ACHIEVEMENTS FROM FP6/FP7 EC PROJECTS

KEY FINDINGS IN THE EARTHQUAKE AREA

Boumerdes 2003

San Giuliano di Puglia 2002

Athens 1999

Kocaeli 1999

L‘Aquila 2009

• Southern Europe, Western U.S. and Japan havesimilar level of earthquake hazard

• Relative vulnerability of European population is10 times higher than in Japan and 100 higherthan U.S.

Earthquake hazard cannot be reduced but relative vulnerability can.

One objective of Europe must be to decreasevulnerability to Japan or U.S. levels.

FP6 and FP7 PROJECTS IN THE EARTHQUAKE AREA

• 3HZ Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Landslides in the Corinth Rift, Greece

• SAFER Seismic Early Warning for Europe• LESSLOSS Risk Mitigation for Earthquakes and

Landslides• SHARE Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe• SYNER-G Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk

Analysis for Buildings, Lifeline Networks and Infrastructure Safety Gain

• SEAHELLARC Seismic and Tsunami Risk assessmentand mitigation scenarios for the western Hellenic arc

SHARE, 3HAZ

SEAHELLARC

SYNER-G

LESSLOSS

SHARE

SAFER

SAFER

LESSLOSS

hazard

vulnerability

Loss models

Risk models

Early warning systems

Shake maps

Building codes

Mitigation methods/policies

Physical

Socio-economic

Physical

Human

Societal-economic-cultural

E.C project Component of seismic risk chain

SHARE, 3HAZ

SEAHELLARC

SYNER-G

LESSLOSS

SHARE

SAFER

SAFER

LESSLOSS

hazard

vulnerability

Loss models

Risk models

Early warning systems

Shake maps

Building codes

Mitigation methods/policies

Physical

Socio-economic

Physical

Human

Societal-economic-cultural

E.C project Component of seismic risk chain

decades years days

Early Warning

Long-TermForecasting

Short-TermForecasting& Prediction

Long-termHazard mapping

ShakeMaps &Rapid Loss Assessment

0 days

Earthquake

seconds years

Aftershock Hazard

SHARE SHARE -- NERIES NERIES --CRLCRL SAFER SAFER -- NERIESNERIES

Faults ready to break, western Gulf of Corinth0 - 30 YearsExpected Earthquake Magnitudes 6 to 6.7Possibility of cascade events, within minutes to years

East Helike f.West Helike f.

Aigion f.Psathopyrgos f.

1861

rupture

1995

rupture

AIGION, 30,000 p.

PATRAS, 300 000 p.

?

N10 km

?

11

Koeripipe – Application to European sections of Istanbul

PGV values, calculated by 1D site response analyses

Damage as repair rates per km, for natural gas lines in Istanbul districts

Tools for analysis: damage scenarios

19-20 July 2007 – Belgirate, Italy LESSLOSS Final Workshop

12

A

A'

K'

K

LegendRR/km

0,000 - 0,015

0,015 - 0,04

0,04 - 0,07

0,07 - 0,1

0,1 - 0,227

0,227 - 0,3

Water distribution system

Section A-A' (along metro

Section K'-K

1D ground response 2D ground response

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

x [m]

RR

PGV [r

epai

r/km

]

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

x [m]

RRε xx

[rep

air/k

m]

M. O'Rourke & Deyoe, 2004: RR=513 PGS0.89

M. O'Rourke and Ayala 1993: RR=0.0001 PGV2.25

T. O'Rourke & Jeon 1999: RR=0.001 PGV1.22

ALA 2001: RR=0.0024 PGV

K’ K

Selected damage scenario applications: Thessaloniki water distribution system

19-20 July 2007 – Belgirate, Italy LESSLOSS Final Workshop

EarthquakeEarthquake Location and Location and MagnitudeMagnitude availableavailable in few in few secondsseconds

A conceptual representation of the SOSEWIN people centered early warning system

TowardsTowards a people a people centeredcentered mobile Early Warning Systemmobile Early Warning System

Instrumentally derived intensities (left) and macroseismic (MCS) intensities (right) in Abruzzo region after the Mw 6.3 (ML 5.8) April, 6, 2009 earthquake. The two maps are very similar, but the instrumental one can be obtained within a few minutes from the event.

AlarmAlarm MapsMaps and and GroundGround Shake Shake mapsmaps availableavailable in few in few minutesminutes

centuries decades days Seconds minutes

hours days

weeks years

Long term Time independent

Medium term Time dependent

Short term Earthquake in process

Post-crisis Alert state

Post-crisis recovery

geosciences Global/regional Hazard fault cycle Precursors Early warning Shake maps

Causative fault identification

Reassesment of hazard

engineering -Building codes -Physical vulnerability -Strengthening

Time dependent vulnerability Strengthening

Strctural controls

Early warning Loss estimates

Casualties, Damage assessment Vulnerability change

-Physical vulnerability - Mitigation countermeasures - reconstruction - Building codes

Social and economical

Time dependent exposure estimate, including cost Information, education, prepardness

Time dependent exposure estimate Information, education

Information Resilience

Resilience recovery

before afterEarthquake time

THE FUTURE

• Europe has a high-tech sesmic and accerometric network with a spatialdensity comparable to Japan or California

• Better coordination and data compatibilitycan provide high quality informationrelevant to risk reduction policies;

• EC is pursuing this objective through Infrastructure programs;

• EPOS can be a tool for this

BIG ISSUE FOR THE FUTURE

Predictability• Intermediate and short term earthquake

occurrence (fault interaction, robust statisticalmodels, precursors etc)

• Ground shaking• Vulnerability (time dependence and systemic

aspects)• Real time seismology and early warning

including automatic applications