Bai mau phan tich chung khoan TRC-ĐOÀN THỊ HIỀN THƯƠNG-K074040627

8/9/2019 Bai mau phan tich chung khoan TRC-ON TH HIN THNG-K074040627

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THNG TIN CN

Tn cng ty: Cng ty c phn Cao Su Ty NinhTayNinhrubber Joint Stock Compaa ch: X Hip Thnh,huyn G Du,tnh Tyin thoi: 066-853606Website: http://www.taniruco.com

HOT NG KINH DOANH CHNH:Trng, khai thc, ch bin,gia cng v xut khsn xut cy cao su ging.

C CU C NGS hu nh nc: 60%S hu nc ngoi: 24.46%S hu khc: 15.54%


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TY

C phn ha: 22-11-2006nyinh Ngy nim yt: 24-7-2007

u cc loi m cao su th ,s ch,cao su thin nhin,


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BNG CN I K TON CNG TY CAO SU T

2008 2007 2006TNG TI SN 660,673 817,171 1,456,056

Ti sn ngn hn 209,649 387,146Tin v cc khon tng ng tin 150,077 299,675 315,744

Tin 136,963 315,744Cc khon tng ng tin

Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn 8,650 18,010 20,213u t ngn hn 18,010 20,213D phng gim gi u t ngn hn

Cc khon phi thu ngn hn 22,854 48,348 659,885Phi thu khch hng 34,149Tr trc cho ngi bn 3,371 4,782 2,173Phi thu ni b ngn hn 537Phi thu theo tin k hoch hp ng xy dng

Cc khon phi thu khc 11,727 9,417 629,653D phng phi thu ngn hn kh i

Hng tn kho 27,175 19,307 22,891Hng tn kho 28,395 19,307 22,891D phng gim gi hng tn kho

Ti sn ngn hn khc 894 1,805 14,929Chi ph tr trc ngn hn 4Thu v cc khon khc phi thu Nh nc 0 13,967Ti sn ngn hn khc 894 1,805

Ti sn di hn 451,024 422,393

Ti sn c nh 316,922 308,356 317,176Ti sn c nh hu hnhNguyn gi 421,480 416,863 415,681Ga tr hao mn lu k 165,054 150,377 131,936

Chi ph xy dng c bn d dang 60,497 41,869 33,430Cc khon u t ti chnh di hn 102,031 86,153 65,954

u t vo cng ty lin kt, lin doanh 1,350u t di hn khc 101,169

Ti sn di hn khc 32,070 35,517 39,264

TNG NGUN VN 660,673 817,171 1,456,056N phi tr 156,206 346,815 1,094,888N ngn hn 127,094

Vay v n ngn hn 12,389 13,315 14,795Phi tr ngi bn 1,300 1,660 1,776Ngi mua tr tin trc 12,911 6,572 8,920Thu v cc khon phi np Nh nc 6,571 2,235 4,323

1,033,662

299,67513,114

8,650

7,756 27,523

-1,220

959

430,026

256,426 266,487 283,746

86,153 65,954

D phng gim gi u t ti chnh di hn -487

306,433 1,042,296


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Phi tr ngi lao ng 82,163 75,519 75,338Chi ph phi tr 352 596 2,080Phi tr ni b 194,193 932,758Cc khon phi tr, phi np ngn hn khc 11,408 12,343 2,306

N di hn 29,112 40,382 52,592

Vay v n di hn 39,277D phng tr cp mt vic lm

Vn ch s hu 504,467 470,356 361,168Vn ch s hu 478,841 460,933

Vn u t ca ch s hu 300,000 300,000 300,000Cc qu 109,359 200

Qu u t pht trin 93,448Qu d phng ti chnh 15,912

Qu khc thuc vn ch s hu 200Li nhun sau thu cha phn phi 69,482 160,933

Ngun kinh ph v qu khc 25,626 9,423 60,968Qu khen thng phc li 25,626 9,211 60,863Ngun kinh ph 212 102Ngun kinh ph hnh thnh ti sn c nh 2

