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November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Commission ENERGY 2030
Preliminary Report
William D’haeseleer, Chair
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Establishment of Commission
CE2030 established by Royal Decree
of December 06, 2005published in MB/BS of December 19, 2005
Duration of activities 18 months;Final report due at the latest June 19, 2007
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Process Followed
Delivery of preliminary report mid November 2006
Review procedure with Review Panels
Revision of report
Then final report
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Process Followed
Delivery of preliminary report mid November 2007
Review procedure with Review Panels
Revision of report
Then final report
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Objectives
«To provide the scientific and economic analyses necessary to evaluate Belgium’s options with regard to the energy policy up to 2030»
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Objectives
«To provide the scientific and economic analyses necessary to evaluate Belgium’s options with
regard to the energy policy up to 2030»
…so as to assure an energy system that
- guarantees security of supply
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
LNG-TERMINAL
emission to grid
Reception LNG storage
Gas
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Reliable: Security of Supply Electricity
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Reliable; Security of Supply Electricity
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Reliable; Security of Supply Electricity
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Objectives
«To provide the scientific and economic analyses necessary to evaluate Belgium’s options with
regard to the energy policy up to 2030»
…so as to assure an energy system that
- guarantees security of supply
- is environmentally friendly
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Clean Energy
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
1973 2003
Source NASA
Climate Change / Melting Polar Cap
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Objectives
«To provide the scientific and economic analyses necessary to evaluate Belgium’s options with
regard to the energy policy up to 2030»
…so as to assure an energy system that
- guarantees security of supply
- is environmentally friendly
- at affordable cost for society
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Affordable Energy Provision
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Objectives
«To provide the scientific and economic analyses necessary to evaluate Belgium’s options with
regard to the energy policy up to 2030»
…so as to assure an energy system that
- guarantees security of supply
- is environmentally friendly
- at affordable cost for society
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Objectives
«To provide the scientific and economic analyses necessary to evaluate Belgium’s options with
regard to the energy policy up to 2030»
…so as to assure an energy system that
simultaneouslysimultaneously
- guarantees security of supply
- is environmentally friendly
- at affordable cost for society
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Commission ENERGY 2030
1. Permanent Panel
W. D’haeseleer (Chair)
P. Klees (Vice Chair)
J. De Ruyck
P. Tonon
J. Albrecht
JM Streydio
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Commission ENERGY 2030
2. Non-Permanent Support Members
L. Dufresne J-M Chevalier
R. Belmans P. Terzian
B. Leduc W. Eichhammer
S. Proost
J-P van Ypersele
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Commission ENERGY 2030
3. Advisory Member
F. Sonck
4. Ex-officio Observers
M.-P. Fauconnier (Min Econ Affairs; DG Energy)
H. Bogaert (Fed Planning Bureau)
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Commission ENERGY 2030
5. Secretariate
(Min Econ Affairs; DG Energy)
M. Deprez
H. Autrique
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Commission ENERGY 2030
6. Special Acknowledgement
(Fed Planning Bureau)
D. Gusbin
D. Devogelaer
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Review Process
External Review Panels
- Federal-Regional Consultation Cell (CONCERE/ENOVER)- Central Council for the Economy (CCE/CRB)- National Bank (NB/BN) & Ass Belgian Banks- Regulators (CREG, VREG, CWaPE, IGBE/BIM)- Fed Council Sust Develop (FRDO/CFDD)- Academy Council for Applied Science (BACAS)- DG TREN European Commission- International Energy Agency (IEA)
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Approach of the study
1. Context & Issue to be Addressed
2. Scenario Analysis
3. The Broader Belgian Picture
4. Conclusions & Recommendations
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Approach of the study
1. Context & Issue to be Addressed
1. Scope, Setting the Stage
2. Current Situation in Belgium
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Approach of the study
