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Chapter 6 風險、報酬與投資組合. 學習重點. 理解各種報酬率之計算及功能組合暨機會成本的評估 探討風險溢酬之概念及分析報酬變異數、標準差及其風險組成因子 分析多角化經營對公司風險及報酬的影響 介紹投資組合風險衡量方式 探討效率投資組合並尋找最佳投資集合 定義 β 值並運用資本資產定價模型計算資金機會成本. 總報酬率. 投資股票或債券的報酬主要來自於兩個部分: 股票股利或債券利息 股利收益率 (Dividend Yield) 資本利得或資本損失 資本利得率 (Capital Gain Rate) 總報酬率 = 資本利得率 + 股利收益率: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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*Chapter 6
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(Dividend Yield)(Capital Gain Rate)=+
*
TEg.33%18%-10%13 (1+0.33)(1+0.18)(1-0.10)1.41 41%3*
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(Risk-Free Return) (Excess Return)(Risk Premium) + *
19262004
8.45%(12.32%3.87%) CRSP and Global Financial Data*
12.32%8.45%20.36%6.52%2.65%7.17%3.87%3.18%3.20%4.50%
E.g.5%8.45% 5%8.45%13.45% *
(Variance)(Standard Deviation)
Var SD
T
*
1999-2003
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199920002001200220032.5%20.7%32.5%8.6%14.3%
(Diversification) 200120088
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23.5%29.6%27.5%32.9%30.4%25.2%65.6%65.7%41.7%
*
(Unsystematic, Unique, Firm-Specific Risk)(Systematic, Market Risk)*
(Covariance)(Correlation Coefficient)
tA A *
0 0 +1-1 > 0< 0= 0 *
AB()
AB *
-10%-20%(=-10%-10%)10%5.67%(=10%-4.33%)-1.134%10%0%8%3.67%0%30%20%-5%-9.33%-1.866%10%4.33%-3%
AB
A A
*
AB25%75%0.20.081AB-0.617
*
AB
*
A26%50%B6%25%
(100%0%)26%50%(80%20%)22%40.3%(60%40%)18%31.6%(40%60%)14%25%(20%80%)10%22.3%(0%100%)6%25%
*
MV MV
AB(Opportunity Set) AMV
*
BMV
*
(0, 1)(0.4, 0.6)(0.4, 0.6)14%B6% MVA(Efficient Frontier)(Efficient Set)MVB *
MVA *
(The Optimal Portfolio)
T0%0 *
A40%20%30%T60%6%0%
A1,0006%200AA1,200Y
*
YZ3Z4Z *
III
II
I() *
IZ Z(Market Portfolio) (CML) *
K
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K15%30%15%20%-5%-10%-5%-20%
K
20%[=15%-(-5%)]K40%[=25%-(-15%)]K2(=40%/20%)
*
K15%25%=(30%+20%)/2-5%-15%=(-10%-20%)/2
K K
K(Characteristic Line) 2K K2 *
i 1 *
(R ) ( )
*
(Capital Asset Pricing ModelCAPM) (1) (2) 0( ) 1
*
CAPM(SML)
*
(SML)(CML)XX SML(Efficient Portfolio)CMLE.g.A1.2B0.86%9%AB *
CAPM CAPM
E.g.A1.2B0.86%9%AB
*
CAPM
AA0.550%50%SMLAASML 50%150%BB *
CAPM CAPME.g.(IRR)16%6%9%0.9
IRR > 14.1% *