26,888 52,592

2,224 1,104

300,200


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NINH n v:1000,000 VN


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BO CO KT QU KINH DOANH n v:1002008 2007 2006

Tng doanh thu hot ng kinh doanh 491,894 464,327

Cc khon gim tr doanh thu 7Doanh thu thun 549,115 491,894 464,320Ga vn hng bn 324,100 270,652 244,946Khu hao 18,516 20,127 12,634Li nhun gp 206,499 201,115 175,303Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh 23,829 10,177 5,559Chi ph ti chnh 5,361 5,705 1,722

Trong : chi ph li vay 4,326 5,526 1,722Chi ph bn hng 6,434 6,439 3,778Chi ph qun l doanh nghip 25,907 22,525 20,316Li nhun thun t hot ng sn xut kinh doanh 192,627 176,622 186,483Thu nhp khc 17,031 12,288 7,949

Chi ph khc 11,437 11,464 2,062Li nhun khc 5,593 824 5,887Tng li nhun k ton trc thu 198,220 177,446 192,370Chi ph thu thu nhp doanh nghip 1 52,449Li nhun sau thu thu nhp doanh nghip 198,220 177,445 139,921

549,115


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0,000 VND


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BO CO LU CHUYN TIN T2008 2007 2006

LU CHUYN TIN T HOT NG KINH DOANH

Tin thu t bn hng,cung cp dch v v doanh thu khc 567,903 501,056 468,352Tin chi tr cho ngi bn hng v cung cp dch v -114,680 -65,927 -50,348Tin chi tr cho ngi lao ng -230,809 -185,178 -168,020Tin chi tr li vay -4,326 -5,526 -1,722Tin chi np thu thu nhp doanh nghip -404 -17 -72,371Tin thu khc t hot ng kinh doanh 1,378 1,173 3,448Tin chi cho cc hot ng kinh doanh -180,461 -200,924 -20,913

Trong :chi phi khu hao -18,516 -20,127 -12,634

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng kinh doanh 38,600 44,658LU CHUYN TIN T HOT NG DU T

Mua sm TSC -39,534 -23,004 -27,678

Tin thu t thanh l, bn TSC v cc ti sn di hn khc 15,652 11,115Tin chi cho vay, mua cc cng c n ca n v khc -15,000 -13,000 -20,390Tin thu hi cho vay, bn li cc cng c n ca n v khc 24,360 32,153Tin chi u t gp vn vo n v khc -16,950 -20,699 -39,650Tin thu li cho vay, c tc v li nhun c chia 2,189 2,229

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng u t -27,756 -28,196 -48,834LU CHUYN TIN T HOT NG TI CHNHTin vay ngn hn, di hn nhn c 98,000

-13,315 -14,795 -3,560C tc, li nhun tr cho ch s hu -148,393 -16,512

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng ti chnh -161,708 -31,307 94,440Lu chuyn tin thun trong k -150,864 204,031Tin v tng ng tin u k 315,744 112,828nh hng ca thay i t gi hi oi quy i ngoi t -1,115Tin v tng ng tin cui k 299,675 315,744

158,425

4,502

15,203

3,715

Tin chi tr n gc vay

-14,846299,6751,265 -1,223150,077


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BALANCE SHEET2008 2007 2006

ASSETS 660,673 817,171 1,456,056Cash & equivalents 150,077 299,675 315,744

Accounts receivable 22,854 48,348 659,885Inventories 27,175 19,307 22,891Other current assets 894 1,805 14,929Total current asset 201,000 369,135 1,013,449Fixed assets 316,922 308,356 317,176Financial investment 110,681 104,163 86,167Other long term assets 32,070 35,517 39,264Total long-term assets 459,673 448,036 442,607

LIABILITIES & EQUITY 660,673 817,171 1,456,056Accounts payable 1,300 1,660 1,776Notes payable 12,389 13,315 14,795Accruals 113,405 291,458 1,025,725Total CL 127,094 306,433 1,042,296 Long term debt 29,112 40,382 52,592Total debt 156,206 346,815 1,094,888Common stock(30 million shares) 300,000 300,000 300,000Retained earnings 69,482 160,933 0Funds 134,985 9,423 61,168Total equity 504,467 470,356 361,168