1. Context & Issue to be Addressed
1. Scope, Setting the Stage
2. Current Situation in Belgium
3. Challenges
4. Demand for Energy & Energy Services
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Approach of the study
2. Scenario Analysis
1. Definition of the Scenarios
2. Results of the Scenarios
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Approach of the study
3. The Broader Belgian Picture
1. Addl Aspects Beyond the Scenario Analysis1. Reality Check & Implementation Challenge
2. Belgian Liberalized Markets
3. Security of Supply
4. Post-Kyoto in Practice
5. Socio-Econ Consequences
6. Nuclear Phase Out & Nuclear Option
7. Energy Efficiency & Nuclear Power
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Approach of the study
4. Conclusions & Recommendations
1. Conclusions
2. Comparison Climate Study (Min. Tobback)
3. Recomendations
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Practical Implementation (Part 1)
Scenarios to be performed & analyzed by Federal Planning Bureau(follow up of earlier scenario studies with Model PRIMES)
Definition of scenarios (objectives, boundary conditions, hypotheses, technical and economic input, etc) jointly established by permanent members of CE2030 & FPB
Contributions by non-permanent members in area of their specific expertise
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Practical Implementation (Part 2)
Evaluation, interpretation and validation of scenario results by FPB and CE2030
Post scenario interpretative analysis by CE2030
Preliminary Report issued by permanent members
CE2030
Major Supporting Document by FPB
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Important Remark
Study focuses on longer term: 2030
Global legal tendency taken into account (EU directives etc)
No detailed analysis of current legal & regulatory intricacies
But perceived shortcomings pointed out
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario
Same baseline as
- DG TREN
- Climate study (Min Tobback) – but till 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario
Same baseline as
- DG TREN
- Climate study (Min Tobback) – but till 2030
Current measures implemented
• No-post Kyoto imposed
• Nuclear phase out implemented
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario Fuel prices
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
$05/
boe
Oil-baseline Gas-baseline Coal-baseline
Oil-ref PP95 Gas-ref PP95 Coal-ref PP95
Gas-HGP sc PP95
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario – soaring variant
Apr. 2006 E3mlab - NTUA 22
Oil-Soaring
Oil-Base
Gas-Medium
Gas-Soaring
Gas-Base
Coal-Soaring
Coal-Base
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
$ o
f 2005 p
er
barr
el of oil e
quiv
ale
nt
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario – GDP evolution
Gross Domestic Product
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
GD
P [
G€'
00]
GDP in [G€ '00]
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
Final Energy Demand; Total & per Sector
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
FE
D [
kto
e/a]
FED total
FED_industry
FED_residential
FED_tertiary
FED_transport
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
Final Energy Demand per Sector
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
FE
D [
kto
e/a] FED_industry
FED_residential
FED_tertiary
FED_transport
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
Baseline Average Annual Grow th Rate Final Energy Demand
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
1 2 3 4
Decade
Ave
rag
e g
row
th [
%]
1: 1990-2000 2: 2000-2010 3: 2010-2020 4: 2020-2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario – FED (recall)
Final Energy Demand
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
FE
D [
kto
e]
Final Energy Demand [ktoe]
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario – FED Intensity
FED/GDP
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
FE
D/G
DP
[to
e/M
EU
R'0
0]
FED/GDP [toe/MEUR'00]
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario – Prim En Consumption
Primary Energy Consumption
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
PE
C [
kto
e]
PEC [ktoe]
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario – Prim En Intensity
Primary Energy Intensity
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
PE
C/G
DP
[to
e/M
EU
R'0
0]
PEC/GDP [toe/M€'00]
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario – Demand Combi Plot
Combined data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
GDP [G€ '00]
PEC [Mtoe]
PEC/GDP [toe/M€ '00]
FED [Mtoe]
FED/GDP [toe/M€ '00]
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
Installed Generation Capacity
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Inst
alle
d P
ow
er [
MW
e] Total install Cap
Nuclear
Gas
CHP
Coal
Wind
Bio & Waste
Oil
Solar PV
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
Installed Generation Capacity
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Inst
alle
d P
ow
er [
MW
e] Nuclear
Gas
CHP
Coal
Wind
Bio & Waste
Oil
Solar PV
