrNiMH Battery

Power ElectronicsSystem

260 Hp, 3.6L SIDI V6 Engine

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Biofuels Technology Roadmap

1st Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation2nd Generation“Gen 1.5”

Feedstock: Sugars, Starch Cellulose

Feedstock: Oil-seed / Waste Lipids Algae

CassavaSweet Sorghum

SugarcaneCorn

Sugarbeet, …

Fuels and Conversion Products

Designer bacteria convert CO2 directly to final fuel products

Ethanol

FAMEBiodiesel*

JatrophaCamellina

etc.

Ethanol

GrassesWood biomass

Cellulosic Waste

Biomass-to-Liquids (FT)

Designer energy

crops

Algae

Alcohols

Biocrudeto Refinery

Pyrolysisfinal fuels

Green hydro-

carbons

Bio-oil to Green Fuels

Alcohols

Hydro-treatedBiodiesel

SoybeansPalm oil

RapeseedTallow

Waste veg. oil

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GM is committed to the rapid commercialization of “The

Next Generation of Ethanol”

GM has announced strategic alliances with two leading

cellulosic ethanol start-ups, Coskata and Mascoma, that

cover the biothermal and biochemical spectrum in

advanced biofuel technology

Partnership is about accelerating putting next generation

of cellulosic ethanol on the market

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Coskata’s Leading Feedstock Flexible

Ethanol Process

3-Step Process is

efficient, affordable,

feedstock flexible:

1. Incoming material

is converted into a

synthesis gas by

gasification

2. The synthesis gas

is fermented to

ethanol using

bacteria

3. Ethanol is

separated and

recovered using

membrane

technology

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Coskata's Technology: Flexible and

Affordable Able to use multiple non-food based products around the globe

For example…

Will produce ethanol that will be competitive with gasoline, unsubsidized in the long term

Yields over 100 gal/dry ton biomass of fuel grade ethanol

Returns up to 7.7 times as much fossil energy as what is used to produce the fuel

Uses less than one gallon of fresh water per gallon of ethanol

Reduces green house gas emissions by up to 96%

Municipal andIndustrial WastesWood Waste Grasses/Energy Crops

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GM Sandia 90-Billion Gallon Biofuel

Deployment Study

DistributionConversionStorage and TransportFeedstock

Joint project conducted by GM and Sandia National Laboratories is the first true value-chain approach to future large-scale biofuels

Can Large-Scale Biofuels Provide a Real and Sustainable Solution to Reducing Petroleum Dependence?

1. What must happen to grow ethanol production to 90B gal by 2030?2. What is required for cellulosic ethanol to be cost competitive with gasoline?3. What are the associated greenhouse gas, energy, and water footprints?4. What risks could impact cellulosic ethanol’s production and competitiveness

goals and how can we mitigate these?

No land use change for residues

equals 2006 corn ethanol acreage

44 M acres cropland as pasture and idle cropland

40 M acres non-grazed forest land

2030 land use

Biomass for 90 billion gallons of ethanol can be produced largely without reducing current active cropland

SRWC: Short Rotation Woody Crop

ENERGY OPTIONS

GM EN-V CONCEPTS FOR 2010 WORLD EXPO IN SHANGHAI (“BETTER CITY, BETTER LIFE”)

ORDINARY DRIVERS5,000

MILES LOGGED

1,300,000

Diverse Customer NeedsHydrogen Fuel Cell Chevrolet Equinox – at Work

Customer Expectations: No Compromises

Production Intent DesignFuel Cell Propulsion System

PRODUCTION-INTENT FUEL CELL SYSTEM (FCS)

¶ Half the size, 220 pounds lighter, and uses ~third of the platinum in Equinox FCS

¶ Compared to internal combustion engine:

– Twice as efficient

– Promises equivalent durability, range(300 miles), and performance

– 60% fewer part numbers

– 90% fewer moving parts

– Similar refueling time (~3 minutes)

Hydrogen InfrastructureLos Angeles Example

$100-200 million H2 infrastructure investment opens 15 million driver market

10 stations ~25 miles apart on destination corridors San Diego

Palm Springs

Las Vegas

Santa Barbara

30-40 stations ~3.6 miles apart Los Angeles Metro Area

Regional H2 infrastructures can be achieved with 40-50 stations in metro areas & along major destination corridors

Examples - Hydrogen Infrastructure in Deployment

Germany beginning infrastructure installations (1,000 H2 stations), supporting Daimler’s 2013 & 2015 production fuel cell programs

Japan announced infrastructure & vehicle deployment plans (1,000 H2 stations & 2 Million vehicles by 2025)

Advanced Propulsion Technology Strategy

Thank You For Your Attention