INPUT DATA SECTION 2008 2007 2006Year-end common stock price 24300 120000Year-end shares outstanfing (MILLION) 30 30Tax rate 25% 25% 25%Affter tax cost of capital 12% 12% 12%Principle expences 13,315 14,795 3,560


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COMMON SIZE2008 2007 2006

100.00% 100.00% 100.00%22.72% 36.67% 21.68%

3.46% 5.92% 45.32%4.11% 2.36% 1.57%0.14% 0.22% 1.03%

30.42% 45.17% 69.60%47.97% 37.73% 21.78%16.75% 12.75% 5.92%

4.85% 4.35% 2.70%69.58% 54.83% 30.40%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00%0.20% 0.20% 0.12%1.88% 1.63% 1.02%

17.17% 35.67% 70.45%19.24% 37.50% 71.58%

4.41% 4.94% 3.61%23.64% 42.44% 75.20%45.41% 36.71% 20.60%10.52% 19.69% 0.00%20.43% 1.15% 4.20%76.36% 57.56% 24.80%

Percentage debt/liabilities & debt decreasedfrom 2006 to 2008 and this rate in 2008 is23,64%,much lower than equity,which showsthis company used more equities to financeits operation,so it has less risk & can surport

capital for working activily.However,thedisadvantage of this is less turn forsharehorders.

Long term assets take big rate in total assets ofthis company in 2008(69,58%),among them fixedassets take bigest rate.It is expanding itsoperating,purchased more fixed assets.Thecompany'trend is incseasing long term assets &decseasing current assets.This maybe limitliqidity ability of it.


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INCOME STATEMENT

2008 2007 2006

Net sales 589,975 514,359 477,828COGS 324,100 270,652 244,946Operating cost except depreciation 44,813 40,607 26,156Earning before interest,taxes,depreciation(EBITDA) 221,062 203,100 206,726Depreciation 18,516 20,127 12,634Earning before interest &taxes(EBIT) 202,546 182,973 194,092Less interest 4,326 5,526 1,722Earning before taxes(EBT) 198,220 177,447 192,370Taxes 0 1 52449Net income 198,220 177,446 139,921Common divident 148,393 16,512 0Addition to retained earnings 49,827 160,934 139,921

PER- SHARE DATAEarnings per share(EPS) 6607.33 5914.87Dividends per share(DPS) 4946.43 550.4Book value per share(BVPS) 16815.57 15678.53Cash flow per share 7224.53 6585.77

PERCENT CHANGE INCOME STATEME2008 2007 2006

Net Sales 23.47% 7.65% 0.00%COGS 32.31% 10.49% 0.00%Operating cost except depereciation 71.33% 55.25% 0.00%

EBITDA 6.93% -1.75% 0.00%Depreciation 46.56% 59.31% 0.00%EBIT 4.36% -5.73% 0.00%Interest 151.22% 220.91% 0.00%EBT 3.04% -7.76% 0.00%Taxes -100.00% 0.00%Net income 41.67% 26.82% 0.00%


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COMMON SIZE

2008 2007 2006

100.00% 100.00% 100.00%54.93% 52.62% 51.26%7.60% 7.89% 5.47%

37.47% 39.49% 43.26%3.14% 3.91% 2.64%

34.33% 35.57% 40.62%0.73% 1.07% 0.36%

33.60% 34.50% 40.26%0.00% 0.00% 10.98%

33.60% 34.50% 29.28%

NT


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CASH FLOWS2008 2007 2006

NOWC 85,401 74,212 -28,981

TOC 402,323 382,568 288,195NOPAT 145,833 131,741 139,746OCF 164,349 151,868 152,380NCF 216,736 197,573 152,555FCF 113,626 25,671EVA 97,554 85,832 105,163MVA 429,000 3,300,000