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
Electric Energy Generated
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Ele
ctri
city
Gen
erat
ion
[G
Wh
]
Total Generated
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Bio & Waste
Wind
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
Electric Energy Generated
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Ele
ctri
city
Gen
erat
ion
[G
Wh
]
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Bio & Waste
Wind
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
Energy-related CO2 emissions
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
CO
2 em
issi
on
[M
ton
/a] CO2 emissions total
Electr sector
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
Energy branch
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
Energy-related CO2 emissions
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
CO
2 em
issi
on
[M
ton
/a]
Electr sector
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
Energy branch
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
supply side industry and buildings transport total
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario Soaring Variant Results
Baseline vs Soaring Price GIC & FED Comparison
33000
38000
43000
48000
53000
58000
63000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
GIC
&
F
ED
[k
toe/
a]
GIC_tot BL
FED_tot BL
GIC_tot Soar BL
FED_tot Soar BL
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Baseline Scenario Soaring Variant Results
Soaring Prices
Average Annual Growth Rate Final Energy Demand
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
1 2 3 4
Decade
Ave
rag
e g
row
th [
%]
Baseline Soaring Prices
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios
Eight scenarios
• All same GDP evolution as Baseline
Demand for energy services adjusted according to price elasticity
• All same fuel-price evolution as Baseline
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios
Eight scenarios
• -15% and -30% domestic reduction of energy-related CO2 in 2030 wrt 1990
• Each time with nuclear phase out on-off
• Each time with CCS and without
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
Carbon value Post-Kyoto -15%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 2 3 4
Scenarios -15%
CO
2 va
lue
[E
UR
/to
n C
O2]
no nuc; w ith CCS
nuc allow ed; w ith CCS
no nuc; no CCS
nuc allow ed; no CCS
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
Carbon value Post-Kyoto -30%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
5 6 7 8
Scenarios -30%
CO
2 va
lue
[E
UR
/to
n C
O2]
no nuc; w ith CCS
nuc allow ed; w ith CCS
no nuc; no CCS
nuc allow ed; no CCS
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
-15% Scenarios
Average Annual Growth Rate Final Energy Demand
-2-1,6-1,2-0,8-0,4
00,40,81,21,6
2
1 2 3 4
Decade
Ave
rag
e g
row
th [
%]
Baseline -15%; no nuc; w ith CCS -15%; w ith nuc; w ith CCS
-15%; no nuc; no CCS -15%; w ith nuc; no CCS
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
-30% Scenarios
Average Annual Growth Rate Final Energy Demand
-3,6-3,2-2,8-2,4
-2-1,6-1,2-0,8-0,4
00,40,81,21,6
2
1 2 3 4
Decade
Ave
rag
e g
row
th [
%]
Baseline -30%; no nuc; w ith CCS -30%; w ith nuc; w ith CCS
-30%; no nuc; no CCS -30%; w ith nuc; no CCS
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Beyond the Scenarios
Growth Rate & Market Diffusion
- Wind 13% p.a. ; PV 25% p.a.
shows that wind OK up to 5850 MW
- But PV limited to 530 MW
Extension of networks
- For HV if off shore > 1000 MW ~ 200-300 M€
or 2 G€ (cables)
- For distribution grid adaptation ~ 2 G€ over 10 yr
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Beyond the Scenarios
Security of supply; see table
- Import dependency on scale ~ 1-2 yr
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Alternative Scenarios -- Results
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Beyond the Scenarios
Major gas reserves
05
10
152025303540
455055
USA
Venez
Kazah
Nethe
rl
Norway
Russia
Turkm
en UKIra
nIra
q
Qua
tar
Saud
Arab
UAE
Alger
ia
Niger
ia
China
Indo
nesia
Mal
aysia
Country
Gas
vo
lum
e [t
rill
ion
m3 o
r 10
9 m3]
Largest reserves
European
Other
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Beyond the Scenarios
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Reliable; Security of Supply GasUkraineUkraine
01.01.0601.01.06
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Beyond the Scenarios
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Beyond the Scenarios
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Beyond the Scenarios
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Beyond the Scenarios
How about non-CO2 GHG, Flexible Mechanisms?
Simple estimate: “guestimate”- EU ~ 30% reduction GHG- B ~ 25% reduct GHG (bubble EU; burden sharing)- B ~ 20% reduction CO2
- B ~ 15% domestic reduction ener-related CO2
Likely -15% to …-20%...CO2 reduction in B to be expected
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Conclusions
- Reliable, clean & cheap energy provision daunting challenge !
