Driving the FUTURE OFPERSONAL TRANSPORTATION
Dr. J. Gary SmythExecutive Director
North America Research Labs
GM Research & Development
University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute
“Focus on the Future” Automotive Research Conferences
“Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: Looking Beyond 2016”
July 14, 2010
New U.S. Fuel Economy Standard
Final Rules (2012-2016 MODEL YEARS):
• Harmonizes National Greenhouse Gas Program (EPA responsibility) and Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards (NHTSA responsibility)
• Requires a US fleet average fuel economy of 35.5 mpg (250 g CO2 per mile) by 2016 model year
• Benefits consumers by getting cleaner, more efficient vehicles on the road quicker and more affordably
• Benefits the environment through reduced CO2 emissions
• Benefits the auto industry by having more consistency and certainty to guide our product and technology plans
GM is fully committed to the new EPA Green House Gas rules to improve vehicle fuel economy and lower emissions
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CO
MB
INED
FLE
ET A
VER
AG
E "E
FFEC
TIV
E" F
UEL
EC
ON
OM
Y (M
PG
)
MODEL YEAR
U.S. EFFECTIVE CAFE
Current Regulations
35.5
Global Energy Consumption to 2030 -The
projections in 2006
Oil
2006: 85MBD
1,000 barrels/second !
2030: 120 MBD projected
50% used for
transportation
Transportation is 96%
dependent on petroleum
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
World E
nerg
y C
onsum
ption (
MB
DO
E)
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Transportation
Source: DOE-EIA 2006
Global Energy Consumption to 2030 -The
projections in 2006
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Wo
rld
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n (
MB
DO
E)
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Transportation
Source: DOE-EIA 2006
2008 Update (IEA)
2008: 86MBD
2030: 106MBD
projected
World Oil Demand at Different Oil Intensities
Oil Intensity Barrels/Person/Year
Global Oil Demand at this Oil Intensity
Million Barrels Per Day (MBD)
In 2010 In 2020 In 2030
25.2 (US 2007) 455 524 572
E
con
om
ic
De
velo
pm
en
t
14.3 (Japan 2007) 259 300 325
10 181 210 227
6 109 125 136
4.76 (World 2007) 86 99 108
Population Growth
Source: Historical data from IEA and US Bureau of the Census data
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027
MB
D
1% Demand Growth
0% Demand Growth
4% Decline Rate
7% Decline Rate
4%-7% Production Decline
0%-1% Demand Growth
Required New Capacity
202030-50 MBD
203040-75 MBD
Significant new Capacity is Required to make
up for Declines in Existing Capacity!
“Needing 6 new
Saudi Arabias
by 2030”!
Source: IEA World Energy outlook, 2008
Impact of Urbanization
and Traffic Congestion
Over the next decades, all of the world’s population growth will be in urban areas, with Asia and Africa accounting for 90% of the growth
By 2030, urban areas are projected to account for 60% of the population and greater than 80% of the wealth
Implications for transportation systems:
● Personal vs. mass transportation
● Low-/zero-emission capability
● Growth of “Urban Vehicles”
Po
pu
lati
on
(b
illi
on
s)
World Total Population
World Urban Population
World Rural Population
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
8
6
4
2
0
Urban areas account
for 50 % of world’s
population, but
80% of the
world’s wealth
Source: UN
By2020:
-27 Mega Cities (>10M)
- 9 Hyper Cities (> 20M)
Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)
London’s population density profile
kilometers from city center
pe
op
le / s
qu
are
kilo
me
ter
Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)
New York’s population density profile
kilometers from city center
pe
op
le / s
qu
are
kilo
me
ter
kilometers from city center
pe
op
le / s
qu
are
kilo
me
ter
Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)
Shanghai’s population density profile
GM Strategy: Displace Petroleum
Through Energy Diversity & Efficiency