The assessment of the expansion's effect on operation Percent change2008 2007 2006 2008 2007

Net sales 589,975 514,359 477,828 23.47% 7.65%NOPAT 145,833 131740.56 139746.24 4.36% -5.73%

NOWC 85,401 74,212 -28,981 15.08% 156.07%OCF 164,349 151,868 152,380 7.85% -0.34%TOC 402,323 382,568 288,195 39.60% 32.75%Net income 198,220 177,446 139,921 41.67% 26.82%

Comment:Compared with 2006,the TOC of this company increased by 39.6% as well asthe increasing of the net operating working capital(by15.08%).As the result,net income in2008 went up by 41.67% compared with 2006 whereas net sales increased by23.47%.This shows this company operated effectively & it got the positive effects throughenlarging operating.


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heet2006(base)

0.00%0.00%

0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%


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Ha Bnh NngCurent Ratios 2.4 1.4

Quick ratios 1.92 0.48Inventories turnover 10.94 4.58DSO 16.8 34.18FA turnover 3.71 7.28TA turnover 0.84 2.12Debt ratios 0.17 0.65TIE 3102.00 52.85Ebitda coverage 3409.00 52.22Profit margin 0.27 0.04BEP 0.23 0.04roa 23.0% 8.0%roe 27.0% 24.0%

roe dupont 27.0% 24.0%roic 36.0% 16.7%p/e 4.78 5.00m/b 1.31 1.21multiplier 1.2 2.84


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Thng Nht ng Ph Ty Ninh Ind.2.8 0.86 1.58 1.81

1.95 4.55 1.37 2.055.1 13.01 21.7 11.07

69.6 13 14.14 29.541.76 1.44 1.86 3.210.71 0.76 0.89 1.060.17 0.35 0.24 0.32

36.00 54.30 46.44 658.3236.00 0.63 20.80 703.73

0.04 0.22 0.34 0.180.03 0.23 0.31 0.17

3.0% 16.8% 30.0% 16.2%4.0% 25.8% 39.3% 24.0%

4.0% 38.0% 33.6% 25.3%4.0% 32.8% 36.2% 25.1%18.81 6.92 3.68 7.84

0.71 1.78 1.44 1.291.2 1.53 1.3 1.61


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LIQUIDITY RATIOS2008 2007 2006 Ind

Curent ratio 1.58 1.20 0.97 1.81Quick ratio 1.37 1.14 0.95 2.05

ASSET MANAGEMENT RATIOS2008 2007 2006 Ind

Inventories turnover ratios 21.71 30.56 25.77 11.07DSO 14.14 29.91 408.25 29.54FA Turnover ratio 1.86 1.91 1.86 3.21TO Turnover ratio 0.89 0.63 0.33 1.06

DEBT MANAGEMENT RATIOS2008 2007 2006 Ind

DEBT RATIO 0.24 0.42 0.75 0.32TIE 46.82 33.11 112.71 658.32EBITDA coverage 12.53 9.99 39.14 703.73

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

PROFIT RATIOS2008 2007 2006 Ind

Profit margin 0.34 0.34 0.29 0.18ROA 0.30 0.22 0.10 0.16BEP 0.31 0.22 0.13 0.17ROE 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.24ROIC 0.36 0.34 0.48 0.25

Comment:Expected to improve from 2006 to 2008 butstill below the industry avarage,so the liquidity positionof TRC is weak.

Comment:1.Inventory turnover is much higher than industry avarage of 11.076.This sgows thecompany is holding a reasonable amount of enventories.2.Days sales outstanding decreased tipically & much lower than industry average which suggestthat this company has a good credit policy,so it will not meet alot of difficulty in getingrecievables.In other words,some cases which TRC may never be able to collect the recievble willrarely occur.3.FA turnover slightly changed from 2006 to 2008 & below industry average.This company seemsto have about an unreasonable amount of fixed asset relative to its sales4.TO turnover incresed over 3 years but still below the industry average,indicating that companydidn't create enought sales given by total assets.