- Belgium must fully subscribe to EU philosophy
- Baseline: nuclear replaced by coal CO2
- CCS very unlikely by 2030 (storage in B?)-15% to 30% reduction CO2 ; give substantial demand reductions & renewable energy expansion, but likely very expensive w/o nuclear
- Security of supply endangered diversity
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
General Recommendations
Belgium must keep a EU perspective; quick transposition of directives is called for
Need stable legislation & regulatory framework
Belgian energy responsibilities to be harmonized
Do not put all eggs in same basket; need diverse set of contributing elements
Belgium should prepare for a substantial post-Kyoto reduction (no ostrich attitude)
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Concrete Recommendations
Do all that is reasonable for reducing energy demand
…start with EU directives quickly
…go perhaps beyond
Pass on energy prices to consumers
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Concrete Recommendations
Should keep the nuclear option open:
…use Borssele scenario; reinject in DSM & renew; amount to be negotiated
… continued operation under strict safety rules
(regulators, IAEA, EURATOM, WANO…)
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Concrete Recommendations
Renewable obligation (quota) best on supply; local production to be carefully considered via penalties
Off shore wind to be pursued
… reconsider earlier rejected sites
… develop far off-shore sites meticulously
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Concrete Recommendations
Make commitment for one CCS pilot plant no later than 2030
Security of supply
… diversity of prim sources & technologies
… stable investment climate
… transmission & distribution networks
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Concrete Recommendations
Liberalization of electricity & gas…stable regulatory framework…one wholesale NW-EUR region with sufficient cross border capacity; efficient & strict regulatory supervision…retail market access to be developed over time…vertical unbundling needed (grids outside, at least legally)…guarantee for B: golden share in Suez/GdF?
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Concrete Recommendations
Research & development
…do preferentially in a EU framework
…R&D for energy efficiency
…off shore wind development
…systems integration
…one CCS plant by 2030
…nuclear-energy systems development
…energy-system model development
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Concrete Recommendations
Sustained Strategic Watching Brief
…permanent follow up of recommendations
…supervised by independent core group
…statistics to be improved
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Information
As of 16.00h Friday Nov 17, 2006,Available on web site:
http://www.ce2030.be - Executive Summary (C & R)- Preliminary report- Extra comments & reflections non-permanent
members- Supporting documents:
- Contributions members- Report FPB
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Conclusion
Please do not judge based on emotion or sentiment!
Study the report carefully in all its aspects:Security of supply (LT & ST)Clean energy provision (climate & other)At reasonable prices and cost
We wish to be judged based on facts & figures;Then draw conclusions and define policy!
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Alleged
Electricity Generation Capacity
by 2015
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Actually irrelevant for PRIMES simulations;
PRIMES invests whenever there is a need.
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Capacity replacement DL 1&2 and TH 1
Evolution of net annual import:- 2000 4.3 TWh/a- 2001 9.1 TWh/a- 2002 7.6 TWh/a- 2003 6.4 TWh/a- 2004 7.8 TWh/a- 2005 6.2 TWh/a
currently about 7% to 8% of demand is imported
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Capacity replacement DL 1&2 and TH 1
Evolution of net annual import:- 2000 4.3 TWh/a- 2001 9.1 TWh/a- 2002 7.6 TWh/a- 2003 6.4 TWh/a- 2004 7.8 TWh/a- 2005 6.2 TWh/a
currently about 7% to 8% of demand is importedFrom FRANCE = nuclear power !
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Capacity replacement DL 1&2 & TH 1~ 1800 MW ‘always’ available / ~ 14.5 TWh
- Need to distinguish between electrical power and electrical energy
MW MWh
- Acceptable capacity must be controllable for peak coverage!
- Fluctuating sources are not firm capacity- CHP is heat driven; is often not firm
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Capacity replacement DL 1&2 & TH 1
- BASF: N/A; already taken up by demand- INEOS: not yet active / is CHP but baseload; OK- Amercoeur: partial replacement only, and not at
8000 h/a - Sidmar: minor impact; effectively replaces
Rodenhuize 2 & 3 (en deels 4)-T power: Tess Chemie part of Blue Sky and ‘to be
seen’ because high gas prices- Stora: 60 MW effectively small
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Capacity replacement DL 1&2 & TH 1
- C power: fluctuating and realization to be seen
6 x 5 MW; 18 x 5 MW; 36 x 5 MW (?)
- Nuon / Vleemo: 90 MW wind problems with permits; is not controllable capacity
- SPE/Ecopower :30 MW wind; uncontrollable
- Groenkracht: 12 MW biomass: CHP and very small
- Aspiravi: 20 MW biomass: CHP and small
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Capacity replacement DL 1&2 & TH 1
- Estimate GP ~ 14.5 TWh
- Own estimate ~ 6 to 8 TWh
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Capacity replacement DL 1&2 & TH 1
Furthermore:
- Assumed operation time gas-fired plants of 8000h quasi impossible because high gas prices
- Extra CO2 emissions for replacement nuclear not taken into account
- Closure of older (coal plants) by 2015 not taken into account
- And what if electricity demands keeps increasing?