ENERGY OPTIONS
Advanced Propulsion Technology
Strategy
Homogeneous ChargeCompression Ignition
DownsizedBoosting
CylinderPressure Sensing
Fuel Injector
s
ECU
EGR TurboCylinder Pressure Sensor
Achieve the maximum fuel economy and the minimum emissions potential for a diverse range of application through synergistic integration of building block technologies
Electrification
Charge Boosting, Charge Dilution, Active Sensing, and Electrification will be the focus in the future
Advanced IC Engines
Gasoline Engine Technology Roadmap
Gasoline engines will use building block technologies
Numbers are estimates and not additive
Fu
el E
co
no
my I
mp
rove
me
nt
Alternative Fuels
Time
IntegratedHybrid ICE
Baseline
Dual Cam Phaser (OHC)AFM (OHV)
3-5%
Extended AFM
Stoichiometric SIDI
7-10%
SIDI DownsizeBoosted
5-9%
Lean + Neutral Idle
2-step Var. Valvetrain
Dual Cam Phaser (OHV)
12-18%
SIDI Boosted Hybrid (BAS)
10-15%
Stratified Charge
HCCI
Adv. Var. Valvetrain
Cooled EGRHigh CR Boosted
Hybrid (BAS)
BoostedHybrid (BAS)
Stratified Charge
BoostedHybrid (BAS)
HCCI
Electrification
Diesel Engines –Achieving the Lowest Emissions
CylinderPressure Sensing
Base EngineTechnologies
Advanced Boosting withSmall Displacement
LPTurbo
HPTurbo
• High PressureInjection
• LowerCompression Ratios
• Higher PeakCylinder Pressure
Diesel Particulate Filter
Porous Cell Wall
NOX AftertreatmentPCCI Combustion
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Eq
uiv
ale
nc
e R
ati
o (
f)
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Temperature (K)
PCCI Combustion
Conventional Combustion
soot zone
NOX Zone
Oxidation Catalyst
Urea Injection
SCR Urea NOx Catalyst
Particulate Filter
Fuel Injectors
ECU
EGR TurboCylinder Pressure Sensor
Transmission Technology Roadmap
Building block technologies for automatic transmissions
Numbers are estimates and not additive
Fu
el E
co
no
my I
mp
rove
me
nt
Time
Baseline
Current Production6-speed AT
5%
Aggressive Shift/TCC
Thermal Management
Reduced Spin Loss
Low Viscosity ATF
Downsized Pump
5.5%
Neutral Idle
Controlled Lube
6.5%
Variable K-factor TC
Selectable OWC
10-12%
7-speed Dry DCT
Optimized Operating Points
Lower Loses and Improved Efficiency
Architecture Change
Trans Enablers for Start/Stop
GM Hybrid & Electric Vehicles
RWD
2-Mode
Hybrid
FWD
2-Mode
Hybrid
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 20092006
EREV
GM
Hybrid
GM-Allison
HybridGM/Allison Hybrid Bus
Tahoe/Yukon
Escalade
Silverado/Sierra
Saturn VUEGreen Line 2-Mode
Shanghai GM BuickLaCrosse Eco-Hybrid
Saturn AURA Green LineChevrolet Malibu Hybrid
Plug-in
Volt E-REV
Saturn VUE Green Line
GM Hybrid System
Stop/start
Boost assist
Opportunity charging
Deceleration fuel cutoff
Regenerative braking
Automatic transmission
10%-25% FE gain
Most Affordable
Aura Green Line
36-volt, 0.6 kW-HrNiMH Battery
PowerElectronics
5 kW electricmotor/generator
170 Hp 2.4L L4 Engine
VUE Green Line Chevrolet
Malibu Hybrid
Buick LaCrosse
Eco-Hybrid
2-Mode RWD Hybrid System
GMC Yukon 2-Mode Hybrid
2-Mode Transmission
Two 60 kWElectric Motors
300V, 1.8 kW-HrNiMH BatteryPower
ElectronicsSystem
Chevrolet Tahoe2-Mode Hybrid
332 hp / 367 lb-ft
6.0L V8 Engine
50% city fuel economyimprovement
City fuel economyequal to 4-cyl Camry
Tow up to 6,200 pounds
2-Mode FWD Hybrid System
2009 Saturn VUE Green Line
Up to 50% fuel economy improvement
Exceptional fuel economyand performance
Provide the basisfor PHEV capability
2-Mode Transmission
Two 55 kW Electric Motors
300V, 2.2 kW-HrNiMH Battery
Power ElectronicsSystem
260 Hp, 3.6L SIDI V6 Engine
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Biofuels Technology Roadmap
1st Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation2nd Generation“Gen 1.5”
Feedstock: Sugars, Starch Cellulose
Feedstock: Oil-seed / Waste Lipids Algae
CassavaSweet Sorghum
SugarcaneCorn
Sugarbeet, …
Fuels and Conversion Products
Designer bacteria convert CO2 directly to final fuel products
Ethanol
FAMEBiodiesel*
JatrophaCamellina
etc.