Comment:1.This company used lower leverage than equity to surport its operation,which means TRCcan be active about capital.On the other hand,stockholder may not like this.2.Note that TIE ratio in 2006 is very high although the company used more debt this year,whichmeans there are some interest cost delayed.We can see TIE has increasing trend from 2007 to2006,compared with some the other company in the same industry such as thong nhat...TIE ratio ofthe company is at average.It's the same with EBIDA coverage.


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2008 2007 2006 IndP/E 3.68 20.29 7.84P/CF 3.36 18.22M/B 1.45 7.65 1.29

Comment:Most of the profit ratios of this company increased alots from 2006 to 2008& are all higher than industry average.The high Profit margin is a result of its smalluse of debt and low costs.ROA,BEP,ROE are higher than some other company inthe same industry.Both ROA and ROE are higher than WACC =12%.These is verygood,shows that this company generated the right return being content with itsassets,so it acquired efficient operation.Looking good.

Comment:All of these ratios decreased deeply from 2007 to 2008because of the economic crisic in 2008.We expect these ratios willgo up in 2009 due to increasing again of stock market.


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ROE = Profit margin x Total assets turnover x2006 0.39 0.29 0.332007 0.38 0.34 0.632008 0.39 0.34 0.89

DuPont AnalysisSales 2008

589,975

Cost of GoodsSold Net Profits

324,100 After Taxes198,220 Net Profit

OperatingIncome Expenses 33.60%

Statement 44,813Sales

Interest 589,975Expense

4,326

Taxes0 Sales

589,975 Total AssetTurnover

0.89CurrentAssets201,000 Total Assets

660,673Long term

Assets Equity459,673 504,467

BalanceSheet Current

Liabilities127,094 Total

Liabilities Total LiabilitiesLong Term 156,206 & equity =

Debt Total assets29,112 660,673

Equity504,467


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$-


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Equity multiplier4.031.741.31

Return onTotal Assets

(ROA)30%

Return onEquity (ROE)

39.29%

FinancialLeverage

Multiplier (FLM)1.31


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Profit & operating cash flow 2008 2007 2006

Net sales 589,975 514,359 477,828

EBIT 202,546 182,973 194,092NI 198,220 177,446 139,921NOPAT 145,833 131,741 139,746TOC 402,323 382,568 288,195OCF 164,349 151,868 152,380FCF 113,626 25,671EVA 97,554 85,832 105,163

Ratios analystLiquidty ratiosCurent ratio 1.58 1.20 0.97Quick ratio 1.37 1.14 0.95Assets management ratiosInventories turnover ratios 30.56 25.77 11.07DSO 14.14 29.91 408.25FA Turnover ratio 1.86 1.91 1.86TO Turnover ratio 0.89 0.63 0.33Debt management ratiosDEBT RATIO 0.24 0.42 0.75

TIE 46.82 33.11 112.71EBITDA coverage 12.53 9.99 39.14Profit ratiosProfit margin 0.34 0.34 0.29ROA 0.30 0.22 0.10BEP 0.31 0.22 0.13ROE 0.39 0.38 0.39ROIC 0.36 0.34 0.48Market value ratiosP/E 3.68 20.29P/CF 3.36 18.22M/B 1.45 7.65

SUMMARIZE: This company operated more effectively in 2008.In 2007,most oincreased alots,which represents that TRC got a negative resuMost of these problems were improved in 2008,which shows thThis request the company have to change some strategy to im


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PERCENTAGE OF CHANGE2008 2007 2006 (Base)