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Cost of Nuclear Fuel
for
Electricity Generation
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Price Nuclear Fuel (SNT – G. Pauluis)
- Price nuclear fuel cycle ~ 15% of electricity cost
- Price of nuclear raw material U3O8 ~ 15% of nuclear fuel cycle cost
• 50% - 50% upstream / downstream
• ~ 1/4 to 1/3 of upstream is fuel element manufacturing
• of other 70% ; 40% is for resource (other conversion UF6 & enrichment)
raw material cost is only ~ 0.5 x 0.7 x 0.4
≈ 14 % of fuel cycle cost
► Cost nuclear raw material ~ 0.15 x 0.14 ~ 2 % electricity cost
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Price Nuclear Fuel (IAEA June 01 2006)
- Price nuclear fuel ~ 15% of electricity cost
- Price of nuclear raw material U3O8 ~ 33% of nuclear fuel element cost
► Cost nuclear raw material ~ 0.15 x 0.33 ~ 5 % electricity cost
w/o taking into account waste management cost
Assume 50% - 50% upstream / downstream fuel cycle cost
► Cost nuclear raw material ~ 0.05 x 0.5 ~ 2.5 % electric cost
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Price Nuclear Fuel (IEA WEO 2006, Chapt 13)
- Price nuclear fuel ~ 7 - 14% of electricity cost
- Price of nuclear raw material U3O8 ~ 25% of total nuclear fuel cycle cost (with 75% - 25% upstream / downstream cost assumption)
► Cost nuclear raw material ~ 1.75% to 3.5 %
of electric cost
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Price Nuclear Fuel -Order of Magnitude Summary-
Cost of nuclear raw material U3O8
~ a few percent of electricity cost;
~ anyway less than 5% of nuclear-generated electricity cost
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Current annual consumption ~ 70 kton p.a. ► 40 y …80y…160 y
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Cost after Recycling
of CO2 Revenues
for Reduction of Labor Charges
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Recycling of revenues to lower labor charges only applies when revenues are effectively collected:
CO2 taxes imposed and collected;
CO2 allowances auctioned
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) vs Marginal Damage Cost (MD)
Report Pg 66 – Fig. 3.1
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Equi-marginal abatement cost
Report Pg 67 – Fig. 3.2
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
PRIMES cost
MAC as projected by PRIMES
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
PRIMES cost cost economy with labor taxes
MAC as projected by PRIMES
MAC when labor taxes present in rest of economy
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
MAC as projected by PRIMES
MAC when labor taxes present
MAC after recycling via lower labor taxes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
cost economy after recycling PRIMES cost
cost economy with labor taxes
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
cost economy after recycling PRIMES cost
cost economy with labor taxes Reduction quotum
MAC as projected by PRIMES
MAC when labor taxes present
MAC after recycling via lower labor taxes
MAC with fixed reduction target
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
cost economy after recycling PRIMES cost
cost economy with labor taxes Reduction quotum
MAC as projected by PRIMES
MAC when taxes present
MAC after recycling
MAC with fixed reduction target
Cost PRIMES is NOT overestimate real costs!
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Cost of Nuclear Phase Out
even if
Making Use of Emission Trading
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
A
DO
B
E
MAC B
MAC EU
Emission reduction
€/ton X
C
F
G
yy
X+y
X-y
Additional information
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
A
DO
MAC B
Emission reduction
€/ton
Additional information
yy
X+y
X-y E
B
X
C
F
G
MAC EU
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
B C
D F
G
Oyy
Ez
H
K
X-y-z
M
X+y+z
z
J
L
MAC B - new
MAC B - old
MAC EU
Emission reduction
€/ton X
Additional information
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
MAC B - new
MAC B - old
MAC EU
Emission reduction
€/ton X
Red dominates green
Additional information
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Emissionreduction
OShare B - old
H
Share EU - oldO’
Share EU - new Share B - new
H’
MAC B - old€/ton B
MAC B - new
O’’
MAC EU€/ton EU
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Additional information
Comparison with
DLR –GP study
“Energy Revolution: a Sustainable Pathway to a Clean Energy Future for Belgium”
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Comparison DLR (Greenpeace) - CE2030 for primary energy in 2030
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
DLR bpk30 bpk30n bpk30s bpk30ns
Scenarios
Mto
e p
er a
nn
um
.
November 27 2006Commission ENERGY 2030
Comparison DLR (Greenpeace) - CE2030 for renewable electricity in 2030
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
DLR bpk30 bpk30n bpk30s bpk30ns
Scenarios
GW
he
pe
r a
nn
um
.
import
PV
wind
biomass
total domestic