Ethanol
GrassesWood biomass
Cellulosic Waste
Biomass-to-Liquids (FT)
Designer energy
crops
Algae
Alcohols
Biocrudeto Refinery
Pyrolysisfinal fuels
Green hydro-
carbons
Bio-oil to Green Fuels
Alcohols
Hydro-treatedBiodiesel
SoybeansPalm oil
RapeseedTallow
Waste veg. oil
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GM is committed to the rapid commercialization of “The
Next Generation of Ethanol”
GM has announced strategic alliances with two leading
cellulosic ethanol start-ups, Coskata and Mascoma, that
cover the biothermal and biochemical spectrum in
advanced biofuel technology
Partnership is about accelerating putting next generation
of cellulosic ethanol on the market
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Coskata’s Leading Feedstock Flexible
Ethanol Process
3-Step Process is
efficient, affordable,
feedstock flexible:
1. Incoming material
is converted into a
synthesis gas by
gasification
2. The synthesis gas
is fermented to
ethanol using
bacteria
3. Ethanol is
separated and
recovered using
membrane
technology
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Coskata's Technology: Flexible and
Affordable Able to use multiple non-food based products around the globe
For example…
Will produce ethanol that will be competitive with gasoline, unsubsidized in the long term
Yields over 100 gal/dry ton biomass of fuel grade ethanol
Returns up to 7.7 times as much fossil energy as what is used to produce the fuel
Uses less than one gallon of fresh water per gallon of ethanol
Reduces green house gas emissions by up to 96%
Municipal andIndustrial WastesWood Waste Grasses/Energy Crops
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GM Sandia 90-Billion Gallon Biofuel
Deployment Study
DistributionConversionStorage and TransportFeedstock
Joint project conducted by GM and Sandia National Laboratories is the first true value-chain approach to future large-scale biofuels
Can Large-Scale Biofuels Provide a Real and Sustainable Solution to Reducing Petroleum Dependence?
1. What must happen to grow ethanol production to 90B gal by 2030?2. What is required for cellulosic ethanol to be cost competitive with gasoline?3. What are the associated greenhouse gas, energy, and water footprints?4. What risks could impact cellulosic ethanol’s production and competitiveness
goals and how can we mitigate these?
No land use change for residues
equals 2006 corn ethanol acreage
44 M acres cropland as pasture and idle cropland
40 M acres non-grazed forest land
2030 land use
Biomass for 90 billion gallons of ethanol can be produced largely without reducing current active cropland
SRWC: Short Rotation Woody Crop
ENERGY OPTIONS
GM EN-V CONCEPTS FOR 2010 WORLD EXPO IN SHANGHAI (“BETTER CITY, BETTER LIFE”)
ORDINARY DRIVERS5,000
MILES LOGGED
1,300,000
Diverse Customer NeedsHydrogen Fuel Cell Chevrolet Equinox – at Work
Customer Expectations: No Compromises
Production Intent DesignFuel Cell Propulsion System
PRODUCTION-INTENT FUEL CELL SYSTEM (FCS)
¶ Half the size, 220 pounds lighter, and uses ~third of the platinum in Equinox FCS
¶ Compared to internal combustion engine:
– Twice as efficient
– Promises equivalent durability, range(300 miles), and performance
– 60% fewer part numbers
– 90% fewer moving parts
– Similar refueling time (~3 minutes)
Hydrogen InfrastructureLos Angeles Example
$100-200 million H2 infrastructure investment opens 15 million driver market
10 stations ~25 miles apart on destination corridors San Diego
Palm Springs
Las Vegas
Santa Barbara
30-40 stations ~3.6 miles apart Los Angeles Metro Area
Regional H2 infrastructures can be achieved with 40-50 stations in metro areas & along major destination corridors
Examples - Hydrogen Infrastructure in Deployment
Germany beginning infrastructure installations (1,000 H2 stations), supporting Daimler’s 2013 & 2015 production fuel cell programs
Japan announced infrastructure & vehicle deployment plans (1,000 H2 stations & 2 Million vehicles by 2025)
Advanced Propulsion Technology Strategy
Thank You For Your Attention