23.5% 7.6% 0.0%

4.4% -5.7% 0.0%41.7% 26.8% 0.0%4.4% -5.7% 0.0%

39.6% 32.7% 0.0%7.9% -0.3% 0.0%

342.6% 0.0%-7.2% -18.4% 0.0%

2008 2007 2006

62.7% 23.9% 0.0%43.9% 20.1% 0.0%

176.1% 132.9% 0.0%-96.5% -92.7% 0.0%

0.1% 2.9% 0.0%172.1% 91.8% 0.0%

-68.6% -43.6% 0.0%

-58.5% -70.6% 0.0%-68.0% -74.5% 0.0%

14.7% 17.8% 0.0%212.2% 126.0% 0.0%130.0% 68.0% 0.0%

1.4% -2.6% 0.0%-25.2% -29.0% 0.0%

-81.9% 0.0%-81.5% 0.0%-81.1% 0.0%

f operating cashflows decreased whereas toatal operating capitallt on it enlarging capital.In addition,ROE & ROIC fall down deedly in this yeare good perfromance.However,TRC met problem in FA & TO management, and debt management.rove performance next year.

Sales increased by 23.5% whereas NI increpresents TRC operated effectively.In aoperating cash flows of this company inOCF,FCF go up in 2008,compared with 2good sign about the TRC's performance.falled down in 2007 and were improved a

for EVA.TOC increased strongly in three2008) whereas NOPAT went up just by 4.decreased during 3 years,indicating thateconomic value which is consitent withoperating capital.This make TRC's valuedecrease.Therefore,this company need tto improve this situaion.However,it's verFCF of TRC increased a lots,compared wmakes TRC more valuable.

Liquidty capacity of TRC was improved duringto TRC decreased a large number of acrruals,current liabilities decreased alots.

Most of these ratios were improved a lots frFA turnover ratio (just by 0.1% in 2008).Thiswas atemping to improve its assets manageratios continue to be improved in next year.

TRC use leverage more and more little,but

during three years.This is a bad sign aboutratios was improved in 2008,expected to in

Most of profit ratios increased in 2008 &good.Howevere,ROIC decreased in 2009,below the growth rate of TOC,that is theyears.TRC should change capital policyholding operating capital.

Because of being affected by changes indeedly in 2008 & expected to go up agai


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reased by 41.7%dition,most oflude NOPAT,06.This shows ahese figures alllots in 2008 except

years (by 39% in% in 2009,so EVATRC didn't createnlarging total

have some policyimportant that

ith 2007,which

three years duewhich makes

m 2006 to 2008 except forshows that this companyment,so we expect these

TIE & EBITDA coverage decreased very much

debt management capacity of TRC.However,thesecrease in future.

were all higher than WACC = 12%.It's so, compared with 2006.The growth rate of NOPAT wasreason made ROIC decreased during threeproduction activity to get more profit on total

economy,market value of TRC falled downwhen the economy recover.


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Financial Planning and Forecasting

The Sales Forecast

TRC'sales during 5 years:2004 235,5862005 340,9882006 477,8282007 514,3592008 589,975

2009 trend line forecast 737,469We have the growth rate of sales is 0.25=25%(we use logest function to caculate this rate)However,because of being affected by macrocopic economic condintion,the growth rate of sales of TRis forcasted is 22% ,so expected sales is 719,770.

USING AFN EQUATIONA* 660,673

589,975719,770

S 129,795 We assume that the key ratios in 2008 are mantained inL* 114,705M 33.60%RR 25.14%

AFN == 145,348 25,235 60,796

= 59,317

We find that TRC'additional funds needed equal 59,317 milliionso to increase sales by 129,795 million,this company must increase assets by 145,348million,where 25,235 million will come from increases in payables and accruals,Whileanother 60,796 million will come from retained earnings.The remaining 59,317 millionmust be raised from external sources.

As said before,this AFN equation assumes that the key ratios in 2008 are mantained in 20in this year economic condition varies and TRC must adjust some ratios about assets,holding cmanagement & sale policiesand some other changes.Therefore,we have following forcasted fi

FORESASTED FINANCIAL STATEMENWe can see the performance of this company are very good in last year.Sales increase rapiddly durAdditionaly,the figures of operating cash flows are all high,especially FCF is positive and increaseThis company operated efectively.However,this it seems holding an unreasonable amount of fixedThis made the FA turnover ratios & TO turnover ratio lower than industry average.And one more prliquidity capacity of the conpany is weak.Therefore it is very necessary to improve assets manageand liquidity capacity.

S0

S1

(A*/S0)S - (L*/S

0)S - MS

1(RR)


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PERCENT OF SALES

Actual ProjectedPercent of Sales Inputs 2008 2009

COGS/Sales 54.9% 50.0%Depr/sales 3.1% 2.5%Cash/Sales 25.4% 28.5%Accounts Rec./Sales 3.9% 3.9%Inv./Sales 4.6% 2.8%The other current assets 0.2% 0.2%Net Fixed Assets/Sales 53.7% 49.4%Financial investment 18.8% 16.0%The other long term assets 5.4% 5.4%Account payables/Sales 0.2% 0.2%Accruals/sales 19.2% 19.20%

KEY INPUT DATA: Raise AFN as follows:

22.00% Notes 50%15.00% LT debt 50%74.86%

Tax rate 25.00%Interest rate on debt 10.00%

Income Statements Actual 2009 Forecast2008 % of sales 1st Pass Adjustment

Sales 589,975 719,770

Costs except depr'n 368,913 % of sales=50% 359,885Depreciation 18,516 %of sales=2.9% 17,994Total operating costs 387,429 377,879EBIT 202,546 341,891Less Interest 4,326 4,326 1,344EBT 198,220 337,565Taxes (25%) 0 84,391Net income 198,220 253,173

Common dividends 148,393 189,526Addition to RE 49,827 63,648Retention Ratio 0.2514

Balance Sheets Actual 2009 Forecast2008 % of sales 1st Pass Adjustment

AssetsCash 150,077 % of sales=28.5% 205,134Accounts receivable 22,854 % of sales=3.9% 28,071Inventories 27,175 % of sales =2.7% 20,066

Sales Growth Rate, gs

Fixed assets growth rate,gfDividend common rate

prior*(1+gs)


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The other current assets 894 % of sales=0.2% 1,440Total current assets 201,000 254,711Financial Investment 110,681 % of sales=16% 115,163Net plant and equipment 316,922 % of sales=49.4% 355,710The other long term assets 32,070 % of sales=5.4% 38,868Total long term assets 459,673 509,741

Total assets 660,673 764,451

Liabilities and equityAccounts payable 1,300 % of sales=0.2% 1,440Notes payable 12,389 carried over 12,389 7,600Accruals 113,405 % of sales=19.2% 138,196Total current liabilities 127,094 152,024Long-term bonds 29,112 carried over 29,112 7,600Total debt 156,206 181,136Common stock 300,000 carried over 300,000Retained earnings 69,482 prior+add'n 133,130 63,394Funds 134,985 134,985

Total common equity 504,467 568,115Total liab. and equity 660,673 749,251

Additional funds needed (AFN) 15,200Cumulative AFN 15,200

Notes 50.00% 7,600LT Debt 50.00% 7,600

THE RESULTS OF FORECASTIncome Statements Actual 2009 Forecast:

2008 4th PassSales 589,975 719,770

Costs except depr'n 368,913 359,885Depreciation 18,516 17,994Total operating costs 387,429 377,879EBIT 202,546 341,891Less Interest 4,326 5,696EBT 198,220 336,195Taxes (25%) 0 84,049Net income 198,220 252,146

Common dividends 148,393 188,756Addition to RE 49,827 63,389

Balance Sheet Actual 2008 2009 Forecast:Assets 4th PassCash 150,077 205,134Accounts receivable 22,854 28,071Inventories 27,175 20,066Other current assets 894 1,440Total current assets 201,000 254,711Financial Investment 110,681 115,163


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Net plant and equipment 316,922 355,710Other long term assets 32,070 38,868Total long term assets 459,673 509,741Total assets 660,673 764,451

Liabilities and equity Accounts payable 1,300 1,440Notes payable 12,389 20,118Accruals 113,405 138,196

Total current liabilities 127,094 159,754Long-term bonds 29,112 36,841Total debt 156,206 196,595

Common stock 300,000 300,000Retained earnings 69,482 132,871Funds 134,985 134,985Total common equity 504,467 567,856

Total liab. and equity 660,673 764,451

KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS4th Pass Industry

2008 2009 AverageCurrent ratio 1.37 1.47 2.1Inventory Turnover 21.7 35.9 11.1Days sales outstanding 14.1 14.2 29.5Total assets turnover 0.89 0.94 1.1FA return ratio 1.86 2.02 3.2Debt ratio 23.6% 25.7% 31.5%Assets/Equity (multiplier) 1.31 1.35 1.61TIE 46.82 60.02 658.3

Operating costs/Sales 65.7% 52.5%Profit Margin 33.6% 35.0% 18.1%Return on Assets 30.0% 33.0% 16.2%Return on Equity 39.3% 44.4% 24.0%ROIC 36.2% 54.5% 25.1%BEP 30.7% 44.7% 16.7%EVA 97,554 199,924

Total Asset EquityProfit Margin Turnover Multiplier ROE

Du Pont ROE, 2008 = 33.60% 0.89 1.31 39.29%Du Pont ROE, 4th pass = 35.03% 0.94 1.35 44.40%Industry = 18.13% 1.06 1.61 25.32%

OPERATING CASH FLOW PERCENTA4th

2008 2009 2008

NOPAT 145,833 256,418 0.0%NOWC 85,401 115,075 0.0%TOC 402,323 470,785 0.0%


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EVA 97,554 199,924 0.0%OCF 164,349 274,412 0.0%NCF 216,736 270,140 0.0%Free Cash Flow 113,626 187,955 0.0%

SUMMARIZE: The target growth rate of sales in 2009 is 22%,which results in sales 7decreases inventories,buy a few assets, and changes the others.In addition,the companyto surport its growth.With some changes like that,hope that the firm will operates more e


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C

009 but the growth rate of sales

09,howeversh,price policy,nancial statement.

ing all past years.tronglyssets.blem,ent

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 tren

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

sales,2004 to 2005


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USING REGRESSION TO IMPROVE FINANCIAL FORECASTS

Year Sales Inv2004 235,586 27,1752005 340,988 19,3072006 477,828 22,8912007 514,359 16,4382008 589,975 25,5932009 719,770

Regression Prior Forecast Forecast Difference

Inventories 20,066 33,154 -13,088

Correlation -0.25R-Square 0.061

2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment 4th Pass719,770 719,770 719,770

359,885 359,885 359,88517,994 17,994 17,994

377,879 377,879 377,879341,891 341,891 341,891

5,670 25 5,695 0.5 5,696336,220 336,195 336,195

84,055 84,049 84,049252,165 252,146 252,146

188,771 188,757 188,75663,394 63,390 63,389

0.2514 0.2514 0.2514

2nd Pass Adjustment 3rd Pass Adjustment 4th Pass

205,134 205,134 205,13428,071 28,071 28,07120,066 20,066 20,066

The regression forecast fo

lower than prior forecash,that the inventories will grorate with sales growth.Hoto regression,the inventori19,703.This means changare affected by other factoin sales.


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1,440 1,440 1,440254,711 254,711 254,711115,163 115,163 115,163355,710 355,710 355,710

38,868 38,868 38,868509,741 509,741 509,741

764,451 764,451 764,451

1,440 1,440 1,440

19,989 127 20,116 2 20,118138,196 138,196 138,196159,624 159,751 159,754

36,712 127 36,839 2 36,841196,337 196,590 196,595300,000 300,000 300,000132,876 63,390 132,872 63,389 132,871134,985 134,985 134,985

567,861 567,857 567,856764,198 764,447 764,451

253 5 015,454 15,458 15,459

127 2 0127 2 0


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104.9%67.0%24.6%65.4%

9,770.To acquire this target sales,TRC have to cut cost,have to raise amount of external capital of 15,459 millionfectively & get more valuable.


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r inventories is

hich assumedw at the sameever,arcordings will bes in inventories

rs than changes


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